Bour/Harvey/Cahill/Grandal/RP

[Hubs]

Is that really a bad free agent haul? For a team needing depth and which has a lot of holes?

[Angelsjunky]

That would be a really nice haul, but I'm not sure Eppler wants to spend the money and lose the draft pick on Grandal. I'm torn, personally. He's one of the better catchers in the league, but we have a really nice track record with round 2 draft picks.

[hangin n wangin]

Well, assuming we get Grandal, I don't think that would be a bad free agent haul considering what the ultimate goal is. To not give out any big contracts and build the farm. 

[floplag]

AS far as catchers, Grandal and his second round pick costs a lot less than what a Realmuto trade would prospect wise and we missed the boat on the Ramoz/Suzuki train.  At this point its either that or bring Back Maldonado and upgrade elsewhere for offense.   which i would be ok with on many levels pending who what position that upgrade was at. 

[Dtwncbad]

9 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Well, assuming we get Grandal, I don't think that would be a bad free agent haul considering what the ultimate goal is. To not give out any big contracts and build the farm. 

Why should the Angels not want to give out a big contract IF it helps them now AND helps them well into the next era when the youth movement arrives?

I know it isn't happening but Machado and Harper are still very young!  They help now and into the next 7-8 years.

Either one of them would be infinitely more wise than the Pujols deal.  Both are way better bets to deliver on the investment, and both will likely get an opt out at about so the true commitment might be 3-4 years.

[Hubs]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

That would be a really nice haul, but I'm not sure Eppler wants to spend the money and lose the draft pick on Grandal. I'm torn, personally. He's one of the better catchers in the league, but we have a really nice track record with round 2 draft picks.

Yeah, except we don't really have a good track record. Angels 2nd round draft picks recently have been high rated prospects, but none contributed as of yet.

The last 2nd round pick that did is Patrick Corbin, then Tyler Chatwood before him, then Kevin Jepsen in 2002, Dallas McPherson in 2001, John Lackey in 1999 and Jarrod Washburn in 1995.

Other than those 6 guys, and the top propsects in Canning, Jones, and Marsh, here's who we've drafted in the 2nd round.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=ANA&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

 

[floplag]

6 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Why should the Angels not want to give out a big contract IF it helps them now AND helps them well into the next era when the youth movement arrives?

I know it isn't happening but Machado and Harper are still very young!  They help now and into the next 7-8 years.

Either one of them would be infinitely more wise than the Pujols deal.  Both are way better bets to deliver on the investment, and both will likely get an opt out at about so the true commitment might be 3-4 years.

Yeah, much like people dont get why these next couple years might matter to Trout, i dont get this.  
If the player is worth it and would be here when that time comes, why is there a wait to spend mentality.  No guarantee a guy is going to be there when you decide its time. 
The negative side of that is they are waiting to see is spending make sense, and that suggests a lack of confidence.  

[hangin n wangin]

8 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Why should the Angels not want to give out a big contract IF it helps them now AND helps them well into the next era when the youth movement arrives?

I know it isn't happening but Machado and Harper are still very young!  They help now and into the next 7-8 years.

Either one of them would be infinitely more wise than the Pujols deal.  Both are way better bets to deliver on the investment, and both will likely get an opt out at about so the true commitment might be 3-4 years.

Well, you would have to ask Arte that. Not sure what’s going on in his head. But I doubt he’s willing to do another huge contract (aside from Trout), until old ass Pujols is gone.

[Angelsjunky]

^Well, you just further my point: our last four second picks were all guys with high upside. They haven't contributed yet because it is the last four years. We'll see Canning this year, Jones and Marsh next.

But I somewhat agree with floplag that the gap between Realmuto and Grandal might not be so large as to warrant the bucketload of prospects difference (minus the second round pick).

[Reveille1984]

What is the hype with Harper anyways?  He had a monstrous season four years ago and has basically been a 3-4 WAR guy the past three years.  I get that he's only 26, but paying $400M over 10 years for "potential" seems like a giant gamble.  

I'd gladly pay Machado though if he's willing to play 3B, even with his attitude issues.  Has been way better than Harper production wise, but someone gets lumped in with him constantly.  

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, Reveille1984 said:

What is the hype with Harper anyways?  He had a monstrous season four years ago and has basically been a 3-4 WAR guy the past three years.  I get that he's only 26, but paying $400M over 10 years for "potential" seems like a giant gamble.  

I'd gladly pay Machado though if he's willing to play 3B, even with his attitude issues.  Has been way better than Harper production wise, but someone gets lumped in with him constantly.  

Trout will be the first $400M contract. Machado and Harper will be the second and third 300M contracts, but neither will break the $400M barrier.

 

[Pancake Bear]

2 minutes ago, Reveille1984 said:

What is the hype with Harper anyways?  He had a monstrous season four years ago and has basically been a 3-4 WAR guy the past three years.  I get that he's only 26, but paying $400M over 10 years for "potential" seems like a giant gamble.  

I'd gladly pay Machado though if he's willing to play 3B, even with his attitude issues.  Has been way better than Harper production wise, but someone gets lumped in with him constantly.  

Try 350 for 12 years. 

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

Yeah, much like people dont get why these next couple years might matter to Trout, i dont get this.  
If the player is worth it and would be here when that time comes, why is there a wait to spend mentality.  No guarantee a guy is going to be there when you decide its time. 
The negative side of that is they are waiting to see is spending make sense, and that suggests a lack of confidence.  

I am only speaking for myself.  So Trout gets $40 million, Harper gets $35 million, Albert would be at $30 million, Upton would be at $25 million.  So that is about $130 million for 4 players after this season.  My guess is that is why.  That doesn’t count upgrading the rotation, extending Simmons or signing a catcher.  At some point we will also want to extend Ohtani more than likely.  So it isn’t really about signing Harper, it is about having Harper and Trout and having those two guys taking up more than a third of the payroll.  But it would be $130 million for four players, add in Simmons and Cozart on their current deals it is now up beyond $155 million.  So signing 19 more players with about $40 million, and hope to be competitive will be very tough.  

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Why should the Angels not want to give out a big contract IF it helps them now AND helps them well into the next era when the youth movement arrives?

I know it isn't happening but Machado and Harper are still very young!  They help now and into the next 7-8 years.

Either one of them would be infinitely more wise than the Pujols deal.  Both are way better bets to deliver on the investment, and both will likely get an opt out at about so the true commitment might be 3-4 years.

timing and money.  the overlap a Harper/Machado contract with a Trout extension would basically restrict any financial flexibility.  It's just reality.  No matter how much we want Arte to open that check book and skirt or even go over the CBT threshold, he's not going to do it for a 7-8 year period.  

Opt outs still assume the team is on the hook for the full amount.  You can't make any other assumption.  

Arte didn't stop spending after the wilson, pujols and hamilton contracts because they didn't work out.  He stopped spending because payroll got to the max level he was comfortable with.  Case in point, when some of that money came off the books, they went an got Upton and Cozart.   If you think that mentality is going to change in the future, then you have unrealistic expectations.  

[Inside Pitch]

31 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

That would be a really nice haul, but I'm not sure Eppler wants to spend the money and lose the draft pick on Grandal. I'm torn, personally. He's one of the better catchers in the league, but we have a really nice track record with round 2 draft picks.

Given they now have at the very least covered the two gaping holes in the rotation -- whether or not to lose the 2nd rounder is a less imposing question.   If you trade for Realmuto you're essentially trading multiple second rounders who are all further along to paying off.  So do they value the potential maybes they MIGHT be able to pick or the multiple maybes they already have.

I'd rather keep the guys they have.  

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I am only speaking for myself.  So Trout gets $40 million, Harper gets $35 million, Albert would be at $30 million, Upton would be at $25 million.  So that is about $130 million for 4 players after this season.  My guess is that is why.  That doesn’t count upgrading the rotation, extending Simmons or signing a catcher.  At some point we will also want to extend Ohtani more than likely.  So it isn’t really about signing Harper, it is about having Harper and Trout and having those two guys taking up more than a third of the payroll.  But it would be $130 million for four players, add in Simmons and Cozart on their current deals it is now up beyond $155 million.  So signing 19 more players with about $40 million, and hope to be competitive will be very tough.  

Completely true, even though i still think Albert steps down in the nest year 2 at most.
Where does that leave us though, unable to sign any stars?  Cant always or often often get what you want in FA on the cheap so are we willing to spend on the right guy to win, or are we not?   
This for me is one of those you cant have it both ways things.  If the guy that helps us win in 20 or 21 is there now, how does that change in 20 or 21 if all that is still here?  The only ones slated to be gone by then are the ones we dont want to lose. 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I am only speaking for myself.  So Trout gets $40 million, Harper gets $35 million, Albert would be at $30 million, Upton would be at $25 million.  So that is about $130 million for 4 players after this season.  My guess is that is why.  That doesn’t count upgrading the rotation, extending Simmons or signing a catcher.  At some point we will also want to extend Ohtani more than likely.  So it isn’t really about signing Harper, it is about having Harper and Trout and having those two guys taking up more than a third of the payroll.  But it would be $130 million for four players, add in Simmons and Cozart on their current deals it is now up beyond $155 million.  So signing 19 more players with about $40 million, and hope to be competitive will be very tough.  

I absolutely guarantee that Billy, Arte, Carpino and the rest of the FO have a plug and play financial spreadsheet that goes out at least 5 years and every possible target is added in order for them to get an overview of the impact going forward.  

There's always going to be other guys to trade for or sign.  And if someone brings up the Beltre thing, it doesn't apply.  Apples to Oranges in terms of contract length and dollar amount.  

[Hubs]

Would you rather have Arenado at 3rd after next year or Machado?

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Completely true, even though i still think Albert steps down in the nest year 2 at most.
Where does that leave us though, unable to sign any stars?  Cant always or often often get what you want in FA on the cheap so are we willing to spend on the right guy to win, or are we not?   
This for me is one of those you cant have it both ways things.  If the guy that helps us win in 20 or 21 is there now, how does that change in 20 or 21 if all that is still here?  The only ones slated to be gone by then are the ones we dont want to lose. 

we committed $106m to upton last year.  next question.  

[Second Base]

Again, there's a first time for everything, but Billy Eppler has never once signed a free agent with draft pick compensation during the new collective bargaining agreement, or since he took over as the Angels GM.  Not a single time.  

Part of this was because he was focused on building a sustainable winner, but also the other part is that it's simply too much to pay.  

Would you trade Griffin Canning for Grandal straight up after he signs his new contract?  I wouldn't.  The Angels need pitching and he's the best of the bunch. 

I highly doubt Billy Eppler is willing to give up his second round pick and international money.  He said it himself, he wants to build a strong farm system that's consistently in the top 10 and then build around the core.  The Angels aren't there yet and won't be there if they trade major pieces or give up money and picks. 

It's been a constant theme of this offseason.  Patience. 

The Angels aren't going all out in 2019 and sacrificing 2020 and beyond.  They're going to build a consistent winner in 2020 and beyond.  

[Angelsjunky]

Pretty much what Doc and Stradling said. Machado in particular really helps this team, but they simply can't afford him. You could argue that we can blame the Upton contract for that, as Machado would be a better fit over the next half decade or more than Upton.

The Angels have $80M tied up in three players in 2019 (Trout, Pujols, Upton), and $84M for the same three in 2020. Assuming they extend Trout and Simmons, those three jump to four and maybe $110M for a year in 2021. Then Pujols is off the books in 2022, but they still owe $90M to Upton, Trout, and Simmons. Then you have to start thinking about an Ohtani extension before he hits free agency in 2024, possibly starting 2023 when Upton comes off the books.

The point being, the Angels have $80-110M probably/potentially tied up in 3-4 players for the next five years and more. Adding in Harper or Machado at $30M just won't happen - unless Pujols graciously retires (not going to happen) and/or they can unload Upton (unlikely).

 

[Dtwncbad]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Would you rather have Arenado at 3rd after next year or Machado?

Machado is a year younger and he is actually available now.  So Machado.

Nothing wrong with Arenado but what if you pass on Machado and Arwnado signs an extension?

[Tyler]

Machado won't cost a draft pick either, just money. Money that he will make up for bringing in more fans to the stadium. 

[Docwaukee]

 There's diminishing returns on the marque player phenomena.  Especially when you already have Trout.  

[totdprods]

Not against a Machado add if there's budget, but that scenario seems increasingly unlikely. 

There's such a huge glut of infielders still on the market with so little movement, the Angels might find a deal come late January, so we shouldn't rule out a move that bumps Fletcher to AAA to start the season. I'd now like to see Grandal with Moustakas or Lowrie, personally. Would make for a very legitimate, balanced line-up, with a ton of versatility defensively and multiple variations for batting order.

And there are so many bounceback RP options out there, I'd be fine just seeing if Eppler can replicate the Norris and Petit minor-league signings.