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Predict the date of Trout's new extension with the Angels


Docwaukee

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4 hours ago, ettin said:

Well to get him to $500M in total career earnings he needs to sign an 8-year, $356M extension that begins at the end of his current contract, so that is where I have now landed. Previously I quoted 12 years, $500M so it is quite shy of that in-total but still rewards Trout for being the best player in the game.

Oh and he will sign it shortly after Harper cements his deal to ensure that he gets paid more than Bryce.

Shouldn't he sign it first (Machado and Arenado already effectively set the market) so Bryce loses any shot at a record contract?

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1 hour ago, Sean-Regan said:

Shouldn't he sign it first (Machado and Arenado already effectively set the market) so Bryce loses any shot at a record contract?

I would think that Trout and his agent want to ensure Mike is paid significantly more than Harper and the only way to make sure that happens is to let Harper sign first.

Also why does Trout want to sh*t on another players market, it is not like Mike is a competing free agent right now?

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3 hours ago, ettin said:

I would think that Trout and his agent want to ensure Mike is paid significantly more than Harper and the only way to make sure that happens is to let Harper sign first.

Also why does Trout want to sh*t on another players market, it is not like Mike is a competing free agent right now?

Fair on the second although I doubt they’d care all that much either way, but Bryce’s max appears to be about 330 at this point, and may end up being less if he signs in a more preferred location than Philly. 

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10 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

holding for the biggest contract in baseball is more about ego than money. IMO

When you're getting paid as much as they are a few million here or there really is not going to make that big of a difference in your life.

I agree. But in Trout's case, there really is no reason not to A) wait for Harper, and B} ask for the highest total contract and AAV.

I suspect that whatever Harper gets, Trout will get about $5M more per year. So Harper gets 10/$350M, Trout should get 10/400M (2019-20). If Harper gets 10/$375M, Trout might get more like 10/$425M.

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36 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree. But in Trout's case, there really is no reason not to A) wait for Harper, and B} ask for the highest total contract and AAV.

I suspect that whatever Harper gets, Trout will get about $5M more per year. So Harper gets 10/$350M, Trout should get 10/400M (2019-20). If Harper gets 10/$375M, Trout might get more like 10/$425M.

With Machado and Arenado done and Harper's relative value set, I see little likelihood that Harper makes 400. He tops out, imo, at 350, and I'm skeptical anyone offers that (possible exception of Philly, I guess). But who knows.

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Time to re-calibrate?

I'll say next Friday, March 8. 

Machado got 10/$300M, an AAV of $30M. Harper got 13/$330M, an AAV of $25.4M.

What complicates things is Trout getting 13 years and a lower AAV than expected.

But it is hard imagining Trout not getting the highest AAV ever. $35M does the trick. I think the Angels give him 10/$350M added onto his current contract, so 12/$418M through his age 39 season. They might have gotten away with adding 8 years for 10 total, but I think Harper's contract gets him an extra couple years.

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13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

How much would would you add on to the end of Trout's contract to avoid an opt out?  

instead of 8/350 with an opt out, would you do 10/375 and no opt out?  

 

Yes, but I’d prefer the contract to be front loaded.  

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While I think the Phillies are still a possibility I'll go with March 27th, 2019. It will be for 11 years/ 415 million, w/ an opt-out after 4. They will sell him on the young players/farm, along w/ spending on FA once Albert's contract is off the books. 

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