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Well... Pecota doesnt like us at all...


floplag

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I’ve honestly never been a fan of these kinds of statistics.  I don’t think they are really that predictive.   The Angels are of course hoping for better years from several guys then projections like ZIPs or Pecota will churn out. 

I don’t think there’s enough data for them to predict what guys like David Fletcher or Taylor Ward will do.  Obviously the Angels need both of those guys to be major league players. 

Edited by UndertheHalo
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Just now, Dtwncbad said:

6 games out if the postseason.

Bummer.  Wouldn't it be great if there was a potential 6 WAR player, still young going INTO prime years openly available on the market that positionally fit a specific need for the Angels?

Dude. Didn’t you read....you already signed Ty Kelly!

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Not that I’d be surprised at all if the Angels did end up around .500 like the last several years.  I think the possible outcomes is pretty wide. If things go right I can see this group winning 90 games.  But clearly, anyone following the team who’s honest knows that this team has a lot of question marks and could easily slide back from even last year. 

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2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

They predict the Angels are going to give up 70 more runs than they gave up last year.  I highly doubt that.  They also predict they score 70 more runs.  

It’s because they’re plugging Harvey in for heavy usage.  These projections aren’t going to be nice to him.  The Angels are obviously banking on him not putting up his Mets numbers.  Also, that reliever from the Phillies.  It is what it is.  Cody Allen is also probably not getting a lot of love. 

Edited by UndertheHalo
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2 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

It’s because they’re plugging Harvey in for heavy usage.  These projections aren’t going to be nice to him.  The Angels are obviously banking on him not putting up his Mets numbers.  Also, that reliever from the Phillies.  It is what it is.  Cody Allen is also probably not getting a lot of love. 

Skaggs had a 2.62 ERA through 19 of his 25 starts then he got hurt and finished above a 4 ERA.  

Heaney is another year removed and should be better.  

Our 5th starting spot last year was atrocious.  If whoever pitches in that spot has even a 5 ERA we probably win 5 more games.  As for the pen, does anyone really think Allen will be any worse than Parker?  

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4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Skaggs had a 2.62 ERA through 19 of his 25 starts then he got hurt and finished above a 4 ERA.  

Heaney is another year removed and should be better.  

Our 5th starting spot last year was atrocious.  If whoever pitches in that spot has even a 5 ERA we probably win 5 more games.  As for the pen, does anyone really think Allen will be any worse than Parker?  

Im just saying.  This is why it’s projecting what it’s projecting.  Like I said above, I personally don’t put a lot into these.  Skaggs is another example of a pitcher the Angels are hoping for results significantly better then Pecota is giving him.  I think it’s not a terrible bet to expect that he will live up to solidly beating those projections. 

Edited by UndertheHalo
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19 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Sorry that you are predictably negative.   

For the record I would have posted this either way, its hardly my fault the content is negative.
Ive posted my view on where we will be and this is below even that, which i found surprising. 
Regardless i fail to see how it justifies the childish bullshit but that also has become predictable. 

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3 minutes ago, floplag said:

For the record I would have posted this either way, its hardly my fault the content is negative.
Ive posted my view on where we will be and this is below even that, which i found surprising. 
Regardless i fail to see how it justifies the childish bullshit but that also has become predictable. 

If you showed the slightest bit of balance in your posting you’d have a point, but since you don’t, you get butthurt when called out for being negative.  

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1 minute ago, Lou said:

who thinks we'll finish 6 games or more behind the Rays? 

i don't

No, I don’t think so.  They did have a really good year last year.  Outside of Snell, I look at their success like I look at the A’s, just one of those years where a lot of things went right.

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The most interesting thing about the Rays and A’s IMO (well after all of their pitchers got hurt in OAK) is planned committee games.  That worked spectacularly well last year.  We’ll see if teams make that work again.  If so, that could represent a major shift in how teams pitch in the near future. 

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1 hour ago, floplag said:

Today is Pecota day for the 2019 season and they put out their projections.
They have us as a barely 500 team with a negative run differential.
They project we miss the second WC by 6 games to TB and are basically on par with the Twins.  
For your perusal

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

The team didn't do much to upgrade, do not expect them to be much better than last year.

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I'm having flashbacks to the Fangraphs FV article where someone not understanding how the process works reaches a faulty conclusion...   

Anyway, they are predicting the Angels offense to produce the third most runs in the AL, and a .340 OBP, .001 behind the Yanks and Sox....  Seems optimistic but given the ages of most of the offense it's nice to see.   Pitching is where they see problems... Given the short and injury laced track record of most of the pitching staff it makes sense, but since projection systems typically miss more on younger guys and players coming back from shortened seasons I guess there are reasons to be optimistic.

TL/DR, much like the Steamer projections that have the Angels as a 84 win team, Pecota likes the offense, hates the pitching...   This is one of those times where we gotta hope the front office's faith in Doug White and the analytics department proves to be right,and they end up making a difference.

Time will tell.

 

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