Team has gotten worse?

[Torridd]

3 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Call me crazy but this team actually looks worse than last year on paper to me. The one big upgrade is Bour over Pujols but we will see if he plays everyday. Also It'd be hard to get worse production than we did out of Valbuena and Marte.

Comes down to the pitching...and man are we throwing shit at the wall and hoping something sticks. Trevor Cahill looks like another Blanton to me. Maybe he's mediocre, maybe he gets blown up like he did in 2017. Matt Harvey? Has upside but will be on the DL by June let's be real. Perfect replacement for Garrett Richards in many ways. Heaney, Skaggs... I think we know what we're getting out of at this point. Slightly above average pitchers. Hopefully Barria won't have a sophomore slump

The offense...kind of a disaster still.Didn't really add much of significance. How long will Ohtani be out? Are Fletcher and Ward MLB hitters? Will Upton regress as he enters his 30s? Calhoun, Cozart, Lucroy...LOL

Overall it's much of the same lousy group as last year that relies far too much on Trout, Ohtani, and Simmons in order to just be mediocre

I don't think it's worse although I admit we have a lot of question marks. I'm not concerned with Upton as I am with Ohtani, if he has a setback and can't hit, and Pujols. I would have preferred to keep Shoemaker but I don't think he'd be an upgrade over Cahill, whom I like. You figure we have to get better luck from the bullpen. I think the key X factors if nothing else is done with the offense is Calhoun, Cozart, and Ward, but we had them last season. So, in summary, I think we can only do worse in the offense if Ohtani is out, the buillpen should be better, and the starters shouldn't be worse. 

[totdprods]

You've gotta be shitting me....I'm going to keep posting this. 

2018 5th SP (Tropeano, Despaigne, McGuire, Lamb, J.C. Ramirez, Noe Ramirez, Johnson, Cole, Bridwell):
32 GS, 122 IP, 9.2 K/9, 2.30 WHIP, 6.88 ERA

Even Matt Harvey's career worst season was better than that. 

Also, Cowart, Valbuena, and Marte combined for one full-time player's worth of appearances.
625 PA, .183/.245/.316/.561, OPS+53, 42 walks, 185 strikeouts and -2.2 WAR. Cowart alone was half of that negative WAR, despite only having 125 PA.

Gonna be pretty hard for any combination of Bour, La Stella, Fletcher, Ward, and Rengifo to be worse than that. 
Even Albert should crush that line.

[floplag]

i dont agree that its gotten worse at all, but i also dont think its gotten significantly better.  It wont likely make the wild card without some of these gambles bringing huge returns.
If i had to guess, id say maybe 86, 87 wins at most, and well miss the playoffs by a few games.  Thats definitely better than the last few years, but not exactly meaningful baseball. 
Dont get too attached to the newbies, i doubt most of them finish the season with us unless they are sucking.  

[Angelsfan1984]

The As, Mariners and Astros will not be as good next year. If the angels can stay healthy and steal 50% more of the games vs those 3 teams they will be in the playoffs 

[Docwaukee]

29 minutes ago, totdprods said:

You've gotta be shitting me....I'm going to keep posting this. 

2018 5th SP (Tropeano, Despaigne, McGuire, Lamb, J.C. Ramirez, Noe Ramirez, Johnson, Cole, Bridwell):
32 GS, 122 IP, 9.2 K/9, 2.30 WHIP, 6.88 ERA

Even Matt Harvey's career worst season was better than that. 

Also, Cowart, Valbuena, and Marte combined for one full-time player's worth of appearances.
625 PA, .183/.245/.316/.561, OPS+53, 42 walks, 185 strikeouts and -2.2 WAR. Cowart alone was half of that negative WAR, despite only having 125 PA.

Gonna be pretty hard for any combination of Bour, La Stella, Fletcher, Ward, and Rengifo to be worse than that. 
Even Albert should crush that line.

if Albert gets that many PA, then something has gone terribly wrong.  

[CanadianHalo]

LOL @ “chance at the playoffs”

 

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

if Albert gets that many PA, then something has gone terribly wrong.  

Well, he got that many in '16 and '17...but I agree.

I'm optimistic on Bert this year. Yes, he was bad in '18, but he legitimately reversed a lot of the bad trends that took root in '17. That's not easy to do at his age.
His BB% stayed the same, his HR% went up almost 2%, he cut his K% by 1.5%, and by playing the field he was at least able to make back some WAR with his defense. And he still managed to hit well with RISP and in clutch situations - he has enough situational awareness and ability to be useful in those specific situations. 

Ideally in 2019 they really start transitioning him into a part-time player, cut his PAs way down, use him less, use him in situations where he's best suited to still produce, and he at least maintains a .250/.300/.400 for another season or two, in an increasingly reduced role. I actually think his slash will improve with the fewer PAs he receives too.

[floplag]

8 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

The As, Mariners and Astros will not be as good next year. If the angels can stay healthy and steal 50% more of the games vs those 3 teams they will be in the playoffs 

I do not think its realistic to think we are competing with Hou for the division personally.  There is no reason to think we are on that level. 
At best we will be in the mix for the second wild card shot, if all goes as good or better than hoped. That means were looking at competing with TB, Min, Oak.
Projections put all three between 82 and 86 wins.  That was before Allen so ill assume weve pulled even with TB projection wise. 
Whoever comes out of that list get to play the loser of the AL who can outspend the other contest for 2019.
That is our chance.

[Jay]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Right now...  Fangraphs has them as an 85 win team.  Last year they had them as an 82 win team on opening day.   It's a projection so it should be taken with a grain of salt but on paper -- they have improved.   85 wins projects to them missing the playoffs.  The Rays are sitting on 86 wins.    https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings   So, they are in the conversation at least.

I think the amount of improvement is less than the margin of error on this calculation.

[Angel Oracle]

13 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Well, he got that many in '16 and '17...but I agree.

I'm optimistic on Bert this year. Yes, he was bad in '18, but he legitimately reversed a lot of the bad trends that took root in '17. That's not easy to do at his age.
His BB% stayed the same, his HR% went up almost 2%, he cut his K% by 1.5%, and by playing the field he was at least able to make back some WAR with his defense. And he still managed to hit well with RISP and in clutch situations - he has enough situational awareness and ability to be useful in those specific situations. 

Ideally in 2019 they really start transitioning him into a part-time player, cut his PAs way down, use him less, use him in situations where he's best suited to still produce, and he at least maintains a .250/.300/.400 for another season or two, in an increasingly reduced role. I actually think his slash will improve with the fewer PAs he receives too.

I see at best something like .240/.290/.390 for Albert in 2019 over say 80-90 games.   His knees and feet have to be pretty much finished for MLB play, after all of that crouching at the plate and multiple surgeries over 18 MLB seasons.   2019 is a good farewell season, since the Halos play a series in St. Louis.   

[VariousCrap]

There are tons of question marks still, but all this team has to do is be healthy and they'll do better than last year.  Bad health killed this team last year.

[Torridd]

9 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

There are tons of question marks still, but all this team has to do is be healthy and they'll do better than last year.  Bad health killed this team last year.

That's a lot to ask.

[Inside Pitch]

47 minutes ago, Jay said:

I think the amount of improvement is less than the margin of error on this calculation.

If you look at their projections you could say the same thing about everyone between 82 and 86 wins.  All of those teams have areas of volatility or could see an influx of young players that the systems often miss on but still could impact the standings in a great way.   Imagine a Twins team where Buxton, Sano and the rest finally get their heads on straight and live up to their billing -- there are cases for and against each of those teams.   You could probably add the Mariners to that list.

Anyway, while I agree I also disagree to an extent if only because I believe the farm is better positioned to provide help than in previous years -- so in that respect the team may have a greater margin of error than in the recent past.

[totdprods]

18 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I see at best something like .240/.290/.390 for Albert in 2019 over say 80-90 games.   His knees and feet have to be pretty much finished for MLB play, after all of that crouching at the plate and multiple surgeries over 18 MLB seasons.   2019 is a good farewell season, since the Halos play a series in St. Louis.   

The week before he was shut down with surgery, his production took a noticeable dive.
8 games, one hit in 32 PA, 7 walks (only one 1 strikeout surprisingly) and a measly .042/.250/.042/.292 slash.

Up until that week, he was sporting a .256/.292/.431/.723 OPS on the season.
If you cut the weeks before his last week, he's still around the same slash and a .730 OPS. 
If you cut a month before his last week, he's still around the same slash and a .730 OPS

Keep cutting his season further and you finally start getting to his recent norm of a .700 OPS, which I agree is probably the best case scenario these days, but once you get past the contract, the player he once was, etc., etc., he's still showing a trend of some stability. He isn't radically up and down like Calhoun can be.

It's really hard to say how he'll rebound in 2019 coming off two surgeries, but I also did not expect him to 'rebound' to the extent he did at age 38 in 2018. 
Not many 37 year olds showing that steady decline can do things like cut K%, maintain BB%, increase HR%, return to the field, and reverse OPS, OPS+, and WAR after he's been through and that tenacity gives me the slightest bit of optimism that, in a reduced role, he can maintain, as gracefully as Pujols is capable of, a .250/.300/.400 line and big hits in PH opportunities. I know that's incredibly rosy and underwhelming at the same time, but don't think it's far-fetched either, and really the best we can hope for from him at least in 2019.

Edited January 18, 2019 by totdprods

[VariousCrap]

3 minutes ago, Torridd said:

That's a lot to ask.

 

Their luck has to change at some point.  The last few years they have had horrible luck.

[stormngt]

42 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

There are tons of question marks still, but all this team has to do is be healthy and they'll do better than last year.  Bad health killed this team last year.

Abd the year before that, and the year before that.

[mulwin444]

"Team has gotten worse?"

No

[Angelsfan1984]

8 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

"Team has gotten worse?"

No

Stop beating around the bush, do you think they have gotten worse?

[Erstad Grit]

7 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Call me crazy but this team actually looks worse than last year on paper to me. The one big upgrade is Bour over Pujols but we will see if he plays everyday. Also It'd be hard to get worse production than we did out of Valbuena and Marte.

Comes down to the pitching...and man are we throwing shit at the wall and hoping something sticks. Trevor Cahill looks like another Blanton to me. Maybe he's mediocre, maybe he gets blown up like he did in 2017. Matt Harvey? Has upside but will be on the DL by June let's be real. Perfect replacement for Garrett Richards in many ways. Heaney, Skaggs... I think we know what we're getting out of at this point. Slightly above average pitchers. Hopefully Barria won't have a sophomore slump

The offense...kind of a disaster still.Didn't really add much of significance. How long will Ohtani be out? Are Fletcher and Ward MLB hitters? Will Upton regress as he enters his 30s? Calhoun, Cozart, Lucroy...LOL

Overall it's much of the same lousy group as last year that relies far too much on Trout, Ohtani, and Simmons in order to just be mediocre

Other than possible Upton regression and ohtani on the shelf,  what areas are angels worse?  You didn't articulate any. 

[robblin17]

5 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They have done exactly what Eppler said they were doing. 

They made as many small short term improvements as they could to give themselves a chance at the playoffs this year, while sacrificing none of the farm system and taking on no large financial commitments. 

They have a chance at 90 wins this year, and next year the farm system will be even better. Remember, an improving farm system helps you in 3 ways: the players play for you, they save you money to spend on established players, they give you capital to spend to trade for other players. A good farm system is the only way to have an extended window of success, so they’ve been operating around that. It’s like having half the store open while you’re doing renovations, as opposed to closing the whole place (tanking).

Next year’s FA’s include OC natives Gerrit Cole and Nolan Arenado. 

 

We're getting Cole and Arenado!? YES!!!

[mancini79]

Regardless of the players, many here believe the team got better with Sosh gone.

I personally believe the player talent is about even from last year.

[Angelsfan1984]

2 minutes ago, mancini79 said:

Regardless of the players, many here believe the team got better with Sosh gone.

I personally believe the player talent is about even from last year.

Everyone will have a career year because of ausmus

[Hubs]

2 hours ago, Jay said:

I think the amount of improvement is less than the margin of error on this calculation.

Fangraphs also has the run differential at 35.

If you look at the Value stats, Runs Against Average in particular, the Angels ended up last year 34 runs above average.

11 players who accounted for -88 RAA are gone. 4 guys who accounted for 13 positive RAR are also gone. That's net -75 just clearing out the underperforming guys.

The guys that are back that were significantly negative are Cozart, Calhoun, Pujols, and Ward. The Angels are expecting better seasons from all four.

 

[beatlesrule]

Not worse. No more Scioscia. More Ohtanti at bats. Pitchers with bigger upside. Less at bats from Pujols. 2nd wild card is a real possibility. 

[T.G.]

10 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Not worse. No more Scioscia. More Ohtanti at bats. Pitchers with bigger upside. Less at bats from Pujols. 2nd World Series title is a real possibility.