The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Blarg]

That will all depend on if Adell is really ready for MLB pitching. That and if they are buying another year of team control. 

[Docwaukee]

48 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

RF isn't a guarantee for Goodwin. 

If he has the type of ST that he had for the Royals prior to them dumping him this past spring, meanwhile one or all of Hermosillo, Adell and Marsh just kill it across the board, you can kiss Goodwin's arse goodbye, where best case scenario for him is a 4th outfield spot on the roster. 

after the solid year that Goodwin had for the Angels, it's not gonna matter if he has a rough spring.  Adell is gonna start in AAA because of how he struggled there last year.  At least that will be the excuse.  

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, CanadianHalo said:

He has proven at every level so far that he just needs time to adjust and then he’s good.

If he has a good spring training I just don’t see the point in delaying the inevitable. 
 

Everything is there including the mental part.

I think they would, but since Adell's numbers in AAA last year weren't particularly amazing, and Goodwin want bad at all, they have a viable excuse to delay his service clock for one more year. This likely means his promotion is coming in May rather than April.

[Angelsjunky]

What Doc and Scotty said. Adell could probably use more time in AAA, which is a higher level overall than the AFL. 

[Chuck]

Aaron Hernandez and J. Jones with a good game today! 

[Chuck]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What Doc and Scotty said. Adell could probably use more time in AAA, which is a higher level overall than the AFL. 

Joe Maddon is the manager, so anything is possible. If Adell absolute crushes the ball, (he hit well last spring) and Goodwin looks like dogshit, or even mediocre I could see Adell getting the call. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

Adell starts the season in AAA, depending on how he does in AAA (he's on fire) and how Goodwin is doing will determine his time line.

[Chuck]

33 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Adell starts the season in AAA, depending on how he does in AAA (he's on fire) and how Goodwin is doing will determine his time line.

Most likely, but you just never know. Baseball is weird sometimes. 

One thing I know is, the AAA Salt Lake Bees team is going to be stacked. 

Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell, Jahmai Jones and it's possible a bunch of these guys, if not all. Walsh, Rengifo, Thaiss, Ward..

[Chuck]

Back to Jones, what an impressive AFL for him. 

Jahmai Jones: 53 AB's, .302/.377/.509, 2 HR's, 7 SB's.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

RF isn't a guarantee for Goodwin. 

If he has the type of ST that he had for the Royals prior to them dumping him this past spring, meanwhile one or all of Hermosillo, Adell and Marsh just kill it across the board, you can kiss Goodwin's arse goodbye, where best case scenario for him is a 4th outfield spot on the roster. 

Guarantee you that if the Angels have the off-season everyone here wants, then Jo Adell starts the year in AAA.  That extra year of control will be even more valuable to them if they upped the payroll.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

Joe Maddon is the manager, so anything is possible. If Adell absolute crushes the ball, (he hit well last spring) and Goodwin looks like dogshit, or even mediocre I could see Adell getting the call. 

Joe Maddon was the manager in Chicago when Kris Bryant set ST on fire and was sent down for XX number of days to work on his defense.   He fielded like 7 balls in that span and yet amazingly he was ready the day after that extra year was guaranteed.

[Chuck]

25 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Guarantee you that if the Angels have the off-season everyone here wants, then Jo Adell starts the year in AAA.  That extra year of control will be even more valuable to them if they upped the payroll.

Yeah... I'm just saying if Goodwin sucks like he did for the Royals. Heck, maybe Hermosillo beats him out if that happens so we get that extra year of control of Adell. 

[Angelsjunky]

53 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Back to Jones, what an impressive AFL for him. 

Jahmai Jones: 53 AB's, .302/.377/.509, 2 HR's, 7 SB's.

Deja vu.

[Chuck]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

Deja vu.

Yeah but unlike last season, Jones actually had some good momentum in AA heading into the AFL.

[Angelsjunky]

12 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yeah but unlike last season, Jones actually had some good momentum in AA heading into the AFL.

I'm not a failo and remain hopeful about Jones, but not yet optimistic. I'll believe it when I see it. 

I'm not sure how Jones ended 2018, but his AA stat line (.245/.335/.375 in 48 games) was better than his AA stat line in 2019 (.234/.308/.324 in 130 games), so I'm not sure I buy the momentum argument. I still consider him a decent prospect, but where I ranked Jones #4 in my 2018 year-end rankings (AW ranked him #5), I have him #8 this year, in a less crowded top 10. Meaning his stock has dropped, although not plummeted. IMO.

Or to put it another way:

After 2018: #4, Grade B ; most likely outcome: future 3-4 WAR good regular.

After 2019: #8, Grade B- ; most likely outcome: solid 2-3 WAR regular, or good bench player.

Still a decent outlook, just not quite as good.

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Joe Maddon was the manager in Chicago when Kris Bryant set ST on fire and was sent down for XX number of days to work on his defense.   He fielded like 7 balls in that span and yet amazingly he was ready the day after that extra year was guaranteed.

Bryant also destroyed AAA the year before which made it even more obvious they were manipulating service time whereas with Adell they can use the excuse that he struggled at AAA.  I am totally fine with that and am in no rush to promote him out of spring.  I think I'd rather err on the side of caution and let him get in a groove at SLC after making some necessary adjustments that he mentioned making in the AFL.  Let's make sure those take in the minors first.  

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yeah... I'm just saying if Goodwin sucks like he did for the Royals. Heck, maybe Hermosillo beats him out if that happens so we get that extra year of control of Adell. 

wouldn't that be the complete opposite of what we did last year?  Took a guy that sucked in spring and then gave him a spot because we knew he had talent?  I've seen Goodwin perform well enough at the major league level and he's young enough to do it again regardless of whether Herm has a great spring.  Granted, if that happens them maybe Herm actually earns some platoon at bats but I don't think Goodwin gets displaced unless that poor spring turns into a poor early showing when the season starts.  

We're getting that extra year of Adell regardless.  Even if Adell kills it in spring and Goodwin stink.  

[Chuck]

AFL studs..

[Docwaukee]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm not a failo and remain hopeful about Jones, but not yet optimistic. I'll believe it when I see it. 

I'm not sure how Jones ended 2018, but his AA stat line (.245/.335/.375 in 48 games) was better than his AA stat line in 2019 (.234/.308/.324 in 130 games), so I'm not sure I buy the momentum argument. I still consider him a decent prospect, but where I ranked Jones #4 in my 2018 year-end rankings (AW ranked him #5), I have him #8 this year, in a less crowded top 10. Meaning his stock has dropped, although not plummeted. IMO.

Or to put it another way:

After 2018: #4, Grade B ; most likely outcome: future 3-4 WAR good regular.

After 2019: #8, Grade B- ; most likely outcome: solid 2-3 WAR regular, or good bench player.

Still a decent outlook, just not quite as good.

it's interesting because even though I agree his overall projection deserves to be dropped a bit, he's probably in a much better spot right now to succeed going forward than he was a couple years ago.  Over that time, he's gone through at least a couple swing changes and a change of defensive position from CF to 2b.  

Sometimes, no matter how much we make a concerted effort to remind ourselves that none of the other Angels' prospects are Adell, it's hard to detach what he has done and will eventually do from everyone else.  Where normal prospect transitional periods seem like an indication that said prospect is failing when it just takes them longer to work through adjustments.  and on the flip side we probably overvalue them on the front end before they go through that transition with the assumption they'll move those transitions much more quickly.   

[CanadianHalo]

11 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Joe Maddon was the manager in Chicago when Kris Bryant set ST on fire and was sent down for XX number of days to work on his defense.   He fielded like 7 balls in that span and yet amazingly he was ready the day after that extra year was guaranteed.

Yeah that crossed my mind as well but I also remember them catching some flack for that (everyone understands the business side of it but yeah). Given all the bad press the Angels have received recently due to the Skaggs incident I’m not sure they’d want to start 2020 off with more negative press. 
 

Like I said, I get it from the business side but if Adell has a good spring training and they’re serious about winning, I’m not sure how you don’t ruffle feathers by sending him down.

[Lou]

8 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

AFL studs..

when did Marsh turn 35?

[Blarg]

That's Jesus of Mesa Marsh. 

[Second Base]

From what I've seen of Jones, he's a different player this year than he was last year in the AFL. The results on the offensive side are still largely the same, but circumstantially, it couldn't be any more different, and I think if you ignore certain parts of his journey as a player, you will fail to see the entire picture.

Last year, Jones came into the AFL and debuted a largely remade swing since the season ended, meant for him to see the ball longer and take some more aggressive swings on pitches in the zone. On top of that, the big thing they wanted to see was how he may develop defensively at 2B, and surprisingly, he only looked like a below average 2B instead of an outfielder trying to play 2B, which suggests growth occurred, but he still had some much needed development. 

Last year, his final two months in AA he managed to hit .227 and .250. This year in his final two months he hit .269 and .313. Last year's swing remake that he underwent yielded a .193 batting average in the first half of the season. This year, he studied video and worked with someone, I don't know who at the spring training complex and changed his swing mid season to something that more resembles his natural swing. It doesn't look mechanical or forced,

As soon as that happened he hit the ball.

The main difference here is that now Jones has an approach that he knows will work in the upper minors, whereas last year, he was searching for one that would work. Furthermore, this year, Jones looks like an actual 2B in the field.

Numbers won't tell you the story here.

You're comparing a 20 year old, maybe 2B, maybe OF with no success in the upper minors undergoing a major rehaul at the plate with a 21 year old for sure 2B with some success in the upper minors under his belt and a swing that he knows will work.

The most interesting thing regarding Jones in my mind is if they will trade him or not. He's going to be in AAA next year, and I think chances are, he's going to hit .280 with some power, speed and defense at that level. His defense won't ever be as good as Rengifo, but if the team feels that Jones will produce more at the plate than Luis, then we might see Rengifo dealt. Either way, entering 2021, I don't believe both will be in the organization.

[tdawg87]

Jones is gonna be a late bloomer IMO. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

I'm kind of feeling that two, he's been up and down, but still young. Seems liek he'll struggle one half and than turn it around in the second half.