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Eleven things I am hopeful of for the 2019 season


Dochalo

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Of course I want the team to make the playoffs.  That's first and foremost.  I think that goes without saying.  

But there are a few individual performances I'd like to see that I consider very important for this team going forward.  

1.  The one year deals and/or expiring contracts - if they perform well, we'll either make the playoffs or have some valuable trade chips at the deadline.  

2. Tyler Skaggs - this is his year.  He made 19 starts with a 2.62 era last year in 110 ip through July 25th.  From that point he was injured and made 5 more starts with an era of 14.09.  in 15ip.  

3.. Taylor Ward - He had an inauspicious major league debut after destroying minor league pitching.  I cannot emphasize the importance of a 3 win 3bman coming out of our farm system at league min.  Maybe the odds aren't great but his success might be one of the most important things to happen.  

4.  The bullpen - in particular Buttrey and Anderson.  We need to see that Eppler's plan for the pen is gonna work. 

5.  Luis Rengifo - it's not only important for him to take over 2b, he needs to be our lead off hitter of the future 

6.  Jo Adell - he needs to show that he's worthy of taking over for Calhoun regardless of how well Kole does.  

7.  Griffin Canning - he doesn't need to be an ace, but he needs to show that he's got the potential to be a #2.  Maybe it takes a couple of years, but at least league avg production to start would be a big step.  

8.  Shohei Ohtani - that he can do what he did last year. 

9.  the farm system - takes another step forward.  With a couple guys making big steps.  Particularly a couple of pitchers.  

10.  Billy Eppler - much of what will determine his 2019 success is already pre-ordained.  But another good draft, a good intl haul, some timely/appropriate trades and some worthy extensions will keep us on the right path

11.  Brad Ausmus - this one goes to eleven.  don't do much.  In other words, do what you're supposed to and don't get on the radar for the wrong reasons.  

 

 

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It is a very good list

I literally have zero cares about the mercenaries, im not invested in them, no reason to be.   I hope they do well, but whether they do or not they wont be here in 20 so... meh. 

Skaggs, yeah, its his time to step up and become the ace we need. 

Ward, i think he will be a large determining factor in how far we go.  If he tanks, the void at the position grows substantially. 

I am actually very high on the bullpen this year, it should make a 5 game difference alone in my view.  Its really the sole reason i think we can win 86.

The kids, well i doubt we see any of them till the second half, but it will be very interesting to see how they do in terms of readiness for 20. 

Ohtani getting back to being what he was is critical.  Do not rush him, period.  

The farm must take large steps, or were in deep doodoo since that is what we are banking on to move forward

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9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Of course I want the team to make the playoffs.  That's first and foremost.  I think that goes without saying.  

But there are a few individual performances I'd like to see that I consider very important for this team going forward.  

1.  The one year deals and/or expiring contracts - if they perform well, we'll either make the playoffs or have some valuable trade chips at the deadline.  

2. Tyler Skaggs - this is his year.  He made 19 starts with a 2.62 era last year in 110 ip through July 25th.  From that point he was injured and made 5 more starts with an era of 14.09.  in 15ip.  

3.. Taylor Ward - He had an inauspicious major league debut after destroying minor league pitching.  I cannot emphasize the importance of a 3 win 3bman coming out of our farm system at league min.  Maybe the odds aren't great but his success might be one of the most important things to happen.  

4.  The bullpen - in particular Buttrey and Anderson.  We need to see that Eppler's plan for the pen is gonna work. 

5.  Luis Rengifo - it's not only important for him to take over 2b, he needs to be our lead off hitter of the future 

6.  Jo Adell - he needs to show that he's worthy of taking over for Calhoun regardless of how well Kole does.  

7.  Griffin Canning - he doesn't need to be an ace, but he needs to show that he's got the potential to be a #2.  Maybe it takes a couple of years, but at least league avg production to start would be a big step.  

8.  Shohei Ohtani - that he can do what he did last year. 

9.  the farm system - takes another step forward.  With a couple guys making big steps.  Particularly a couple of pitchers.  

10.  Billy Eppler - much of what will determine his 2019 success is already pre-ordained.  But another good draft, a good intl haul, some timely/appropriate trades and some worthy extensions will keep us on the right path

11.  Brad Ausmus - this one goes to eleven.  don't do much.  In other words, do what you're supposed to and don't get on the radar for the wrong reasons.  

 

 

In violent agreement over #5. I think out of all of our options, Rengifo as our 2B of the future makes a ton of sense. Jones can still improve, Fletcher is a passable option, but Luis feels like the right guy to me at this moment.

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9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

This would be my #1, even before making the playoffs:

1. Trout signs an extension.

Why before the playoffs? Because it will greatly increase the chances of making the playoffs.

But nice list.

I mentioned season and not off season.  But I agree it would be #1 by far if I included all of 2019.  

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14 minutes ago, ettin said:

In violent agreement over #5. I think out of all of our options, Rengifo as our 2B of the future makes a ton of sense. Jones can still improve, Fletcher is a passable option, but Luis feels like the right guy to me at this moment.

and I think there's some flexibility there.  If Rengifo secures 2b for the future then Jones could always be a candidate to move to LF if Upton can be shifted to 1b.  If Rengifo become a good lead off hitter then I wouldn't be opposed to parking him at 3b and giving Jones the shot at 2b.  Or if Simmons doesn't stay then Rengifo could move to SS (although I'm not sure that's a long term solution as his defense will likely be mediocre there).  

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I'd like to see Rengifo start getting some reps in at 3B.  Quite frankly, I don't believe Zack Cozart is very good, I don't think Taylor Ward's adjustments will be quick enough to keep them afloat at the position, and I do believe this team would be better if they could somehow infuse Rengifo's OBP and presence into the top of the lineup AND Jahmai Jones strong all around game in at 2B. 

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10 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'd like to see Rengifo start getting some reps in at 3B.  Quite frankly, I don't believe Zack Cozart is very good, I don't think Taylor Ward's adjustments will be quick enough to keep them afloat at the position, and I do believe this team would be better if they could somehow infuse Rengifo's OBP and presence into the top of the lineup AND Jahmai Jones strong all around game in at 2B. 

This may be the way things go in the long run, but I think the Angels first need to see how--and if--Jones develops; there's still a chance his poor-to-mediocre performance last year is indicative of him hitting his ceiling rather than what we all hope, which is that it was merely a bump in the road as he re-adjusted to 2B. I'd say the chances are 70/30, which is still large enough that he may not be more than a future utility player. But probably he'll take a step forward and be at least an above average regular in the major leagues.

Secondly, while my gut tells me that Ward may be a quad-A type, he still deserves the benefit of the doubt. I see it as roughly 50/50 chance that he's at least an average regular third baseman vs. a platoon/bench/quad A type.

The default is that we see Cozart/Fletcher/La Stella on Opening Day, with Ward/Rengifo back in AAA. But I hope we're surprised.

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16 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

This may be the way things go in the long run, but I think the Angels first need to see how--and if--Jones develops; there's still a chance his poor-to-mediocre performance last year is indicative of him hitting his ceiling rather than what we all hope, which is that it was merely a bump in the road as he re-adjusted to 2B. I'd say the chances are 70/30, which is still large enough that he may not be more than a future utility player. But probably he'll take a step forward and be at least an above average regular in the major leagues.

Secondly, while my gut tells me that Ward may be a quad-A type, he still deserves the benefit of the doubt. I see it as roughly 50/50 chance that he's at least an average regular third baseman vs. a platoon/bench/quad A type.

The default is that we see Cozart/Fletcher/La Stella on Opening Day, with Ward/Rengifo back in AAA. But I hope we're surprised.

Ward definitely has some delta in his L/R splits in the minors and even in his short stint in mlb last year.  So being a future platoon guy is probably the most likely.  

I am sure the roster will shake out as you mentioned.  

I wouldn't mind seeing them try Fletcher in the OF so they don't have to waste a roster spot on a guy like Bourjos.  I bet he could chip in in CF if needed.  

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Great read Doc!

You guys are a little more positive of Ward and this Rengifo kid than I am.  Renigfo sounds like numerous Rondons from the past. A little Slappy, a little speedy, with a glove.

Ward I don't see it. But, I am allowed my opinion as are you. I hope we are both wrong and he becomes our 3Bman for the next 15+ years. A Perennial All Star and hits .300+ with 30+ Bombs while driving in 100RBI per year. While supplying GG Defense.

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4 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Great read Doc!

You guys are a little more positive of Ward and this Rengifo kid than I am.  Renigfo sounds like numerous Rondons from the past. A little Slappy, a little speedy, with a glove.

Ward I don't see it. But, I am allowed my opinion as are you. I hope we are both wrong and he becomes our 3Bman for the next 15+ years and hits .300+ with 30+ Bombs while driving in 100RBI per year. While supplying GG Defense.

The main difference with Rengifo, and what has a lot of us excited, is the plate discipline. If he can hit .270 he’ll be a good lead off man (.350+ OBP); if he can hit .290, he’ll be a star leadoff man (.380+ OBP).

As for Ward, I highly doubt he ever hits .300/30, but it isn’t outside of the realm of possibility that he hits .270/20. 

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6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The main difference with Rengifo, and what has a lot of us excited, is the plate discipline. If he can hit .270 he’ll be a good lead off man (.350+ OBP); if he can hit .290, he’ll be a star leadoff man (.380+ OBP).

As for Ward, I highly doubt he ever hits .300/30, but it isn’t outside of the realm of possibility that he hits .270/20. 

What were all the Rodons AVG's and OBP in the minors..... Same! Same skillsets, same abilities, same prognostications, rinse repeat different year  insert   "____Rondon Name Here___". Plate discipline doesn't always translate to the bigs when you have been going up against kids that may have a few of the pitches but not all required at the next level.

 

Ward is closer to .250 or less with an AVG of 10-15 Bombs and an OBP in the low .300's not higher than the Trumbo's or Cron's of years past. And I really see more like Mathisn't type #'s

 

 

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9 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

What were all the Rodons AVG's and OBP in the minors..... Same! Same skillsets, same abilities, same prognostications, rinse repeat different year  insert   "____Rondon Name Here___". Plate discipline doesn't always translate to the bigs when you have been going up against kids that may have a few of the pitches but not all required at the next level.

Ward is closer to .250 or less with an AVG of 10-15 Bombs and an OBP in the low .300's not higher than the Trumbo's or Cron's of years past. And I really see more like Mathisn't type #'s

We shall see. I see something a bit more in Rengifo.

As for Ward, I'm not predicting he actually hits .270/20, just that it could happen. .250/15 is more likely, which means he'll end up as a platoon guy.

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1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Ward definitely has some delta in his L/R splits in the minors and even in his short stint in mlb last year.  So being a future platoon guy is probably the most likely.  

I am sure the roster will shake out as you mentioned.  

I wouldn't mind seeing them try Fletcher in the OF so they don't have to waste a roster spot on a guy like Bourjos.  I bet he could chip in in CF if needed.  

I'm still hoping we see something more from Hermosillo. But chances are that Bourjos or Jarret Parker starts the year as the 4th outfielder and Herm gets regular play in AAA.

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3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm still hoping we see something more from Hermosillo. But chances are that Bourjos or Jarret Parker starts the year as the 4th outfielder and Herm gets regular play in AAA.

It will be Parker who can play the Corners and is a LEFTY with some POP and if Trout needs a day off Kole or J-UP can play CF for a single game.

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4 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Great read Doc!

You guys are a little more positive of Ward and this Rengifo kid than I am.  Renigfo sounds like numerous Rondons from the past. A little Slappy, a little speedy, with a glove.

Ward I don't see it. But, I am allowed my opinion as are you. I hope we are both wrong and he becomes our 3Bman for the next 15+ years and hits .300+ with 30+ Bombs while driving in 100RBI per year. While supplying GG Defense.

The main difference with Rengifo, and what has a lot of us excited, is the plate discipline. If he can hit .270 he’ll be a good lead off man (.350+ OBP); if he can hit .290, he’ll be a star leadoff man (.380+ OBP).

As for Ward, I highly doubt he ever hits .300/30, but it isn’t outside of the realm of possibility that he hits .270/20. 

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Andrew Romine  ---- 

.287 .367 .391 .758

Luis Martinez ----- 

.309 .334 .495 .829

Alexi Amarista ----- 

292 .337 .419 .755


Freddy Sandoval ------ 

.280 .337 .414 .751


Sean Rodriguez ----- 

.299 .400 .616 1.017


Jean Segura -----  

.421 .421 .526 .947

BWOOD ------ 

.293 .353 .557 .910


Jose Rondon ----- 

.293 .359 .399 .757

 

Overall, it hasn't been an exact science and we've had more meh than decent to good home grown talent in a very long time coming from middle infielders. Yes, this is historical. Yes, this isn't perfect. I just see the same type of minor league stats as you allude to Rengifo ~   the OBP% at the minor league level and you say plate discipline but he walked and struck out 75 times each last year which equates to 50/50 which still could go either way. 

Also, interesting is by these examples of OBP of less than .350 doesn't equate to a very long or productive Major League Career by these examples as none did anything above AAA or AAAA players.

Exception Segura! whose OBP was above .420 in AAA....3

I would love for one of the Stat geeks on here to do up a spread sheet that shows minor league stats to = a solid, avg, or meh MLB career. Which should taper expectations and give us really someone to compare these kids too..... Who has either come up and failed or succeeded previously.

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3 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Andrew Romine  ---- 

.287 .367 .391 .758

Luis Martinez ----- 

.309 .334 .495 .829

Alexi Amarista ----- 

292 .337 .419 .755


Freddy Sandoval ------ 

.280 .337 .414 .751


Sean Rodriguez ----- 

.299 .400 .616 1.017


Jean Segura -----  

.421 .421 .526 .947

BWOOD ------ 

.293 .353 .557 .910


Jose Rondon ----- 

.293 .359 .399 .757

 

Overall, it hasn't been an exact science and we've had more meh than decent to good home grown talent in a very long time coming from middle infielders. Yes, this is historical. Yes, this isn't perfect. I just see the same type of minor league stats as you allude to Rengifo ~   the OBP% at the minor league level and you say plate discipline but he walked and struck out 75 times each last year which equates to 50/50 which still could go either way. 

Also, interesting is by these examples of OBP of less than .350 doesn't equate to a very long or productive Major League Career by these examples as none did anything above AAA or AAAA players.

Exception Segura! whose OBP was above .420 in AAA....3

I would love for one of the Stat geeks on here to do up a spread sheet that shows minor league stats to = a solid, avg, or meh MLB career. Which should taper expectations and give us really someone to compare these kids too..... Who has either come up and failed or succeeded previously.

A comp for Rengifo is someone you didn't mention.  

I think he's a more modern version of Callaspo.  More walks.  More k's.  But he also has way more speed. ;[  

He actually approximated a bunch of those typical slappy util (pun intended) types that you mentioned.  At least until 2018.  The big 'if' for him is if his 2018 was a true breakout or just a good year.  I tend to believe in it a bit more when it's a 21yo doing it at AA and above.  He figured something out for sure.  We'll have to see if it translates.  

I don't think he's Jean Segura but I am betting he's a solid avg 2bman who's biggest asset is his obp.  

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