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Think about all the fun at this year's trade deadline


Docwaukee

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Just now, Second Base said:

I think Cozart and Calhoun's worst case scenarios are much worse than you think. 

2018 certainly proved anything can happen regarding Calhoun. A .400 OPS for basically two months is nuts. If he does that again, his career is over. I don't think he'll fall that far. An OPS in the low .600s? I can buy that and mentioned it

I don't think Cozart getting a .725 OPS or a best case .750+ OPS is very likely, but don't think he's going to fall dramatically below a ~.250/.300/.400/.700 line quite yet. 

.243/.305/.415/.720 is his three year average if you pull his career year from that, and while there has been decline every season (again, with his career season removed) I still think this is a realistic outcome, although a little on the high side.

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1 hour ago, totdprods said:

2018 certainly proved anything can happen regarding Calhoun. A .400 OPS for basically two months is nuts. If he does that again, his career is over. I don't think he'll fall that far. An OPS in the low .600s? I can buy that and mentioned it

I don't think Cozart getting a .725 OPS or a best case .750+ OPS is very likely, but don't think he's going to fall dramatically below a ~.250/.300/.400/.700 line quite yet. 

.243/.305/.415/.720 is his three year average if you pull his career year from that, and while there has been decline every season (again, with his career season removed) I still think this is a realistic outcome, although a little on the high side.

while I have cited my concerns for starting pitching, my biggest area of concern on the position player side is how 2b/3b plays out.  

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8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

while I have cited my concerns for starting pitching, my biggest area of concern on the position player side is how 2b/3b plays out.  

I still think they might roll the dice on a cheap vet FA if that market continues to move slowly. There’s just too many players left who may have a higher ceiling than Fletcher not to at least consider taking a flier, even from the fringier guys like Cabrera, Forsythe, Solarte, Walker, Harrison, just to see if they get lucky. Fletcher to AAA as the best minor league reinforcement we’ve had in ages 

Would just hope they have a short leash on that player.

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1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Amended....

Kole Calhoun - solidifies with Reed as hitting coach and, in my mind, his likely outcome is a career-norm type season .270/.330/.420/.750 hitter, with great defense and gets picked up at the deadline, saving the Angels some dough and opening RF up for Adell. Worst case scenario is the volatility and decline he's had continues, remains a .600 OPS guy, and is displaced by Adell midseason, and finishes the year as our 4th OF. I actually think there's a slight chance he has a career year as well, maybe starting to turn into more of a 3-outcome player, producing something crazy like .255/.325/.475/.800.

Zack Cozart - plays great defense at both 2B and 3B, hits .275/.330/.430/.760 and either establishes himself as a great piece to have in 2020, or an in-demand trade candidate at the deadline of offseason. I've never though he'd come close to his 2017, but his '15 and '16 seasons hinted that he still might have turned a corner into being a slightly above-average hitter. That'd be the best case. Worst case scenario is also his likely outcome....something along the lines of .260/.310/.390/.700. Coupled with great defense, this isn't really bad, but certainly does nothing to tilt the needle. Loses playing time to the kids and becomes an expensive Cliff Pennington in '20, unless someone buys him off us.

Cozart's best case is a return to 2017 form and wins the Gold Glove at 2nd or 3rd.

Calhoun's best case is probably that his two months of being at top 10 outfielder in baseball turn into 4 months, and he's league average the other two.

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18 minutes ago, BackUpTheTruck said:

"Realist" Scenario:

All of the one year deals are busts.

None of our prospects pan out.

More pitchers get hurt.

Angels keep missing the playoffs.

Trout isn't traded, signs with the Phillies in two years and wins multiple championships.

Sorry for the bad news, better you guys hear it from someone you love.

https://goo.gl/images/SYHhRM

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9 minutes ago, BackUpTheTruck said:

"Realist" Scenario:

All of the one year deals are busts.

None of our prospects pan out.

More pitchers get hurt.

Angels keep missing the playoffs.

Trout isn't traded, signs with the Phillies in two years and wins multiple championships.

Sorry for the bad news, better you guys hear it from someone you love.

that's not realistic at all.  

realistic is that half the one year deals do decently with at least one guy doing very well.  

one of Calhoun or Cozart is a bust while the other does decently/solid

one, maybe two pitchers get hurt and we cover it with our depth.  One of canning or Suarez does well.  The other struggles.  One of Trop or Pena cover some starts in admirable fashion while the other doesn't perform all that well.  

one of Fletcher, Ward or Rengifo does well ie avg or slightly above where the other struggle.  

One of La Stella and Bour does well.  The other just ok.  

the pen is solid but not great yet improves when we get JC and Middleton back mid year.  

Ohtani has a slow start coming off injury.  

Albert is still terrible.  

Trout, Simmons, and Upton are who they are.  

we get mostly defensive production from C.  

the Angels are a borderline WC2 contender near the deadline being on pace for about 83/84 wins.  

Some of our prospects have bad years.  A few others break out.  Most stay level and progress appropriately.  

We trade a couple of our expiring contracts getting some solid additional depth.  Maybe a borderline top 100. 

Some guys come up when rosters expand and a couple show us that they are worthy of being a starter next year 

We finish the year with 84 wins.  7 back of the WC.  

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37 minutes ago, BackUpTheTruck said:

"Realist" Scenario:

All of the one year deals are busts.

None of our prospects pan out.

More pitchers get hurt.

Angels keep missing the playoffs.

Trout isn't traded, signs with the Phillies in two years and wins multiple championships.

Sorry for the bad news, better you guys hear it from someone you love.

 

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

that's not realistic at all.  

realistic is that half the one year deals do decently with at least one guy doing very well.  

one of Calhoun or Cozart is a bust while the other does decently/solid

one, maybe two pitchers get hurt and we cover it with our depth.  One of canning or Suarez does well.  The other struggles.  One of Trop or Pena cover some starts in admirable fashion while the other doesn't perform all that well.  

one of Fletcher, Ward or Rengifo does well ie avg or slightly above where the other struggle.  

One of La Stella and Bour does well.  The other just ok.  

the pen is solid but not great yet improves when we get JC and Middleton back mid year.  

Ohtani has a slow start coming off injury.  

Albert is still terrible.  

Trout, Simmons, and Upton are who they are.  

we get mostly defensive production from C.  

the Angels are a borderline WC2 contender near the deadline being on pace for about 83/84 wins.  

Some of our prospects have bad years.  A few others break out.  Most stay level and progress appropriately.  

We trade a couple of our expiring contracts getting some solid additional depth.  Maybe a borderline top 100. 

Some guys come up when rosters expand and a couple show us that they are worthy of being a starter next year 

We finish the year with 84 wins.  7 back of the WC.  

My eyes.

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11 hours ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Why go after arenado when you can have George fuzzytaint in 2029. I’m ok with this off-season based on 1 year deals but at some point they need to establish a team that can compete. Every year we hear, must be waiting for next years FA class...only to do nothing major 

FUZZYTAINT '29!

Only question is, who will be his running mate?

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9 hours ago, BackUpTheTruck said:

"Realist" Scenario:

All of the one year deals are busts.

None of our prospects pan out.

More pitchers get hurt.

Angels keep missing the playoffs.

Trout isn't traded, signs with the Phillies in two years and wins multiple championships.

Sorry for the bad news, better you guys hear it from someone you love.

Clown scenario...

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12 hours ago, BackUpTheTruck said:

"Realist" Scenario:

All of the one year deals are busts.

None of our prospects pan out.

More pitchers get hurt.

Angels keep missing the playoffs.

Trout isn't traded, signs with the Phillies in two years and wins multiple championships.

Sorry for the bad news, better you guys hear it from someone you love.

when will that guy be posting his scenario? 

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7 hours ago, BackUpTheTruck said:

@Dochalo

I'm more optimistic than you are. I think we are buyers at the deadline (assuming the team actually has weaknesses at that time). 

This team has talent at every position, I don't think 100 wins is out of the question. 84 is what you get if everything goes wrong IMO.

Oh I'm more optimistic than the picture I painted.  I think way more good stuff is gonna happen than I mentioned.  

I've got high hopes for the lineup and think it will be top 5 in baseball (by WAR) if you include defense.  I think Kole will have a solid season from the leadoff spot until Rengifo takes over for Cozart who I think is gonna struggle.  

I think the pen is going to be a strong point for this team.  

The rotation is going to make the difference between 88 and 95 wins.  I think Cahill will be about the same as last year with more innings and Heaney will be similar as well.  Barria might take a small step back but he'll still be a solid #5 and someone from our depth pool will step up.  The key is going to be Skaggs turning a corner and becoming a top of the rotation guy.  He's got the stuff.  He needs to have a truly healthy season.  And then there's Harvey who could pitch like a #1 or a #5 and anywhere in between.  He's the key.  

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On 1/18/2019 at 6:40 AM, Angelsfan1984 said:

Why go after arenado when you can have George fuzzytaint in 2029. I’m ok with this off-season based on 1 year deals but at some point they need to establish a team that can compete. Every year we hear, must be waiting for next years FA class...only to do nothing major 

Everyone knows fuzzytaint wants to play on the East Coast.

Angels will be runners-up though.

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8 hours ago, Lou said:

when will that guy be posting his scenario? 

 

6 hours ago, BackUpTheTruck said:

The lineup won't have any black holes in it, unlike last year when we had several. The offense is improved, the starting pitching has nowhere to go but up health wise, and the bullpen has improved.

Lucroy hits slightly above .250, Pujols and Bour combine for 30 plus home runs, Fletcher breaks out and hits over .300, Calhoun hits around .275 with a career high in home runs.

The biggest question mark in the lineup, for me, is Cozart. If he can't perform close to his career norms, Ward, LaStella, or Rengifo should take his place.

Matt Harvey is the biggest wild card in the rotation. All five starters are capable of maintaining ERA's under 4, although I think Harvey stays between 4-4.5.

As long as Ausmus is wise enough not to have Cam Bedrosian pitch in high leverage situations, the bullpen will be very good. Cody Allen likely bounces back in a contract year.

I think the Angels are good enough to compete to win every night. The blowout losses should be rare. I expect the Angels to have many leads after the 5th inning, which is why a dominant bullpen is so important.

I think the Angels make the Astros sweat this time, but they probably win the division again.

I have a hard time believing that Oakland, Tampa, or an AL central team finishes with a better record than the Angels this year. They should get into the tournament. If they do, who knows, maybe they get hot and surprise us.

 

image.jpeg

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