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Angels still in on Sonny Gray?


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32 minutes ago, nando714 said:

If they miss on machado , they might need Cozart a little bit more?

Zero chance the Yanks are interested in Cozart. 

18 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Who would trade Matt Thaiss for Sonny Gray and a lower level prospect?

I would!

That’s probably fair. I’d consider it, based on our other offseason moves. If we wound up signing Grandal and Moustakas, definitely. 

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6 hours ago, totdprods said:

Zero chance the Yanks are interested in Cozart. 

That’s probably fair. I’d consider it, based on our other offseason moves. If we wound up signing Grandal and Moustakas, definitely. 

Crap no. Nothing to do with Matt Thaiss being irreplaceable and everything to do with acquiring one of expensive year of a starting pitcher that won't be an ace. The Angels have enou pitchers that they're gambling on upside on with Harvey and Cahill. If it were just a one year, nine million dollar contract, sue, but one year, nine million plus six years of a starting first baseman. Not only that, you're selling low on Thaiss. He hasn't broken out yet. Just because he hasn't yet doesn't mean he won't. Give him one more year. 

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8 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Crap no. Nothing to do with Matt Thaiss being irreplaceable and everything to do with acquiring one of expensive year of a starting pitcher that won't be an ace. The Angels have enou pitchers that they're gambling on upside on with Harvey and Cahill. If it were just a one year, nine million dollar contract, sue, but one year, nine million plus six years of a starting first baseman. Not only that, you're selling low on Thaiss. He hasn't broken out yet. Just because he hasn't yet doesn't mean he won't. Give him one more year. 

Thaiss has a really nice stroke, hits the ball to all fields, dropped his ground ball rate...there's definitely untapped potential and like you said, there's no reason to sell low.

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9 hours ago, Second Base said:

Crap no. Nothing to do with Matt Thaiss being irreplaceable and everything to do with acquiring one of expensive year of a starting pitcher that won't be an ace. The Angels have enou pitchers that they're gambling on upside on with Harvey and Cahill. If it were just a one year, nine million dollar contract, sue, but one year, nine million plus six years of a starting first baseman. Not only that, you're selling low on Thaiss. He hasn't broken out yet. Just because he hasn't yet doesn't mean he won't. Give him one more year. 

I will say, I thought Gray had two years remaining of control - seeing that he only has one does make me much more hesitant. If there was a prospect/out of options player that NYY was needing to clear out of their depth charts that the Angels would also receive, I'd still be interested.

And the Yankees have no shortage of out-of-option arms...
Tommy Kahnle - struggled last year, but had encouraging FIP (4.19) and 11.6 K/9 is controlled through '21. In '16-'17, 2.60 ERA in 90 IP with 121 K.
Domingo German - only 26, 5.22 career ERA in 28 G/14 GS, but 120 K in 100 IP and a FIP of 4.25. 
Luis Cessa - 27 year old swingman - 4.71 career ERA, 43 G, 19 GS 3.74 FIP in 2018. 
AJ Cole - former top 100 prospect, made a few starts with Washington in '17, struck out 49 in 38 IP for NYY out of the pen last season with a decent 4.26 ERA

If the deal was Thaiss (and maybe a lower level lotto ticket) for Gray and one of the above, is it more palatable?
Kahnle, German, and Cole specifically have enough upside and control to stick as a long-term piece.

I get Thaiss' appeal with six years of control, but the FA 1B market is about as cheap and easy to shop in as ever. 
Justin Bour and his career 123 OPS+ was DFaed and cost $2.5m.
CJ Cron came off a 123 OPS+ season and was DFAed and cost a few mil. 
Matt Adams, same deal. Cheap, slightly above average offense.
Even Thaiss' rosiest projections make a 120 OPS+ seem like his ceiling.

And the Angels still have Bour under control next season, as well as Albert. Ward could serve as depth. Upton and even Ohtani could wind up seeing time there in coming years, and Maitan may be a long-term option. Free agency next season offers Abreu, Smoak, Moreland, Goldschmidt, and potentially Thames and Carpenter, any of whom may wind up on the Angels radar depending on Bert and Bour's future.

If Gray turns around, the Angels could have a very good rotation, or a good trade piece at the deadline, or an extension candidate - a dominant return to form could even bring a QO. Not saying I'd definitely do it, but Thaiss + say, Gatto or Rivas for Gray and German/Kahnle was presented, I'd certainly consider. There are a lot of variables we the public would not be aware of that would sway/dissuade me; health, Gray's FA/contract expectations, any future defensive versatility Thaiss may be able to offer, Gray's mental/big-game make-up, Bert's contract future, Maitan as a 1B, etc.
 

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5 hours ago, totdprods said:

I will say, I thought Gray had two years remaining of control - seeing that he only has one does make me much more hesitant. If there was a prospect/out of options player that NYY was needing to clear out of their depth charts that the Angels would also receive, I'd still be interested.

And the Yankees have no shortage of out-of-option arms...
Tommy Kahnle - struggled last year, but had encouraging FIP (4.19) and 11.6 K/9 is controlled through '21. In '16-'17, 2.60 ERA in 90 IP with 121 K.
Domingo German - only 26, 5.22 career ERA in 28 G/14 GS, but 120 K in 100 IP and a FIP of 4.25. 
Luis Cessa - 27 year old swingman - 4.71 career ERA, 43 G, 19 GS 3.74 FIP in 2018. 
AJ Cole - former top 100 prospect, made a few starts with Washington in '17, struck out 49 in 38 IP for NYY out of the pen last season with a decent 4.26 ERA

If the deal was Thaiss (and maybe a lower level lotto ticket) for Gray and one of the above, is it more palatable?
Kahnle, German, and Cole specifically have enough upside and control to stick as a long-term piece.

I get Thaiss' appeal with six years of control, but the FA 1B market is about as cheap and easy to shop in as ever. 
Justin Bour and his career 123 OPS+ was DFaed and cost $2.5m.
CJ Cron came off a 123 OPS+ season and was DFAed and cost a few mil. 
Matt Adams, same deal. Cheap, slightly above average offense.
Even Thaiss' rosiest projections make a 120 OPS+ seem like his ceiling.

And the Angels still have Bour under control next season, as well as Albert. Ward could serve as depth. Upton and even Ohtani could wind up seeing time there in coming years, and Maitan may be a long-term option. Free agency next season offers Abreu, Smoak, Moreland, Goldschmidt, and potentially Thames and Carpenter, any of whom may wind up on the Angels radar depending on Bert and Bour's future.

If Gray turns around, the Angels could have a very good rotation, or a good trade piece at the deadline, or an extension candidate - a dominant return to form could even bring a QO. Not saying I'd definitely do it, but Thaiss + say, Gatto or Rivas for Gray and German/Kahnle was presented, I'd certainly consider. There are a lot of variables we the public would not be aware of that would sway/dissuade me; health, Gray's FA/contract expectations, any future defensive versatility Thaiss may be able to offer, Gray's mental/big-game make-up, Bert's contract future, Maitan as a 1B, etc.
 

It still isn't palatable because Gray really isn't different from Harvey in this case. Both have upside, both are coming off less than stellar campaigns. Harvey got one year, 11 million from the Angels, and didn't cost a prospect. Gray makes two million less, but 6 years of Matt Thaiss is worth way more in terms of production than two million. Even if he doesn't become anything more than replacement level, the deal would still lean toward the Yanks but one million.

But take the fact that Thaiss is a first round pick, has developed into an actual decent defender at 1B, has very good plate discipline and is showing positive signs toward understanding this new swing and approach the Angels have helped him hone, and suddenly you're looking at a future 15-20 HR and .350+ OBP starting 1B. Not elite, but probably has one or two of those type of seasons in him and is likely still a 2 win player each year. 

Even at that very realistic outcome, the Yankees would be ahead by probably 50 million in terms of production vs WAR rate (1 win equals 8-9 million). And Tommy Kahnle certainly won't be recouping that value for the Angels. 

It just isn't a fit. The Angels don't need Gray, but he'd certInly be a luxury. Still, not a necessity. So I'd only be comfortable with a minimal offer that I expect to have some value but not a ton for the Yankees. Something like Michael Hermosillo for Sonny Gray. I know the Yankees asking price is quite a bit higher than that, and even then, that still carries the potential to hurt the Angels in the end because Herm still has untapped potential.  And even if Mike never met that potential, given how dynamic of an athlete he is, even is a 4th OF role, he's still likely to be ether than replacement level. And the Yanks really don't need any more OF's, especially if they chase on Harper.

Again, not a fit, even if I try to make it one.

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36 minutes ago, Second Base said:

It still isn't palatable because Gray really isn't different from Harvey in this case. Both have upside, both are coming off less than Stella campaigns. Harvey got one year, 11 million from the Angels, and didn't cost a prospect. Gray makes two million less, but 6 years of Matt Thaiss is worth way more in terms of production than two million. Even if he doesn't become anything more than replacement level, the deal would still lean toward the Yanks but one million. But take the fact that Thaiss is a first round pick, has developed into an actual decent defender at 1B, has very good plate discipline and is showing positive signs toward understanding this new swing and approach the Angels have helped him hone, and suddenly you're looking at a future 15-20 HR and .350+ OBP starting 1B. Not elite, but probably has one or two of those type of seasons in him and is likely still a 2 win player each year. 

That doesn't seem to difficult to find via free agency every season in the form of guys like Moreland, Bour, Alonso, Adams...all guys who won't give you a 15-20 HRs and .350+ OBP 2 WAR every season, but come pretty close most of the time, and are readily available for just a few mil. I get that Thaiss is cheaper than that still, younger, and there's always potential for more...but his ceiling doesn't seem to be particularly difficult to find elsewhere. 

What's wrong with two Matt Harveys in the rotation? Three even if you count Cahill? 

Another way to look at it, should Gray return to his norms, he certainly gets you at least a Sandoval or Buttrey/Jerez prospect haul at the deadline if the Angels are out of it. And if they're in it, then acquiring Gray is paying off - if even only for this one season. Let's say they aren't, and Gray is dealt for a prospect, is that now worth Thaiss? Gray pitching at his ceiling probably gets you back something similar to Thaiss. Gray pitching to the league averages still probably gets you a package like Sandoval or Buttrey/Jerez. Even if Sandoval or Buttrey/Jerez isn't as 'shiny' a prospect as Thaiss is, I'd wager it'd be a lot easier finding someone to replace Thaiss' absence via FA than it would be finding someone like Sandoval in FA, or two relievers via FA. 

Best case scenario...
1) Thaiss for Gray and German
2) Angels flip Gray at the deadline for, I dunno, Atlanta's Kyle Muller (#14, LH SP, A+/AA like Sandoval, 3.03 ERA in 25 GS, seemed like a fair comp.)
3) Essentially, you traded six season of Thaiss for six seasons of a very projectable 6'6" near MLB-ready Muller, five seasons of Domingo German, and a better shot at making the '19 playoffs. Two assets that are much harder to find cheaply than a 15-20 HR, .350+, 2 WAR 1B.

You still have Bour for '20, or you look at who else is available on a cheap deal like we've seen in recent offseasons for Moreland, Alonso, Valbuena, Cron, etc., or move Ward to 1B and let Fletcher, Cozart, and Rengifo play 2B/SS/3B.

For a likelier scenario, take out Muller, and trade in two MLB-ready pieces with a lower ceiling but higher floor, such as Buttrey/Jerez or Tropeano/Perez, maybe from a team like Houston, who has plenty of MLB-ready talent that may get squeezed out, like AA/AAA 1B 6'7" 1B Taylor Jones or AA LHP Ryan Hartman - neither are in Houston's Top 30, but still could be 10-20 range for the Halos.

And of course, worst-case scenario, Gray sucks ass and winds up hurt, and we dealt Thaiss basically for Domingo German, aka the Yankees JC Ramirez. Which is a possibility. There's risk in everything.

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9 minutes ago, totdprods said:

That doesn't seem to difficult to find via free agency every season in the form of guys like Moreland, Bour, Alonso, Adams...all guys who won't give you a 15-20 HRs and .350+ OBP 2 WAR every season, but come pretty close most of the time, and are readily available for just a few mil. I get that Thaiss is cheaper than that still, younger, and there's always potential for more...but his ceiling doesn't seem to be particularly difficult to find elsewhere. 

What's wrong with two Matt Harveys in the rotation? Three even if you count Cahill? 

Another way to look at it, should Gray return to his norms, he certainly gets you at least a Sandoval or Buttrey/Jerez prospect haul at the deadline if the Angels are out of it. And if they're in it, then acquiring Gray is paying off - if even only for this one season. Let's say they aren't, and Gray is dealt for a prospect, is that now worth Thaiss? Gray pitching at his ceiling probably gets you back something similar to Thaiss. Gray pitching to the league averages still probably gets you a package like Sandoval or Buttrey/Jerez. Even if Sandoval or Buttrey/Jerez isn't as 'shiny' a prospect as Thaiss is, I'd wager it'd be a lot easier finding someone to replace Thaiss' absence via FA than it would be finding someone like Sandoval in FA, or two relievers via FA. 

Best case scenario...
1) Thaiss for Gray and German
2) Angels flip Gray at the deadline for, I dunno, Atlanta's Kyle Muller (#14, LH SP, A+/AA like Sandoval, 3.03 ERA in 25 GS, seemed like a fair comp.)
3) Essentially, you traded six season of Thaiss for six seasons of a very projectable 6'6" near MLB-ready Muller, five seasons of Domingo German, and a better shot at making the '19 playoffs. Two assets that are much harder to find cheaply than a 15-20 HR, .350+, 2 WAR 1B.

You still have Bour for '20, or you look at who else is available on a cheap deal like we've seen in recent offseasons for Moreland, Alonso, Valbuena, Cron, etc., or move Ward to 1B and let Fletcher, Cozart, and Rengifo play 2B/SS/3B.

For a likelier scenario, take out Muller, and trade in two MLB-ready pieces with a lower ceiling but higher floor, such as Buttrey/Jerez or Tropeano/Perez, maybe from a team like Houston, who has plenty of MLB-ready talent, such as Brett Adcock and Brandon Bailey. And of course, worst-case scenario, Gray sucks ass and winds up hurt, and we dealt Thaiss basically for Domingo German, aka the Yankees JC Ramirez. Which is a possibility. There's risk in everything.

You're right, those type of 1B are easy to find in free agency. They typically sign one year, three million dollar deals. At 6 years of Thaiss you're looking at 18 million worth of value. You trade Thaiss for Gray, you're basically paying 1 year, 27 million for a back end starter. I don't care what scraps the Yankees send the Angels way in that trade, it doesn't work for the Angels in their current situation.

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Also, Thaiss made some swing changes (similar to Kole Calhoun's last year...make of that what you will) and in general had a meh season. You may as well give him a shot to either prove he can be the 1B of the future or at least up his value a little with a strong season in AAA with perhaps a call up at some point. Trading him off an .802 OPS season for an OK, not-inexpensive starter we don't really NEED doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

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4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

You're right, those type of 1B are easy to find in free agency. They typically sign one year, three million dollar deals. At 6 years of Thaiss you're looking at 18 million worth of value. You trade Thaiss for Gray, you're basically paying 1 year, 27 million for a back end starter. I don't care what scraps the Yankees send the Angels way in that trade, it doesn't work for the Angels in their current situation.

And what of a potential return from a July trade? Eppler turned Jett Bandy into Martin Maldonado into Pat Sandoval.

What’s six years of another Pat Sandoval-type prospect worth in comparison to Thaiss’ $18m worth of value. Because pitching is worth a whole heck of a lot more than a mid-tier 1B, and we’re a lot heavier on 1B/IF options than we are pitching.

I think some of these acquisitions Eppler makes are made with this in mind. He gets bounce back candidates whom he hopes he can flip at the deadline.

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2 hours ago, totdprods said:

And what of a potential return from a July trade? Eppler turned Jett Bandy into Martin Maldonado into Pat Sandoval.

What’s six years of another Pat Sandoval-type prospect worth in comparison to Thaiss’ $18m worth of value. Because pitching is worth a whole heck of a lot more than a mid-tier 1B, and we’re a lot heavier on 1B/IF options than we are pitching.

I think some of these acquisitions Eppler makes are made with this in mind. He gets bounce back candidates whom he hopes he can flip at the deadline.

If the Yanks give up Sonny Gray and a legitimate pitching prospect that's major league ready in less than a year, in return for Matt a Thaiss, then that organization is headed in the wrong direction. Just doesn't look like a match. 

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5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

If the Yanks give up Sonny Gray and a legitimate pitching prospect that's major league ready in less than a year, in return for Matt a Thaiss, then that organization is headed in the wrong direction. Just doesn't look like a match. 

That isn’t what he said.  He said Gray could be traded at the deadline to bring back a couple of prospects.  

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3 hours ago, totdprods said:

And what of a potential return from a July trade? Eppler turned Jett Bandy into Martin Maldonado into Pat Sandoval.

What’s six years of another Pat Sandoval-type prospect worth in comparison to Thaiss’ $18m worth of value. Because pitching is worth a whole heck of a lot more than a mid-tier 1B, and we’re a lot heavier on 1B/IF options than we are pitching.

I think some of these acquisitions Eppler makes are made with this in mind. He gets bounce back candidates whom he hopes he can flip at the deadline.

Wagering 9 million, plus Matt Thaiss on Gray's return to form and subsequent deadline trade doesn't make a ton of sense. Lots that could go different in that scenario. But someone like Shelby Miller or Drew Pomeranz costing less money and no prospects and returning to form and then flipping at the deadline.....well those both seem just as likely as Gray's scenario yet cost quite a bit less. 

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And it’s not like Gray was absolutely awful last season, has age working against him, or any major red flags - seems like Yankee Stadium and the AL East just aren’t treating him well. 

He seems like a good bet to gamble on and flip midseason, or hang onto and try to re-sign if the club is in it, and Thaiss feels like one of the more expendable prospects we have. And I have a feeling he’s around the price the Yankees are asking.

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