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Dallas Keuchel


Docwaukee

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1 hour ago, WeaverFever said:

I am not saying I want to sign this guy, nor do I think it is a good idea. I’m just wondering about the significance of a “top  5 farm?” Once we reach D a “top 5 farm” is that when we are able to trade off assets? Does a “top 5 farm” guarantee wins at the big league level?

Maybe I am well off. I just don’t see the significance in a big retirement savings plan when a person doesn’t plan on using the savings in the first place. So I don’t see a point in the necessity in a “top 5 farm” if that means passing on the right fits IF that happens in free agency or through trades. 

The biggest upside to a high tier farm system is cost-controlled talent that you can utilize on your big league roster for half a decade.  Obviously that's best case scenario since so few of these guys actually become big league regulars, but it gives you options to keep your club from overspending in free agency as well as using your surplus of chips to fill holes and push you into the upper echelon of contention (grabbing a Manny Machado during the trade deadline, etc.).

What's screwed the Angels over the past 5-10 years has been the worst of both worlds; namely a shitty farm system as well as an overpaid, underperforming big league roster hampered by endless pitching injuries.  It isn't really possible to build a championship caliber club through FA anymore, you need to build from within and then supplement holes in free agency (e.g. Houston, Yankees, etc.).  This is hopefully what Eppler is trying to accomplish and why we aren't blowing our load on players that will remove draft picks or only help in the near term.  This will piss some fans off, but long term it is a solid approach.

 

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12 minutes ago, Reveille1984 said:

The biggest upside to a high tier farm system is cost-controlled talent that you can utilize on your big league roster for half a decade.  Obviously that's best case scenario since so few of these guys actually become big league regulars, but it gives you options to keep your club from overspending in free agency as well as using your surplus of chips to fill holes and push you into the upper echelon of contention (grabbing a Manny Machado during the trade deadline, etc.).

What's screwed the Angels over the past 5-10 years has been the worst of both worlds; namely a shitty farm system as well as an overpaid, underperforming big league roster hampered by endless pitching injuries.  It isn't really possible to build a championship caliber club through FA anymore, you need to build from within and then supplement holes in free agency (e.g. Houston, Yankees, etc.).  This is hopefully what Eppler is trying to accomplish and why we aren't blowing our load on players that will remove draft picks or only help in the near term.  This will piss some fans off, but long term it is a solid approach.

 

This is exactly what Eppler is doing. The only current holes we will have in terms of depth will be 3B, and Catcher. That's where the Angels could fill the holes in free agency in the future. 

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7 hours ago, Second Base said:

Continued loss of velocity that has matched Weavers plus draft pick compensation. Hard pass.

This isn't quite true: he lost velocity after 2015, his Cy Young year, but has been very consistence since, even trending slightly up in 2018.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=9434&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2015&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

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I was pretty against signing Keuchel, but have softened a bit. 2015 was a career year, and he missed some games in 2016-17, so 2018 is more his true talent level, I think: he threw 204 innings, 3.74 ERA (3.69 FIP), 3.6 fWAR. That makes him better than any of the Angels starters - or at least as good as Heaney and Skaggs should be, if they're healthy. 

That said, he would replace Barria, who would then become the #6 starter and first fill-in for the inevitably injured starters. I'm not sure the extra $20 million a year is worth it.

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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I was pretty against signing Keuchel, but have softened a bit. 2015 was a career year, and he missed some games in 2016-17, so 2018 is more his true talent level, I think: he threw 204 innings, 3.74 ERA (3.69 FIP), 3.6 fWAR. That makes him better than any of the Angels starters - or at least as good as Heaney and Skaggs should be, if they're healthy. 

That said, he would replace Barria, who would then become the #6 starter and first fill-in for the inevitably injured starters. I'm not sure the extra $20 million a year is worth it.

Yeah, at $20M per it isn't at all enticing.  Once you start talking about maybe $15M or less though for only 3-4 seasons, it becomes more intriguing (though there's probably a <10% chance of his market drying up that badly).  

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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I was pretty against signing Keuchel, but have softened a bit. 2015 was a career year, and he missed some games in 2016-17, so 2018 is more his true talent level, I think: he threw 204 innings, 3.74 ERA (3.69 FIP), 3.6 fWAR. That makes him better than any of the Angels starters - or at least as good as Heaney and Skaggs should be, if they're healthy. 

That said, he would replace Barria, who would then become the #6 starter and first fill-in for the inevitably injured starters. I'm not sure the extra $20 million a year is worth it.

Same here. Had zero interest in him, but in the context of the offseason I’m a little more open to it now. Keuchel, Skaggs, Harvey, Heaney, Cahill could be quite a solid rotation, and I’m not sure his market is going to be as strong as anticipated. If that leads to a reasonable contract, I’d consider it.

Don’t go crazy on years, don’t hamstring the team financially, and don’t give him a full NTC, and it might work out fine for all. Yeah, we lose a draft pick, but I see Ohtani/Maitan/Soto/Contreras(?) as bonus picks last year in a way, and if we don’t give him a full NTC, we may be able to recoup that later on.

Edited by totdprods
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And our second round pick is 55th overall, people really seem to over-value draft picks after the first round.  Players drafted around 50-60 that make the majors average around 2 WAR total pre-free agency, with 85-90% of them never sniffing a big league roster:

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

 

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48 minutes ago, Reveille1984 said:

And our second round pick is 55th overall, people really seem to over-value draft picks after the first round.  Players drafted around 50-60 that make the majors average around 2 WAR total pre-free agency, with 85-90% of them never sniffing a big league roster:

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

 

This is where @Second Base comes in telling us about Marsh, Jones, Canning...which he has a point. Even if those guys don’t pan out, at this time, the three of them have crazy trade value - probably more than 2nd rounders have ever had, given baseball’s prospect valuing climate.

But another thing to remember - the Angels also selected players earlier than projected for their 1st rounders those drafts, allowing them some financial wiggle room to aggressively go after the best possible 2nd rounder. What’s to say that, losing their second round pick, they deviate a bit and change their 1st around strategy for this draft, and go after some who will require more money/above-slot.

Edited by totdprods
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7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

This is where @Second Base comes in telling us about Marsh, Jones, Canning...which he has a point. Even if those guys don’t pan out, at this time, the three of them have crazy trade value - probably more than 2nd rounders have ever had, given baseball’s prospect valuing climate.

But another thing to remember - the Angels also selected players earlier than projected for their 1st rounders those drafts, allowing them some financial wiggle room to aggressively go after the best possible 2nd rounder. What’s to say that, losing their second round pick, they deviate a bit and change their 1st around strategy for this draft, and go after some who will require more money/above-slot.

Thaiss was taken 10-15 picks early. But other than him, Adell and Adam's look like they were picked right where expected.

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4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Thaiss was taken 10-15 picks early. But other than him, Adell and Adam's look like they were picked right where expected.

I recall both being reasonably expected to be taken in the 1st round, but still a slight industry surprise to have been taken quite that early, though it was sort of expected given what the Angels were looking for. 

And both were not big above-slot signings either, so even if they were picked where appropriately projected, the Angels saved some bucks taking HS kids that early, allowing them to chase upside 2nd round. 

They coild theoretically lose that 2nd rounder this year and go after someone who will be a little more advanced or require overslot to sign, and that may align with adding young talent to the 2020-2023 teams.

Edited by totdprods
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5 minutes ago, jordan said:

Keuchel doesn’t interest me at this time. He seems like such a finicky pitcher.  Gotta be a reason thus far that the Astros don’t seem to be in on him when they need pitching. 

That’s one of the biggest red flags to me. They’re without Morton, McCullers already in 2019, and Cole and Verlander hit FA at the end of the year. 

They either have a ton of faith in their farm producing in the rotation immediately, or are comfortable acquiring more SP as needed.

Edited by totdprods
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27 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I recall both being reasonably expected to be taken in the 1st round, but still a slight industry surprise to have been taken quite that early, though it was sort of expected given what the Angels were looking for. 

And both were not big above-slot signings either, so even if they were picked where appropriately projected, the Angels saved some bucks taking HS kids that early, allowing them to chase upside 2nd round. 

They coild theoretically lose that 2nd rounder this year and go after someone who will be a little more advanced or require overslot to sign, and that may align with adding young talent to the 2020-2023 teams.

I think when you lose that second round pick you also lose that draft money as well.  We could also take higher upside guys in rounds 6-10 instead of taking college seniors that you can sign for $10k. 

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26 minutes ago, totdprods said:

That’s one of the biggest red flags to me. They’re without Morton, McCullers already in 2019, and Cole and Verlander hit FA at the end of the year. 

They either have a ton of faith in their farm producing in the rotation immediately, or are comfortable acquiring more SP as needed.

I think they aren’t resigning him because they have all the other younger guys to consider the next couple of years. 

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