Dont hold your breath on an Angels-Arenado signing next year

[AngelsLakersFan]

39 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Man some of you guys gotta at least try some positivity once in a while. It feels pretty good and it costs you nothing.

Does dignity mean nothing to you?

 

You probably don't need to answer that.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

2 hours ago, WeatherWonk said:

I never realized that Houston is banned from signing extensions for some of their best players, while the Angels are a lock to sign Trout to an extension. Oh yeah, and a pitcher coming off TJ surgery is the "next big thing" the following year. 

Thankfully, I read AW to learn all this.

Collin McHugh, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley, and Lance McCullers Jr. are all free agents next year. What are the odds they sign or extend all 5 of them.

Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Aledmys Diaz, Jake Marisnick, George Springer, are going to get big raises in arbitration next year.

Sure they can sign or extend them but they didn't sign Morton and Keuchel is still unsigned. They can't afford as much as some other teams,

[Stradling]

23 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Collin McHugh, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley, and Lance McCullers Jr. are all free agents next year. What are the odds they sign or extend all 5 of them.

Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Aledmys Diaz, Jake Marisnick, George Springer, are going to get big raises in arbitration next year.

Sure they can sign or extend them but they didn't sign Morton and Keuchel is still unsigned. They can't afford as much as some other teams,

My opinion is they will extend Lance McCullers and Justin Verlander.  

[Docwaukee]

13 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Collin McHugh, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley, and Lance McCullers Jr. are all free agents next year. What are the odds they sign or extend all 5 of them.

Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Aledmys Diaz, Jake Marisnick, George Springer, are going to get big raises in arbitration next year.

Sure they can sign or extend them but they didn't sign Morton and Keuchel is still unsigned. They can't afford as much as some other teams,

I think we all know that the Astros aren't completely going away any time soon and I think the Angels know this as well.  Yet I doubt it's their motivation for doing what they are.  

The Angels are building from within because it's the most sustainable model for long term success.  I do think the Angels ultimately have more spending power so when the time is right, they have make some move the Astros can't afford.  

But the Astros have shown to be a really smart/savvy org.  They could be going balls out with FA signings or trades right now but they've got a recent WS and likely want to maintain a consistent open window for success.  That should tell you a lot about Keuchel actually.  He could help them right now but they don't want to see what that contract looks like in 3 or 4 years.  

As mentioned, Cole is a FA after this year.  He'll be a highly sought after target who I am sure the Halos would be in on if he doesn't get extended.  Verlander is 36.  He's gonna regress at some point.   

They've already got Altuve long term at 30m per.  It will be interesting to see how well he ages.  Maybe I'm biased, but his decline might be pretty sharp.  

After 2020, they've got Altuve, one year of Correa, two years of Bregman, one year of McCullers.  I am sure they'll keep a couple of their current players and they've got a good farm.  

If we extend Trout and Simmons and along with Ohtani we've got a similar core.  We've also got a good farm.  

So starting as early as next year, the division could start being a dogfight between the Astros, Angels and A's for the next 3 or 4 years.  

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, Stradling said:

My opinion is they will extend Lance McCullers and Justin Verlander.  

Verlander is entering the category that only very few pitchers have been able to pull off which is maintaining ace level production into his late 30's.  A bunch of the age 36 and older ace level seasons were accomplished during the steroid era by guys like RJ, Schilling, Clemens, Smoltz and then you've got guys like Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton as well as a couple knuckleballers like Niekro and Perry.  Not implying that RJ, Schilling or Smoltz were roiders, but outside of Clemens and the knucklers, those other guys were freaks of nature.  

Verlander is a special player and certainly in the HOF discussion but I'm not sure he's in the same category as any of those other guys sans maybe Smoltz or Schilling.  

I would welcome the Astros to find out.  

I know it's a big wish, but I really think Cole would be a great fit on our team next year.  I hope they don't extend him.  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

27 minutes ago, Stradling said:

My opinion is they will extend Lance McCullers and Justin Verlander.  

No matter what Houston does next season their payroll is going up big time to keep the talent they accumulated over the years from being a consistent 100+ loss team.

[floplag]

15 hours ago, Stradling said:

You are the first one to talk about the higher you draft the better chance you have of getting better players in the first and second rounds.   This is year four of us drafting higher and getting better talent.  

Which wont show fruit for a number of years and we still mid pack draft wise.   Sure it will help, as ive said and of course agree with, but certainly not on the near term. 
Ive asked before and generally gotten a lot of vague answers, so ill ask again... when are we actually planning to compete?  Are we talking 21?  25?   
Go on record, name a year when you think this magic happens.   

[floplag]

15 hours ago, Dochalo said:

to me it's less about Houston getting weaker and more about the Angels getting stronger.  

I do think it's going to be tough for Houston to sustain 100 win seasons for the foreseeable future and they'll drop back to the point where we'll be in a position to start competing for the division when you include prospects and FA signings.  

We can start being a 90+ win team next year and vie for the division but most likely it will be starting in 2021 or maybe even 2022.  

We got a small taste of what it was like to have a reasonably healthy pitching staff last year through Jun 9th when we went 37-28.  That likely wouldn't have gotten us to the playoffs last year but I think that's the type of baseball this team is capable should key components stay off the IL.  

Maybe we continue to be unlucky in regards to injury and that would suck.  Not much you can do if that happens.  

My point is that we'll at least be in the conversation again soon for a division title as long as we stay on the current path.  It might end up a dogfight with Houston and even Oakland on a yearly basis, but I think we'll win our fair share very soon.  

 

And how do we do that with basically equal farm systems?
Also please define soon. 

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Which wont show fruit for a number of years and we still mid pack draft wise.   Sure it will help, as ive said and of course agree with, but certainly not on the near term. 
Ive asked before and generally gotten a lot of vague answers, so ill ask again... when are we actually planning to compete?  Are we talking 21?  25?   
Go on record, name a year when you think this magic happens.   

You can keep asking us when we plan to compete but we don’t know what the Angels plans are, we speculate.  We very well could compete this year, just like the A’s and Mariners competed last year.  Or like the Twins and Rays.  It is all a process and lately using that process we saw something in Doug White and brought him over from a team we were chasing.  When we did that we also continued to collect hard throwing pitchers and it is easy to speculate that Doug White had some input on the types of guys he thinks he can help, like he did with all of those pitchers in Houston.  As for it not paying off for a number of years, we are going to start seeing that wave this year and going forward.  It won’t be perfect, we did draft Thiass one draft pick ahead of them drafting Whitley.  But the same could be said that if Adell really is the number #2 rated prospect and we drafted him 10th that the Angels are turning the corner and not just drafting the right guy but developing them at a rapid pace as well.  

[Lou]

what exactly does "compete" mean?

[AngelsLakersFan]

I was hoping for a stronger push this offseason but from the looks of things this team is going to have a lot more pieces to play with next season. Depending on how things work out this year I expect to be very bullish on next year's squad. With the first crop of young players graduating onto the team, and a lot of money freed up there should be no excuses next year. 

Obviously we are quite a ways out, but my feeling is that next year will probably be the best team we have had in the Trout era.

[floplag]

29 minutes ago, Stradling said:

You can keep asking us when we plan to compete but we don’t know what the Angels plans are, we speculate.  We very well could compete this year, just like the A’s and Mariners competed last year.  Or like the Twins and Rays.  It is all a process and lately using that process we saw something in Doug White and brought him over from a team we were chasing.  When we did that we also continued to collect hard throwing pitchers and it is easy to speculate that Doug White had some input on the types of guys he thinks he can help, like he did with all of those pitchers in Houston.  As for it not paying off for a number of years, we are going to start seeing that wave this year and going forward.  It won’t be perfect, we did draft Thiass one draft pick ahead of them drafting Whitley.  But the same could be said that if Adell really is the number #2 rated prospect and we drafted him 10th that the Angels are turning the corner and not just drafting the right guy but developing them at a rapid pace as well.  

And thats what i was asking you to do, speculate.  As usual I got the usual cover all possible angles misdirection response that avoids answering a very simple direct question.  
We both know you dont believe thats possible in 19 without Hou completely collapsing and every gamble weve taken paying off at 100-1.
ill ask again, in what year do we make up that ground enough to be more aggressive.  A simple year is all im asking you to guess on. 

[Docwaukee]

56 minutes ago, floplag said:

And how do we do that with basically equal farm systems?
Also please define soon. 

It's not about our farm vs. theirs or anyone else's.  It's about how we can use our own farm to make the team better.  

I know you don't believe it, but I think they're going to add one of the top FA starters next year.  

As soon as next year we'll be in a better position to start making a run at the division.  But most likely 2021 and beyond.  

Enjoy the ride.  It's gonna be fun when a bunch of home grown players are the main contributors to the team's success.  

[Docwaukee]

23 minutes ago, floplag said:

And thats what i was asking you to do, speculate.  As usual I got the usual cover all possible angles misdirection response that avoids answering a very simple direct question.  
We both know you dont believe thats possible in 19 without Hou completely collapsing and every gamble weve taken paying off at 100-1.
ill ask again, in what year do we make up that ground enough to be more aggressive.  A simple year is all im asking you to guess on. 

I'll give you an idea of what I am hoping for:

2019:  maybe grab a 2nd wild card.  If not, move guys on 1yr deals.  Get a look at Adell, Canning, Suarez, Rengifo.  Normal farm progression with one or two breakouts.  Another solid draft.  A Trout extension.  In terms of specific players, I am hopeful yet not overly optimistic that Ward can become an everyday player.  I think Herm can become a nice 4th OFer.  I think one of Fletcher or Rengifo will grab a starting spot at 2b.  I think Skaggs will develop into a solid #2 and maybe a borderline #1.  

2020:  We get Ohtani back on the mound and give him 25 or so starts.  Rengifo is the everyday 2bman.  We play the service time game with Adell and he comes up in mid to late April and take the job from Herm who is filling in.  We add Gerritt Cole in the off season.  Heaney continues to pitch like a #3.  We go back to a 6 man rotation with Skaggs, Heaney and Cole making normal starts almost every 5th day and Ohtani, Barria, Suarez, Canning, Sandoval filling in the rest.  Pujols announces 2020 will be his final year.  We continue to piecemeal at C.  The bullpen becomes a strength.  We extend Simmons.  One of Thaiss or Ward become an everyday player (hopefully Ward).  Another good draft and appropriate farm development.  Marsh and Jones get major league time.  We win 92 games and the 2nd WC.  

2021:  We re-sign Skaggs.  We now have a bunch of high ceiling prospects in the upper minors ready to fill gaps at the major league level or to function as trade bait.  
Rotation: Ohtani, Cole, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Canning, Suarez, Sandoval, Rodriguez, Soriano, Tropeano, Bradish, Hernandez etc
Bullpen: Buttrey, Middleton, Anderson, JCR, Pena, Jewell, Walsh (LHer), Jerez, Cam, Robles, Meyer plus other farm hands that will emerge 
C - FA/Trade, Kruger, Smith
1b - Upton, Thaiss Ward, FA/Trade, Walsh
2b - Rengifo, Fletcher, Jones
3b - Ward, Fletcher, FA/Trade
SS - Simmons, Rengifo, 
LF - Marsh, Upton, (Trout moves to LF maybe by then)
CF - Trout, Adell, Knowles
RF - Adell, Knowles, Marsh
DH - Ohtani 
4th OFer - Herm, Walsh, FA/Trade
Util - Fletcher, Rengifo
other prospects waiting in the wings - Adams, Jackson, Maitan and others.  

major salaries going to Trout, Skaggs, Upton, Simmons  and arb guys.   
 

[floplag]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

It's not about our farm vs. theirs or anyone else's.  It's about how we can use our own farm to make the team better.  

I know you don't believe it, but I think they're going to add one of the top FA starters next year.  

As soon as next year we'll be in a better position to start making a run at the division.  But most likely 2021 and beyond.  

Enjoy the ride.  It's gonna be fun when a bunch of home grown players are the main contributors to the team's success.  

Thank you for the answer, i agree with all of this actually.
But, for me it also comes down to what about the time between now and then that isnt part of the larger plan

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

Thank you for the answer, i agree with all of this actually.
But, for me it also comes down to what about the time between now and then that isnt part of the larger plan

I think you're gonna see a big difference next year when we get Ohtani back on the mound and sign one of the top FA pitchers.  My guess is we'll have a legit shot at the division.  

This year we've got a shot to make the playoffs.  You're gonna see a top 5 offense, good to very good pen.  The rotation is a huge mystery and will determine the fate of 2019.  

people forget that the biggest reason we've been a .500 team (or so) the last two years is injuries.  Otherwise we'd have probably won at least one WC spot and had a couple of 88-90 win seasons.  

[gurn67]

Why anybody, other than the Rockies, would want to throw 300+ million dollars for a guy who has a career .262 batting average and .787 OPS outside of Coors Canaveral is beyond me. Dude wouldn't come anywhere close to .787 OPS as the Big A, and a Gold Glove at 3B is only worth so much.

Simmons has put up OPS of .752 & .754 the last two years and has been the best defensive player in baseball, not just at shortstop, but the best defensive player at ANY position. How much you gonna pay him? He's only 1 1/2 years older than Arenado and plays a much more important defensive postion.

[floplag]

On 2/9/2019 at 5:38 PM, tdawg87 said:

Man some of you guys gotta at least try some positivity once in a while. It feels pretty good and it costs you nothing.

I realize some her portray me as debbie downer of late, and if im being honest thats at least marginally fair, but at this point after 3 years of being positive and getting positively squashed, im trying the other side of the street in hopes they will surpass my expectations. 
Even the optimist dont have any illusions about the club suggesting only that we have a chance at the second wild card.  
When the club gives me a reason to be optimistic again, ill happily go back to it, this is not that season.

[Docwaukee]

I wouldn't say I'm overly optimistic in regard to the team as much as I'm interested.  

A lot of things have my curiosity at the very least.  

Eppler has put a ton of stock is bounce backs and the farm.  Who are Bour, Harvey, Cahill, Cozart, Calhoun, Lucroy, Skaggs, Barria, Ward, Fletcher, Buttrey, Robles, Allen.  I'm excited to get a look at Suarez, Canning, Rengifo and other prospects.  

I am curious of the Doug White impact.  

How much is Pujols actually going to play.  

How will ausmus perform.  

When do we get to see Ohtani again and will he be as good as he was last year.

Everyone has the benefit of the doubt for now.  

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

I realize some her portray me as debbie downer of late, and if im being honest thats at least marginally fair, but at this point after 3 years of being positive and getting positively squashed, im trying the other side of the street in hopes they will surpass my expectations. 
Even the optimist dont have any illusions about the club suggesting only that we have a chance at the second wild card.  
When the club gives me a reason to be optimistic again, ill happily go back to it, this is not that season.

TBH I wasn't directing that post at you.

[floplag]

45 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

TBH I wasn't directing that post at you.

Thank you for that clarification.  Admittedly some here would and thats probably fair. 
In a time where i hoped they would be more aggressive and make use of the assets we have, they pulled back and went the complete other way.   

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Thank you for that clarification.  Admittedly some here would and thats probably fair. 
In a time where i hoped they would be more aggressive and make use of the assets we have, they pulled back and went the complete other way.   

That's fair. I felt that way when Heyward was available but in hindsight I'm glad they held back.

[Angel Oracle]

23 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I'll give you an idea of what I am hoping for:

2019:  maybe grab a 2nd wild card.  If not, move guys on 1yr deals.  Get a look at Adell, Canning, Suarez, Rengifo.  Normal farm progression with one or two breakouts.  Another solid draft.  A Trout extension.  In terms of specific players, I am hopeful yet not overly optimistic that Ward can become an everyday player.  I think Herm can become a nice 4th OFer.  I think one of Fletcher or Rengifo will grab a starting spot at 2b.  I think Skaggs will develop into a solid #2 and maybe a borderline #1.  

2020:  We get Ohtani back on the mound and give him 25 or so starts.  Rengifo is the everyday 2bman.  We play the service time game with Adell and he comes up in mid to late April and take the job from Herm who is filling in.  We add Gerritt Cole in the off season.  Heaney continues to pitch like a #3.  We go back to a 6 man rotation with Skaggs, Heaney and Cole making normal starts almost every 5th day and Ohtani, Barria, Suarez, Canning, Sandoval filling in the rest.  Pujols announces 2020 will be his final year.  We continue to piecemeal at C.  The bullpen becomes a strength.  We extend Simmons.  One of Thaiss or Ward become an everyday player (hopefully Ward).  Another good draft and appropriate farm development.  Marsh and Jones get major league time.  We win 92 games and the 2nd WC.  

2021:  We re-sign Skaggs.  We now have a bunch of high ceiling prospects in the upper minors ready to fill gaps at the major league level or to function as trade bait.  
Rotation: Ohtani, Cole, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Canning, Suarez, Sandoval, Rodriguez, Soriano, Tropeano, Bradish, Hernandez etc
Bullpen: Buttrey, Middleton, Anderson, JCR, Pena, Jewell, Walsh (LHer), Jerez, Cam, Robles, Meyer plus other farm hands that will emerge 
C - FA/Trade, Kruger, Smith
1b - Upton, Thaiss Ward, FA/Trade, Walsh
2b - Rengifo, Fletcher, Jones
3b - Ward, Fletcher, FA/Trade
SS - Simmons, Rengifo, 
LF - Marsh, Upton, (Trout moves to LF maybe by then)
CF - Trout, Adell, Knowles
RF - Adell, Knowles, Marsh
DH - Ohtani 
4th OFer - Herm, Walsh, FA/Trade
Util - Fletcher, Rengifo
other prospects waiting in the wings - Adams, Jackson, Maitan and others.  

major salaries going to Trout, Skaggs, Upton, Simmons  and arb guys.   
 

In your scenario, don't forget Gerrit Cole under major salaries. 

[floplag]

25 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

That's fair. I felt that way when Heyward was available but in hindsight I'm glad they held back.

Hindsight is easy, but im the type of person that will typically always going to give credit for making the effort, even if it doesnt fully work out, over not doing what you could for fear of it not being what you hope.

[Angel Oracle]

If Cole duplicates his 2018 season for the Astros, what would everyone on here offer him tops for a FA contract?

Being just 29 for most of 2020 season, I might go as high as 6 years/$150 million?   Granted that isn't much more than Corbin got.