Which player will rebound?

[Docwaukee]

Kole Calhoun - entering age 31 season
2014-17 - .260/.329/.425/109 +.  3.1 WAR avg
2018 - .208/.283/.369/ 80+.  0.7 WAR

Justin Bour - entering age 31 season
2015-17 - .272/.344/.498/ 129+.   1.3 WAR avg (in 400 PA/yr)
2018 - .227/.341/404/746 110+.  0.6 WAR

Zack Cozart - entering age 33 season
2014-17 - .255/.318/.423/ 98+.  2.8 WAR avg (443 PA/yr)
2018 - .219/.296/.362/ 82+.  0.1 WAR in 253 PA

Jonathan Lucroy - entering age 33 season 
2014-17 - .283/.352/.438/ 110+.  3.0 WAR avg (524 PA)
2018 - .241/.291/.325/ 71+.  -0.7 WAR
 

 

[totdprods]

All of them?

For the first time in years, I’m optimistic for Kole. The summer stretch he put up was too consistently good to be a total fluke, and with the coach that turned him around now in the dugout with him, I’m thinking we see a good year - not the .900+ OPS monster he was during summer time, but I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he managed a career year offensively, topping  an .800 or even .850 OPS.

Bour worries me the most - he seems like he’d be fairly easy to shift against, doesn’t run very well, isn’t much of a BA guy to begin with...sort of three-true outcomes, with two of those, HR and K, recently trending the wrong way. 

Cozart wasn’t terrible the two years (well, one and a half) before his ‘breakout’ 2017. He won’t repeat that, but I think a .250/.325/.425/.750 could be very doable and with his defense, worth the money.

Lucroy I feel good about too. He won’t be near his peak, but I read he had gone to work improving making contact. He had the lowest BAbip of his career last season, and while his power is decreasing, he’s also cutting down on his strikeouts, and maintaining a decent walk rate. If he can handle the pitching staff as well as Oakland claims he did last year and put up a .250/.325/.375/.700, I’d be pretty happy.

[floplag]

not sure i count a guy coming off injury as a rebound type (Cozart), but my choice from the list is Calhoun if for no other reason that if he doesnt we are in deep doodoo

[Angelsjunky]

I think all of them will, to varying degrees. My predictions:

Calhoun: .257/.334/.418, 18 HR, 2.4 WAR in 139 games

Bour: .263/.352/.471, 22 HR, 1.8 WAR in 122 games

Cozart: .257/.328/.424, 16 HR, 2.2 WAR in 134 games

Lucroy: .271/.348/.437, 17 HR, 2.8 WAR in 138 games

 

I'm pretty optimistic, though.

[Second Base]

Calhoun won't rebound as much as he will simply be a little more consistent. He's been slow to adjust for a few years now and that suddenly won't go away. So now rebound, just slight improvement.

Bour had some bad luck in the BABIP department last year, but its it's also teams learning how to defend and pitch to him. So he will be a little better, but not much. 

Cozart was never good to begin with. He wont be as bad as he was last year playing injured, but he's 33, out of his prime, and has battled injuries pretty much every year of his career. So 2019 will be another shortened season for him, but he'll be a bit better than last year.

Lucroy is going to have a very good year. He was BABIP'd to death last year and his numbers were much better away from Oakland. So he'll hit .270, and guide Angel pitchers so well that he earns a two year extension.

So all four will improve, but the only one I'm calling a rebound is Lucroy.

[krAbs]

If I have to pick, I think Calhoun.

But, I kinda doubt any of them will fully rebound. My hope is that most (all?) split the difference. I know, I know, downer, but I feel like the last couple years have taught me not to rest too much hope on rebounds.

[Docwaukee]

31 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think all of them will, to varying degrees. My predictions:

Calhoun: .257/.334/.418, 18 HR, 2.4 WAR in 139 games

Bour: .263/.352/.471, 22 HR, 1.8 WAR in 122 games

Cozart: .257/.328/.424, 16 HR, 2.2 WAR in 134 games

Lucroy: .271/.348/.437, 17 HR, 2.8 WAR in 138 games

 

I'm pretty optimistic, though.

this would be amazing.  You pair that with Trout, Simmons, Upton, and Ohtani?  damn.  the topper would be a breakout by Rengifo at 2b.  

[ettin]

56 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Kole Calhoun - entering age 31 season
2014-17 - .260/.329/.425/109 +.  3.1 WAR avg
2018 - .208/.283/.369/ 80+.  0.7 WAR

Justin Bour - entering age 31 season
2015-17 - .272/.344/.498/ 129+.   1.3 WAR avg (in 400 PA/yr)
2018 - .227/.341/404/746 110+.  0.6 WAR

Zack Cozart - entering age 33 season
2014-17 - .255/.318/.423/ 98+.  2.8 WAR avg (443 PA/yr)
2018 - .219/.296/.362/ 82+.  0.1 WAR in 253 PA

Jonathan Lucroy - entering age 33 season 
2014-17 - .283/.352/.438/ 110+.  3.0 WAR avg (524 PA)
2018 - .241/.291/.325/ 71+.  -0.7 WAR
 

 

Bour is probably the most "concerning" out of the group because a lot relies on his bat. The rest are good defenders so their floors in terms of WAR will probably lift them up out of the gutter.

[Pancake Bear]

I’m dubious Lucroy improves much if at all. Dunno on Bour. Calhoun and Cozart I think rebound to roughly league average offense (100ish wRC+) with improved defense from Cozart, putting them both as 2-3 WAR level players over a full season. 

[Docwaukee]

I'm by far the most bearish on Cozart.  

@Second Base you keep saying he was playing hurt last year but he didn't play at all after his should was injured from what I could tell.  Was there something else?  

I saw poor to mediocre defense at best.  I have very little confidence in his bat unless he can find some semblance of 2017 because he wasn't very good before that.  

Sometimes guys have a career year because they figured something out and that's what I was hoping for, but it clearly didn't stick.  

 

I think Bour and Calhoun go back to normalish.  Serviceable/solid but not great.  

I am gonna give Lucroy a 2.5-3.0 WAR year for 2019 which is a major improvement.  He's not gonna be the 5 or 6 WAR guy he was a couple times, but I am thinking a good season for him.  

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

I'm by far the most bearish on Cozart.  

@Second Base you keep saying he was playing hurt last year but he didn't play at all after his should was injured from what I could tell.  Was there something else?  

I saw poor to mediocre defense at best.  I have very little confidence in his bat unless he can find some semblance of 2017 because he wasn't very good before that.  

Sometimes guys have a career year because they figured something out and that's what I was hoping for, but it clearly didn't stick.  

 

I think Bour and Calhoun go back to normalish.  Serviceable/solid but not great.  

I am gonna give Lucroy a 2.5-3.0 WAR year for 2019 which is a major improvement.  He's not gonna be the 5 or 6 WAR guy he was a couple times, but I am thinking a good season for him.  

I may be misremembering, but I thought his shoulder had been bugging him before he was actually diagnosed with the labrum tear. 

Defensively at 3B, you're right, Cozart was more mediocre than anything, but Cozart actually looked fantastic at 2B. The whole 3B experiment only came about because of Kinsler and the plan was to move him over to 2B for 2019 and 2020. However, I think with Fletcher and Ward's unexpected development in 2018, and Eppler's reluctance to spend on offensive help, we'll probably see Cozart with a 50/50 split in time spent at 2B and 3B. 

But I don't foresee the year going that well for him, and the amount of prospects being developed doesn't bode well for him. I think he'll either be injured or passed up on the depth chart by the end of 2019. Come 2020, if he's still on the roster, it will be as a utility infielder, if he's on the roster at all. That might just be a sunk cost. Not a great foray in the FA for Eppler.

There's no way, outside of a 2017 redux that Cozart hold off Fletcher, Ward, Rengifo and Jones.  

[totdprods]

I will say this about Cozart...small sample size abound, but his best defensive and offensive numbers came with him playing 2B. Probably not nearly enough to base his playing time doing forward, but if he was more comfortable and effective there, the Angels should focus on getting someone else who could cover 3B.

@Second Base, I also recall hearing something about Cozart’s shoulder bothering him too. I even think I remember his original trade to Seattle in 2016? 2017? did not materialize because there were some injury concerns.

[UndertheHalo]

If Bour gives the Angels that .340 OBP and 20+ HR then I’ll be happy. 

I have basically zero faith that they get much of anything from the others.  Cozarts shoulder injury has me very skeptical for him.  And I don’t get you guys that keep saying you expect Calhoun to bounce back.  The guy has been complete shit for literally a year and a half of baseball.  I watch the Angels a lot and I honestly can’t summon any enthusiasm for him.  He slumped right back into being horrible again last year.  Even after he got hot when he came back.  As much as I’d like to pretend I think he’ll be alright, I just don’t.  This guy just isn’t good now. 

Edited January 5, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[angelsnationtalk]

My money is on Lucroy since his past stats have been consistently higher as opposed to Calhoun and Cozart having one good year and the rest mediocre at best.

Although I pray it’s Cozart that has the best year cuz then his value shoots up and  teams start calling at the deadline. Fletcher, Rengifo, Jones are waiting to make a permanent push so it’s time for us to start moving players. We could be big sellers come deadline time.  

[Docwaukee]

just checked.  Cozart never played after his shoulder injury so his struggles were injury free.  

eyes and metrics concur that he was much better at 2b.  He was meh to poor at 3b and bad when he backed up SS.  

If Ohtani starts the season on the DL, you've got Bour at 1b, Albert at DH.   I would like to see Cozart at 2b and Fletch at 3rd and it's not even close.  Fletch was terrific at both.  Cozart was good at second in limited time.  I would start there.  

Your short bench is Smith, La Stella, and Herm/Bourjos (would love an upgrade here personally).  5 SP and 8 relievers.  

I ultimately like Fletch as the guy coming off the bench and not the everyday guy.  But I still like La Stella.  So when Ohtani comes off the DL, I don't know what's gonna happen but that kinda stuff usually works itself out.  

I am torn between hoping some of the kids get a shot and getting a guy like Moustakas on the cheap.  

[JarsOfClay]

I think Cozart and Calhoun are pretty much done as everyday starters in MLB, I think Kole is better suited as a 4th OF at this point and Cozart a utility INF. If the angels roll these 2 out as starters next year you can pretty much say goodbye to any chance of making the playoffs next year.

The Bour signing I didnt understand, angels needed a guy who can hit lefties not righties. Pujols should be playing against righties only so Im really baffled about this move.

I think Lucroy will rebound and have a great year, I've always liked him and thought the angels should go after him, so I'm looking forward to see how he handles the pitching staff.

[eligrba]

I hate that the Angels have 4-5 players being discussed for this topic.

Need to be patient.

Need to be patient.

Need to be patient.

Holy shit..........how much longer?

[nate]

I think that Cozart will rebound.  Not sure about the rest.

[Stradling]

Honestly Cozart is probably the safest bet based on the fact he is a patient hitter that knows how to draw a walk.  

[Pancake Bear]

https://mobile.twitter.com/FabianArdaya/status/1081627621576781824

Lucroy thinks he’s figured out his problems from the last two years. Hopefully so. But where have we heard that before in the offseason?

[popo85]

Magic Man Santana he will sign here and have a season like 2017- 3.28 era 221 innings 5 complete games 167k's

[Docwaukee]

23 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/FabianArdaya/status/1081627621576781824

Lucroy thinks he’s figured out his problems from the last two years. Hopefully so. But where have we heard that before in the offseason?

from every player that has had a down year ever.  

or like my golf game where I go out and have a crappy round.  then hit the range and 'figure something out'.  then go out and have a crappy round.  

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

from every player that has had a down year ever.  

or like my golf game where I go out and have a crappy round.  then hit the range and 'figure something out'.  then go out and have a crappy round.  

I actually remember back in the day Vernon Wells reworking his swing in the off-season...just before playing so poorly that he ended up retiring pretty soon after, iirc. It does work occasionally, though. But I’m not holding my breath. 

[Stax]

If Angelsjunky  predictions prevail the Angels will make the playoff.

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Stax said:

If Angelsjunky  predictions prevail the Angels will make the playoff.

I agree  with you      post .