Questions about the assumed 30-million budget

[floplag]

52 minutes ago, jessecrall said:

@floplag But Houston just won 103 games (with a 109 win pythag) because they have a ton of "decent regulars." They had 4 guys put up between 5-7 WAR, 2 of which they developed (Bregman & Altuve) and 2 for whom they traded (Verlander & Cole). Beyond that, Charlie Morton was their best player at 3.5 WAR. They won because they had a lot of decent starting players, good relievers, bench guys who were solid...the Angels gave a ton of innings and at bats to sub-replacement level players and below average regulars. The Astros didn't. If Jahmai Jones, Jose Suarez, Brandon Marsh and Patrick Sandoval become 2-3 WAR guys under team control and Adell and Canning are little better, that's great. That's the foundation of a contender with Trout, Simmons & Ohtani at the top. You don't need these guys to all become stars. If they did, the Angels would win 120 games a year.

I never said you didnt need decent regulars, i clearly said i wasn't knocking them.   But you are again assuming that when all that happens, assuming it does, that we still have Trout/Ohtani/Simmons, that is still not known.   If we do not, who puts up those higher WARs to make us competitive?

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

I never said you didnt need decent regulars, i clearly said i wasn't knocking them.   But you are again assuming that when all that happens, assuming it does, that we still have Trout/Ohtani/Simmons, that is still not known.   If we do not, who puts up those higher WARs to make us competitive?

Well we know we have Ohtani for five more years, we have Upton for four more years.  We do not know for sure we have Trout or Simmons.  Just like the Astros don’t know if they have Verlander or Cole after next season or Correa or Springer shortly after that.  The Astros know they will have Altuve for 4 more years.  We can be confident that Adell will be a solid contributor and the Astros can be confident that Forrest Whitley and Tucker will be solid contributors.  I do know that we have been drafting in a better draft position the last several years which would favor us going forward, just as it favored them to being drafting near the top of the draft for a few years.  So I guess we will see what happens.  

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Yes they are building around them by building the farm.  I’d still love to see which free agents they could sign this off season that would put us on the same level as Houston.  I mean I guess if we signed Harper, Machado, Corbin and Kimbrel and then traded for Realmuto we’d compete.  It would only add about $100 million a year to the payroll. 

 You like to ignore the fact that we have twice as many mid level prospects than Houston.   So while they have two possible potential stars and we have one (as they are currently rated) we also have twice as many of the prospects rated just below that, which means we have twice the chance they do of having others making the next step and joining Adell or Forest as a top prospect.  Those also give us twice the chance to create major league average players at minimal costs, thus allowing more money to pay for premium free agent talent.   Doc or maybe it was IP has mentioned this to you but you have ignored it because it doesn’t fit your doomsday narrative.  

im not ignoring anything,  im choosing not to count on a "chance" and assume it will come to pass.  Is there a chance that some guys could suddenly become elite prospects, sure, but is that likely?  How often does a player suddenly become something he wasn't before?  
Honestly the exaggerations are beneath you.  Youve seen the exact plans laid out that didnt do anything near that and didnt even approach the lux tax.  Youre a smart guy but always falling back on exaggeration is weak sarcasm that doesnt suit you. 

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

How often does a player suddenly become something he wasn't before?  

When talking about prospects, literally all the time. It happened this year with Luis Rengifo. It will happen next year, too.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

When talking about prospects, literally all the time. It happened this year with Luis Rengifo. It will happen next year, too.

It happened to Adell as well.  

[Stradling]

But Rengifo isn’t elite because experts

[jessecrall]

David Fletcher wasn't highly touted at all and he put up 2 WAR in half a season. Fangraphs, as good a public source as any, had him outside the Angels top-20 before the season. Maybe he goes backward from here but he's already exceeded expectations. It's the sign of a very healthy organization when you're getting contributions from unlikely sources in addition to your first-round picks.

[Stradling]

Everyone understands that talent matures at different times, if it didn’t the following things wouldn’t have happened:

Trout the 27th player drafted would have never been the best player in the league

Altuve who went undrafted wouldn’t be one of the better 2nd baseman ever

Arrenado wouldn’t be an amazing 3rd baseman since he was drafted in the 2nd round

McCutchen was also a 2nd round pick and was one of the best players in the NL for 5 or so years

Bonds would have been the first pick in the draft

Hell every hall of famer ever would have been the first pick in the draft unless they were drafted the same year as another hall of famer

look at the list of rule 5 players that have gone on to be really good players

David Ortiz was released

 

So if a guy who wasn’t drafted in the first couple of picks becomes one of the better players in the minor leagues it shouldn’t be a big surprise.  

[tdawg87]

Oh Barria was basically our best pitcher.

[jessecrall]

Mookie was a 5th round pick who only cracked the bottom-half of Baseball America's top-100 after 3 years in the minors. He came up at 21 and was immediately a stud. 

[Stradling]

In 2010 Mike Trout was the 54th best prospect.  In 2011 he was either 2nd or 3rd behind Bryce Harper and Matt Moore.  So when we talk about the experts saying this or that about a player, it means something but not everything.  There are WAY too many prospects for them to be considered reliable or fact.  

[tdawg87]

Trout was compared to Aaron Rowand

[Stradling]

Bottom line if you weren’t one of the top 2 or 3 prospects picked in the draft you aren’t going to be in the top 50.  If you aren’t in the top 50 then some people will say you aren’t an elite prospect.  

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

There is no such thing as facts from the future as you well know, but there are projections, estimates, trends... all stuff we talk about regarding guys we like or dont like in the bigs but which you seem to want to ignore when it comes to the kids on the farm.

The facts as we sit today are that our farm is rated somewhere between 10-12th and has fewer quality prospects than most above us including 2 in our own division already above us in the standings.  This is not debatable.  Yes, it is possible some may outpace them, some may develop and improve that fate but as of today the facts are as stated until such time as that happens.   Thats not knocking them or belittling them, most will be decent regulars, but there is a large gap between decent regulars and stars. 

Right now we have multiple stars to build around and are choosing not to do that.   Today, if we intended to compete now on the short term between now and this glorious date when the stars align in the future spending IS the only way to fix is as the farm isnt ready to contribute at significant levels.   That is as real as it gets. 

so Billy Eppler is executing the plan you state we are taking on faith.  

yet some people from a baseball site made a list and that makes them experts to where that list should dictate our future.  

I have a question.  Isn't Eppler more of an expert than those other guys?  I'll wait for your answer as to why we are trusting a farm system ranking over the expertise of our GM. 

Also, there is nothing real about the scenario where we spend our way to more wins.  It's not real because it's not going to happen.  It might help and I would certainly would have supported it if it didn't cause financial harm two year from now.  But it didn't happen and it's not going to.  The only thing real about it is your pissing and moaning that it didn't.  

 

[floplag]

33 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

so Billy Eppler is executing the plan you state we are taking on faith.  

yet some people from a baseball site made a list and that makes them experts to where that list should dictate our future.  

I have a question.  Isn't Eppler more of an expert than those other guys?  I'll wait for your answer as to why we are trusting a farm system ranking over the expertise of our GM. 

Also, there is nothing real about the scenario where we spend our way to more wins.  It's not real because it's not going to happen.  It might help and I would certainly would have supported it if it didn't cause financial harm two year from now.  But it didn't happen and it's not going to.  The only thing real about it is your pissing and moaning that it didn't.  

 

You asked for facts, were given facts...  you choose to run back to the same argument noone is actually arguing, again. 
Reminder, my only issue is with conceding the present as it has nothing to do with the long term plan in any way shape or form if done correctly.  
You made a comment about Dipoto having a singular focus that hurt the organization a few days ago, i wonder if youve ever even considered how this plan could be a end up if it doesnt work out as you hope?
No matter, its moot, the team has chosen the frugal route for the foreseeable future, which is their right, and of course yours to support it... it is also mine to disagree. 

[Stradling]

As of right now the Angels have the 5th highest payroll.  FACT.

5th highest payroll equals frugal.  Fiction.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

As of right now the Angels have the 5th highest payroll.  FACT.

5th highest payroll equals frugal.  Fiction.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

lets play complete the sentence and include the part where it said "for the foreseeable future"... or not whichever, lol 

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

lets play complete the sentence and include the part where it said "for the foreseeable future"... or not whichever, lol 

They are fifth and you’ve already stated this is about facts, and we can’t look into the future and see facts.   So I’ll chalk it up to you being unsure of where we stood payroll wise.  Even you wouldn’t think having a top five payroll is frugal.  

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, floplag said:

You asked for facts, were given facts...  you choose to run back to the same argument noone is actually arguing, again. 
Reminder, my only issue is with conceding the present as it has nothing to do with the long term plan in any way shape or form if done correctly.  
You made a comment about Dipoto having a singular focus that hurt the organization a few days ago, i wonder if youve ever even considered how this plan could be a end up if it doesnt work out as you hope?
No matter, its moot, the team has chosen the frugal route for the foreseeable future, which is their right, and of course yours to support it... it is also mine to disagree. 

what facts?  that we don't have a top 5 farm system according to fangraphs or any other publication and that means we're in blind faith mode?  There are facts and then there are conclusions you draw from those facts.  Your conclusions are not facts.  Especially when you fail to consider all the information.  I 'run' back to the same argument because you think it's not relevant but it is.  You just choose not to see it based on your limited scope.  

We're not conceding the present.  We're just not spending what you want them to in order to improve the team beyond what they've already done.  There's a reason for that.  Eppler and Arte don't think it's worth it to do so.  Again, Eppler is the expert and you aren't.  Yet when the expert's way doesn't match your opinion, then it becomes about Arte being cheap even though we have the 5th highest payroll.  If we were conceding the present, why wouldn't we just trade away Skaggs, Heaney, Simmons, Calhoun, and Cozart?  Why did we sign Upton?  Why did we spend almost 30 mil on this years team?  Just because they're not executing your plan, doesn't mean they're conceding.  

Of course I've considered that this plan could fail.  But again, it's not my plan.  For it to fail though, it would mean that most of the players we expect to contribute actually won't. The most likely negative outcome is that it takes longer than expected.  

So at the end of the day, an expert who runs a major league team is executing his plan and that's the only relevant fact.  Your opinion that they should being doing it differently and my opinion that it's being done right are immaterial as to whether it will succeed.  

[YouthofToday]

9 hours ago, floplag said:

I never said you didnt need decent regulars, i clearly said i wasn't knocking them.   But you are again assuming that when all that happens, assuming it does, that we still have Trout/Ohtani/Simmons, that is still not known.   If we do not, who puts up those higher WARs to make us competitive?

I thoroughly enjoy how this community now refers to WAR as a given when talking about value. That is all. 

[Stradling]

11 hours ago, floplag said:

lets play complete the sentence

So this is no longer relevant?  Or is it only relevant in this thread or as it relates to people other than you?  

[Inside Pitch]