ESPN Ranks Angels as Having Fourth-Best Offseason So Far

[Capital_Dave]

Insider-only article by a staff writer ranks the Angels in the "Big Gainers" category with the Nats, Reds, and Mets.  Something for the "less is more" / "trust Eppler" partisans.

 

4. Los Angeles Angels
Change: Gain of 5.6 wins
Current forecast: 87.5 wins (2019 rank: 9 | 2018 final rank: 15)

The Angels have added Matt Harvey, Jonathan Lucroy, Trevor Cahill and Justin Bour, and can also expect to get a key piece back from injury in Zack Cozart. More than anything, though, the Angels haven't lost anybody of impact except maybe starter Matt Shoemaker. Only two teams have lost less WAR from its season-ending 2018 roster than L.A. As it stands, the Angels are positioned to battle the Tampa Bay Rays for the second wild-card slot in the American League. Traditionally, that slot -- from the hot stove perspective -- is highly volatile. The Angels could stand to make major gains from the addition of another couple of impact pitchers.

 

[totdprods]

I buy it. We haven't subtracted anything of impact, have several young contributors at the ready, and acquired a handful of interesting players cheaply so far.

[popo85]

Adding a bat like Moose or one more pen guy would be my ideal wish for the rest of the off-season

[Inside Pitch]

Something somethng.... Punting....

[tdawg87]

But

[Stradling]

Don’t tell that to Angel fans.  

[wopphil]

It isnt hard to envision this being a 90+ win team if a few things break right. But another good starter and pen arm would go a long way. And I am getting on board with Mous as well.

[Lou]

field goals are boring 

[totdprods]

12 minutes ago, wopphil said:

It isnt hard to envision this being a 90+ win team if a few things break right. But another good starter and pen arm would go a long way. And I am getting on board with Mous as well.

Could say this team is overdue for a season where all or most things break our way finally.

[floplag]

I think thats pretty accurate actually.  Imagine where we might be if we had actually added more WAR though    

[gurn67]

If Albert would retire, that would probably move them into first place.

[eligrba]

Must be disappointing for some postersb and wonkers.

[Lou]

42 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Must be disappointing for some postersb and wonkers.

Haha

Nice 

[Blarg]

Meh, I think his post Floped and lagged a little.

[Blarg]

Worst off-season this year will be the team that gives Machado a 10 year contract. 

[beatlesrule]

13 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Worst off-season this year will be the team that gives Machado a 10 year contract. 

Why exactly? What if he puts up great numbers for most of it and wins a World Series?

[Second Base]

You can never predict what will and won't go right, and that's maddening. 2014, pretty much everything that could go right, did. 2016-2018, pretty much everything that could go wrong, did. In these predictions, we assume neutral fortune, but nothing about the Angels in the last 5 years has been neutral as it seems to be for most teams. 

If it's neutral, I'm just going to go ahead and assume a few things I probably shouldn't. 

- Jon Lucroy is an upgrade both offensively and defensively. The numbers away from Oakland were much better and the way he handled that pitching staff was pretty miraculous. +1 win.

- Pujols will continue to fall off the proverbial cliff, which makes the team worse, but Justin Bour's presence should make up for the deficit. +/-0

- Despite the lackluster offensive performance, Kinsler was still worth 2.5 wins in 2/3 of a season with the Angels. Putting Cozart or Fletcher or even La Stella out there, I think it's hard to predict them being worth more than that. +/-0.

- It's hard to predict Andrelton Simmons being better than the 6 wins he was worth last year, though I do get the feeling he's going to have a career year at the plate this next season. Still, +/-0

- Cozart and Ward were hot garbage at third base last year, and both figure to get the majority of the starts at third base again. There's no way to confidently predict they'll be better. 

- Kole Calhoun will be better, but still not great. He's got the right environment, right coach, and he's in a contract year. +1 win. 

- Mike Trout will be Mike Trout. He might get hurt and be worth 8 wins, he may be healthy and in top form and be worth 13. I'm going to say he's worth 11, so +2.

- Justin Upton is as consistent as they get. +/-0

- Shohei Ohtani is likely to miss Spring Training, which has proven to be a killer for most hitters. But he'll also log more at bats than he did last year, so I'll say it's break even. +/-0

- Starting rotation: They were blessed with a half year of Richards and Ohtani, and the staff this year quite frankly can't match that unless Harvey is in his rookie form, which no one predicts. They also had the best 2/3 of a season that Tyler Skaggs has ever pitched. And Jaime Barrie's performance does not appear to be repeatable based on his peripheral stats. However, these some room for optimism, Andrew Heaney is another year removed from Tommy John surgery and has been as consistent as they come. He's entering his prime now, so he'll likely improve. Tyler Skaggs has also reached his physical peak and can hopefully replicate last years performance but across a full season. The addition of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill has a lot of directions it can go. But it's fair to say both will likely be better than they were last year. But the big difference between last year and this year figures to be depth. Pena, Canning, Suarez, Sandoval are all a lot better than what was there beyond the starting five last year. Still, because of the lack of upside in this unit, I think they're pretty much going to break even with last year's staff, but will be better in one key way, working deeper into ball games. +/-0.

Bullpen: Statistically, last year's unit wasn't bad, and statsticlaly' this years unit should be about the same, though they do figure to be deeper. I'll say +/-0.

Conclusion: The pessimist in me says this is likely a 76 win team in 2019. The optimist says this is a 93 win team. The luck neutral version of this crap job at predicting/projecting says they're an 85 win team. And that's basically what I see right now, 85 wins. Not good enough for a wild card spot, they'll probably remain about 5 games out the majority of the season. But they will finish above the Rangers and Mariners, and probably even with the A's.

If Eppler was willing to bring in Mike Moustakas or Jed Lowrie, then I could see them being an 87-88 win ball club, and if they brought in Shelby Miller or Drew Pomeranz and it actually worked out, they could be an 89/90 win team. These things are certainly doable within their budget. The Angels do have the available resources to win the second wild card and stay within budget. But I don't think do it. I think Eppler's pretty much done after spending 24 million. 

[Blarg]

29 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Why exactly? What if he puts up great numbers for most of it and wins a World Series?

Or, he is Manny Machado the entire contract and plays like he doesn't give a shit because he's not that kind of guy. 

[Pujols4MVP]

I like that they didn't sign any FA's long term. Too many FA's sign their big contract & then play the rest of their career on cruise control not caring about winning. Sign the best players you can to short term deals for not alot of money, those guys want to do well in order to get a bigger contract.

[angelsnationtalk]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

Worst off-season this year will be the team that gives Machado a 10 year contract. 

Worst off-season move would be the Nationals re-signing Bryce Harper for more than the 10 year 300M contract they offered. 

If they end up offering more than that then boy are they a little desperate....

[angelsnationtalk]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

You can never predict what will and won't go right, and that's maddening. 2014, pretty much everything that could go right, did. 2016-2018, pretty much everything that could go wrong, did. In these predictions, we assume neutral fortune, but nothing about the Angels in the last 5 years has been neutral as it seems to be for most teams. 

If it's neutral, I'm just going to go ahead and assume a few things I probably shouldn't. 

- Jon Lucroy is an upgrade both offensively and defensively. The numbers away from Oakland were much better and the way he handled that pitching staff was pretty miraculous. +1 win.

- Pujols will continue to fall off the proverbial cliff, which makes the team worse, but Justin Bour's presence should make up for the deficit. +/-0

- Despite the lackluster offensive performance, Kinsler was still worth 2.5 wins in 2/3 of a season with the Angels. Putting Cozart or Fletcher or even La Stella out there, I think it's hard to predict them being worth more than that. +/-0.

- It's hard to predict Andrelton Simmons being better than the 6 wins he was worth last year, though I do get the feeling he's going to have a career year at the plate this next season. Still, +/-0

- Cozart and Ward were hot garbage at third base last year, and both figure to get the majority of the starts at third base again. There's no way to confidently predict they'll be better. 

- Kole Calhoun will be better, but still not great. He's got the right environment, right coach, and he's in a contract year. +1 win. 

- Mike Trout will be Mike Trout. He might get hurt and be worth 8 wins, he may be healthy and in top form and be worth 13. I'm going to say he's worth 11, so +2.

- Justin Upton is as consistent as they get. +/-0

- Shohei Ohtani is likely to miss Spring Training, which has proven to be a killer for most hitters. But he'll also log more at bats than he did last year, so I'll say it's break even. +/-0

- Starting rotation: They were blessed with a half year of Richards and Ohtani, and the staff this year quite frankly can't match that unless Harvey is in his rookie form, which no one predicts. They also had the best 2/3 of a season that Tyler Skaggs has ever pitched. And Jaime Barrie's performance does not appear to be repeatable based on his peripheral stats. However, these some room for optimism, Andrew Heaney is another year removed from Tommy John surgery and has been as consistent as they come. He's entering his prime now, so he'll likely improve. Tyler Skaggs has also reached his physical peak and can hopefully replicate last years performance but across a full season. The addition of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill has a lot of directions it can go. But it's fair to say both will likely be better than they were last year. But the big difference between last year and this year figures to be depth. Pena, Canning, Suarez, Sandoval are all a lot better than what was there beyond the starting five last year. Still, because of the lack of upside in this unit, I think they're pretty much going to break even with last year's staff, but will be better in one key way, working deeper into ball games. +/-0.

Bullpen: Statistically, last year's unit wasn't bad, and statsticlaly' this years unit should be about the same, though they do figure to be deeper. I'll say +/-0.

Conclusion: The pessimist in me says this is likely a 76 win team in 2019. The optimist says this is a 93 win team. The luck neutral version of this crap job at predicting/projecting says they're an 85 win team. And that's basically what I see right now, 85 wins. Not good enough for a wild card spot, they'll probably remain about 5 games out the majority of the season. But they will finish above the Rangers and Mariners, and probably even with the A's.

If Eppler was willing to bring in Mike Moustakas or Jed Lowrie, then I could see them being an 87-88 win ball club, and if they brought in Shelby Miller or Drew Pomeranz and it actually worked out, they could be an 89/90 win team. These things are certainly doable within their budget. The Angels do have the available resources to win the second wild card and stay within budget. But I don't think do it. I think Eppler's pretty much done after spending 24 million. 

Agree with this completely. If the pitching staff can remain healthy then I think we easily have a better year than last year. I don’t think Ohtani will have much of a hit on his outcome like we all think. Keep in mind that last year he came to a brand new country, new league and basically was improvising and learning as he went. Not to mention he dealt with TJ news and still hit just fine. Compare that to this season and I’d imagine him to do the same if not better since he knows what to expect and only needs to focus on one thing. Plus he’s a kid and he’ll adjust way quicker than someone older. I wouldn’t worry too much about Ohtani this year.

[failos]

lol ESPN

[T.G.]

If only Scioscia was still the manager....

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Agree with this completely. If the pitching staff can remain healthy then I think we easily have a better year than last year. I don’t think Ohtani will have much of a hit on his outcome like we all think. Keep in mind that last year he came to a brand new country, new league and basically was improvising and learning as he went. Not to mention he dealt with TJ news and still hit just fine. Compare that to this season and I’d imagine him to do the same if not better since he knows what to expect and only needs to focus on one thing. Plus he’s a kid and he’ll adjust way quicker than someone older. I wouldn’t worry too much about Ohtani this year.

I think they will to an extent. Harvey, Cahill, Heaney, Barria and Skaggs could all get 150 innings. And with a pen as deep as ours is, that should be enough. At that point we have to wonder about quality though.

[angelsnationtalk]

Sure. All we need is health and I really do believe we have a shot at the WC. Maybe an extra piece in the bullpen could solidify it even more, but with health we could have a small shot. 

When we started the season last year our players were showing their best. With health, we could have more of an extended time with those moments.