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An optimistic view of Harvey and Cahill signings


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First, I read this article - https://theangelsavenue.com/2018/12/22/angels-appraisal-on-matt-harvey-and-trevor-cahill/

Then, I went to one of my favorite past times, building graphs using FG's graphing format. Mainly just velocity, off-speed usage and heat maps. But here's the basic conclusion....

- Matt Harvey's spin rate recovered to near peak levels to finish 2018.

- Harvey's average velocity reached back up to 96 to finish the season. The last time he generated that velocity was 2015, before TO surgery. 

- Trevor Cahill's numbers were almost identical to Nathan Eovaldi's, who generated a much more expensive contract. 

- In fact, as far as success as a starter and reliever go, there really isn't much separating Nate Eovaldi and Trevor Cahill. Eovaldi throws 5 mph harder but Cahill generates 15% more ground balls.

- In fact, Trevor Cahill is throwing harder and generating more ground balls than he ever has before as a starter. That year as a reliever in Chicago really changed his career arc. 

I know when you're wearing rosy red Angel goggles, you can take any signing and convince yourself of the validity of it. But from where I'm standing right now, I'm not convinced Harvey and Cahill are simply back of the rotation starters. Pitching in front of that defense, ending the season they way they did, these two signings look to me like they have a better than small chance of being something significantly more than one year signings. 

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The optimistic view of the Angels is that Cahill stays healthy, Harvey splits the difference between his peak years and 2018, Skaggs and Heaney build on 2018, and Barria out-performs his FIP and repeats 2018, and at least one of F Pena, Tropeano, Canning, Suarez etc perform well. That gives the Angels four guys in the #2-3 range, a nice group of #4 types. they'd need a good dose of luck, but it could happen.

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Every time I hear the names 'Harvey and Cahill' I can't help but associate them with Appier and Sele. A couple of journeyman pitchers who helped us win a 'wild card' spot in 2002. Hopefully they will bring us some luck, but I really don't think they are going to take us deep into the play-offs. At least not with the batting order we have now.

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44 minutes ago, fanfromday1 said:

Every time I hear the names 'Harvey and Cahill' I can't help but associate them with Appier and Sele. A couple of journeyman pitchers who helped us win a 'wild card' spot in 2002. Hopefully they will bring us some luck, but I really don't think they are going to take us deep into the play-offs. At least not with the batting order we have now.

Harvey and Cahill probably aren’t going to take us deep into the playoffs and I don’t know if anyone expects them to. I certainly don’t...

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39 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Harvey and Cahill probably aren’t going to take us deep into the playoffs and I don’t know if anyone expects them to. I certainly don’t...

If the Angels are in the hunt for a playoff spot, we will more than likely trade for someone at the trade deadline.

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6 hours ago, fanfromday1 said:

Every time I hear the names 'Harvey and Cahill' I can't help but associate them with Appier and Sele. A couple of journeyman pitchers who helped us win a 'wild card' spot in 2002. Hopefully they will bring us some luck, but I really don't think they are going to take us deep into the play-offs. At least not with the batting order we have now.

Appier was coming off a 11-10, 3.57 ERA, 172 SO season w/ Mets and Sele was 15-5, 3.60 ERA, 114 SO w/ Mariners in 2001.   They were acquired after good seasons.  Appier was great because we got rid of Mooo Vaughn.

 

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Addding Yusei Kikuchi would give the Angels a very formidable rotation in 2019. Kikuchi, Heaney, Skaggs, Cahill and Harvey. And more importantly Barria, Pena, Canning and Suarez as depth. The Angels would finally have the pitching necessary to get them into the playoffs if the hitting can take a step forward, though that in itself would be difficult because it would require performances from Calhoun and Cozart that's above any likelihood.

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