The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Angelsjunky]

A bit more on Jones. I'm really of two minds on him. The pessimist thinks he's a dud, that he's maxed out in AA and won't be more than a bench player in the majors. The optimist says that at some point it will all click and he'll be ready and a major league star. It might be a in few months or a few years.

The truth is probably somewhere in-between, but i almost think it is more either/or with him: either he's a scrub or a star. Either it all clicks or it doesn't. I sure hope it does.

[Second Base]

29 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

A bit more on Jones. I'm really of two minds on him. The pessimist thinks he's a dud, that he's maxed out in AA and won't be more than a bench player in the majors. The optimist says that at some point it will all click and he'll be ready and a major league star. It might be a in few months or a few years.

The truth is probably somewhere in-between, but i almost think it is more either/or with him: either he's a scrub or a star. Either it all clicks or it doesn't. I sure hope it does.

I can pretty much guarantee he hasn't topped out in AA, particularly at age 21. But physically he hasn't developed like myself and most other believes he would, at least not yet anyway. So it feels like being a star is quite the reach right now. 

I think end of the day,  in his prime he'll be a major league starting 2B that pays a .330 OBP and goes 15/15. Not a star. 

[Tank]

On 5/15/2019 at 12:11 AM, Angelsjunky said:

Looks like Salt Lake has a new hitter, has quite a power bat evidently.

i hope he's there long enough to lead them to post season glory.

[Blarg]

Kyle Bradish is really doing well in San Berdoo. In 33 innings pitched he has only given up 1 home run and is sporting a 2.45 era. I really need to get out to a game and see this kid pitch. 

[wopphil]

2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Kyle Bradish is really doing well in San Berdoo. In 33 innings pitched he has only given up 1 home run and is sporting a 2.45 era. I really need to get out to a game and see this kid pitch. 

Seems like there are a lot of no-namers like this who are really pitching well.

[Stradling]

23 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Seems like there are a lot of no-namers like this who are really pitching well.

Yep, they went so pitcher heavy last year that hopefully we will see some movement from the farm in their ability to develop arms.  After the 2nd round 15 of the next 16 players drafted were pitchers.  

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Kyle Bradish is really doing well in San Berdoo. In 33 innings pitched he has only given up 1 home run and is sporting a 2.45 era. I really need to get out to a game and see this kid pitch. 

I've had the chance to see him via video, and I like what I see.  Fearless. Good breaking ball.  There wasn't a gun reading, but the velocity seemed to match what's been reported, which is 92/93. 

[Second Base]

55 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yep, they went so pitcher heavy last year that hopefully we will see some movement from the farm in their ability to develop arms.  After the 2nd round 15 of the next 16 players drafted were pitchers.  

They did go pitcher heavy, but the system as a whole still lacks upside as far as the pitchers go.  There aren't many that project into middle or front of the rotation starters outside of Soriano and Rodriguez, and those two are at the lower levels and still have very specific obstacles they need to overcome before we start counting on their arrival.  An argument could be made that Suarez projects toward the middle too, I suppose.  It'd just be nice to have 2-3 more like Soriano and Rodriguez and that they happened to be in AA next year. 

[Stradling]

7 minutes ago, Second Base said:

They did go pitcher heavy, but the system as a whole still lacks upside as far as the pitchers go.  There aren't many that project into middle or front of the rotation starters outside of Soriano and Rodriguez, and those two are at the lower levels and still have very specific obstacles they need to overcome before we start counting on their arrival.  An argument could be made that Suarez projects toward the middle too, I suppose.  It'd just be nice to have 2-3 more like Soriano and Rodriguez and that they happened to be in AA next year. 

Yea, we would all like to have an Ace or a couple of solid number 2 type guys.  That being said a steady flow of mid rotation arms that come at league minimum frees up all the free agent dollars we have been spending on this and allows us to spend on an Ace, assuming one ever becomes available again on the open market.  

[eaterfan]

14 minutes ago, Second Base said:

They did go pitcher heavy, but the system as a whole still lacks upside as far as the pitchers go.  There aren't many that project into middle or front of the rotation starters outside of Soriano and Rodriguez, and those two are at the lower levels and still have very specific obstacles they need to overcome before we start counting on their arrival.  An argument could be made that Suarez projects toward the middle too, I suppose.  It'd just be nice to have 2-3 more like Soriano and Rodriguez and that they happened to be in AA next year. 

Don't get me wrong, I certainly want more of those types of guys in the system, but the way MLB is going really devalues starting pitching. If guys are going 4-5 innings most starts then I'd probably rather have 10 guys who are #2-4 starters than 1-2 guys who may be aces and little depth beyond that. This is to say I would rather keep our starting pitching depth and position player depth in the minors than trade it for some starting pitching upside. I'd rather keep guys like Marsh and Jones than trade them for comparable starting pitching prospects with high ceilings even though we have a lack of them and a surplus of OF and MIF prospects.

I'd also probably focus more on position players in the early rounds unless a steal, like Canning, falls. 

[Inside Pitch]

55 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Don't get me wrong, I certainly want more of those types of guys in the system, but the way MLB is going really devalues starting pitching. If guys are going 4-5 innings most starts then I'd probably rather have 10 guys who are #2-4 starters than 1-2 guys who may be aces and little depth beyond that. This is to say I would rather keep our starting pitching depth and position player depth in the minors than trade it for some starting pitching upside. I'd rather keep guys like Marsh and Jones than trade them for comparable starting pitching prospects with high ceilings even though we have a lack of them and a surplus of OF and MIF prospects.

I'd also probably focus more on position players in the early rounds unless a steal, like Canning, falls. 

Baseball is doing to SPs what the NFL has done to RBs.... It's kinda nuts.... And expanding the rosters like they are going to do only helps them do it, even if they limit the number of RPs that can be on the roster.

[eaterfan]

11 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Baseball is doing to SPs what the NFL has done to RBs.... It's kinda nuts.... And expanding the rosters like they are going to do only helps them do it, even if they limit the number of RPs that can be on the roster.

And like true centers in the NBA. 

Thinking about it more, it makes it seem even more important to get good position players. Teams will realize how much less production they are getting from SPs and will hold off and draft them later. This will mean position players get drafted earlier. Plus expanding roster sizes with restrictions on the number of pitchers a team can carry will lead to increased bench spots for position players (I'm for this). That means there will be fewer fringe guys available like Goodwin and LaStella. 

[Tank]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

Kyle Bradish is really doing well in San Berdoo. In 33 innings pitched he has only given up 1 home run and is sporting a 2.45 era. I really need to get out to a game and see this kid pitch. 

if you're going during the summer at all, let me know. i'd go with you.

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, Tank said:

if you're going during the summer at all, let me know. i'd go with you.

Brokeback Bernadino?

 

[Tank]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Brokeback Bernadino?

 

i've been told i'm a gentle lover.

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

Yea, we would all like to have an Ace or a couple of solid number 2 type guys.  That being said a steady flow of mid rotation arms that come at league minimum frees up all the free agent dollars we have been spending on this and allows us to spend on an Ace, assuming one ever becomes available again on the open market.  

The thing about a steady flow of mid-rotation arms is that most of them were panned as top of the rotation arms in the minor leagues.  Basically, this is how it flows...

Minor Leaguers projected to be top of the rotation starters mostly become mid-rotation starters and elite closers/set up men. 

Minor Leaguers projected to be mid-rotation starters typically end up becoming back of the rotation starters and long range relievers. 

Minor Leaguers projected to be back of the rotation starters typically end up becoming swingmen and depth fodder. 

Take a team like the Cardinals.....their best relievers are John Gant, Carlos Martinez, Jordan Hicks and Andrew Miller.  Gant was projected to be a mid-rotation starter, Hicks and Martinez a top of the rotation starter, and Andrew Miller, a truly elite ace.  Gant ended up being a mediocre starter in the major leagues that shifted into the bullpen and has found success.  Hicks was dominant through A Ball.  the Cardinals promoted him straight out of A Ball and said he'd be pitching in relief from now on.  Martinez was every bit as promised, but lengthy injuries have led to a highly successful bullpen role.  And Miller, tried the whole starting thing and it didn't work out, with several different teams.  As soon as he switched to relief, he became an all-star. 

I know you and many others like to take jabs at my optimism, but understand that players RARELY ever hit their ceilings.  That's why I've begun included lottery, basement and likely outcome scenarios within my assessments.  The realistic outcomes of pitchers almost always follow what I wrote up toward the top.  Even someone like Griffin Canning, who could pitch at the top of the rotation.  More than likely he'll be a #3/4 starter or great reliever if he can't stay healthy.  He certainly has the potential to be more and that potential is likely greater because of his mental command of the game and history of success in college.  But the likely outcome is still what's probably going to happen.

So when we talk about starters of the Kyle Bradish nature, understand that their lottery is in the middle of a rotation, but the likely outcome is that he becomes a completely interchangeable back of the rotation starter in the major leagues.  Interchangeable with the likes of Jaime Barria, Felix Pena, Nick Tropeano, etc....

Edited May 17, 2019 by Second Base

[Chuck]

On the comeback trail...

 

[Make Angels Great Again]

Keynan, Adell, and I have no idea who the others are.

 

Knowles, JC? Then two f*cking white males.

[Second Base]

Left to right top: _________________, JC Ramirez, ____________________, Nick Tropeano

Bottom: Keynan Middleton and Jo Adell. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

 

Bummer....any one know anything about that surgery?

[rafibomb]

23 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

 

Bummer....any one know anything about that surgery?

 

Reading online it seems like it can be anywhere from 6-12 weeks. Hopefully this will be the last of his back problems once he's fully healed. He was on his way to becoming a top 50 prospect with the way he was pitching...

[Angel Oracle]

6 hours ago, Tank said:

i've been told i'm a gentle lover.

But are you also an Easy Lover?

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, rafibomb said:

 

Reading online it seems like it can be anywhere from 6-12 weeks. Hopefully this will be the last of his back problems once he's fully healed. He was on his way to becoming a top 50 prospect with the way he was pitching...

Hahahahahahaha!

35 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

But are you also an Easy Lover?

He'll get a hold on you, believe it.

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

 

Bummer....any one know anything about that surgery?

think of it like having a fracture repaired.  

most people have heard of a vertebrae or vertebral body which are the bones of the spine but there are other bones that connect each vertebral level.  Sometime stress ie certain activities can cause the bones in between to sort of weaken or form a stress fracture.  Other times (especially in younger people), when these 'in between' bones end up with a stress fracture it's because there is a congenital defect.  In other words, they were just built that way.  

so they probably put a screw in to repair the defect or fracture.  The big variable is whether the disc was ok.  If not, and they had to do a fusion, that could be a little more concerning.  If the disc is ok, then the recovery could be a lot quicker and he could heal up and be without a great deal of long term impact.  

If I had to guess though, we won't see him again this year. 

[rafibomb]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

think of it like having a fracture repaired.  

most people have heard of a vertebrae or vertebral body which are the bones of the spine but there are other bones that connect each vertebral level.  Sometime stress ie certain activities can cause the bones in between to sort of weaken or form a stress fracture.  Other times (especially in younger people), when these 'in between' bones end up with a stress fracture it's because there is a congenital defect.  In other words, they were just built that way.  

so they probably put a screw in to repair the defect or fracture.  The big variable is whether the disc was ok.  If not, and they had to do a fusion, that could be a little more concerning.  If the disc is ok, then the recovery could be a lot quicker and he could heal up and be without a great deal of long term impact.  

If I had to guess though, we won't see him again this year. 

bummer