If things had gone differently this off season.....

[Make Angels Great Again]

We're absolutely due for some good health from our SP, so there's that. I am expecting 25+ starts from Skaggs, Heaney, and Barria at least. Hopefully 30+ each.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

We're absolutely due for some good health from our SP, so there's that. I am expecting 25+ starts from Skaggs, Heaney, and Barria at least. Hopefully 30+ each.

I think it’s worth recalling the Angels were extremely lucky with pitching injuries for a good, long stretch. Odds caught up to us last three years. It should balance back out at some point.

2019 could be the year that everyone finally stays healthy, and if that’s the case, this is a competitive team, no doubt. 

[Docwaukee]

45 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

I'm tiring of the "what if" threads, that always point to a rosier next year than the one previous. This is the third off season in a row, with the same result.  We have several "what if" threads going right now. And a dearth of "can't wait" or "now that" threads. Also plenty of "just missed out" threads, with the usual excuses of why a player didn't sign here or why we didnt need him, anyway. . 

IF my aunt had nads, she'd be my uncle.

Hoping our IFs turn to WHENs, on AW, at some point. 

 

you have to realize that we've been rebuilding yet taking an unconventional approach due to the fact that we've got the best player in baseball.  

So it's kind of a hybrid where we wait for the next gen of cheap controllable help yet still spend here and there to keep the team competitive and we don't trade away any current players that make the major league team better even though they could probably help rebuild more quickly.  

The entire process is going to be filled with what ifs, but it's a hell of a lot more positive than it was three years ago when the franchise was on the verge of a major meltdown with a pretty poor major league roster, tons of pitching injuries and the worst farm system in baseball.  

While it's hard not to focus on the current off season being a bit boring and/or frustrating, I would encourage people to see the dramatic difference that Eppler has made over the last three years.  

[WeatherWonk]

So, Fangraphs predicts another team that is 29-30th in payroll, beats us out again. Great.

Our only salvation at being a PROBABLE WC team is to sign a legit closer or a legit leadoff guy or both. 

I think Britton is going to have a great year, now that he is apparently healthy. And I think Lowrie is the best leadoff choice out there that this ownership would consider.

Britton and Lowrie and we displace TB as the Fangraphs favorite. 

Oh yeah, what if we signed these guys?????????

 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, WeatherWonk said:

So, Fangraphs predicts another team that is 29-30th in payroll, beats up out again. Great.

Our only salvation at being a PROBABLE WC team is to sign a legit closer or a legit leadoff guy or both. 

I think Britton is going to have a great year, now that he is apparently healthy. And I think Lowrie is the best leadoff choice out there that this ownership would consider.

Britton and Lowrie and we displace TB as the Fangraphs favorite. 

Oh yeah, what if we signed these guys?????????

 

is fangraphs really what we're using to determine the teams chances?  Even if we do those things we're all still in the wild card hunt.  

we need some good things to happen.  Mostly we need our top 5 starters to make about 25-30 starts each.  That would a long way to a good season.  

[Stradling]

I’m in favor of us signing a closer and Lowrie and I do think that would give us a much more balanced team.  Another lefty in the line up that gets on base at a good clip.  A guy like Britton or Ottavino would really help this team a ton, especially when Middleton gets back.  

[Torridd]

On 1/1/2019 at 11:43 AM, Dochalo said:

and let's say that we signed Eovaldi/Happ, Cahill, Ramos, and Bour.  That would be a total of 37.5m.  

Would you be happy? 

or do you think it's good that we've addressed most spots and still have some money left to improve?  

would you be upset if we stopped where we're at?  

or give us a different path based on what Eppler has done.  ie, no trades etc.  

I'm used to the Angels making deals that would give their fans hope for the upcoming season. I expected an acquisition to shore up our starting pitching, but also based on reacquiring Richards and/or keeping Shoe. I didn't figure we'd lose both. That said, I was more concerned with our offense and  I'm very disappointed in what's happened so far. I expect our third problem, the bullpen, will be solved before the season starts.

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Torridd said:

I'm used to the Angels making deals that would give their fans hope for the upcoming season. I expected an acquisition to shore up our starting pitching, but also based on reacquiring Richards and/or keeping Shoe. I didn't figure we'd lose both. That said, I was more concerned with our offense and  I'm very disappointed in what's happened so far. I expect our third problem, the bullpen, will be solved before the season starts.

betting on Shoe to help us this year is risky at best.  He's really a non factor as he would be 6-8th on the depth chart.  Richards is out the whole year so at best you are getting him for 2020 and even still, his contribution for that season is anything but set in stone.  Plus, he's gonna get paid 14m at minimum.  

I think we're going to be pleasantly surprised in regard to the offense this year.  

our combined production from C, 1b, RF, 3b was .219/.277/.362/.639 over 2566 PA for a wRC+ of 76.  I know it would have been nice to upgrade, but there are some subtle improvements along with the fact that we've got some depth to replace Cozart and Calhoun should they be as bad.  

the real key is going to be replacing the 65 starts from guys not named Heaney, Barria, Skaggs and Pena which amounted to 280.2 ip and a 5.13 era.  Which I think Harvey and Cahill can do with ease along with the depth beyond them is Suarez, Canning, Pena, Peters, etc.  They'll have to really if this team is going to have a shot.  I would really like to see some additional depth in the area more than on the offensive side frankly.  

I think the pen will be good.  Better than last year for sure.  

[Angel Oracle]

The pen does need to add a Robertson or Ottavino.    There is a lack of experience in the late innings portion of the pen.   Even for the A'th, Treinen had enough experience prior to 2018, to move into the closer role.   No one on the Halos currently can be counted on to do the same.  

Lowrie and either of those two late innings guys would be a solid close to the off-season.

Ward then gets more seasoning as a 3B in AAA, Rengifo gets more seasoning in AAA, Cozart moves to 2B, and Fletcher or LaStella becomes the super utility guy?   

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the more this off season develops, the more I'm ok with the route Billy has taken.  I don't like the Corbin deal.  I don't like the Kikuchi deal.  We were never going to get Machado or Harper.  No chance I want to see them spend on Keuchel.  Don't think it would have been wise to pay Happ what he got.  Or Morton.  Considering their age.  Eovaldi got paid for what he did in the playoffs.  The Lance Lynn deal is going to be a disaster.  Miller, Familia, Kelly, Soria?  Donaldson, Murphy?  Richards, Sanchez?  The only deal I felt was a fit for us was Ramos and he wanted to play for the Mets.  Or the Suzuki deal.  Neither of which are likely to change our 2019 fate substantially.  

There's still value out there and I think Billy will make some minor moves but nothing that will jump off the page.  

At this point, I am more interested in getting Trout extension talks going.  The sooner Machado and Harper sign, then maybe I'll start to get interested again.  

Some of those contracts would have been good signings. At the price, Happ and Morton would've been great signings. But things didn't go the Angels way, and that's ok. The only deals that I've seen so far that I'm truly glad the Angels didn't win the bidding on are Corbin and Eovaldi. Corbin is being paid like a consistent ace, and great as he is, he's neither of those. And Eovaldi, stastically there's very little difference between him and Trevor Cahill, but financially there's a difference of tens of millions.

 

[Docwaukee]

I'm fine with not committing 30+ mil to guys entering their 35 and 36 yo seasons.  

[Second Base]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'm fine with not committing 30+ mil to guys entering their 35 and 36 yo seasons.  

That's only one side of the coin though. The other side says that Happ has reeled off four straight quality seasons in a hitter friendly environment with great K and BB rates. Moving to a pitcher friendly park and out of the AL East in general could have resulted in career years. 

Its like saying the Angels just committed 20+ million to two oft injured starting pitchers while not bringing another's back at 3 million. It's just one side of the story.

[Stradling]

Not to mention to get Morton you’d have to pay him even more than he actually signed for.  He gets to play 30 minutes from home on a team that had a good year last year in a state that has no state income tax.  

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Not to mention to get Morton you’d have to pay him even more than he actually signed for.  He gets to play 30 minutes from home on a team that had a good year last year in a state that has no state income tax.  

both would have required the 3rd year in all likelihood.  Even still, Morton wasn't an option.  Guys in their late 30's can turn into pumpkins pretty quickly and without a lot of warning.  

[Stradling]

Also I don’t care for the Happ deal.  At first I was ok with the Lynn deal and I’m still so so on it as a bounce back guy.  

[ettin]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Also I don’t care for the Happ deal.  At first I was ok with the Lynn deal and I’m still so so on it as a bounce back guy.  

My recommendation for Happ in the Primer Series was based solely on his ability to get batters on both sides of the plate out, not unlike Patrick Corbin, Robbie Ray and to a lesser degree Matt Harvey. When his price shot up more than expected I can see why the Angels passed and I am perfectly okay with that. Matt Harvey on an $11M one-year deal is a very reasonable Plan B compared to what Happ pulled down at his age.

[Hubs]

13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

is fangraphs really what we're using to determine the teams chances?  Even if we do those things we're all still in the wild card hunt.  

we need some good things to happen.  Mostly we need our top 5 starters to make about 25-30 starts each.  That would a long way to a good season.  

Interesting note, last time the Angels had 5 starters make at least 25 starts was....2001. Pat Rapp, Ismael Valdez, Washburn, Schoeneweis, and Ramon Ortiz.

I think they need 4 guys to give us 30. That has happened on nearly all the Angels good pitching staffs.

In 2002, they had Ortiz (32), Washburn (32), Appier (32), Sele(26) all give us 26 or more and Schoeneweis gave us 15, because he was replaced by Lackey midseason who started 18 games.

In 2003, they almost did it as well, but Appier was replaced by Scot Shields midseason.

In 2004, they added Cy Young Winner Colon (34), and the tripod, Kelvim Escobar (33), to the previous seasons staff. Ortiz suffered some injury issues, and pitched out of the pen some, but Washburn (25), Lackey (32), and Sele (24) all started 24 games or more in addition to the games started by the new additions.

In 2005, Ortiz departed, but they brought in Paul Bryd and Ervin Santana, and 4 guys pitched 29+ Santana pitched only 23. Excobar was limited to 7 starts.

In 2006, Weaver took over for his brother midseason, 3 guys pitched 30+...They missed the playoffs.

In 2007, 4 guys pitched 26 or more, but Colon struggled, and it looked like he was maybe done. He's still pitching 12 seasons later. http://www.angelswin-forum.com/forums/topic/37405-if-things-had-gone-differently-this-off-season/?page=4

In 2008, 5 guys pitched at least 24, and 4 of them had 30+. Won 100 Games

In 2009, only two guys pitched 30, one pitched 27, one 23, and the other 48 starts were made by Matt Palmer, Shane Loux, Sean O' Sullivan, Scott Kazmir, Trevor Bell, Anthony Ortega, Dustin Moseley, Kelvim Escobar and of course, Nick Adenhart.  They still won 97 games based mostly on timely offense.

In 2010, They had Weaver (34), Santana (33), Pinero (23), Kazmir (28), and Saunders had 20, but was replaced by 14 game starter Dan Haren at the deadline. So again, close.

In 2011, Joel Piniero was the only one to miss, at 24 starts. Haren (34), Weaver (33), Santana (33), and Tyler Chatwood all made 27 or more.

In 2012, 4 guys had 30, with Haren, Weaver, Santana, and Wilson all getting 30 or more. Greinke Replaced Jerome Williams midseason, and Garret Richards made his debut with 9 starts.

In 2013, Wilson pitched 33, but Weaver, Vargas, Williams, all had 24 or 25. Blanton and Tommy Hanson rounded out the staff. The vaunted four horsemen, basically doomed this team to suck.

In 2014, Five guys pitched over 20, and a sixth pitched 18.

In 2015, Five guys pitched over 21, and a sixth pitched 18.

In 2016, Weaver had 31, the next guy had 27 and Santiago at 22, was replaced by Nolasco midseason with 11. They couldn't nail down a constistent 5th and 6th guy.

In 2017, Nolasco started 33, and he and three other guys had 20+, and then the 5th and 6th and 7th guy had 16, 14, and 13.

2018 was even worse with only Heaney having 30, Skaggs getting 24, Barria 26 (and 5 in SLC), and then the next four guys were between 10 and 19.

 

I'd be happy if the team could get 4 guys between 27-33. The 5th spot, not so concerned, especially if Cahill gets pushed to the pen by say, Griffen Canning. That would be fine.

 

[Hubs]

The rotation as currently constructed has 5 guys who pitched 20+, but only one made 30, Andrew Heaney.

Heaney made 30, Harvey 28, Barria 26, Skaggs 24, and Cahill 20. Pena and Tropeano would be next, right? I think they should still get Sonny Gray.

 

[WeatherWonk]

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

The rotation as currently constructed has 5 guys who pitched 20+, but only one made 30, Andrew Heaney.

Heaney made 30, Harvey 28, Barria 26, Skaggs 24, and Cahill 20. Pena and Tropeano would be next, right? I think they should still get Sonny Gray.

 

I think we have lots of serviceable starter options, especially when you consider the guys at AAA,  but no legitimate lock-down closer. Spend money there.

It would SUCK if we miss a playoff spot, simply because we couldn't hold leads.......at any time during the season. Been there, done that. Out of the gate,, late in the season, whenever. After all, you cant win a playoff spot in April and May, but you can lose one. 

Our two new hitters are from hitter-friendly NL parks. They may go through an AL adjustment period in a tougher park to hit in.. Ohtani will not be hitting for the first month or more. We need to limit runs until our offense reaches its potential peak. Albert will be "fresh" and they will give him ABs. Cozart will be facing big league pitching for the first time in eight months or so. Who knows which Calhoun shows up? Our offense could really suck, early on. We'd better be able to limit runs.

There really isnt any closer options coming up through the ranks, are there? If we can get a legit closer for three years or less, why not? It's not so much money that it would prevent signing Trout to an extension.