The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Stradling]

14 hours ago, Second Base said:

Not sure if this has been shared yet, but a fairly solid top prospect list. Quite a bit I disagree with, but a decent overview. 

https://prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/los-angeles-angels-2019-top-50-prospects/

Hey Scotty, I noticed on this list it said that Aaron Hernandez who we just drafted is 26 years old, that can’t be right can it?  I doubt we drafted a 26 year old in the 3rd round of the 2018 draft.  

 

edit-never mind i just clicked on his name and he is 22 years old.  

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Hey Scotty, I noticed on this list it said that Aaron Hernandez who we just drafted is 26 years old, that can’t be right can it?  I doubt we drafted a 26 year old in the 3rd round of the 2018 draft.  

 

edit-never mind i just clicked on his name and he is 22 years old.  

Hernandez and Bradish are going to surprise some folks. I think they're both 22, but I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them in an Angels uniform by 24.

[floplag]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

there are almost 10 players that could move from tier 4 to tier 2 this year.  

Making a jump from "the potential of making the majors, or have high likelihood of making the majors but providing minimal impact" to "above average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor" is a pretty good sized leap.  Of course many will progress and improve, im just not sure i can agree with expecting that level of improvement.

Yes you can argue a couple made jumps like that last season, Regnifo obviously and Jones but making leaps like that are the exceptions not the rule.  Did we have any others that jumped their stock that much last season to outpace their expectations before the season began?

10 just feels overly optimistic for me to make that kind of leap, but im an uber realist when it comes to that kind of thing.  Im sure a few will, i just dont think it will be that many.  Again I hope you are correct.   

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

Making a jump from "the potential of making the majors, or have high likelihood of making the majors but providing minimal impact" to "above average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor" is a pretty good sized leap.  Of course many will progress and improve, im just not sure i can agree with expecting that level of improvement.

Yes you can argue a couple made jumps like that last season, Regnifo obviously and Jones but making leaps like that are the exceptions not the rule.  Did we have any others that jumped their stock that much last season to outpace their expectations before the season began?

10 just feels overly optimistic for me to make that kind of leap, but im an uber realist when it comes to that kind of thing.  Im sure a few will, i just dont think it will be that many.  Again I hope you are correct.   

maybe I worded that wrong.  I am saying that any one of 10 players could make that jump ie they have the upside to do so.  I am not saying that 10 will make the jump.  

here is the 2018 ranking:

http://prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/los-angeles-angels-2018-top-50-prospects/

Last year they had the following ranks:

Tier 1: 

Shohei Ohtani - Graduated to the big 

Tier 2:

Jones, Adell, Maitan, Marsh, Barria

Tier 3:  

CRodriguez, Thaiss, Canning, Herm, Rivas

Tier 4:  

Fletcher, Ward, Jewell, Paredes, Soriano, Suarez, Soto, Castillo, Lund, Duensing, Deveaux, Smith, Williams, JRodriguez, Sanger, Bard, Zimmerman, LPena, Justus, J Garcia, Foster, Gatto, Osmer Morales, Jerrryell Rivera, Hofacket, Wesely, Houchins, Bates, Jose Natera, Jonah Todd

Tier 5:

Pastrone, Knowles, Del Valle, Yan, Vega, Swanda, Sherman Johnson, Jimmy Barnes, Adderlin Santana.  

 

So we graduated Ohtani, Barria, Ward, Fletcher to the majors and still managed to improve Tier 2 and 3.  

We could graduate up to 9 players from our top 20 this year.  My guess is that it will be closer to 5.  

[Docwaukee]

I also wouldn't put too much stock in the description of the tiers.  It doesn't really encompass the true nature of why someone is currently ranked in the high teens or 20s.  Jose Soriano for instance could have a tremendous impact at the major league level.  

[floplag]

44 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

maybe I worded that wrong.  I am saying that any one of 10 players could make that jump ie they have the upside to do so.  I am not saying that 10 will make the jump.  

here is the 2018 ranking:

http://prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/los-angeles-angels-2018-top-50-prospects/

Last year they had the following ranks:

Tier 1: 

Shohei Ohtani - Graduated to the big 

Tier 2:

Jones, Adell, Maitan, Marsh, Barria

Tier 3:  

CRodriguez, Thaiss, Canning, Herm, Rivas

Tier 4:  

Fletcher, Ward, Jewell, Paredes, Soriano, Suarez, Soto, Castillo, Lund, Duensing, Deveaux, Smith, Williams, JRodriguez, Sanger, Bard, Zimmerman, LPena, Justus, J Garcia, Foster, Gatto, Osmer Morales, Jerrryell Rivera, Hofacket, Wesely, Houchins, Bates, Jose Natera, Jonah Todd

Tier 5:

Pastrone, Knowles, Del Valle, Yan, Vega, Swanda, Sherman Johnson, Jimmy Barnes, Adderlin Santana.  

 

So we graduated Ohtani, Barria, Ward, Fletcher to the majors and still managed to improve Tier 2 and 3.  

We could graduate up to 9 players from our top 20 this year.  My guess is that it will be closer to 5.  

Now that of course makes perfect sense.   Apologies for the misread.  
Of the ones that have yet to make an appearance in the bigs, i think 5 or 6 is fair,  Thaiss, Canning, Suarez, Rengifo... pretty much assumed we will see them in 19.  The other assumptions would be they would need to see if Walsh or Rojas can be more than prospects at age 25.  Anything more would all depend on injuries and such.

[HaloNArizona]

I know they are only ETA's...but looking at those time frames, you can see what Eppler is not going after long term FA's (and yes I know a lot of these guys will not pan out, will flame out and some will get traded)....

2018: Jewell, Buttrey, Jerez, Herm

2019: Canning, Rengifo, Suarez, Thaiss, Walsh, Rojas, Pena

2020: Adell, Kruger, Jones, Sandoval, Lund, Hanewich, Procopio, Gatto, MacKinnon, Beasley

A lot of possibilities, with not a lot of spots available.  Going to be interesting.

 

[Angelsjunky]

^Don't forget Ohtani, Barria, Fletcher, and Ward for 2018.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Now that of course makes perfect sense.   Apologies for the misread.  
Of the ones that have yet to make an appearance in the bigs, i think 5 or 6 is fair,  Thaiss, Canning, Suarez, Rengifo... pretty much assumed we will see them in 19.  The other assumptions would be they would need to see if Walsh or Rojas can be more than prospects at age 25.  Anything more would all depend on injuries and such.

I think we'll see 4 or 5 lost their rookie status and another 4 or 5 make their debut without losing their rookie status.  

Guys like Walsh and Rojas aren't on anyone's radar so whatever they give you at the major league level is absolute gravy.  Similar to Fletcher actually.  Who wasn't really a prospect above being a future MIF util guy.  But that's the importance of building depth and how even though a farm may not have a ton of tier 1 and 2 guys, the system can provide tremendous value.  

Even if the farm holds steady as a top 10 system after this year and we graduate another 5 guys, That'll be 10 players on the 25 man roster at league min who are contributing well above the replacement level scrubs or higher paid players we had before.  

In other words, in 2020, take money (about 40m) from Harvey, Cahill, Allen, and Calhoun in 2019 and replace that with similar or better production from Canning, Suarez, Buttrey and Adell.  Now find a taker for the last year of Cozart's contract and welcome back Ohtani, Middleton, and JC Ramirez.  Now sign Garrit Cole.  Now fill 2b with league min Rengifo, Jones or Fletcher.  If Ward doesn't work out you can add a 3bman.  Sign or trade for a C.  

And don't forget, you're going to restock with another draft and you're going to get a handful of guys that move up in value and add some more you talent in the intl market.  

and if things don't work out in 2019 you can add more Patrick Sandovals, Luis Maderos and Luis Rengifos.  

[totdprods]

43 minutes ago, HaloNArizona said:

I know they are only ETA's...but looking at those time frames, you can see what Eppler is not going after long term FA's (and yes I know a lot of these guys will not pan out, will flame out and some will get traded)....

2018: Jewell, Buttrey, Jerez, Herm

2019: Canning, Rengifo, Suarez, Thaiss, Walsh, Rojas, Pena

2020: Adell, Kruger, Jones, Sandoval, Lund, Hanewich, Procopio, Gatto, MacKinnon, Beasley

A lot of possibilities, with not a lot of spots available.  Going to be interesting.

 

 

37 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

^Don't forget Ohtani, Barria, Fletcher, and Ward for 2018.

All the more reason to for 2019 to be a sort of transition year. Leave some room for youth to get playing time and assert themselves, allowing Eppler to concentrate on what needs can’t be filled internally for the next few seasons. 

If Fletcher is a .700 OPS 2B, if Ward can drop a .260/.320/.400 line, if Suarez, Canning, and Barría all look good making starts it really let’s Billy focus exclusively on dire needs like catcher, frontline SP, impact bullpen next season or two instead of seemingly every need every offseason, catchers, first base, second base, third base, outfield, outfield depth, infield depth, back of rotation, top of rotation, all of bullpen...

Edited January 21, 2019 by totdprods

[floplag]

27 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think we'll see 4 or 5 lost their rookie status and another 4 or 5 make their debut without losing their rookie status.  

Guys like Walsh and Rojas aren't on anyone's radar so whatever they give you at the major league level is absolute gravy.  Similar to Fletcher actually.  Who wasn't really a prospect above being a future MIF util guy.  But that's the importance of building depth and how even though a farm may not have a ton of tier 1 and 2 guys, the system can provide tremendous value.  

Even if the farm holds steady as a top 10 system after this year and we graduate another 5 guys, That'll be 10 players on the 25 man roster at league min who are contributing well above the replacement level scrubs or higher paid players we had before.  

In other words, in 2020, take money (about 40m) from Harvey, Cahill, Allen, and Calhoun in 2019 and replace that with similar or better production from Canning, Suarez, Buttrey and Adell.  Now find a taker for the last year of Cozart's contract and welcome back Ohtani, Middleton, and JC Ramirez.  Now sign Garrit Cole.  Now fill 2b with league min Rengifo, Jones or Fletcher.  If Ward doesn't work out you can add a 3bman.  Sign or trade for a C.  

And don't forget, you're going to restock with another draft and you're going to get a handful of guys that move up in value and add some more you talent in the intl market.  

and if things don't work out in 2019 you can add more Patrick Sandovals, Luis Maderos and Luis Rengifos.  

I dont really want to get into next year till we see where this year goes, but i will say this... a lot of teams with more money than we have are going to go after Cole.  That doesn't bode well for us.  I expect the Dodgers for example to likely go ham there and they will beat any offer we can make so unless hes specifically wants to be an Angle im not optimistic there.   Just cause he and Arrenado are local boys doesn't mean all that much based on the endless Trout talks so i have no expectations on that.

Right now the reality for next off season is that we are likely to have most of the same holes we had this season due to the 1 year deals.  Thats not really significant improvement unless those holes are filled by the kids and they perform above expectation.   Plus, there may not be as many options available at our spots of need.  Im not a fan at all of these 1 yr mercenary deals but it is what it is.

We have a plan for the farm but the big club is piece mail right now, and thats not what i was hoping for.    Well see how things turn out perhaps my pessimistic outlook can be turned. 

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, floplag said:

I dont really want to get into next year till we see where this year goes, but i will say this... a lot of teams with more money than we have are going to go after Cole.  That doesn't bode well for us.  I expect the Dodgers for example to likely go ham there and they will beat any offer we can make so unless hes specifically wants to be an Angle im not optimistic there.   Just cause he and Arrenado are local boys doesn't mean all that much based on the endless Trout talks so i have no expectations on that.

Right now the reality for next off season is that we are likely to have most of the same holes we had this season due to the 1 year deals.  Thats not really significant improvement unless those holes are filled by the kids and they perform above expectation.   Plus, there may not be as many options available at our spots of need.  Im not a fan at all of these 1 yr mercenary deals but it is what it is.

We have a plan for the farm but the big club is piece mail right now, and thats not what i was hoping for.    Well see how things turn out perhaps my pessimistic outlook can be turned. 

they likely don't need to perform above expectation.  They need to be as good as the guys they are replacing so we can use that money for other stuff.  It's actually the entire premise of what Eppler is trying to do.  

[floplag]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

they likely don't need to perform above expectation.  They need to be as good as the guys they are replacing so we can use that money for other stuff.  It's actually the entire premise of what Eppler is trying to do.  

I get that, but thats also relative depending exactly how well Harvey and Cahill do.   We are expecting/hoping Harvey and Cahill to return to from to sniff a playoff run, we would have to put that same expectation on the kids to perform at the level to continue it. 

[Inside Pitch]

29 minutes ago, floplag said:

I get that, but thats also relative depending exactly how well Harvey and Cahill do.   We are expecting/hoping Harvey and Cahill to return to from to sniff a playoff run, we would have to put that same expectation on the kids to perform at the level to continue it. 

Return to form???  

The projections that have the Angels at 85 wins don't have Harvey turning the clock back to his black knight days, they have him coming in around 4.75 era, Cahill is being projected to be worse than last year and yet both are improvements over who they are replacing.  Two rookies graduating into 4.50 guys would also be an improvement.

That's the reality of what our rotation was last year. 

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[floplag]

20 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Return to form???  

The projections that have the Angels at 85 wins don't have Harvey turning the clock back to his black knight days, they have him coming in around 4.75 era, Cahill is being projected to be worse than last year and yet both are improvements over who they are replacing.  Two rookies graduating into 4.50 guys would also be an improvement.

That's the reality of what our rotation was last year. 

 

Thats not enough to actually make a run at anything so they will have to do better for that to happen is my point meaing the kids would need to project better as well.   85 wins doesnt make the WC, you know that as well as i do.
Also thats not what our rotation was last year, not when we were down to 12-13 on the depth chart. 

[Docwaukee]

30 minutes ago, floplag said:

Thats not enough to actually make a run at anything so they will have to do better for that to happen is my point meaing the kids would need to project better as well.   85 wins doesnt make the WC, you know that as well as i do.
Also thats not what our rotation was last year, not when we were down to 12-13 on the depth chart. 

that's the whole point.  they'll have an additional 30-40 mil because cheap controlled talent will be providing the meh production that used to cost that.  

[Inside Pitch]

40 minutes ago, floplag said:

Thats not enough to actually make a run at anything so they will have to do better for that to happen is my point meaing the kids would need to project better as well.   85 wins doesnt make the WC, you know that as well as i do.
Also thats not what our rotation was last year, not when we were down to 12-13 on the depth chart. 

I have no clue what will happen - none.

But I do know that every year teams under and over perform their projections because they aren't anything  better than intelligent guesses.  I further know that the formulas used to come up with these projections are enacted universally and that the greatest variances are tied to players at the opposite ends of the age spectrum.   Comments like the kids need to project better are silly, not because a team would be happy with a 4.50 era but because even the best projections tend to miss hard on young players (and old ones).  Reason being is that projections view all players as being one of however many thousands of players to ever play the game at the same age with a similar performance history.  This is not a slam directed at you it's just what it is.   The sweet spot for projection systems is for guys between age 25 through 31 with at least a three year MLB track record through their age 25 season.

Anyway.... That 85 win projection might be 80 wins, might be 90 wins.  90 wins is WC territory and every team projected to win between 82 and 86 games is in the conversation.  Neither Oakland or Tampa Bay were projected to win as many as 85 games last year...

Lastly, our rotation last year was the guys who actually started, those are the guys that accounted for that combined era above 6.50... Those are the numbers they are needing improvement on,  not whatever make believe numbers you think they might have put up had everyone been healthy...

Edited January 22, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

that's the whole point.  they'll have an additional 30-40 mil because cheap controlled talent will be providing the meh production that used to cost that.  

I wanted to make this same point but figured the response would be... Well its moot because it isn't good enough anyway and they won't spend money anyway....

[Stradling]

Guys, he simply doesn’t get it.  He either doesn’t get it, or is trolling.  There is no in between.  He calls himself a realist, which would be accurate if he knew what he was talking about with the way prospects are graded.  Also at some point, which that point is now, our prospects because they are being drafted ahead of the Astros prospects will have a higher ceiling more than likely, unless we whiffed which we did at least once.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Guys, he simply doesn’t get it.  He either doesn’t get it, or is trolling.  There is no in between.  He calls himself a realist, which would be accurate if he knew what he was talking about with the way prospects are graded.  Also at some point, which that point is now, our prospects because they are being drafted ahead of the Astros prospects will have a higher ceiling more than likely, unless we whiffed which we did at least once.  

I get what you're saying, but fwiw, I'm not always responding to the individual so much as to anyone reading who may buy into a narrative. "85 wins" seems to have joined "building top 5 farm system is the plan" as a talking point.  If aw.com history is any indication if something is said enough it eventually becomes aw.com fact.

[Angel Oracle]

For all we know, 85 wins may well be enough for the second WC spot.  

It was for the Twins in 2017, and it put the Halos only 1 game in back of it in 2015.   A'th will regress, Dipotos will regress, and TB isn't a sure bet to not regress either.

[Chuck]

Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects just hit the internet. Jo Adell moves up to #6, Canning #63. Marsh, Jones and Suarez bumped off -- but mostly due to a strong class of prospects out there.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2019-top-100-prospects/

[UndertheHalo]

Angels have 2 guys in the BA top 100.  Adell at 6 and Canning at 63 (I believe).  A but disappointing considering we had Marsh, Suarez, and Jones crack it at various times last year.  I figure we have some bubble guys that will need to have good years to get back in.

Edited January 23, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[Second Base]

13 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects just hit the internet. Jo Adell moves up to #6, Canning #63. Marsh, Jones and Suarez bumped off -- but mostly due to a strong class of prospects out there.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2019-top-100-prospects/

Not too worried.  I think this time next year we'll have Adell, Jones, Marsh and maybe even Knowles, Rodriguez, Soriano, Jackson or Adams.  Canning will have graduated by then. And even then, regardless of how they're ranked, the system should only continue to get stronger assuming we don't make any trades. 

[Cdaniel]

Baseball Prospectus:

2. Adell

56. Canning

68. Jones 

94. Marsh

99. Adams

Baseball Prospectus