Eppler's Upcoming Surprise Touchdown (Wild Speculation)

[TroutAdell]

Keuchel would be a way better investment than Kimbrel. Buttrey looks like he has the stuff to be a future closer. Don’t spend that much on the pen unless that is the missing piece to be a WS possibility. 

I agree with those who say sign Machado. The Halos haven’t produced a legit third baseman since Troy Glaus almost two decades ago. Ward should be moved back to catcher, another position the Angels have failed to produce since Benji Molina.  

[ScruffytheJanitor]

I was expecting this to be a Keuchel, Harper, or Machado thing. Kimbrel doesn't seem like that great of a move, even if he'd make our pen rock solid.

I actually expect Kimbrel to end up with the Padres, since they seem determined to blow their money on something.

[Hubs]

Machado fits, because the Angels are light at 3B, and this coming from the biggest Ward fan on this board. But there are teams willing to offer him more than the Angels. Chance = <5%

Harper does not because the Angels have Adell in future plans for RF, as well as Marsh, and then like 10 guys in the OF after him. And the Angels are not going to spend 100M+ on 3 OF.

(Trout 35-45, Harper 30-40, And Upton 28).

Chance = <1%

Kimbrel doesn't make sense because they just added a closer. Chance = <1%

Keuchel does, on a one year deal especially, if he settles for that. Chance = 20-25%

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

If the rumors of Harper reaching agreement with the Phillies turn out to be true, that leaves Machado, Keuchel, and Kimbrel as the key unsigned FAs with 15 days to go.  

What is the most that all on here would offer to Machado?    I'm not sure that any contract is worth the trouble that he brings.

Keuchel is a hits machine.   Next step after that is a rising ERA and WHIP, no thank you

Kimbrel is too expensive for where the Halos are in their retooling of the org.   Hope that Allen finds his pre-2018 stuff. 

[Tank]

13 hours ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

He did it while he was still in Atlanta.

fenway . . . chicken . . . pitchers . . .

[Angelsjunky]

A team's overall strength can be divided in various ways, most obviously through offense (runs scored) and defense (runs prevented). But I like to look at it in terms of four components: hitting, defense, starting pitching, bullpen. Technically speaking, hitting is 50% - it accounts for all of runs scored - with the other three components comprising the other 50%. That said, it could be argued that hitting is more like 40% of the team's overall value, because this may not work in a purely linear manner.

But how do the rotation and bullpen compare in terms of run prevention? Traditionally a "quality start" would be 6 innings and 3 earned runs, which was a kind of over/under for what you would expect from your starters. Meaning, the rotation was roughly two-thirds (67%) of the innings--and thus run prevention--of your pitching staff. Now you could also argue that not all innings are equal, that how a staff performs in the 8th and 9th inning is more important than, say, the 3rd and 4th. But that is, again, subjective.

But here's an interesting tidbit. Consider the percentage of innings for starters vs. relievers going back in 10-year increments:

MLB Innings Pitched - Starters/Relievers

2018: 60/40

2008: 65/35

1998: 68/32

1988: 71/29

1978: 73/27

1968: 74/26

Of course I'm not looking at every year, but the trend is clear and obvious. There is variance team by team (e.g. in 2018, Angels started accounted for only 56% of IP, while Astros starters accounted for 66%), but that is the overall percentage.

What I'm trying to get at is that there is a gap between perception and reality about this, at least among fans and perhaps the less stat-savvy baseball executives and analysts. Most of us associate with baseball as it was played 10-30ish years ago, depending upon our age, so we see the bullpen as something like 30-35% of the value of the pitching staff. Older folks might think in terms of 25-30%.

But if we look at the actual innings share, then we can see that the modern day bullpen has a roughly 40% share of the total pitching staff - and it is a trend that has actually sped up over the last decade. Who knows where this will end up; in another 20 years, the "starter" might simply be the guy who pitches the first 3 innings. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a team try something like this within the next decade, at least with one or two starters (Ohtani?).

The overall point being, the bullpen should be more prioritized than it was in years past. It currently comprises 35-45% (depending upon the team, or on average 40%) of the total innings pitched. And that doesn't even consider the psychological impact of having an elite bullpen to entrust the last 3-4 innings to.

[Chuck]

Here's Eppler's next surprise to those thinking there's some sort of a big surprise coming. You know, a TOUCHDOWN of sorts of offseason moves to come...

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Here's Eppler's next surprise to those thinking there's some sort of a big surprise coming. You know, a TOUCHDOWN of sorts of offseason moves to come...

Love that man.

[Chuck]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Love that man.

lol, honestly that's Arte not Jack or Billy. 

[jgimondo]

On ‎1‎/‎26‎/‎2019 at 5:16 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Aside from a Trout extension, of course.

Craig Kimbrel. 

Think about it: he is still unsigned, which may mean the Red Sox are moving on. We're two+ weeks from pitchers reporting. The highest free agent reliever contracts this offseason are Britton (3/$39M), then Familia (3/$30M). The Kenley Jansen (5/$80M) and Aroldis Chapman (5/$86M) are starting to look like cautionary tales. 

Maybe Kimbrel settles for a still sizeable 3/$45M or 4/$55M and gives the Angels a truly nasty bullpen: Kimbrel, Allen, Buttrey, Anderson, Garcia, Robles, Bedrosian, Pena/Tropeano/Cole.

They promised Allen the closer role?