Upton on MLB Radio re: Ohtani

[arch stanton]

If he was an everyday OF could you expect similar production to that which is expected of (former MVP) Bryce Harper, who has been offered $300 million? If he was a full time starter could you expect similar production to (former CY winner) David Price, who has already signed for $30 million a year? His contract negotiations are going to be interesting

[Ender]

11 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

Ohtani is a freak athlete.  He’s probably be good at just about any athletic endeavor he pursued.  

Book it. Shohei Ohtani vs Jon Jones.

[Make Angels Great Again]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

obviously, the following numbers could change with progression/improvement but consider: 

Ohatni produced 1.2 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR as a pitcher in 10 starts for an avg of 0.11 WAR per start.  

He produced 2.7 bWAR and 2.8 fWAR as a hitter in 367 pa.  At an avg of 4.14 pa per start from the #3 spot in the lineup as a league base, it means that he got about 89 games worth of at bats.  Therefore producing .03 WAR per game as a hitter.  

Therefore, as a pitcher he would produce 3.3 WAR in 30 starts 

As a hitter, he would produce 4.5 WAR if he hit in 150 games

He averaged 1 start per week which I could see happening going forward.  Which mean over the course of a season he could make up to 28 starts.  Let's call it 25 starts.  

So that would be 2.8 WAR as a pitcher over a full season.  

If they continue the same schedule where they give him the day off before and after his starts, that would amount to him missing about 75 games. But if they plan it right with off days etc. it could be 70 or maybe even fewer.  Call it 70.  So let's say he hits in 90 games plus pinch hit appearances in those games on either side of his starts minus a few inter league games in NL parks and that puts him at around 100 games as a hitter.  

100 games at 0.03 per game is 3.0 WAR.  

So as a two way player with similar stats, he's worth 5.8 WAR 

He is worth more as a two way player than he is only doing one or the other unless doing both inhibits him from excelling in either on an individual basis.  That may be slightly true but probably not enough to justify forcing him to focus on just one.  

Think of it this way.  Take a slightly better version of David Price from last year (180ish ip, 3.58 era, 2.7 WAR) and give him 5 less starts but on his off days, he's a slightly better version of Giancarlo Stanton as a hitter in 50 less games for the year.  

 

 

 

And that's before taking into account his potential for growth and improvement.

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, Ender said:

Book it. Shohei Ohtani vs Jon Jones.

Shohei Ohtani vs Seth Rollins

Shohei, the new: 

[Slegnaac]

Why do people think he needs to play the field if he gives up pitching?  The AL has a full-time position called Designated Hitter.

[ten ocho recon scout]

20 hours ago, arch stanton said:

If he was an everyday OF could you expect similar production to that which is expected of (former MVP) Bryce Harper, who has been offered $300 million? If he was a full time starter could you expect similar production to (former CY winner) David Price, who has already signed for $30 million a year? His contract negotiations are going to be interesting

So will his arbitration. 

"He doesnt even play a full time position!" as we try and keep the money low.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Randy Gradishar said:

But 5.8 WAR out of two spots isn't necessarily better than 4.5 WAR from just hitting. He could be bumping a 2.0 WAR pitcher out of the rotation, so it's actually 5.8 vs. 6.5.

Of course then you have to factor in who's picking up the extra DH games if he pitches, etc. But the point is that it isn't as simple as adding his WAR; he's basically two separate players named Shohei Ohtani.

The value is really that you only have to pay one (and they're both good).

assuming he occupies about 1.5 players worth of available PT (75% of a player on either side of the ball), of course the replacement production and cost of that other 0.5 needs to be factored in.  But it only really becomes important when he starts to make a lot more money or if the other available players are really good.  

It's actually more important on the pitching side because there, he replaces your worst player and or combo of players for 25 starts.  Most teams (almost none in fact) have a spare 2 WAR player laying around to occupy those starts.   So he's not gonna bump that guy.  He's gonna bump guys worse than that.  He made 10 start this year.  If he were healthy, he'd have made 25 or so.  that means the 15 of the 18 starts from JCM, Deck McGuire, Bridwell, Cole, Lamb, Noe, Jim Johnson, and Despaigne would have gone away.  

So that would be a great problem where the worst of our 5 other starters is good enough to make Ohtani a full time DH.  

And let's say that Ohtani became just a starter which means you'd need about 2.5 WAR to make up the difference.  2 teams combined for more than 2.4 WAR at DH last year.  One of which was the Angels.  So is it easier to find that one guy who can produce 2.5 WAR at DH/PH or let Ohtani produce 3 WAR there in 100 games and hope that for the other 62 games the combo of those used don't produce at -0.5 WAR.  

so again, you are getting 3/4th of a season from David Price and Giancarlo Stanton at league min from one player and you've got to fill in  the other 1/4th at each of those spots.  

the other way to think of it is that if he gives you 6 WAR as 1.5 players at league min and the filler gets you 0 WAR for the other 0.5, how easy is it going to be to fill another roster spot that isn't Ohtani with 2.0-2.5 WAR for the baseball equivalent of free should they choose to make him choose to hit or pitch.   

[AngelsLakersFan]

You also have to factor in his potential ability to contribute defensively as a full time position player. The DH adjustment is severe and he probably has the talent to be an above average outfielder which could net him a couple more wins.

[Pujols4MVP]

On 2/1/2019 at 1:29 PM, AngelsLakersFan said:

You also have to factor in his potential ability to contribute defensively as a full time position player. The DH adjustment is severe and he probably has the talent to be an above average outfielder which could net him a couple more wins.

Imagine Ohtani as a future RFer, i could see him leading the league in OF assists at RF. Pretty much teams would stop trying to stretch a single into a double if its hit into RF.

[Docwaukee]

On 2/1/2019 at 1:29 PM, AngelsLakersFan said:

You also have to factor in his potential ability to contribute defensively as a full time position player. The DH adjustment is severe and he probably has the talent to be an above average outfielder which could net him a couple more wins.

Even though I wrote what I did, I think he could actually be a 6-7 WAR player if he was in the OF everyday.  Maybe even better.  But I look at the landscape of this team for the nest few years and see that our biggest need is at the top of the rotation.  I feel like his brings more relative value as a pitcher than as an OFer when we've got Adell on the way and Trout/Upton out there already.  He really is a top of the rotation arm.  You add a top FA pitcher next year and maybe even swing a trade for another front line starter where you're in a position to have Heaney and Skaggs be your 4/5.  We get Adell and Rengifo to work out in the lineup and add a closer.   And how about a little overdue luck on someone like Taylor Ward becoming a solid everyday 3bman.  I would like that team a whole lot.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

15 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Even though I wrote what I did, I think he could actually be a 6-7 WAR player if he was in the OF everyday.  Maybe even better.  But I look at the landscape of this team for the nest few years and see that our biggest need is at the top of the rotation.  I feel like his brings more relative value as a pitcher than as an OFer when we've got Adell on the way and Trout/Upton out there already.  He really is a top of the rotation arm.  You add a top FA pitcher next year and maybe even swing a trade for another front line starter where you're in a position to have Heaney and Skaggs be your 4/5.  We get Adell and Rengifo to work out in the lineup and add a closer.   And how about a little overdue luck on someone like Taylor Ward becoming a solid everyday 3bman.  I would like that team a whole lot.  

The dude can do whatever he wants. He has as much talent as anyone in the game, the only question is how healthy he stays and how we can maximize his time in the lineup. I agree with you, but I'm less concerned with the makeup of the team than I am with getting the most out of him.

[Rollinghard]

If Upton falters........