The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[totdprods]

51 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I think as far as maximizing value goes -- if they end up keeping Jones, Marsh, Adell and putting them all at AAA they end up way ahead.

I'm not against trading guys to improve the MLB roster -- I just happen to think this season more than any in the franchise's history calls for ownership to step up in a significant way and if it means taking some financial losses, so be it.  If it was me, and I was valued at 3.3 Billion dollars while potentially looking to get a stadium deal, I'd spend big knowing full well the farm will allow me to bring the salaries back down within a couple years and that a better park will re-energize that has to be feeling a great deal of loser fatigue, both on and off the field.   This is Arte's offseason IMO.  Nobody can do more to help this team right now that he can.

I'd love to see what a AAA team with Suarez, Jones, Marsh, Adell, and Sandoval could do both as a unit and with some more AAA seasoning -- I mean, the old man of that bunch is Sandoval who is 22.  They are incredibly young.

Keep one of Thaiss/Ward up and have him be the Bour piece.  See what LaStella does in a year that may or may not see a juiced ball.   Allow for Jones and Marsh to force the Angels hand and move them up only when keeping them down serves no purpose.   We have a ton of lower level prospects with upside -- try to cash in on their tools and look for trade partners looking to restock and improve their farm systems but looking 2-3 years down the road.

Keep the readily available talent, because this team needs it now -- not in three years.

I agree with this 100%. It’s also why I think Eppler should get an extension, or at least this year and next to be really evaluated.

I’m not a fan of this narrative that 2020 is a make or break year or Eppler’s last chance to make this team a major contender - I worry it’ll lead to a knee-jerk trade or two or a bad signing. We’ve been on a great path. The constant injuries have effed up timelines for prospects and muddied expectations on where we should be by now. 

My guess is something in between. Eppler does get more payroll to work with - maybe not as much as he could (should?) while also having to make a tough trade, due in part to the pressure to win-now and to work within payroll constraints. 

Edited October 16, 2019 by totdprods

[halomatt]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

I agree with this 100%. It’s also why I think Eppler should get an extension, or at least this year and next to be really evaluated.

I’m not a fan of this narrative that 2020 is a make or break year or Eppler’s last chance to make this team a major contender - I worry it’ll lead to a knee-jerk trade or two or a bad signing. We’ve been on a great path. The constant injuries have effed up timelines for prospects and muddied expectations on where we should be by now. 

My guess is something in between. Eppler does get more payroll to work with - maybe not as much as he could (should?) while also having to make a tough trade, due in part to the pressure to win-now and to work within payroll constraints. 

Yep.  I agree.  Eppler should get more time to develop the system.  Knee-jerk reactions end up costing this team for years. 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, halomatt said:

Yep.  I agree.  Eppler should get more time to develop the system.  Knee-jerk reactions end up costing this team for years. 

2021 has been the year I expected a corner to start turning for a couple years now. Barria, Sandoval, Suarez, Canning...none of them were expected to pitch in the majors last year. Our rotation was Heaney, Skaggs, Harvey, Cahill, Stratton, and Pena. We wound up needing all of them - and more. 

Adell wasn’t expected to come along this quickly either. 

Our prospects arrived sooner than expected. The volume of injuries and Skaggs’ death took a toll on the org’s collective psyche and perception. It’s easy to understand the want for immediate results in 2020 to help move past everything, but deep down, I think we need one more season still. And by all means, we should still pursue pieces for the long-term right now, like Cole, but I don’t think we *need* to trade prospects or sign two more mid-tier FA SPs just for instant gratification to get past recent traumas.

[stormngt]

28 minutes ago, totdprods said:

2021 has been the year I expected a corner to start turning for a couple years now. Barria, Sandoval, Suarez, Canning...none of them were expected to pitch in the majors last year. Our rotation was Heaney, Skaggs, Harvey, Cahill, Stratton, and Pena. We wound up needing all of them - and more. 

Adell wasn’t expected to come along this quickly either. 

Our prospects arrived sooner than expected. The volume of injuries and Skaggs’ death took a toll on the org’s collective psyche and perception. It’s easy to understand the want for immediate results in 2020 to help move past everything, but deep down, I think we need one more season still. And by all means, we should still pursue pieces for the long-term right now, like Cole, but I don’t think we *need* to trade prospects or sign two more mid-tier FA SPs just for instant gratification to get past recent traumas.

How was Barria not expected to pitch in 2019 when he was the most successful pitcher in 2018.

2019 was bad year for him.  I hope it had to do with the how the Angels played him.  Obviously 2020 is more of a question mark on Narria ability. 

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, stormngt said:

How was Barria not expected to pitch in 2019 when he was the most successful pitcher in 2018.

2019 was bad year for him.  I hope it had to do with the how the Angels played him.  Obviously 2020 is more of a question mark on Narria ability. 

He wasn’t supposed to be here in 2018. And if they expected him to be a regular contributor, they wouldn’t have bumped him for Stratton right before the season started. Obviously, with his prior experience, of those four, it was safe to assume he’d see some innings in 2019, but even as injuries mounted, he didn’t see much time the first half of the year. The FO obviously seemed to want to hold off on relying on him much. Is it development? Upside? Not sure.

Edited October 16, 2019 by totdprods

[Docwaukee]

5 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I think as far as maximizing value goes -- if they end up keeping Jones, Marsh, Adell and putting them all at AAA they end up way ahead.

I'm not against trading guys to improve the MLB roster -- I just happen to think this season more than any in the franchise's history calls for ownership to step up in a significant way and if it means taking some financial losses, so be it.  If it was me, and I was valued at 3.3 Billion dollars while potentially looking to get a stadium deal, I'd spend big knowing full well the farm will allow me to bring the salaries back down within a couple years and that a better park will re-energize a fanbase that has to be feeling a great deal of loser fatigue, both on and off the field.   This is Arte's offseason IMO.  Nobody can do more to help this team right now that he can.

I'd love to see what a AAA team with Suarez, Jones, Marsh, Adell, and Sandoval could do both as a unit and with some more AAA seasoning -- I mean, the old man of that bunch is Sandoval who is 22.  They are incredibly young.

Keep one of Thaiss/Ward up and have him be the Bour piece.  See what LaStella does in a year that may or may not see a juiced ball.   Allow for Jones and Marsh to force the Angels hand and move them up only when keeping them down serves no purpose.   We have a ton of lower level prospects with upside -- try to cash in on their tools and look for trade partners looking to restock and improve their farm systems but looking 2-3 years down the road.

Keep the readily available talent, because this team needs it now -- not in three years.

I feel exactly this way.  knee jerking into a trade would be a big mistake right now unless it were for a stud with 4 years of control.  If they make a big move and it's for a guy with 2yrs of control, I don't think I'll be very happy.  

you can't force open a window of competitiveness or if you do, that rarely if ever works the way you want it.  It has to be more organic.  Adding a couple of core farm guys to the existing mlb core will make for much more sustainable long term success.  

[ettin]

6 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I think as far as maximizing value goes -- if they end up keeping Jones, Marsh, Adell and putting them all at AAA they end up way ahead.

I'm not against trading guys to improve the MLB roster -- I just happen to think this season more than any in the franchise's history calls for ownership to step up in a significant way and if it means taking some financial losses, so be it.  If it was me, and I was valued at 3.3 Billion dollars while potentially looking to get a stadium deal, I'd spend big knowing full well the farm will allow me to bring the salaries back down within a couple years and that a better park will re-energize a fanbase that has to be feeling a great deal of loser fatigue, both on and off the field.   This is Arte's offseason IMO.  Nobody can do more to help this team right now that he can.

I'd love to see what a AAA team with Suarez, Jones, Marsh, Adell, and Sandoval could do both as a unit and with some more AAA seasoning -- I mean, the old man of that bunch is Sandoval who is 22.  They are incredibly young.

Keep one of Thaiss/Ward up and have him be the Bour piece.  See what LaStella does in a year that may or may not see a juiced ball.   Allow for Jones and Marsh to force the Angels hand and move them up only when keeping them down serves no purpose.   We have a ton of lower level prospects with upside -- try to cash in on their tools and look for trade partners looking to restock and improve their farm systems but looking 2-3 years down the road.

Keep the readily available talent, because this team needs it now -- not in three years.

Fully agree with the premise, I think they should hold on to most if not all of their rising prospects. That being said if I had to point to two prospects that could be on the block that would be Jahmai Jones and Jordyn Adams at this moment in time with the latter being much less likely than the former.

This is why the idea of Arte authorizing an actual payroll increase (and you can argue about how much for days) is much more likely as you suggested. I like how you called it Arte's offseason because that hits the nail right on the head.

40 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I feel exactly this way.  knee jerking into a trade would be a big mistake right now unless it were for a stud with 4 years of control.  If they make a big move and it's for a guy with 2yrs of control, I don't think I'll be very happy.  

you can't force open a window of competitiveness or if you do, that rarely if ever works the way you want it.  It has to be more organic.  Adding a couple of core farm guys to the existing mlb core will make for much more sustainable long term success.  

I know you have drifted a bit away from the Angels being really competitive in 2020 but I still feel that if they can successfully add Gerrit Cole plus at least one other starter from free agency, address catcher (primary strong side platoon type), and address depth in a meaningful manner, 2020 will have a better shot than recent years, particularly if team health holds up.

Trading for a stud with 4 years of control will be difficult unless the Angels can take a Jones or Adams type prospect and package them up with MLB talent which isn't out of the question in my opinion but may prove difficult. Picking up a one-year rental on the other hand may prove more achievable, particularly if Arte opens up the wallet far enough.

Either way I think we need to stay the overall course in farm development and hopefully Moreno lets loose the hounds (money).

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

2021 has been the year I expected a corner to start turning for a couple years now. Barria, Sandoval, Suarez, Canning...none of them were expected to pitch in the majors last year. Our rotation was Heaney, Skaggs, Harvey, Cahill, Stratton, and Pena. We wound up needing all of them - and more. 

Adell wasn’t expected to come along this quickly either. 

Our prospects arrived sooner than expected. The volume of injuries and Skaggs’ death took a toll on the org’s collective psyche and perception. It’s easy to understand the want for immediate results in 2020 to help move past everything, but deep down, I think we need one more season still. And by all means, we should still pursue pieces for the long-term right now, like Cole, but I don’t think we *need* to trade prospects or sign two more mid-tier FA SPs just for instant gratification to get past recent traumas.

2020 will the a year of contention, but you're right in that 2021 will be the year where we really develop into a powerhouse, and overtake the Astros hopefully.

Eppler didn't get that extension, and Maddon is under contract longer than Billy is. If reports are true that there managerial change was driven by Arte, I think the message here is clear. 

Arte has lost patience, and it's time for Eppler to win, or get out. He's done a great job rebuilding the farm and that's going to you're long term results, but simply put, Eppler has been absolutely awful in free agency. 

Eppler is going to be given more money to spend and is going to be tasked with winning, period. He's got the manager, and now he needs to go out and get the personnel.

It's not the most ideal situation, but Eppler really doesn't have anyone to blame but himself here. My guess is that Eppler will indeed spend money, but in order to fill all the holes this roster has, he's going to be forced into a scenario where he'll have to trade some of that prospect capital that you really don't want to part with. Like Jordyn Adams, Matt Thaiss, Jose Soriano and Jahmai Jones for some mid rotation starter with three years of control. An absolutely awful trade to make, but when your job is on the line, you either make that trade and stay employed but with less bright of a future, or don't make the trade, get fired and set up the next GM quite nicely.

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, ettin said:

 

I know you have drifted a bit away from the Angels being really competitive in 2020 but I still feel that if they can successfully add Gerrit Cole plus at least one other starter from free agency, address catcher (primary strong side platoon type), and address depth in a meaningful manner, 2020 will have a better shot than recent years, particularly if team health holds up.

Trading for a stud with 4 years of control will be difficult unless the Angels can take a Jones or Adams type prospect and package them up with MLB talent which isn't out of the question in my opinion but may prove difficult. Picking up a one-year rental on the other hand may prove more achievable, particularly if Arte opens up the wallet far enough.

Either way I think we need to stay the overall course in farm development and hopefully Moreno lets loose the hounds (money).

I haven't drifted that far honestly.  I think the current team has a very good offense and solid pen without any additions.  I think getting Ohtani back at full strength will be huge but that's still a bit of an 'if' at this point. Cole is the lynch pin to the whole thing.  I think we have a decent shot at winning 90 games if he's one of the pitchers they add.  If they don't, I think we're in the 87ish range with two other additions.  I have also gone on record as to how important I think a guy like Grandal can be.  I also think Canning, Barria, Sandoval and Suarez are going to provide improved contribution.  At least two of them.  My guess is that it's Canning and Barria in 2020 and Sandoval and Suarez further down the line.  

It sounds counter intuitive to some degree, but that's why I don't think they're ready to give up a chunk of farm currency in trade.  I kinda want to see it happen first even though I think it can.  I also think that a handful of guys in the minors could have substantially increased value a year from now.  

I won't have a problem making a substantial trade at the deadline if they're rolling though as long as it's to help with a shot at the division.  Not just to make us a potential WC team.  

I'm kinda throwing out the 18-41 record to finish the season.  I think the 54-49 mark is more indicative of where this team sits in terms of overall talent.  In general, a .500 team.  Even a couple mediocre pitchers probably has more impact to the overall team than their individual value would suggest.  

Frankly, I am way more optimistic about the potential of what 2020 could be vs. that of 2019 but my hope and enthusiasm took a hit when we signed Harvey and Cahill so if we end up with a couple meh rotation arms, I think we'll certainly be better but right now my expectations are probably higher than they should be.  

[Angelsjunky]

The only way the Angels "overtake" the Astros in 2021 is if everything goes right for them--including signing Cole--and a lot goes wrong for the Astros. Don't forget the Astros are coming off their third 100+ win seasons and are simply stacked. Yes, they'll lose some players, but they also have some up-and-comers and their farm keeps re-supplying the major league team (where the F*ck did Alvarez come from? Where do they get these wonderful toys?).

Maybe the Astros come back down to earth a bit, but they're still going to be a very good team for years to come. 

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The only way the Angels "overtake" the Astros in 2021 is if everything goes right for them--including signing Cole--and a lot goes wrong for the Astros. Don't forget the Astros are coming off their third 100+ win seasons and are simply stacked. Yes, they'll lose some players, but they also have some up-and-comers and their farm keeps re-supplying the major league team (where the F*ck did Alvarez come from? Where do they get these wonderful toys?).

Maybe the Astros come back down to earth a bit, but they're still going to be a very good team for years to come. 

They are potentially going to have a lot of turnover in pitching.  They have Whitley, but things we really thinned out pitching wise for them.  Not predicting doom or anything but whenever you have to replace 4 or 5 pitchers there is potential for things to go sideways.   They just don't have the minors depth they used to and should they suffer through some Angels like rash of pitching injuries they won't be able to trade their way through it without part in with some offense

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

They are potentially going to have a lot of turnover in pitching.  They have Whitley, but things we really thinned out pitching wise for them.  Not predicting doom or anything but whenever you have to replace 4 or 5 pitchers there is potential for things to go sideways.   They just don't have the minors depth they used to and should they suffer through some Angels like rash of pitching injuries they won't be able to trade their way through it without part in with some offense

Other than Cole, they have most of their key players through 2021. So I would think their window of dominance at least extends through then. Last year for best Astros:

2019: Cole (hopefully), Miley

2020: Brantley, Springer, Reddick

2021: Verlander, Greinke, Correa, McCullers

2022: Gurriel

2023+: Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez

 

By guess is that they keep Springer, but have Kyle Tucker to replace Brantley. You can't really replace Cole, but Whitley replaces Miley. So the 2020-21 team should still be great, even without adding anyone or re-signing Cole.

2022 gets a bit more dicey. But they have some years to figure out how to re-vamp the team. Still, that is the most likely year that the Angels have a serious chance of surpassing the Astros.

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

The only way the Angels "overtake" the Astros in 2021 is if everything goes right for them--including signing Cole--and a lot goes wrong for the Astros. Don't forget the Astros are coming off their third 100+ win seasons and are simply stacked. Yes, they'll lose some players, but they also have some up-and-comers and their farm keeps re-supplying the major league team (where the F*ck did Alvarez come from? Where do they get these wonderful toys?).

Maybe the Astros come back down to earth a bit, but they're still going to be a very good team for years to come. 

Cole has big shoes to fill.  Huge.  That's not an easy thing to make up and if one of Verlander or Greinke start to show some cracks, it won't be that easy.  Their offense isn't going to stop being the best in baseball anytime soon though with Tucker and Alvarez coming on board.  

Whitley looked great in the AFL (unfortunately) so he's a huge piece for them.  

We can only hope that Gurriel starts to show his age, Springer leaves after 2020, and guys like Josh James, Framber Valdez, Cionel Perez, and Whitley don't develop as much as they might.  

But yeah, after looking at what they've got going forward, they're still pretty stacked.  Their farm has weakened considerably though and payroll could start to be an issue for them going forward.  But they're very smart so it's gonna be very interesting to see what happens for them over the next couple years.  I don't think they'll continue to be a 100+ win juggernaut but certainly 90+ for the next 3-4 years is reasonable to assume.  

[Angelsjunky]

You can never predict 100 wins - it is generally an outlier, with only one or two teams a year surpassing that mark. The Astros are so good that if they entire team came back next year (including Cole), I'd predict 100+ wins.

But yeah, Cole is irreplaceable. I'm not sure he's absolutely leaving, though. I don't know why people just assume that. But even if he leaves, you can pencil them in for 95+ wins next year, and probably in 2021 as well. But yeah, 2022 and beyond is more questionable - but they'll figure out a way to remain at least competitive if not dominant. 

[Pancake Bear]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

You can never predict 100 wins - it is generally an outlier, with only one or two teams a year surpassing that mark. The Astros are so good that if they entire team came back next year (including Cole), I'd predict 100+ wins.

But yeah, Cole is irreplaceable. I'm not sure he's absolutely leaving, though. I don't know why people just assume that. But even if he leaves, you can pencil them in for 95+ wins next year, and probably in 2021 as well. But yeah, 2022 and beyond is more questionable - but they'll figure out a way to remain at least competitive if not dominant. 

He won’t be going back to Houston. 

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Other than Cole, they have most of their key players through 2021. So I would think their window of dominance at least extends through then. Last year for best Astros:

2019: Cole (hopefully), Miley

2020: Brantley, Springer, Reddick

2021: Verlander, Greinke, Correa, McCullers

2022: Gurriel

2023+: Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez

 

By guess is that they keep Springer, but have Kyle Tucker to replace Brantley. You can't really replace Cole, but Whitley replaces Miley. So the 2020-21 team should still be great, even without adding anyone or re-signing Cole.

2022 gets a bit more dicey. But they have some years to figure out how to re-vamp the team. Still, that is the most likely year that the Angels have a serious chance of surpassing the Astros.

that timeline help put it into perspective.  I don't think they'll keep Springer though due to payroll related issues.  But it looks like they'll still be very good through 2021 unless Greinke and Verlander start to falter.  So their window could start to close in 2021 and give us an opportunity.  

[Angelsjunky]

There's another Cole the Angels might want to draft: Cole Percival.

Yep, that's Troy's kid.

I can't find much info on him, but I think he was a sophomore in college last year. 6-5, 220 lbs. Mid-90s heat, I think.

Edited October 16, 2019 by Angelsjunky

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

They are potentially going to have a lot of turnover in pitching.  They have Whitley, but things we really thinned out pitching wise for them.  Not predicting doom or anything but whenever you have to replace 4 or 5 pitchers there is potential for things to go sideways.   They just don't have the minors depth they used to and should they suffer through some Angels like rash of pitching injuries they won't be able to trade their way through it without part in with some offense

And Whitley has suffered a lot from the injury bug, only 197 innings pitched in the minors since being drafted in 2016.     And he was horrible over 59 innings in 2019 (7.99 ERA, 1.73 WHIP).

Although as Doc pointed out, he's had a strong AFL season so far. 

[Angel Oracle]

16 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

There's another Cole the Angels might want to draft: Cole Percival.

Yep, that's Troy's kid.

I can't find much info on him, but I think he was a sophomore in college last year. 6-5, 220 lbs. Mid-90s heat, I think.

2018 frosh stats pitching for his dad at UCR:  3.19 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 87 innings as a starter (14 starts).

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

And Whitley has suffered a lot from the injury bug, only 197 innings pitched in the minors since being drafted in 2016.     And he was horrible over 59 innings in 2019 (7.99 ERA, 1.73 WHIP).

he was terrific in the AFL this year.  

[Inside Pitch]

44 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Other than Cole, they have most of their key players through 2021. So I would think their window of dominance at least extends through then. Last year for best Astros:

2019: Cole (hopefully), Miley

Again, I'm just talking about the potential pitcher turnover.   

Cole, Miley, McHugh, Rondon, Smith, and Harris are all pending free agents.  Those 6 combined for 600 innings.  Harris led the team in appearances, Rondon was third...  It's not an insignificant situation.

They will be looking to replace 41% of their total pitched innings...   Sometimes that can prove difficult.

[Angel Oracle]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Again, I'm just talking about the potential pitcher turnover.   

Cole, Miley, McHugh, Rondon, Smith, and Harris are all pending free agents.  Those 6 combined for 600 innings.  Harris led the team in appearances, Rondon was third...  It's not an insignificant situation.

They will be looking to replace 41% of their total pitched innings...   Sometimes that can prove difficult.

And for how much longer can Verlander and Greinke, both in their mid-30s, log heavy innings? 

[Inside Pitch]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

he was terrific in the AFL this year.  

He was terrific in the AFL last year too, and in ST this year.

[Pancake Bear]

27 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

And Whitley has suffered a lot from the injury bug, only 197 innings pitched in the minors since being drafted in 2016.     And he was horrible over 59 innings in 2019 (7.99 ERA, 1.73 WHIP).

Although as Doc pointed out, he's had a strong AFL season so far. 

Not uncommon to struggle early. The kid for the White Sox had an awful first season. Turned it around this year. 

[Chuck]

Jo Adell is happy! 

 

Now we go! Welcome home Joe! This is gunna be a fun ride! 2020 wya?!?! https://t.co/El5uZH4o14

— Jo Adell (@jordonadell) October 16, 2019