So now that we're pretty much done.....

[Second Base]

Good News: Jon Lucroy leads the Angels staff, and they get the best performance from their rotation that they've had in years.  Tyler Skaggs, Andrelton Simmons, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout will all be all-stars.  The bullpen will be MUCH better than originally anticipated.  Jose Suarez and Griffin Canning both do well in their short stints with the Angels, thus securing a future with the team.  Ward gets on base and drives the ball.  Luis Rengifo won't looked overwhelmed in his short stint either.  Matt Thaiss will earn his way into a starting role in September. 

Bad News: Upton's range in LF will lead to that being a defensive weakness.  The offense goes through HUGE slumps throughout the year.  It basically becomes Trout-Ohtani-Simmons and then nothing much. The pitching, while better than anticipated still lacks the upside to measure up with other staff aces.  The Angels will win too many games to sell at the deadline, but also won't win enough games or have the necessary payroll flexibility to buy.  Ward's timing issues will lead to more prolonged slumps.  David Fletcher proves capable of making contact, but also proves that he can't do much with the contact made.  Rengifo comes with a lot of excitement, but his play and overall physicality leave fans with the knowledge that he isn't as much of a game changer as much as he won't hurt the team.  Matt Thaiss' promotion will have less to do with excitement over his ceiling, and more to do with the woes of Albert Pujols and Justin Bour.

Conclusion: The Angels finish second in the AL West with 86 wins, three full games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the second wild card.  But Albert Pujols' farewell tour will leave a lot tear streaked cheeks for one of the best players, and best guy in the game. 

Future Implications: With so many expiring contracts, the Angels will have a little bit of financial wiggle room heading into the next off-season.  Jahmai Jones' 2019 breakout will lead to him taking over at second base in 2020.  Jo Adell's second half mastery of AA and AAA will lead to a starting RF spot in 2020.  Justin Upton will actually begin DHing whenever Ohtani isn't, and will begin to break in a first baseman's mitt and log quite a few starts over there throughout the 2020 season to make room for Brandon Marsh in LF. The Angels will sign Zach Wheeler next offseason, where he'll join Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney and Canning as a pretty fearsome starting rotation.  Mike Trout will explore free agency after the 2020 season, but ultimately re-up with the Angels. 

[AngelsHilo]

Cozart gets off to a great start,  Has .850 OPS at the trade deadline.  He's flipped to the injury laden Rox along with Jam Jones, and Marsh for......Nolan Arenado!

Pujols hits game winning, pinch hit single in the bottom of the 9th off Zack Britton to score starting 2B Luis Rengifo to win Game 7 of the World Series.  Pujols promptly announces his retirement.  

Trout signs 10 year extension.  Arenado signs 8 year, $240MM contract with money freed up from Albert's retirement.  Arenado happy to be back living in Newport Beach.  

[Stradling]

Just now, Fregosi said:

Cozart gets off to a great start,  Has .850 OPS at the trade deadline.  He's flipped to the injury laden Rox along with Jam Jones, and Marsh for......Nolan Arenado!

Pujols hits game winning, pinch hit single in the bottom of the 9th off Zack Britton to score starting 2B Luis Rengifo to win Game 7 of the World Series.  Pujols promptly announces his retirement.  

Trout signs 10 year extension.  Arenado signs 8 year, $240MM contract with money freed up from Albert's retirement.  Arenado happy to be back living in Newport Beach.  

Is this where I ask what team Britton was traded to?  Or which team Albert and Rengifo were traded to?

[AngelsHilo]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Is this where I ask what team Britton was traded to?  Or which team Albert and Rengifo were traded to?

You could.  But I won't tell you.

[TroutAdell]

I would still like to see Eppler acquire a platoon partner for Calhoun. There are a lot of question marks in the lineup. How soon does Ohtani come back. Without him there is a huge hole in the lineup. Can Cozart rebound? If he leads off he needs to get onbase in front of 27. Can Ohtani and Upton produce enough to force teams to pitch to Trout. Who knows what Bour brings. No worries with Simmons. Calhoun must strictly be a platoon player. Lucroy will be steady and handle the staff well. The bench is up in the air. You have LaStella and the backup catcher along with the platoon partner. A lot has to go right for the Angels to compete. Oakland won’t win 97 games again, But TB could win over 90. Houston could drop back a little but will probably still win at least 95 games. It is tough to win enough to play for the second WC. 

What is needed most of all is HEALTH. 

[AngelsHilo]

8 minutes ago, TroutTrumbo said:

I would still like to see Eppler acquire a platoon partner for Calhoun. There are a lot of question marks in the lineup. How soon does Ohtani come back. Without him there is a huge hole in the lineup. Can Cozart rebound? If he leads off he needs to get onbase in front of 27. Can Ohtani and Upton produce enough to force teams to pitch to Trout. Who knows what Bour brings. No worries with Simmons. Calhoun must strictly be a platoon player. Lucroy will be steady and handle the staff well. The bench is up in the air. You have LaStella and the backup catcher along with the platoon partner. A lot has to go right for the Angels to compete. Oakland won’t win 97 games again, But TB could win over 90. Houston could drop back a little but will probably still win at least 95 games. It is tough to win enough to play for the second WC. 

What is needed most of all is HEALTH. 

We'll need to carry 13 position players.  Especially when Ohtani becomes available.  That being said, we have the 3 starting OF's, two catchers, and Cozart, Simmons, Pujols, and Bour who are guaranteed spots.  LaStella wouldn't have been acquired if they didn't want his versatility and left handed bat.  That leaves 3 spots open.  So the battle will be between Fletcher, Ward, Rengifo, Hermosillo, and Bourjos.  Fletcher makes the most sense for one spot, because of his versatility to play 3 infield positions and RF.  It's going to come down to who ends up winning the 2B and 3B job and the 4th OF spot. 

Marwin Gonzalez solves some of the issues if he gets signed.  He can platoon with Calhoun and start at 2B and 3B or even SS when needed.  Plus he' a switch hitter.  He would eliminate the need to have a 4th OF when Ohtani comes back.

[Tank]

There will be at least one thread before the end of the second week in April about how we started 6-14 in 2002.

[m0nkey]

12 hours ago, Glen said:

We'll finish April two games below .500.

After starting 6-14

[m0nkey]

Dammit tank

[Rico]

I was hoping to see some sick lineups up in here.

[ScruffytheJanitor]

Just to look smart when this uber-negative scenario happens: the wheels fall off and we win 63 games.

Ward, Rengifo, Cozart, Lucroy, Pujols/Bour,  and Kole all turn out to be black holes offensively. Otahni misses time until mid-May and has a slow start, but still mashes once he gets going. Trout and Upton each miss time with a series of smaller injuries, leading to worse results than their lines would otherwise indicate.  Cahill and Harvey only combine for 20 below-average starts before Harvey is traded for peanuts and Cahill is added to the DL. Despite solid performances by Skaggs and Heaney,  once again we trot out a string of terrible back-end starters and have no real Ace. Buttrey and Robles show themselves as keepers, but Anderson gets the zipper by June and the bullpen falls apart.

Forced to make a gamble, Michael Hermosillo takes over in RF has a hot week in June, then shows himself as a AAAA player over the next 200ABs. Cody Allen is tremendously mediocre but is still flipped for a sleeper prospect. The Angels finally call it done and trade Upton, Trop, and Deveaux to the Braves for Austin Riley at the deadline.

Trout, Ohtani, Simmons, Skaggs, Heaney, Buttrey and Robles are all solid, but the rest of the team supplies so much negative value that the season is over well before the all-star break. The team rallies in August when Adell, Jam Jones, and Reily make their debut and crush it, and Canning/Suarez combine for a few shutouts.

Pujols announces his retirement, and the Angels (with another great draft adding to a widely-recognized top 5 farm system) decide it's time to cash in some chips and build a contender.

[floplag]

9 hours ago, RBM said:

A team that wins 85/86 games and is still in the hunt in September but misses the playoffs by three games would not be sellers in July. If you must continue to be a pessimist at least be consistent and accurate. 

That depends entirely on a number of factors and is not an absolute.   How far back are we at the deadline?  Do we really have a shot at more than that one game? 

If those players are not part of the future plans, and building the farm and making the team better in 20 and beyond is a higher priority than making the one game wild card, especially if they dont really have the guns to win it, why wouldnt you?  

Lets assume Harvey for example has a strong rebound, would he have more value to us in that game, or to an actual contender and we accelerate the real goal of building the farm faster?

You cant just say in the hunt means no selling of guys on expiring deals, especially if we have Canning and Suarez looking like they are ready to push for a major league roster spot, thats counter productive.   To me thats being penny wise and dollar foolish, if the long term plan is the priority, then it should be so regardless.

Now if by some chance we are winning the division or in the drivers seat for that wildcard, perhaps a different story, but simply being in the mix isnt enough to change the plan in my opinion if you can get the right value for them..

[angelsnationtalk]

17 hours ago, Second Base said:

Good News: Jon Lucroy leads the Angels staff, and they get the best performance from their rotation that they've had in years.  Tyler Skaggs, Andrelton Simmons, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout will all be all-stars.  The bullpen will be MUCH better than originally anticipated.  Jose Suarez and Griffin Canning both do well in their short stints with the Angels, thus securing a future with the team.  Ward gets on base and drives the ball.  Luis Rengifo won't looked overwhelmed in his short stint either.  Matt Thaiss will earn his way into a starting role in September. 

Bad News: Upton's range in LF will lead to that being a defensive weakness.  The offense goes through HUGE slumps throughout the year.  It basically becomes Trout-Ohtani-Simmons and then nothing much. The pitching, while better than anticipated still lacks the upside to measure up with other staff aces.  The Angels will win too many games to sell at the deadline, but also won't win enough games or have the necessary payroll flexibility to buy.  Ward's timing issues will lead to more prolonged slumps.  David Fletcher proves capable of making contact, but also proves that he can't do much with the contact made.  Rengifo comes with a lot of excitement, but his play and overall physicality leave fans with the knowledge that he isn't as much of a game changer as much as he won't hurt the team.  Matt Thaiss' promotion will have less to do with excitement over his ceiling, and more to do with the woes of Albert Pujols and Justin Bour.

Conclusion: The Angels finish second in the AL West with 86 wins, three full games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the second wild card.  But Albert Pujols' farewell tour will leave a lot tear streaked cheeks for one of the best players, and best guy in the game. 

Future Implications: With so many expiring contracts, the Angels will have a little bit of financial wiggle room heading into the next off-season.  Jahmai Jones' 2019 breakout will lead to him taking over at second base in 2020.  Jo Adell's second half mastery of AA and AAA will lead to a starting RF spot in 2020.  Justin Upton will actually begin DHing whenever Ohtani isn't, and will begin to break in a first baseman's mitt and log quite a few starts over there throughout the 2020 season to make room for Brandon Marsh in LF. The Angels will sign Zach Wheeler next offseason, where he'll join Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney and Canning as a pretty fearsome starting rotation.  Mike Trout will explore free agency after the 2020 season, but ultimately re-up with the Angels. 

Boy I hope you're wrong about the offense having serious issues. I would be happy if we make a push for the WC (fingers crossed). I'd also be decently happy if the Angels have a bad year IF AND ONLY IF our prospects like Ward, Thaiss, Canning, Suarez, Rengifo, Fletcher and Jones can show the ability to play well in MLB. I only say this because it will allow us to become sellers at the deadline to open room up and to free up some payroll. Names like Calhoun and Cozart would make the better impact for payroll relief. If Simmons gets an extension and Fletcher, Rengifo, Ward and Jones can prove they can handle their ground, Cozart could become MLB ready talent to help a playoff team fill the holes they need for a deep playoff run. 

The stars could finally align this season allowing us to become a much better team in 2020 and beyond.

[angelsnationtalk]

9 minutes ago, floplag said:

That depends entirely on a number of factors and is not an absolute.   How far back are we at the deadline?  Do we really have a shot at more than that one game? 

If those players are not part of the future plans, and building the farm and making the team better in 20 and beyond is a higher priority than making the one game wild card, especially if they dont really have the guns to win it, why wouldnt you?  

Lets assume Harvey for example has a strong rebound, would he have more value to us in that game, or to an actual contender and we accelerate the real goal of building the farm faster?

You cant just say in the hunt means no selling of guys on expiring deals, especially if we have Canning and Suarez looking like they are ready to push for a major league roster spot, thats counter productive.   To me thats being penny wise and dollar foolish, if the long term plan is the priority, then it should be so regardless.

Now if by some chance we are winning the division or in the drivers seat for that wildcard, perhaps a different story, but simply being in the mix isnt enough to change the plan in my opinion if you can get the right value for them..

I can agree with you Floplag....

If, let's say, Cozart and Calhoun are having good years then teams will be calling. If Eppler sees the trade offers for them are great in terms of impact prospects almost MLB ready (like Buttrey), then the deal could be made. Eppler would realize the return will impact the Angels come 2020-beyond. Of course, we don't want to see it happen, but if it's a close call for the playoffs then I highly doubt we trade talent to make a run this year. Unless we have a legit 90+ win year, I'd still expect the Angels to be some form of sellers. This all depends on how the Astros, Athletics, Indians, Red Sox and Yankees finish. If we are way outmatched and the next few years has better promise, then I'd sell. Specially when Pujols could retire this year and defer his contract as well as all these 1 year contracts. There could be substantial payroll flexibility if Cozart, and Calhoun are traded plus Pujols' contract being deferred due to retirement. (could be $56M). It really just seems like 2019 is the last limbo season but with a tony chance better to win.  

[Second Base]

15 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Boy I hope you're wrong about the offense having serious issues. I would be happy if we make a push for the WC (fingers crossed). I'd also be decently happy if the Angels have a bad year IF AND ONLY IF our prospects like Ward, Thaiss, Canning, Suarez, Rengifo, Fletcher and Jones can show the ability to play well in MLB. I only say this because it will allow us to become sellers at the deadline to open room up and to free up some payroll. Names like Calhoun and Cozart would make the better impact for payroll relief. If Simmons gets an extension and Fletcher, Rengifo, Ward and Jones can prove they can handle their ground, Cozart could become MLB ready talent to help a playoff team fill the holes they need for a deep playoff run. 

The stars could finally align this season allowing us to become a much better team in 2020 and beyond.

I dunno, I thought my prediction was pretty centered.  I don't think the Angels will win as much as we want, but they'll also be markedly better than they were the past couple years.  But more than anything, they'll be set up to make a run in 2020 and beyond. 

[angelsnationtalk]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

I dunno, I thought my prediction was pretty centered.  I don't think the Angels will win as much as we want, but they'll also be markedly better than they were the past couple years.  But more than anything, they'll be set up to make a run in 2020 and beyond. 

I'm betting on 2020 as well. I agree that the offense could have issues but obviously we don't want to see that. We could push 85 wins this year. I think the best case thing we see is Pujols retiring and deferring contract as well as Calhoun traded, possibly Cozart and maybe a Cahill or Harvey. Would like to see prospects being dumped our way and massive payroll flexibility and a Trout/Simmons extension. Those are my goals for this season.  

Yours?

[floplag]

11 minutes ago, RBM said:

This was not a well reasoned response. If a team is in the mix in mid July they hold or buy. They don’t sell. Holding onto key performing players when you’re in the hunt is not changing the plan, it is the plan. 

Please provide examples of teams in the playoff hunt in mid July who traded away plus performing assets so they could get ready for next year. Eppler would probably use a football analogy and say it would be like punting on 3rd down.

Well you are entitled to your view of course, but this isnt really like any other situation now is it? 
There is a clear and very large gap between the powers in the league and the rest of us, and we didnt make up near enough ground to change that.  Does anyone actually think we could beat Hou/NY/Bos in a playoff series?  
Plus we should probably define what "in the hunt" means.  3 games?  5 games?  Where do you draw that line? 
If investing in certain players didnt make enough difference for this year, why would hanging onto others? 
All im saying is this, unless this team is performing well beyond expectations and has a chance at more than a 1 game trip to NY or Bos, then why hold onto those assets?  If we legit have that chance of course you dont, but thats the real question and it isnt an absolute.

[Docwaukee]

It very much depends on how the team is playing overall and where they are at from a health standpoint.  

If they're at .500 and 6 gb of the WC while already going to 7th on the SP depth chart.  Sell.  

If they're at a 90 win pace and 5 gb of the WC but also only 5 gb of the division and the team is playing well.  Don't Sell.  Don't buy.  

If they are within one game of the division, buy.  

If we're taking Trout's need to win into consideration, I certainly think he understands the plan and what Eppler has put together this year but the one thing that might actually piss him off is if the team was in the WC race (around 5 gb or less) and then sold off a bunch of parts.  

Again, the ancillary benefit of having a bunch of guys on one year deals is to get something for them at the deadline should the team be out of it.  Arte isn't spending 30m on the team this year in the hope of accumulating more prospects.  The goal is to win.  

[Docwaukee]

and frankly, I don't give a hoot if we don't match up well on paper to the powerhouses.  If we're that close that far into the season, you give it a shot.  

I have always agreed that anything can happen in the playoffs.  There's a huge difference between trading prospects or bloating payroll above 200mil when you only have a shot at the 2nd WC to start the season vs. being halfway through the season, playing well, and being within a few games.  

you can't take that kind of opportunity away from the players.  

[floplag]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

It very much depends on how the team is playing overall and where they are at from a health standpoint.  

If they're at .500 and 6 gb of the WC while already going to 7th on the SP depth chart.  Sell.  

If they're at a 90 win pace and 5 gb of the WC but also only 5 gb of the division and the team is playing well.  Don't Sell.  Don't buy.  

If they are within one game of the division, buy.  

If we're taking Trout's need to win into consideration, I certainly think he understands the plan and what Eppler has put together this year but the one thing that might actually piss him off is if the team was in the WC race (around 5 gb or less) and then sold off a bunch of parts.  

Again, the ancillary benefit of having a bunch of guys on one year deals is to get something for them at the deadline should the team be out of it.  Arte isn't spending 30m on the team this year in the hope of accumulating more prospects.  The goal is to win.  

Precisely why i said we need to define in the hunt. 

No one is ever going to sell if they have a legitimate chance at the division,  as frustrated as i am at what the team has done or not done i dont think they would do that clearly. 

Youve defined some clear examples, but also hedged your bet a bit on the critical one.  The gray area comes in where lets say they are playing well, on pace for the mid 80s somewhere as expected, but still back of the wild card, no real shot at the division.  Technically thats in the hunt but is it really?   

[Docwaukee]

In 2016, the Yankees were 3 games over .500 and 4.5 games back of the 2nd wild card on July 25th.  

That day they traded Aroldis Chapman to the cubs for Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren, Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford

On the 31st, they traded Andrew Miller for JP Feyereisen, Clint Frazier, Ben Heller, and Justus Sheffield

On the 1st of Augusts they move Carlos Beltran for Nick Green, Erik Swanson and Dillon Tate 

 

Since then, the acquired Paxton for Sheffield and Swanson.  Britton for Tate and a couple other.  Happ for Mckinney and Drury.  Torres is a good you player in their starting lineup and Frazier is still a nice OF depth piece that could probably get a chance to start for a lot of teams.  Someone they could probably use in a trade at some point.  

 

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, floplag said:

Precisely why i said we need to define in the hunt. 

No one is ever going to sell if they have a legitimate chance at the division,  as frustrated as i am at what the team has done or not done i dont think they would do that clearly. 

Youve defined some clear examples, but also hedged your bet a bit on the critical one.  The gray area comes in where lets say they are playing well, on pace for the mid 80s somewhere as expected, but still back of the wild card, no real shot at the division.  Technically thats in the hunt but is it really?   

yes.  that's where it gets tricky.  but if we are within 5 or 6 games of the 2nd WC in that scenario, I don't think they will sell.  Again, if anything is going to annoy Trout it would be to take away a chance to win.  When you get that far into the season, it's a lot different than putting a ton of resources into the team before the season starts to get to that spot.  

But if you're there, you let it play out even if you miss the opportunity.  

If Mike is locked up for the next ten years and doesn't have an opt our for another 4 or 5, maybe it changes your mentality a bit but probably not.  

At the end of the day though, you are right that there are scenarios where it's going to be a really tough choice.  Especially if a couple of the 1yr guys are doing really well and teams are calling to get them.  So the return on them could actually play a factor as well.  If it's for fringy prospects that fill the mid to low top 30 for us then I wouldn't do it.  If someone is willing to give up a top 50 prospect then you have to consider it.  For example, if Harvey were killing it in this scenario and the dogs wanted to trade Keibert Ruiz or Will Smith for him where we could get a cheap C for the next 6 years out of it, boy, that would be tough to pass up.  

[Adam]

We clamor for Sosh to come back by April 17th

[Docwaukee]

21 minutes ago, Adam said:

We clamor for Sosh to come back by April 17th

after Ausmus puts Bedrock in for the 8th and he blows a 1 run lead and then in the 9th he pinch hits Pujols for Ohtani with a lefty on the mound.  

[VariousCrap]

I think this is the season the pitching finally stays healthy.  I think they win 85-88 games and either win the second WC or are very close to doing so.