Are we cutting Eppler too much slack?

[Roy Hobbs]

17 minutes ago, Merlot said:

I personally think that trade is an A.  Bandy, in his 2 years in Mil. has a combined -1.0 WAR.  Maldonado had a total of +2.1 WAR for the Angels.  Sure, they have Bandy for a few more years, but at this point he is hurting them, not helping.

Bandy signed with the Rangers in November.He is now 3rd on the depth chart behind Jeff Mathis.I agree with you it was a great trade.

[angelsnationtalk]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I get that he walked into a wasteland of payroll and farm system issues. 

But when he's had money or made trades, how has that worked out in reference to how it's helped the major league club?  

Let's take a look at his major league acquisitions:

I can't really count the positions where he was forced to draw from the bottom of the barrel for the above reasons (like trying to get blood out of a Nava/Gentry turnip)

2016
Simmons - A+.  
Yunel Escobar - B-/C+
Nolasco - C- 

2017
Maldonado - B (includes giving up bandy, his performance and getting Sandoval in return)
Danny Espinosa - F
Revere/Maybin - C- 
Upton - B (trade + extension) 
Valbuena (RIP) - D-
Chavez - D

2018
Kinsler - B (boosted because he was able to spin him for Buttrey/Jerez)
Ohtani - A+
Cozart - inc (first trimester grade is a D)
 

Additional bonus points awarded for Marte's first year, Chacin's not horrible year who he got for zero, JC Ramirez, Yusmeiro Petit, Blake Parker, David Hernandez, Felix Pena, and Hansel Robles.  

I don't think we need to play the 'if he had more to spend game'.  He had specific resources available and used them as above.  

Overall, I think this translates to a B/B- and that's just for the major league club of course.  I thought it would be worse when I first started thinking about it.  

 

 

 

I like Eppler a lot, I just worry that he or Arte is saying “I’m going to find a project and hope they have a career year.” The only established players that we’ve got that are good are Simmons and Ohtani... maybe Upton. 

Everyone else has had one or two decent years like a Cozart and that’s about it...

[Blarg]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I get that he walked into a wasteland of payroll and farm system issues. 

But when he's had money or made trades, how has that worked out in reference to how it's helped the major league club?  

Let's take a look at his major league acquisitions:

I can't really count the positions where he was forced to draw from the bottom of the barrel for the above reasons (like trying to get blood out of a Nava/Gentry turnip)

2016
Simmons - A+.  
Yunel Escobar - B-/C+
Nolasco - C- 

2017
Maldonado - B (includes giving up bandy, his performance and getting Sandoval in return)
Danny Espinosa - F
Revere/Maybin - C- 
Upton - B (trade + extension) 
Valbuena (RIP) - D-
Chavez - D

2018
Kinsler - B (boosted because he was able to spin him for Buttrey/Jerez)
Ohtani - A+
Cozart - inc (first trimester grade is a D)
 

Additional bonus points awarded for Marte's first year, Chacin's not horrible year who he got for zero, JC Ramirez, Yusmeiro Petit, Blake Parker, David Hernandez, Felix Pena, and Hansel Robles.  

I don't think we need to play the 'if he had more to spend game'.  He had specific resources available and used them as above.  

Overall, I think this translates to a B/B- and that's just for the major league club of course.  I thought it would be worse when I first started thinking about it.  

 

 

 

Now let's filter the list to long term players and their value. When you think about it, everyone else were one/two year contracts except for Cozart and he is just a place marker at three years.

What Eppler has added for the long term shows more about his GM abilities over the patchwork of players just to field a team. He hasn't made a bad mistake contract so far. His pedecessor managed three of which one is still problematic 7 years later. The other two already did their damage which caused some of the shortfalls in minor league talent when prospects were traded to bolster the parent team roster. 

Given more money, Eppler may have been able to accelerate the rebuild but without the overhaul of the analytics and farm system the extra cash wouldn't have made a long term impact. 

But it would have made a splash.

 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

To be honest, I almost overlook Eppler's trades and signings to a certain extent, and am more favorably impressed by his ability to fix organizational issues. 

For example, before DiPoto came in, the international operation had been gutted - and it seemed when he brought Servais, he was going to focus on rebuilding the international scouting and development operation. But DiPoto's horrendous mismanagement of the Baldoquin signing was beyond embarrassing - if nothing else, once in penalty, we should've signed as many players as we could - like the Red Sox and Yankees did.  Pretty much his entire stamp on out international system - Baldoquin.  Eppler landing Ohtani makes him look like a genius by comparison.

Similarly, his drafts look more solid than DiPoto's - though that can be a bit difficult to be certain of - I make fun of the draft room's reaction to Ward being drafted, but it's not like a bunch of guys behind him are lighting up the majors, either.

It just seems that when DiPoto left, there was nothing - no internationals or talent in the farm, no flexibility in the payroll, and much of the nuts and bolts of the organization, like player development, seemed underfunded and floundering - seriously, no reason to be optimistic forever.

Now, through scotch tape and baling wire, he's managed to improve our talent overall, and at least given us some reason for optimism. 

He's not a magician, but things *feel* better these days.   

 

I see where you are coming from for sure.  I think one of my takeaways from Eppler being in charge is that it's not scotch tape or bailing wire or dip spit or gorilla glue.  He broke everything down.  Not only was the foundation cracked and unstable, the entire thing was on shaky ground.  So he picked a new location and built a new base but has been able to recycle a lot of the materials.  If he can keep the main steel girder holding everything together, then the rebuild will go much more quickly.  

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

Now let's filter the list to long term players and their value. When you think about it, everyone else were one/two year contracts except for Cozart and he is just a place marker at three years.

What Eppler has added for the long term shows more about his GM abilities over the patchwork of players just to field a team. He hasn't made a bad mistake contract so far. His pedecessor managed three of which one is still problematic 7 years later. The other two already did their damage which caused some of the shortfalls in minor league talent when prospects were traded to bolster the parent team roster. 

Given more money, Eppler may have been able to accelerate the rebuild but without the overhaul of the analytics and farm system the extra cash wouldn't have made a long term impact. 

But it would have made a splash.

 

I just did that.  

[mulwin444]

No

[UndertheHalo]

My view of Eppler is a pretty positive.  But his job is changing.  When he first took over the job was to install an organizational infrastructure for acquiring and developing amateur talent.  He’s done that seemingly well.  We’ll really see in this regard once these players start being expected to get up to the majors.   So far so good tho.  

I think that aspect of the job as a principle focus is starting to shift tho.  Soon, it’s going to start being reasonable for fans to expect steps forward at the major league level.  He was great I think, with Simmons, Upton and of course Ohtani.  These were undoubtedly huge wins for the club and Eppler.  But 3 or 4 years in the GM needs to have more then 3 notches in his belt at the major league level.  As a fan, I think I’m pretty patient.  I’ve bought in on waiting for them to get their ducks lined up.  But I think that after this season.  I’m going to start wanting to see results from the Angels.  Otherwise it’ll be pretty disappointing and I think it’ll start becoming fair to question whether Epplers road map is working. 

They have prospects.  Several in the upper echelons of the system.  They have several very good players at the major league level who are in their primes.  The Angels and Eppler can’t let that slip away.  So they need to start pushing chips in and be aggressive.  Soon.  This offseason for example.  I would say that they have not been aggressive.  And I think it is fair to have this view point.  The Angels chose to do this half rebuild half compete model.  If it doesn’t work fans should be allowed to be critical.  

Edited January 8, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[Capital_Dave]

His courtship and landing of Ohtani, in and of itself, merits an extension and a full-letter-grade bump.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

My view of Eppler is a pretty positive.  But his job is changing.  When he first took over the job was to install an organizational infrastructure for acquiring and developing amateur talent.  He’s done that seemingly well.  We’ll really see in this regard once these players start being expected to get up to the majors.   So far so good tho.  

I think that aspect of the job as a principle focus is starting to shift tho.  Soon, it’s going to start being reasonable for fans to expect steps forward at the major league level.  He was great I think, with Simmons, Upton and of course Ohtani.  These were undoubtedly huge wins for the club and Eppler.  But 3 or 4 years in the GM needs to have more then 3 notches in his belt at the major league level.  As a fan, I think I’m pretty patient.  I’ve bought in on waiting for them to get their ducks lined up.  But I think that after this season.  I’m going to start wanting to see results from the Angels.  Otherwise it’ll be pretty disappointing and I think it’ll start becoming fair to question whether Epplers road map is working. 

They have prospects.  Several in the upper echelons of the system.  They have several very good players at the major league level who are in their primes.  The Angels and Eppler can’t let that slip away.  So they need to start pushing chips in and be aggressive.  Soon.  This offseason for example.  I would say that they have not been aggressive.  And I think it is fair to have this view point.  The Angels chose to do this half rebuild half compete model.  If it doesn’t work fans should be allowed to be critical.  

gotta be very careful right here.  

[UndertheHalo]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

gotta be very careful right here.  

You’re definitely right that it’s tricky.  But they also have to be careful to not blow it completely with Trout and Simmons and even Upton.  There is the chance that you miss your chance to compete with these guys if you keep playing for a year or two down the road.  Even if we sign Simmons and Trout.  We could see them on the down slope pretty quickly.  This is less of an issue with Trout but with Simmons.  I mean, he’ll be 32 here pretty quickly.  Upton is even closer to that age.  It would be extremely unfortunate if they don’t figure out a way to at least get to a couple of post seasons with these players.  At some point you have to take your shot. Even if it isn’t a perfect one. 

Edited January 8, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[Second Base]

I sort of feel like Billy Eppler is Dan Marino right now. He's insanely good at his job. Amazing at it even, particularly when you consider he hasn't done this job for very long. And he's a stand up guy and knows what he's working for. He wasn't looking for just any GM job. The D-Backs wanted to interview him and he was seen as the favorite to be hired there. Billy Eppler declined to interview for Arizona. He wantethe right circumstance, and the Angels are the circumstance he was looking to be in.

But the fact is, no matter how good Dan Marino was at his job, what so many people count mot among quarterbacks unfortunately, is whether or not they win in the big game. Marino never did it. Whether it was his fault or not, Dan Marino was never a champion. 

The fact is, Billy Eppler has yet to build a winner. And that's where it counts, whether or not the team you're in charge of building, is a playoff team. Whether it's Eppler's fault or not, the Angels haven't made the playoffs and are hardly contenders.

There are some aspects that Eppler has aced. No one takes the worst farm in maybe all MLB history, and turns into a juggernaut that's at worse an average farm, and at best, an elite farm, in a matter of three years. Things just don't happen that fast, but under Billy Eppler, they have. The same goes for their international presence. The Angels went from nothing, to suddenly being a major player on the international scene. Ohtani chose the Angels. Maitan chose the Angels. Deveaux and Knowles from the Bahamas, chose the Angels. The top performer at the IPL and also the youngest top prospect, Alex Ramirez, chose the Angels.

For the long term health of this team, Billy Eppler has built the infrastructure, drafted the right players, and signed the right players. Their future appears to be very bright. But the main goal of this job is to win. And like it or not, Billy Eppler hasn't won yet, and it doesn't look like 2019 will be any different right now. 

Who knows, maybe Billy's future isn't as a General Manager, but more as a farm director. 

I'm not calling for him to be replaced right now. But if the Angels don't win in 2020 or 2021, and if Mike Trout leaves, THEN it's time to find a new GM. But we've got a long way to go before then. 

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

You’re definitely right that it’s trickery.  But they also have to be careful to not blow it completely with Trout and Simmons and even Upton.  There is the chance that you miss your chance to compete with these guys if you keep playing for a year or two down the road.  Even if we sign Simmons and Trout.  We could see them on the down slope pretty quickly.  This is less of an issue with Trout but with Simmons.  I mean, he’ll be 32 here pretty quickly.  Upton is even closer to that age.  It would be extremely unfortunate if they don’t figure out a way to at least get to a couple of post seasons with these players.  At some point you have to take your shot. Even if it isn’t a perfect one. 

It's never going to be perfect.  No matter if you wait or go now.  

I've always felt that if you've put yourself in a situation where it's 'now or never' or 'all or nothing' then you have set yourself up for failure and to think like that is to go down the wrong path.  I also think that either of those is much different than going all in.  

I believe that Eppler is trying to set this franchise up to go all in at some point but not to have to choose between all or nothing.  

To continue with the poker analogy, being short stacked and going all in is much different than doing so with a big stack.  

I have no idea when that time is, but to me it doesn't feel like the time.  Right now, it feels more like all or nothing.  

[DCAngelsFan]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I see where you are coming from for sure.  I think one of my takeaways from Eppler being in charge is that it's not scotch tape or bailing wire or dip spit or gorilla glue.  He broke everything down.  Not only was the foundation cracked and unstable, the entire thing was on shaky ground.  So he picked a new location and built a new base but has been able to recycle a lot of the materials.  If he can keep the main steel girder holding everything together, then the rebuild will go much more quickly.  

Heh, re-reading what I wrote, kinda lost my train of thought - but you got what I was on about - while I don't have direct knowledge, I get the impression that those foundational, nuts-and-bolts aspects of the organization have been rebuilt - and again, no direct knowledge, but I had the feeling that under DiPoto those areas were neglected.  I thought, perhaps, it was Arte being cheap - but if Eppler has made those improvements where DiPoto didn't, well, maybe it wasn't Arte.  

The scotch tape and baling wire is more a reference to the major league roster, with payroll and, uh, "positional" limits we have in the form of an albertross contract as well as the dead farm that gave him almost no capital with which to trade for impact players in positions of need.  He's managed to improve the roster, incrementally, to be sure, while still rebuilding what we all hope, at least, is a pipeline of talent from the minors.  

Time will tell - the number of things that can still go wrong seem to outnumber the things we hope go right.  This time next year, I think there will be a much stronger consensus on Eppler.

 

 

[zenmaster]

He's done wonders for our farm and preparing us for the future. He seems to be doing a good job working with the constraints his has.

[T.G.]

We have high expectations and so far, those expectations have yet to be met.  While we see some improvements in the farm system and in the overall philosophy of how they're building the team, we have yet to see the team get to the post season under Eppler.  I think most of us are cautiously optimistic. We see enough to give him the benefit of the doubt, and yet - we also reserve the right to decide he's not doing enough.

This is a pivotal year for Eppler.  He now has "his guy" as the manager and his finger prints are all over the coaching staff and overall front office staff.  It's also the last year of his contract. 

We want two things.  A deep run into the post season and a Mike Trout extension.  Those are the two highest priorities for most fans.  Eppler's running out of time to accomplish both and anything less will most likely be unacceptable for most Angel fans.

[Torridd]

19 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I get that he walked into a wasteland of payroll and farm system issues. 

But when he's had money or made trades, how has that worked out in reference to how it's helped the major league club?  

Let's take a look at his major league acquisitions:

I can't really count the positions where he was forced to draw from the bottom of the barrel for the above reasons (like trying to get blood out of a Nava/Gentry turnip)

2016
Simmons - A+.  
Yunel Escobar - B-/C+
Nolasco - C- 

2017
Maldonado - B (includes giving up bandy, his performance and getting Sandoval in return)
Danny Espinosa - F
Revere/Maybin - C- 
Upton - B (trade + extension) 
Valbuena (RIP) - D-
Chavez - D

2018
Kinsler - B (boosted because he was able to spin him for Buttrey/Jerez)
Ohtani - A+
Cozart - inc (first trimester grade is a D)
 

Additional bonus points awarded for Marte's first year, Chacin's not horrible year who he got for zero, JC Ramirez, Yusmeiro Petit, Blake Parker, David Hernandez, Felix Pena, and Hansel Robles.  

I don't think we need to play the 'if he had more to spend game'.  He had specific resources available and used them as above.  

Overall, I think this translates to a B/B- and that's just for the major league club of course.  I thought it would be worse when I first started thinking about it.  

 

 

 

I'm getting frustrated with the picayune pickups, but I don't know if Arte is curtailing his moves with payroll. Before 2018, I really enjoyed the moves he made and Ohtani was a coup this past season. I would definitely say he has at least another year of slack.

[Torridd]

19 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

I'll keep it simple re: Eppler. If he doesn't make the playoffs at least once over the next two seasons and cannot sign Trout to an extension or if he won't sign here (and wants to test FA) get a significant package for him via a trade, he''ll be complete failure as GM.

 

17 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

It is worth pointing out that he’s made semi-competitive offers, reportedly. He just hasn’t overpaid. IMO, this isn’t the off-season to flex financial muscle. His approach of trying to get better guys at a firm price isn’t a bad idea this year as far as I’m concerned. If he does this again next year, I’ll be more concerned. 

Not being sarcastic and I've read this multiple times, but which offseason is worth flexing financial muscle? Are we looking for a particular player and why? Or am I off base and this is solely about the money? Is Arte waiting for Albert to go off the books? If so, that's a bummer for me.

[Chuck]

Of the top FA's this offseason and next, I like Arenado the best. 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

Of the top FA's this offseason and next, I like Arenado the best. 

Gerrit Cole please.  

[floplag]

39 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Of the top FA's this offseason and next, I like Arenado the best. 

 

38 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Gerrit Cole please.  

The thesis for this board in 2 lines
There are those who value pitching and those who value offense.
I like both but would prefer Arrenado as i think most starters are much more overpayed than position players and only affect 1 day in 5 over all 5.  But thats just my opinion.  

[Chuck]

I'll take both! 

[Hubs]

2020

Cole, Ohtani, Harvey, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria is a heck of a rotation...even switching out Skaggs or Heaney or Harvey for Canning, and it's still great.

The pen will need some work, but I have faith in Key, Buttrey, Cole and Anderson being the basis for a good to great affordable pen.

The offense, led by Trout, Upton, Adell, Ohtani...with Simmons, Bour, Cozart, Ward, Fletcher, and maybe what Lucroy as C? Not too shabby.

 

[Pancake Bear]

54 minutes ago, Torridd said:

 

Not being sarcastic and I've read this multiple times, but which offseason is worth flexing financial muscle? Are we looking for a particular player and why? Or am I off base and this is solely about the money? Is Arte waiting for Albert to go off the books? If so, that's a bummer for me.

We have a number of potential holes. Free agency only deals with some of them. A team that has to cover as many as 5 holes just on offense (a real possibility) is not something you can fix by throwing money around. You need guys coming up ready to fill those holes with solid production and excess to trade from comfortably to fill those holes that your prospects didn’t. 

They’re close on that point - which is why Eppler made offers to big name guys this offseason - but they’re not quite past the multi-position question mark stage - which is why he didn’t overspend; no reason to cripple yourself by going all in on a pair of 8’s. 

[Angel Oracle]

Cole or Arenado should be the ONLY major FA target for the next several seasons.    Both have SoCal roots, and are just 29 in 2020.    Arenado checks off just about every box.   Cole would be reunited with Doug White.   Either one would be great, if the money is there for one of them.

Dumbpoto's signing of the Ghostly one and Hackilton really crimped Eppler's approach at the MLB level.    Finally, only 3 seasons remain on Pujols' contract, but with ZERO offense WAR the past 3 seasons while being paid $78 million over that time.

[GrittyVeterans]

This is the first offseason where I seriously question the decision making being made by the front office. Maybe it's Arte being cheap, or maybe this is Eppler's vision. But either way, I am not sold right now.

There is a lot of counting chickens before they hatch going on. We have a few top flight players and should be spending the necessary money in order to try to win 2019 and 2020. And right now we really aren't a position to win more than 85 games.