What 2019 Really Is (and why Eppler is taking the right course)

[Angelsjunky]

There are some who are disappointed with Eppler's relatively modest off-season so far: he didn't sign any big name free agents, whether intentionally or because they simply wanted to play elsewhere. No Corbin, Ramos, Happ, Eovaldi, Morton, Donaldson, Familia, etc - all players that would have significantly improved the team. Instead we got a strange group of players in  Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Justin Bour, Jonathan Lucroy, and Kevan Smith--not to mention his usual few clean peanuts.

Now the offseason isn't over. The two biggest fish--Bryce Harper and Manny Machado--remain on the board, as well as the top free agent catcher, Yasmani Grandal, and top reliever, Craig Kimbrel. There are alsoquite a few other interesting options such as David Robertson, Jed Lowrie, Dallas Keuchel, Mike Moustakas, Asdrubal Cabrera, Marwin Gonzalez, DJ Le Mahieu, Brian Dozier, etc. And of course there's Kikuchi.

But the Angels, presumably, only have another $10-15M to spend. That pretty much prices them out of Harper, Machado, and Keuchel. Kimbrel seems unlikely, and if Grandal still expects 4/$60M+, he won't be donning an Angels uniform. Maybe the Angels take a flier on a reliever as well as an infielder, although it is also possible they are basically set with what they have.

Eppler has been known to surprise us (e.g. the Andrelton Simmons trade). But the moves so far tell us quite a bit about what  his plan is. Consider that they are all one-year deals for players mostly coming off down years, who are solid bets to provide decent returns, but also with small chances of being huge bargains if they rediscover former glories. In other words, they aren't the type of players that you acquire if you are dead-set on competing in 2019; they are the type of players you acquire if your focus is on the future and are filling holes in the mean-time, yet also don't want to write off your chances of competing in 2019. In other words, they are the type of players that you can hope will surprise, but probably shoudn't expect to.

If Eppler was focusing on the so-called "Trout Window" of 2019-20, he'd have gone hard after a more reliable starter--if not Corbin, then certainly Keuchel or Happ. He'd have signed at least one elite reliever, and have upgraded the offense in some significant way - either offering more to Ramos or signing Grandal. He also could have traded some of their prospect capital for further upgrades. A few other tweaks and the team could have been a good bet for 90 wins. Yes, it would have pushed the budget up higher, but he could have done so while staying under the salary cap.

But the problem with that approach is that while it makes the team better over the next few years, it lessens the chances of long-term success through tying up funds in more good but non-premium players (Keuchel being a prime example). The Angels already have a near-term salary problem, with $80M owed to three players in 2019 (Trout, Pujols, Upton), $84M to the same three in 2020 (plus another $15M to Simmons, to make it $100M for four), and if we assume that Trout is extended for $40M/year and Simmons for $20M/yr starting in 2021, that's $113M for four players in 2021. That's also the year Tyler Skaggs hits free agency and Shohei Ohtani has his first arbitration year. Thankfully Cozart ($12.67M/yr) comes off the books, so that helps a bit.

In 2022, the Angels will (hopefully) be paying Trout, Simmons, and Upton something like $90M, but then Upton comes off the books, but then you have to factor in extensions for various players, rising arbitration, etc. 

Fielding a competitive baseball team is expensive. Unless you're willing to spend $200M+ a year, you need to be savvy and try to fill as much of your roster with low-cost talent. The best way to do that is through farm development. You focus on growing talent from within, then you extend the best of that talent, and augment the team through free agency and trades. But you protect that farm talent as best you can, because it is the source of your low-cost talent. 

The temptation for many a GM is to trade that talent for "Proven Veterans." Sometimes this is the right thing to do (e.g. Simmons), but sometimes it is devastating, both by leaving the farm barren of talent and requiring more money spent on free agency, and you end up with crippling albatrosses like Wells, Pujols, and Hamilton.

Back to 2019. What I see Eppler doing is focusing on the 2020s. He hopes to be competitive in 2019--that's why he did spend some money, rather than just "playing the kids." But he refuses to dip into the quickly improving--but still delicate--farm system. The Angels, by general consensus, have a farm system ranked somewhere around 10th in the majors. A big trade or two could quickly set them back to around 20th. Continued careful cultivation for another year or two puts them in the top 5. 

Now the farm rankings aren't important - they are rather subjective and conjectural, after all. But what they represent is the point: the quantity and quality of talent. The farm system is getting riper year by year, but isn't quite there yet. In another year or so, it will really start bearing fruit as players like Canning, Suarez, Thaiss, Rengifo, Adell, Marsh, Jones, and Sandoval start contributing on the major league level. Further waves include Soriano, C Rodriguez, Hernandez, Bradish, Jackson, Knowles, Adams, Deveaux, and Maitan.

Last year we saw rookies such as Ohtani, Barria, Anderson, Buttrey, Fletcher, Ward, and Hermosillo. Most of these guys will get better in 2019, when we'll see Canning, Suarez, Rengifo, and probably Thaiss and Adell. In 2020 we'll see Marsh, Jones, Sandoval, and probably others. In other words, each year will see the graduation of promising young talent, with a cumulative effect of both increasing the talent in Anaheim, and also decreasing the need for higher price free agents. 

Eppler knows this, and doesn't want to a) trade this talent away, and b) block the talent with older, more expensive and lower upside players.

Now obviously there's a balance. It is easy to overrate prospects, and probably only a few of the guys I mentioned will become stars, a few more impact players, some quality regulars, and a bunch will be either bench players or minor league flame-outs. But again, that talent pool represents the priceless commodity of "low-cost, high-upside talent" and it has to be protected.

The plan for 2019 is, again, to try to field a wildcard-capable team, but not at the expense of the future. My guess is that Eppler looks at the AL and thinks, "I can either spend big and trade away talent and improve my chances of making a wildcard but not win the division, or spend less, keep the talent, and still have a decent shot at a wildcard." In other words, the Angels almost certainly couldn't seriously compete for the division or be a lock for the playoffs in 2019, and the cost to simply improve wildcard chances in the short term is just too great, and too debilitating to the franchise in the long-term.

2020 will be a further step forward, with more of that young talent graduating and maturing. By 2021 that young talent should be really starting to flourish and be the core of the 25-man roster. In fact, I could see a 2021 team that is comprised mostly of players below age 28, except for a few notable exceptions: Trout, Simmons, possibly Upton, maybe one of Skaggs or Heaney, a few others. 

So the Eppler plan is to continue strengthening the farm, while retooling in the majors in ways that give the team a chance to compete over the next couple years, but with the eye of turning this franchise into a farm-driven powerhouse in the 2020s.

Its a good plan, but requires patience.

[Stradling]

Nice write up AJ.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Ding ding

[eligrba]

A+

[Angelsfan1984]

All I got out of that was del taco fries>in n out potato sticks 

[UndertheHalo]

They definitely could have helped themselves getting a better catcher.  Oh well.  It’s not going to work out.  The patience thing has been the deal for a while.  The Angels just have to wait for the farm to start yielding results.(hopefully) 

Patience is tough this time of year. 

Edited December 30, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[Broad Street]

I think these 1 year deals will become extremely beneficial at the deadline

[UndertheHalo]

Just now, Kody Mac said:

I think these 1 year deals will become extremely beneficial at the deadline

If we suck, then hopefully. 

[Docwaukee]

Nicely done AJ.  a great summary.  

I know you know this, but as the waves of prospects graduate from level to level, their overall value increases even if a few guys who we thought could be prospects flame out.  So you start filling out your major league team and you have this high level prospect redundancy that has way more trade value than a high ceiling prospect in rookie ball.  

It how you acquire Garrett Cole for redundant talent that isn't even all that great.  Or how the Cards got Goldy.  Teams will take solid avg to slightly above potential with 5-6 years of control for a guy that has 1-3 years left and is already established.  But you need to maintain the financial flexibility to do that as well.  

It all starts with the farm .  

[eligrba]

But the Mariners have a top 5 farm system without the wait!!

I want it now!!!!!

I want it now!!!!

I want it now!!!!

[Hubs]

I understand the sentiment here but to think the club is trying to win a wildcard spot is to not understand baseball or competitive sports in general. They are trying to win the division. He’s putting together a club that could win the division. They don’t need to be division favorites or the presumptive favorite in the off-season. But to think that they aren’t trying to put together a winning team is to be shortsighted.

Now, that that is out of the way, they don’t have to mortgage the future to compete now. They can say that if a few things break right they can compete. They don’t have to mortgage the future for the present, but they are trying to win now. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

I understand the sentiment here but to think the club is trying to win a wildcard spot is to not understand baseball or competitive sports in general. They are trying to win the division. He’s putting together a club that could win the division. They don’t need to be division favorites or the presumptive favorite in the off-season. But to think that they aren’t trying to put together a winning team is to be shortsighted.

Now, that that is out of the way, they don’t have to mortgage the future to compete now. They can say that if a few things break right they can compete. They don’t have to mortgage the future for the present, but they are trying to win now. 

I think you miss my point. Eppler isn't "trying to win a wildcard spot." He's trying to build a perennial contender--a team that can compete for the division--while adding a few players that will help the team compete for a wildcard in the mean time.

To compete for the division in 2019 would not only be very difficult with how good the Astros are, but would require just too much resources (money and young talent in trades) and would diminish the chances that the team is a perennial 90+ win powerhouse in the 2020s.

The Angels will have a better chance of competing for the division in the 2020s (I'm guessing 2021 is the first year they have a good shot at it) if they protect their young talent and not tie up the payroll with sub-premium players. Or to put it another way, would you rather have:

1) A very good chance at the wildcard and vaguely decent chance at the division in 2019-20, but less of a chance of perennial contention in 2021 and beyond due to diminished farm talent and payroll issues, or

2) A solid chance at the wildcard and snowball's chance at the division in 2019-20, but very good chance of perennial contention in 2021 and beyond?

The first is the "WTF is Eppler doing?" attitude, the latter is what I believe to be the Eppler Plan. And I like it.

[Second Base]

I seem to remember starting a "patience" thread earlier this offseason saying pretty much the same thing. Not saying you're copying or anything, just saying that I recognize many of the same factors you do, and share the same opinion. 

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Nicely done AJ.  a great summary.  

I know you know this, but as the waves of prospects graduate from level to level, their overall value increases even if a few guys who we thought could be prospects flame out.  So you start filling out your major league team and you have this high level prospect redundancy that has way more trade value than a high ceiling prospect in rookie ball.  

It how you acquire Garrett Cole for redundant talent that isn't even all that great.  Or how the Cards got Goldy.  Teams will take solid avg to slightly above potential with 5-6 years of control for a guy that has 1-3 years left and is already established.  But you need to maintain the financial flexibility to do that as well.  

It all starts with the farm .  

Yes, exactly. This is what I called "Peak Prospect Value," which most of the Angels' prospects haven't reached yet. You don't trade your prospects until they get there.

For example, even if the Angels don't plan on keeping Brandon Marsh (unless they can move Upton), they don't trade him until he puts together the type of year in A+/AA that we all know he's capable of--and that I think he'll have in 2019. He's got some value now, but has a good chance of being significantly more valuable a year from now. Either you have the good problem of having more talent than you can find room for, or you trade him to fill a position of need (maybe catcher or more pitching).

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

I understand the sentiment here but to think the club is trying to win a wildcard spot is to not understand baseball or competitive sports in general. They are trying to win the division. He’s putting together a club that could win the division. They don’t need to be division favorites or the presumptive favorite in the off-season. But to think that they aren’t trying to put together a winning team is to be shortsighted.

Now, that that is out of the way, they don’t have to mortgage the future to compete now. They can say that if a few things break right they can compete. They don’t have to mortgage the future for the present, but they are trying to win now. 

They're not trying to win anything in particular. They are trying to win the most games they can in 2019 without sacrificing anything that can help them from 2020 and beyond. 

Simple

[angelsnationtalk]

8 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They're not trying to win anything in particular. They are trying to win the most games they can in 2019 without sacrificing anything that can help them from 2020 and beyond. 

Simple

I assume we’re betting on the fact that this will make Trout want an extension with us when he sees that we’re going to be much better come 2020 and beyond?

[hangin n wangin]

I really like me some Eppy. Really curious to see how this franchise looks in a couple of years. He came into a garbage dump and has done an absolutely fantastic job stacking some chips. I am fine being patient when I see strategy behind things. Eppler is showing strategy. 

That being said, there has to be accountability. If Eppler doesn’t succeed within the next few years, my questions will arise. But right now, I love what he is doing and I do have faith in him.

[beatlesrule]

I posted pretty much the same thing in one of the threads here although much shorter and I got the Debbie Downer responses.

It's been very clear that he has conceded the division to Houston and that he is working within the budget Arte gave him. If everything goes right, the Angels have a shot at the second wild-card. That's been pretty much discussed to death already though. Next season is shaping up to be pretty much like it was this season. We needed everyone healthy and everyone to have a good year. It didn't happen so all we can do is hope for the best.

It's pretty pathetic when you have the best player in baseball that you just have to hope everyone stays healthy and the rest of his teammates actually play well even with the payroll the angels have. That's the reality though and the Angels will be fun to watch because of certain players they have that's for sure. Arte will get his 3 million fans again.

I'm hoping that Harvey and Cahill pitch well enough to be traded and a team overpays and the Angels farm system gets even better and that gives them an actual shot to win the division in 2020 the last year Trout will be under contract. Hopefully it will be enough to convince him to stay and that Arte actually wants to win a championship.

This team has upside so that's something to look forward to. Yeah, it's a shame that Trout will be wasted another year but just have to hope things are better in 2020.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I assume we’re betting on the fact that this will make Trout want an extension with us when he sees that we’re going to be much better come 2020 and beyond?

I think they’re just trying to make the franchise as strong and healthy as it can be for the long term. I assume it’s the same thing Mike Trout would want. 

 

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, exactly. This is what I called "Peak Prospect Value," which most of the Angels' prospects haven't reached yet. You don't trade your prospects until they get there.

For example, even if the Angels don't plan on keeping Brandon Marsh (unless they can move Upton), they don't trade him until he puts together the type of year in A+/AA that we all know he's capable of--and that I think he'll have in 2019. He's got some value now, but has a good chance of being significantly more valuable a year from now. Either you have the good problem of having more talent than you can find room for, or you trade him to fill a position of need (maybe catcher or more pitching).

even if he has a decent season he'll be worth more.  Outside of him completely crapping the bed, his value will go up.  I think he'll displace Upton to DH in 2021.  

[jessecrall]

9 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

even if he has a decent season he'll be worth more.  Outside of him completely crapping the bed, his value will go up.  I think he'll displace Upton to DH in 2021.  

You don't expect Ohtani to be DHing most of the time in 2021? I imagine Upton could play 1st...

[Broad Street]

14 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

If we suck, then hopefully. 

Not even if we suck honestly. Say Harvey or Cahill pitch well, but our young guns make a major push and are brilliant in AAA... I think it would be difficult not to bring them up, and trade Cahill/Harvey for more prospects, whether we're in contention or not.

[angelsnationtalk]

9 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think they’re just trying to make the franchise as strong and healthy as it can be for the long term. I assume it’s the same thing Mike Trout would want. 

 

Hopefully it is. Either way, it has its pros and cons. 

Pros would be that if Eppler’s plan works then we will be a strong team for many consecutive years in the 2020s

Cons is the fact that we still haven’t won a playoff game with Trout during his career and hopefully he still trusts the front office that it will happen and he’ll sign an extension. 

I also think this might be Pujols’ final season. I think it’s a decision Pujols makes. If that’s the case and he decides to retire, is there any way the Angels can defer his contract? Or are they 100% stuck with it going against their payroll? 

[Jay]

I suppose all of this is less depressing if we imagine that the team will be great at some point in the future.

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, jessecrall said:

You don't expect Ohtani to be DHing most of the time in 2021? I imagine Upton could play 1st...

yeah.  good point.  Although I am not sure Ohtani is going to be a SP forever.  Will be interesting to see how it shakes out.