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A dollars and cents look at the Astros, moving forward.


WeatherWonk

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MLBTR, in their continuing look at the payroll of all the clubs, got around to the Astros this week. The article has lots of nuts and bolts and even makes some predictions. A fair amount of speculation about them landing Harper, though this was before the "latest", never-ending rumor cycle about Harper and the Phillies. Kind of an out of left field speculation to me, with regards to Harper. Yes, they almost traded for him at the non-waiver deadline last year..........could they be the latest "mystery team" supposedly in on Harper?

It also addresses the outlook of ownership on salaries;  based on what Crane has said over the past few months.

Unfortunately, the article didnt really address the potential of when Whitley and Tucker might fit in, though it did mention them.  And there's really no mention of the possibility of extending Verlander and/or Cole;  which the owner or GM has talked about recently. But these articles really address existing contracts more than anything.

They should be very strong again this year, of course, but should be considerably weaker in 2020. While their offense should remain solid, they could potentially lose Verlander, Cole, Pressly, Joe Smith (injured right now), Rondon, Miley, McHugh and Harris. Basically, their vaunted bullpen would be reduced to Osuna and Devenski. Of potential starters, they would presumably have Peacock, James, Whitley, Valdez.

This is what the AL West is up against. Have a read. Have a take. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/houston-astros

 

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9 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

MLBTR, in their continuing look at the payroll of all the clubs, got around to the Astros this week. The article has lots of nuts and bolts and even makes some predictions. A fair amount of speculation about them landing Harper, though this was before the "latest", never-ending rumor cycle about Harper and the Phillies. Kind of an out of left field speculation to me, with regards to Harper. Yes, they almost traded for him at the non-waiver deadline last year..........could they be the latest "mystery team" supposedly in on Harper?

It also addresses the outlook of ownership on salaries;  based on what Crane has said over the past few months.

Unfortunately, the article didnt really address the potential of when Whitley and Tucker might fit in, though it did mention them.  And there's really no mention of the possibility of extending Verlander and/or Cole;  which the owner or GM has talked about recently. But these articles really address existing contracts more than anything.

They should be very strong again this year, of course, but should be considerably weaker in 2020. While their offense should remain solid, they could potentially lose Verlander, Cole, Pressly, Joe Smith (injured right now), Rondon, Miley, McHugh and Harris. Basically, their vaunted bullpen would be reduced to Osuna and Devenski. Of potential starters, they would presumably have Peacock, James, Whitley, Valdez.

This is what the AL West is up against. Have a read. Have a take. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/houston-astros

 

I think they resign Verlander and he will be the guy that helps them transition to Whitley and Valdez.  I think Cole will leave in free agency and sign with the Padres, Angels, Dodgers or Yankees.  

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Verlander - 28 M
Cole - 13.5 M
Pressley - 2.9 M
Joe smith - 8M
Rondon - 4.5 M
Miley - 4.5 M
McHugh - 5.8 M
Harris - 4.5 M
Total - 71+ M

They may be losing a lot, but thats an awful lot to turn around and re-spend even assuming they lose all that, which i suspect they will not. 

Will they be as good as they are today, no probably not well have to see how things play out but lets not kid ourselves into think they are going to fall back to an 85 win team anytime soon with the farm they have coming up.   Honestly if im them i try to keep Cole over Verlander, he may not have the name or resume, but hes got the numbers and is significantly younger and give them more financial flexibility.

They won 103 last year, are projected in the mid 90s this year, i dont see them being that much worse than that in '20 pending losses and what they chose to resign.   We need to improve about 10 games from where we are today to challenge them in the next 2-3 years.

Side note, they have some pretty amazing bargains on that list.

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20 minutes ago, floplag said:

Verlander - 28 M
Cole - 13.5 M
Pressley - 2.9 M
Joe smith - 8M
Rondon - 4.5 M
Miley - 4.5 M
McHugh - 5.8 M
Harris - 4.5 M
Total - 71+ M

They may be losing a lot, but thats an awful lot to turn around and re-spend even assuming they lose all that, which i suspect they will not. 

Will they be as good as they are today, no probably not well have to see how things play out but lets not kid ourselves into think they are going to fall back to an 85 win team anytime soon with the farm they have coming up.   Honestly if im them i try to keep Cole over Verlander, he may not have the name or resume, but hes got the numbers and is significantly younger and give them more financial flexibility.

They won 103 last year, are projected in the mid 90s this year, i dont see them being that much worse than that in '20 pending losses and what they chose to resign.   We need to improve about 10 games from where we are today to challenge them in the next 2-3 years.

Side note, they have some pretty amazing bargains on that list.

They are paying 9.5 to altuve this year and will pay him almost 30m next year.  They've also got some decent arb increases.  I agree that they'll keep Verlander.  Probably for about 20m per.  That actually doesn't leave them with much to spend in 2020 if they do that.  

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19 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

They are paying 9.5 to altuve this year and will pay him almost 30m next year.  They've also got some decent arb increases.  I agree that they'll keep Verlander.  Probably for about 20m per.  That actually doesn't leave them with much to spend in 2020 if they do that.  

True... but it will be enough to replace some of the lost pitching, especially if they keep Cole over Verlander.  
Im just saying it isnt like they are going to suddenly be average. 

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19 hours ago, Dochalo said:

They are paying 9.5 to altuve this year and will pay him almost 30m next year.  They've also got some decent arb increases.  I agree that they'll keep Verlander.  Probably for about 20m per.  That actually doesn't leave them with much to spend in 2020 if they do that.  

A bit of a fudge. They will pay Altuve 26 mil next year. An extra four mil buys a lot, suddenly.

But floplag's numbers are off, too, as the article points out that the Astros are only paying Verlander 20 mil this year. 8 mil is paid by Detroit. So their freed up money is off by 8 mil..

For both the Astros and the Angels, 2019 is the year to find out if kids can replace expensive arb and impending FA players, going forward. The Astros will lose more players but still retain many good players. 

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1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

I wouldn't re-sign Verlander at his age. At some point you gotta find the "next" guy.

Well, the next Verlander doesnt come along very often. He has established a relationship with HInch and the Astros NOW. If he has another great season and is willing to take a reasonable offer, why not bring him back? Cole is much younger and will want many more years, so he'll be much more expensive.

Besides, the Astros have some guys just hitting the bigs now that could be a cost-effective replacement for Verlander or Cole. Not as dominant, right away, of course. Valdez, Whitley (who pitched two perfect innings today), James. Probably 2 years away are Corbin Martin and Bryan Abreu. 

Now, if the Astros win the WS again, maybe they just let him walk and concentrate on the future. Or maybe they look at the rest of the AL West to see how far they've progressed and see if he is even needed to win the division again.

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