Dallas Keuchel

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I think when you lose that second round pick you also lose that draft money as well.  We could also take higher upside guys in rounds 6-10 instead of taking college seniors that you can sign for $10k. 

I figured that - but as you pointed out, they could also alter their draft strategy to compensate for losing that pick and that money, and after three years of the ‘same’ draft, it might not be bad to mix it up for one season to balance the system out a bit. That strategy has worked so I get not straying from it, but one draft a little more focused on college player, high floor, safe bets could help fill in the gaps a bit.

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

I figured that - but as you pointed out, they could also alter their draft strategy to compensate for losing that pick and that money, and after three years of the ‘same’ draft, it might not be bad to mix it up for one season to balance the system out a bit. That strategy has worked so I get not straying from it, but one draft a little more focused on college player, high floor, safe bets could help fill in the gaps a bit.

Didn’t they do that this past June with pitching (a lot of college pitchers drafted from round 3 through round 13)?

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Didn’t they do that this past June with pitching (a lot of college pitchers drafted from round 3 through round 13)?

 

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

I figured that - but as you pointed out, they could also alter their draft strategy to compensate for losing that pick and that money, and after three years of the ‘same’ draft, it might not be bad to mix it up for one season to balance the system out a bit. That strategy has worked so I get not straying from it, but one draft a little more focused on college player, high floor, safe bets could help fill in the gaps a bit.

all of this is correct including taking low bonus guys from 6-10.  

the last two first rounders are the classic fast rising super high ceiling guys.  2nd rounders in all 3 years were guys that could have been 1st rounders but slipped for whatever reason.  

round 3-5 for high upside HS or college Jrs.  

6-10 are as mentioned for the most part (Duensing in 2016 rd 6).  Mostly college guys with a higher floor.  Position players in 2016, almost all pitching the last two years.  Guys that are likely to be relievers.  

11-15 are more higher upside again.  some tough sign college guys and HSers.   

then whatever's left with college guys through 35

then a bunch of unsignable HS guys for the rest where you might get lucky if you've got money left.  

I think you see the influence of Ric Wilson still being the farm director with the Thaiss pick and a bunch of high floor position players in the early rounds.  

 

 

[DCAngelsFan]

16 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

This isn't quite true: he lost velocity after 2015, his Cy Young year, but has been very consistence since, even trending slightly up in 2018.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=9434&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2015&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

Yes, his velocity (such as it is) is consistent - not sure where that canard is coming from.

However, last season saw a decline in his K rate, increases in contact rates, and his WHIP, which isn't great at 1.31.  His GB% rate is way down (53.7% in 2018 vs. 66.8% in 2017) and the percentage of hard hit balls was up significantly.   It's one season, but ...

Problem with a guy like Keuchel is he's like Weaver - he's very reliant on command, and as it declines, one day, the camel's back will break, and he'll suddenly be a bp pitcher. 

When that happens - next year, 3 years from now - that's the gamble.