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The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread


Chuck

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Maitan's a good example of why not to take scouting reports on 15-year olds too seriously, especially when not a lot of folks have had a good look at him. I don't think he'll ever be considered an elite prospect, but he's not Baldoquin. Yet. Its sort of like this:

(Miguel Sano + Nonie Williams) /2 = Kevin Maitan.

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I think this year he'll show some positive development, then 2021 will be a make or break year. His career so far has been one of continual transition.

Moving off the island as a poor but hyped 16 year old kid to the US where he's playing against his several years older than he is. While that's happening, he's got money for the first time and no accountability, so his body type changes. Then his original club loses rights to him because of some shady dealings and he's a free agent. Once he signs, he's in a new place yet again and is now on a strict nutrition and workout regimen that again transforms his body, but again, this more think, muscular build isn't the long, lean one he had when he was successful a couple years back. Then he undergoes two different swing changes mid season in an attempt to fix some glaring holes, and switches defensive positions. All the while, he keeps getting promoted to face more and more advanced competition.

Given his situation so far, the kid never had a chance. 

But I'm not giving up on him yet.

He'll be 20 years old next year, and hopefully he can stay in one spot, with one swing and stay healthy. If that happens, I think we'll see him post some better numbers. 2021 is still his breakout year in my opinion. Something will just click for him and we'll see him develop into a good defensive 3B with power and discipline from both sides of the plate.

 

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Do the Angels start him again in low A ball? He hardly crushed it there (.214/.278/.323).

Anyhow, another way to look at Maitan is that if you erased the hype, he's just another random prospect from Latin America, and no one would take notice of him because he's done absolutely nothing to make anyone pay attention. He'd be like Kevin Arias or Francisco Del Valle. Who? Exactly. On the AW prospect list, he'd be an "honorable mention" the last couple years, but probably not top 30 on anyone's list.

That doesn't mean he can't have a breakthrough and become a legit prospect, but that any of the remaining hype is based on previous hype, rather than anything he's doing on the field or that is showing up on the stat page. Maybe I'm too bearish on him, but at the very least I think we're all paying too much attention based on now defunct hype.

I'm not entirely sure, but he's probably going to be somewhere in my #20-30 range. I'm not entirely ready to wipe him from prospect legitimacy, but he is losing the benefit of the doubt, in my mind.

Edited by Angelsjunky
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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Do the Angels start him again in low A ball? He hardly crushed it there (.214/.278/.323).

Anyhow, another way to look at Maitan is that if you erased the hype, he's just another random prospect from Latin America, and no one would take notice of him because he's done absolutely nothing to make anyone pay attention. He'd be like Kevin Arias or Francisco Del Valle. Who? Exactly. On the AW prospect list, he'd be an "honorable mention" the last couple years, but probably not top 30 on anyone's list.

That doesn't mean he can't have a breakthrough and become a legit prospect, but that any of the remaining hype is based on previous hype, rather than anything he's doing on the field or that is showing up on the stat page. Maybe I'm too bearish on him, but at the very least I think we're all paying too much attention based on now defunct hype.

I'm not entirely sure, but he's probably going to be somewhere in my #20-30 range. I'm not entirely ready to wipe him from prospect legitimacy, but he is losing the benefit of the doubt, in my mind.

I don't think that's true. Yes, the hype comes from scouting more than performance so far, but I think we'd still have heard of him. Honestly, what the difference between him and Deveaux performance wise? He's a guy everyone has heard of. Maitan is 100 days older but performed slightly better in a higher league. 

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32 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I don't think that's true. Yes, the hype comes from scouting more than performance so far, but I think we'd still have heard of him. Honestly, what the difference between him and Deveaux performance wise? He's a guy everyone has heard of. Maitan is 100 days older but performed slightly better in a higher league. 

I agree that even if he didn't come with the 'best in class' moniker, he'd still be mildly on the radar.  People would still see the potential even if the results hadn't been there.  Frankly, I think he'd actually have better results because if there were no hype, he'd never have been promoted to A ball by now.  He'd have been in the AZL last year and Orem this year which would have been more age and skill appropriate.  Another way to look at it though is that even though he hasn't performed well, the Angels still clearly think he belongs at his current level so they see something in him to justify that.  

Knowing how aggressive the halos have been with promotions, it wouldn't surprise me if they move him up to the Cal league.  But if he continues to struggle, it could be next year where they start him there again because of that huge jump in talent that usually happens from A+ to AA.  

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OK, I can agree with "mildly on the radar." I was probably over-adjusting to account for the hype and "fallen prospect" status.

If we wipe the slate clean and look only at performance, age, and recent scouting reports, he's what Sickels called a C+ prospect, which is pretty much a catchall for prospects "mildly on the radar." 

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@Angelsjunky I think you're being a bit drastic with Arias and De Valle comps. Neither of those players has a single tool that jumps off the page. Maitan has perhaps the best power in the system, particularly to opposite field. That's the sort of skill that can't be taught.

That reason alone, combined with his age and improved defense at 3B would be enough to turn some heads and land him on Top 30 lists.

Yeah, he's sucked. No way around that. But even without the hype and signing bonuses, he'd still profile toward the back half of the top 30. Look at MLB.com's top prospect list. You can't tell me there's greater justification for Deveaux, Rivas, Stallings and Aquino than there is for Maitan. 

He's a lottery ticket, and with the current depth of the Angels system, that'll get you into the top 30. I can't predict with any certainty that he will work out any more than I can predict he will be a bust.

What I do know is that Eppler and Swanson are pretty smart, and they both felt justified in spending a couple million on him and being aggressive in their pursuit of him. I also know he's young and when he makes contact, he can hit the ball a ton. I also know he's an extremely strong kid. 

And finally, I know he's sucked at every single level pretty much. So we'll see.

 

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Yeah, @Second Base, I realize I was exagerrating a bit and walked it back somewhat both in my first post and in my reply to Doc, but it was to make a point. We're still at least somewhat influenced by the draft reports from when he was 16 and was viewed as a potential super-prospect. Now he's almost 20, and an entirely different prospect. He can still turn into a pretty good prospect, but he could also be another Nonie Williams (who also has some nice tools and is essentially dead in the low-A water)--and will almost certainly never fulfill his early promise.

I like Maitan quite a bit better than Nonie at this point, but another year of stagnation and he'll be getting there. As of right now, I've got Deveaux ahead of Maitan on my top 30, but not by much. Deveaux took a big step forward last year, while Maitan didn't. But both are highly volatile at this point.

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p.s. The reason I mentioned Arias and Del Valle is that I pretty much randomly picked a couple guys of a similar age and performance. Obviously there was no tools analysis involved. But that was for a purpose: if we had never heard of Maitan, never knew about the Braves scouting and signing, and Maitan had just showed up in the Angels minor leagues in 2018 and performed as he did for the last couple years, we would barely notice him. He'd be an Adrian Rondon type..."Hmm, who is that guy? Maybe someone to attach a sticky note to." But that's about it.

I'd like to see a fresh pro scouting report on him--a non-biased person looking at him with fresh eyes. 

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5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, @Second Base, I realize I was exagerrating a bit and walked it back somewhat both in my first post and in my reply to Doc, but it was to make a point. We're still at least somewhat influenced by the draft reports from when he was 16 and was viewed as a potential super-prospect. Now he's almost 20, and an entirely different prospect. He can still turn into a pretty good prospect, but he could also be another Nonie Williams (who also has some nice tools and is essentially dead in the low-A water)--and will almost certainly never fulfill his early promise.

I like Maitan quite a bit better than Nonie at this point, but another year of stagnation and he'll be getting there. As of right now, I've got Deveaux ahead of Maitan on my top 30, but not by much. Deveaux took a big step forward last year, while Maitan didn't. But both are highly volatile at this point.

I don't think that happening is exclusive to Maitan by any means.  Certain guys start out with loud tools and it's why they're picked in the first couple rounds or paid 7 figures as AFAs.  It's also why these players end up with a better chance to realize some of those tools even if they struggle for awhile in the minors and why they don't completely drop off prospect radar.  It's the complete opposite of why Calhoun or Fletcher don't end up higher on people's lists.  

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4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I don't think that happening is exclusive to Maitan by any means.  Certain guys start out with loud tools and it's why they're picked in the first couple rounds or paid 7 figures as AFAs.  It's also why these players end up with a better chance to realize some of those tools even if they struggle for awhile in the minors and why they don't completely drop off prospect radar.  It's the complete opposite of why Calhoun or Fletcher don't end up higher on people's lists.  

Agreed. This is the case in all sports, all fields, really. It is the psychological component, or make-up. If you know tennis at all, it is the difference between a Roger Federer and a David Nalbandian. I mention tennis because it is similar to baseball in that athleticism will only take you so far--less so than in most other sports. You can have all the talent in the world, but if you don't work hard and develop your talent into baseball skills, you'll cap out somewhere in the minors.

With Maitan there does seem to be another factor that sometimes doesn't show up with more heavily scouted domestic players. A lot of his early hype seemed to have to do with who he was physically, and projecting from his 16-year old body. He seemed to develop differently, in a purely physical sense, than was expected.

I also question whether the tools assessment was accurate - or rather, obviously it wasn't.

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11 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Agreed. This is the case in all sports, all fields, really. It is the psychological component, or make-up. If you know tennis at all, it is the difference between a Roger Federer and a David Nalbandian. I mention tennis because it is similar to baseball in that athleticism will only take you so far--less so than in most other sports. You can have all the talent in the world, but if you don't work hard and develop your talent into baseball skills, you'll cap out somewhere in the minors.

With Maitan there does seem to be another factor that sometimes doesn't show up with more heavily scouted domestic players. A lot of his early hype seemed to have to do with who he was physically, and projecting from his 16-year old body. He seemed to develop differently, in a purely physical sense, than was expected.

I also question whether the tools assessment was accurate - or rather, obviously it wasn't.

I think it probably was.  I don't think anyone expected him to put on 50 pounds of mush and have to work his way out of it.  I also think the 'work' part has played a factor in maybe it wasn't something he was inclined to initially as anyone had hoped.  I think the tools are still pretty much there though.  Like the power that scotty mentioned.  It's legit for sure.  This will be an interesting year for him if he can find a way to make better contact.  Even if he wasn't much of a name before, he's worthy of a spot in our top 30.  But just barely.  

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23 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think it probably was.  I don't think anyone expected him to put on 50 pounds of mush and have to work his way out of it.  I also think the 'work' part has played a factor in maybe it wasn't something he was inclined to initially as anyone had hoped.  I think the tools are still pretty much there though.  Like the power that scotty mentioned.  It's legit for sure.  This will be an interesting year for him if he can find a way to make better contact.  Even if he wasn't much of a name before, he's worthy of a spot in our top 30.  But just barely.  

Welll I agree with that, and as I said I have him somewhere in the 20s. But his initial tools assessment was pretty gaudy: something like Miggy Cabrera, but as a good shortstop. Obviously the middle infield defense goes with weight gain, but the power and hit tool shouldn't. 

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Just my guess @Dochalo @Angelsjunky I think Maitan will move to Inland Empire in 2020, because he finished year the stronger and with a better swing. And I think he'll be slightly better than last year. More power, and better pitch recognition and better defense, but he's still going to have prolonged slumps and it's going to face harder pitching which means he'll be made to look pretty foolish more frequently. 

Come 2021, I think he'll repeat Inland Empire and that's when we'll see him erupt, in his age 21 season, the power, the batting average, the on base percentage, it'll all going to come together and for the first couple of months, he'll destroy the Cal League and get promoted to AA where he'll struggle a little more but then at the end of season figure it out. Come 2022, he'll start in AA and move to AAA pretty quickly, and he'll do what power hitters do in Salt Lake, which is hit lots of homeruns. Once 2023 rolls around, he will start in AAA again, but earn his promotion, and like Ward, Thaiss and Rengifo before him, he will show flashes, but it won't fully come together. It's a big jump, after all. In 2024, he'll grab the 3B spot in Spring Training and not look back, as a 24 year old.

When it's all said and done, my shot in the dark guess is that he's going to develop into an everyday starting 3B/1B that hits .250 with 30 HR's.

But that's a long way away. But that outcome is ultimately why I think I have him ranked in the teens, even after a brutal first season of full season ball.

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42 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Just my guess @Dochalo @Angelsjunky I think Maitan will move to Inland Empire in 2020, because he finished year the stronger and with a better swing. And I think he'll be slightly better than last year. More power, and better pitch recognition and better defense, but he's still going to have prolonged slumps and it's going to face harder pitching which means he'll be made to look pretty foolish more frequently. 

Come 2021, I think he'll repeat Inland Empire and that's when we'll see him erupt, in his age 21 season, the power, the batting average, the on base percentage, it'll all going to come together and for the first couple of months, he'll destroy the Cal League and get promoted to AA where he'll struggle a little more but then at the end of season figure it out. Come 2022, he'll start in AA and move to AAA pretty quickly, and he'll do what power hitters do in Salt Lake, which is hit lots of homeruns. Once 2023 rolls around, he will start in AAA again, but earn his promotion, and like Ward, Thaiss and Rengifo before him, he will show flashes, but it won't fully come together. It's a big jump, after all. In 2024, he'll grab the 3B spot in Spring Training and not look back, as a 24 year old.

When it's all said and done, my shot in the dark guess is that he's going to develop into an everyday starting 3B/1B that hits .250 with 30 HR's.

But that's a long way away. But that outcome is ultimately why I think I have him ranked in the teens, even after a brutal first season of full season ball.

I wish I shared your confidence.  I think he's gonna continue to struggle making contact while showing excellent power.  I don't think he's got the discipline to make up the difference of his avg being in like the .230 range.  It's gonna have to suddenly 'click' for him if anything is to change but the hit tool just doesn't seem to be there enough to where I'm even remotely bullish.  I like his swing change a lot and hope it works, but I just don't see him decreasing those k's enough or offsetting with enough walks to ever turn him into a viable major league player.  

What might happen is he toils around in AA/AAA till he's like 26/27 and finally turns a corner becoming a solid player at 1b.  Mabye in a platoon role depending on which side of the plate he ends up developing best.  

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14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Nah, they'll give the job to Goodwin for the first month or two, and then see what Adell and Marsh do in AAA.

RF isn't a guarantee for Goodwin. 

If he has the type of ST that he had for the Royals prior to them dumping him this past spring, meanwhile one or all of Hermosillo, Adell and Marsh just kill it across the board, you can kiss Goodwin's arse goodbye, where best case scenario for him is a 4th outfield spot on the roster. 

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