Dallas Keuchel

[Troll Daddy]

My bold signing prediction. Will also open the door for a trade ... possibly a back end starter for a reliever or position player.

[Ochocinco!]

Not happening 

[disarcina]

there's some pretty good rotation guys with experience still on the FA list.

Not top tier expensive guys like Kuechel but guys like:

Ervin Santana, Tomlin (pitched for Cleveland) Martin Perez (Texas - just signed a very reasonably priced one year deal with Minnesota),Edwin Jackson (former Dodger prospect from years back -- always lots of potential never realized with about at least five or six teams, Oakland, St. Louis, Washington, I think Tampa Bay and of course the LA Dogs etc.) Consistently very inconsistent his entire career (like Ervin Santana who could never win on the road when with the Halos) -- Edwin Jackson can pitch a real gem quality start and followed it up with several starts where he can't get through the third inning.

 

 

[Docwaukee]

I just don't see Arte busting through his payroll threshold for Dallas Keuchel and I rather they not.  He's a good pitcher but to add him now at his expected cost doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  I'd really like to see the Halos add a front line guy at some point or even a strong #2.  I would say if Corbin were still around that we should be in because he'd fit that bill.  But making a 4+ year commitment to a 31yo with declining velo scares me.  

Save that dough and give someone like Cole, Bumgarner or Sale that extra year next off season.  

[Troll Daddy]

23 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I just don't see Arte busting through his payroll threshold for Dallas Keuchel and I rather they not.  He's a good pitcher but to add him now at his expected cost doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  I'd really like to see the Halos add a front line guy at some point or even a strong #2.  I would say if Corbin were still around that we should be in because he'd fit that bill.  But making a 4+ year commitment to a 31yo with declining velo scares me.  

Save that dough and give someone like Cole, Bumgarner or Sale that extra year next off season.  

Sounds like you’re more concerned with next season than winning this season. 

I’ll let the FO decide on years and money if they make a play for him. 

[nando714]

2 hours ago, Ochocinco! said:

Not happening 

Why?

if the rumors are true and we offered Grandal a deal with the draft pick attached 

why not for another player with a QO?

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

Sounds like you’re more concerned with next season than winning this season. 

I’ll let the FO decide on years and money if they make a play for him. 

Or he’s concerned with paying a #3 starter $15-20 million a season.  I actually agree with you about Keuchel, but I completely understand Docs side. 

[Docwaukee]

Honestly, I'm just not a huge fan even at a discount.  

I'm concerned about winning this year and I don't think Dallas Keuchel moves the need enough to stomach what he'll be 3 years from now when I think we've got an even better chance.  I just wouldn't tie up 40mil for 2021 or 2022 on a 33/34 yo when right now he merely increases our chances at a WC.  

He's the classic FA trap in my opinion.  

[Pancake Bear]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Honestly, I'm just not a huge fan even at a discount.  

I'm concerned about winning this year and I don't think Dallas Keuchel moves the need enough to stomach what he'll be 3 years from now when I think we've got an even better chance.  I just wouldn't tie up 40mil for 2021 or 2022 on a 33/34 yo when right now he merely increases our chances at a WC.  

He's the classic FA trap in my opinion.  

The year he's most likely to be good? This one. But is he an ace that you'd feel comfortable putting up against the top guy in NY or Boston if we make the WC game (since the chances of beating out Houston are at best low)? Not really. And with the concerns already mentioned, the most likely outcome is that by the third or fourth season, if not the second, he'd be completely dead weight. There's certainly a chance he's an effective pitcher for five seasons, but I wouldn't bet much on it.

There's a reason that although the Angels have been linked to Corbin and Eovaldi (coming of two TJ's), they never went after Keuchel that I know of (our new pitching coach should know him well; the fact that we never really pursued him is telling). Houston apparently never made a serious play to re-sign him either, as far as I'm aware. Correct me if I'm wrong - there are a lot of danger signs with Keuchel

[DMVol]

He could be a late signing....like Holland last year....teams don't want to give up that draft pick....wouldn't stun me if he ended up back with the Stros....

[nate]

Pretty sure Eppler is done.

Maybe a trade but I don't think there will be any signings.

[Dtwncbad]

I don't see this guy as a big risk over the next 3 seasons.  Every pitcher has SOME risk you can't avoid.

The guy can pitch.  He is good.  He would help this team win more games.

The obstacle is his interest in getting a deal that a guy two years younger might get.

He isn't "old" but I think teams are getting a little better at pricing these guys based on the anticipated number of prime years remaining.

I would be pretty happy if the Angels could get this guy on a three year deal.

I know, I know. . .the prediction is he isnt signing a 3 year deal.  I get it.  Just saying I wouldn't mind Eppler watching for an opportunity here.

[floplag]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Honestly, I'm just not a huge fan even at a discount.  

I'm concerned about winning this year and I don't think Dallas Keuchel moves the need enough to stomach what he'll be 3 years from now when I think we've got an even better chance.  I just wouldn't tie up 40mil for 2021 or 2022 on a 33/34 yo when right now he merely increases our chances at a WC.  

He's the classic FA trap in my opinion.  

I would really like to add this to the overused lines thread.   I respect your analytical views on most things even if i dont agree with them all the time but man oh man this has become the literal thesis for this team right now.  Waiting for Hou to collapse inst a plan in my book.

[Dtwncbad]

I will add that coming up a game short of the wildcard (vs like 82 wins) likely means a very exciting season with fans paying more attention and getting more attached emotionally to the team.

There is huge value to the franchise and the brand in having exciting, winning seasons versus logging 82 win seasons waiting for another team to get past its dominating window.

I don't expect the Angels to be in the postseason every year, but I hope for a season where they are at least in the hunt, wherher they make it or not.  It is fun when they are in the hunt and almost no fun at all when they are not.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

I would really like to add this to the overused lines thread.   I respect your analytical views on most things even if i dont agree with them all the time but man oh man this has become the literal thesis for this team right now.  Waiting for Hou to collapse inst a plan in my book.

their plan is not  waiting for Hou to collapse.    

that's a ridiculous statement to fuel your own narrative.  

 

[Stradling]

20 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

their plan is not  waiting for Hou to collapse.    

that's a ridiculous statement to fuel your own narrative.  

 

Not to mention wasted money is waisted money.  I’m sure Flop is pumped about Albert because he gave us a 5 WAR season in 2012.   

[Docwaukee]

13 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I will add that coming up a game short of the wildcard (vs like 82 wins) likely means a very exciting season with fans paying more attention and getting more attached emotionally to the team.

There is huge value to the franchise and the brand in having exciting, winning seasons versus logging 82 win seasons waiting for another team to get past its dominating window.

I don't expect the Angels to be in the postseason every year, but I hope for a season where they are at least in the hunt, wherher they make it or not.  It is fun when they are in the hunt and almost no fun at all when they are not.

true that winning is exciting.  

I guarantee you the Angels are primarily focused on what they can control as opposed to things they can't like Hou, Bos, NYY and Cle.  

There are always going to be good teams that you'll have to beat so it's not about waiting anyone out.  It's about creating your own dominating window.  Something that becomes more challenging when you are paying a guy 20 mil per season at age 33 and 34.  

Arte has set a payroll so money matters.  It's always going to matter.  That's reality.  So while being in a WC race and promoting the Angels brand are good and fun, the primary goal and what takes precedence is creating the right window.  

And because money and timing matter, you essentially have to make a choice.  Now or later.  They have chosen later.  

[Dtwncbad]

18 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

their plan is not  waiting for Hou to collapse.    

that's a ridiculous statement to fuel your own narrative.  

 

I agree with you, but you should have some space for people talking about this when so, so many times there are explicit comments from posters about making or not making a move now because the move won't catch the Astros.

I don't literally believe the Angels front office is avoiding a transaction because the transaction does not catch the Astros.  I think they are trying to build something sustainable with the discipline to not make desperate moves to catch the Astros.

But that doesn't mean I wouldn't engage in exchanging comments on this board to offset the fairly common poster comment that "the Angels shouldn't do that for 2019 because it doesnt catch the Astros."

[failos]

Zero chance. Unless Keuchel is a peanut.

[jordan]

I’m all for this on a 1 yr deal if it comes to that. And I wouldn’t discount that from happening at this stage. 1 yr/$18. 

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

their plan is not  waiting for Hou to collapse.    

that's a ridiculous statement to fuel your own narrative.  

 

Nonsense.  If thats your measuring stick, which clearly it is,  that exactly what you are hoping for, that they come back to the pack enough to make it worth it for us.    Perhaps collapse is an exaggeration but i would have thought that was obvious.  
 

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

I agree with you, but you should have some space for people talking about this when so, so many times there are explicit comments from posters about making or not making a move now because the move won't catch the Astros.

I don't literally believe the Angels front office is avoiding a transaction because the transaction does not catch the Astros.  I think they are trying to build something sustainable with the discipline to not make desperate moves to catch the Astros.

But that doesn't mean I wouldn't engage in exchanging comments on this board to offset the fairly common poster comment that "the Angels shouldn't do that for 2019 because it doesnt catch the Astros."

Thank you,  And that precise thing has been said numerous times.. "it doesnt move the needle enough"   

 

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Not to mention wasted money is waisted money.  I’m sure Flop is pumped about Albert because he gave us a 5 WAR season in 2012.   

speaking of ridiculous statements...   sheesh. 

[jordan]

1 hour ago, jordan said:

I’m all for this on a 1 yr deal if it comes to that. And I wouldn’t discount that from happening at this stage. 1 yr/$18. 

On second thought, I don’t think I’d want to give up a draft pick for one year and especially giving it to the Astros. 

[VariousCrap]

They could offer him a one year deal with a second year option that goes into effect if he hits certain marks in 2019.

 

 

 

[Second Base]

Not a fit....

1. If they sign Keuchel short term, it still results in losing your second round pick AND international bonus money.  Why give that up for only one year of benefit. 

2. If they sign Keuchel long term, you've got to look at whether he'll be effective by the end of the contract.  So far, everything about him screams no.  Keuchel should be good in 2019.  2020 too.  Probably pretty solid still in 2021.  But beyond that, there are some pre-existing red flags.

3. We stretched the budget for Cody Allen.  Taking the comments contextually, it's safe to say Eppler won't be spending a ton of money moving forward. 

[Stradling]

19 minutes ago, floplag said:

Nonsense.  If thats your measuring stick, which clearly it is,  that exactly what you are hoping for, that they come back to the pack enough to make it worth it for us.    Perhaps collapse is an exaggeration but i would have thought that was obvious.  
 

Thank you,  And that precise thing has been said numerous times.. "it doesnt move the needle enough"   

 

speaking of ridiculous statements...   sheesh. 

What a joke.  Of course Doc wants them to succeed, thinking otherwise is simply being an asshole.