Angels sign Trevor Cahill

[T.G.]

Let's not make a mountain out of a Cahill....

I approve  of this move.

 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Hmm, not sure what to make of this one.  Over the last 2 years hes put up nice numbers, when hes put up numbers but certainly brings along poor durability and a lack of innings eating, seems counter the Eppler plan in that sense but definitely could have huge upside if he can actually stay on the mound.  AS noted by many feels like another overpay but at least its short term.

As noted by @mulwin444 it seems clear these are stop gap deals designed to let the players re-establish themselves and bridge the gap to our younger arms.   

Assuming we had about 24M left we now have about 15M left for a catcher which should fit in line with Grandal if we decide to go that direction and possibly a little wiggle room for a possible Tulo or something?  Not that i like that idea it just, fits.  Heck i almost wonder if they are even done pitching wise.  WE needed 2, we got one and a half.   wonder if they might still go after a Kukichi perhaps? 

Im still very disturbed that we seem completely uncommitted to the future aside from waiting on the kids but that appears to be the road were taking.   Right now they are setting themselves up for either life with Trout, or trading him, i find this not very comforting.

I've always liked Cahill, seemed more talented than his results. He is basically Lance Lynn for 1/3 of the commitment.

They must feel Canning is going to be ready by August.

You forgot Bour at 2.5. So 9+11+2.5 = 22.5 -30 = 7.5+4.3 (Shoemaker) +3.1 (Parker), so ok 15 or 16M.

Tulo will not cost anything. Like if they sign him, he's costs the same as any of the under club control guys, probably a few thousand less. He'll cost less than Justin Anderson. He makes $19M next year, of that 18.445 Million is paid by the Blue Jays, and 555k is paid by the Angels or the club that signs him.

 

 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, True Grich said:

Let's not make a mountain out of a Cahill....

I approve  of this move.

 

what if he doesn't amount to a Cahill of beans?  

[Second Base]

There are a lot of outcomes here.  Harvey's rediscovered velocity and Doug White's work with pitchers could result in him being an ace again, which could not only help propel the Angels into the playoffs, but it could result in a competitive balance round pick, which would be nice to have.  And with Cahill, he's a high GB% pitcher that misses bats pitching in front of the likes of Simmons, Fletcher and Cozart.  He could end up having a career year.  It wouldn't lead to any draft pick compensation or anything, but it would be nice for 2019. 

And if it doesn't work out, Harvey is either injured or throwing to the tune of a 5.00 ERA and Cahill is injured.  Meaning they can't be flipped at the deadline, they're gone next year, and the 2019 staff is stuck in the same position as 2018, and 2017....and 2016......and 2015.....

Boy, you'd think they really would've solved that one problem by now. 

But just to piss off that prick Pritchett, I'll say they both end up going 150 innings with a 3.50 ERA. 

[Angelsjunky]

I'd much rather have one year of Cahill at $9M than five years of Keuchel for $90M.

The Angels rotation isn't sexy, but its deep with solid starters with some upside:

Heaney, Skaggs, Harvey, Cahill, Barria, Tropeano, F Pena, Peters, Cole, Smith, Canning, Suarez, Ramirez. That's 13 guys who could contribute in 2019, 15 if you count Sandoval and L Pena.

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

I can see us signing Shelby Miller as well. Throws hard, is coming off a big injury but the velo was there when he returned late last season. I see Miller as a low cost buy for Eppler. 

Or our good friend and former Halo, Ervin Santana. Who we should never have let leave. F'in Dipoto.

[Angelsjunky]

@Second Base, Harvey's issue isn't as much velocity as it is spin rate. See Jeff Sullivan's piece on Fangraphs.

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

There's no reason to go with a 6-man now that Ohtani is out of the rotation for 2019. That move was made just to accommodate Ohtani's rotation schedule while in Japan. 

Except to get everyone ready for 2020?

[Angelsfan1984]

Heres to hoping they can both go between 125-150 innings and give ERA's under 4. 

 

[wopphil]

9 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Absolutely, but also think I’d prefer simply signing Grandal and keeping Barria. 

Agree 100%. Is the difference between Realmuto and Grandal so substantial that it warrants losing Barria? I dont think so.

I have no objection to moving Barria, I even started a thread about it several weeks ago. But I'd prefer it to be as part of a package to get a Kluber than a Realmuto.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, wopphil said:

Agree 100%. Is the difference between Realmuto and Grandal so substantial that it warrants losing Barria? I dont think so.

I have no objection to moving Barria, I even started a thread about it several weeks ago. But I'd prefer it to be as part of a package to get a Kluber than a Realmuto.

I’m also not the biggest Realmuto fan, at least for the 2019 Angels. Too risky to give up that amount of resources for two years of the riskiest on-field position that isn’t a pitcher, even if he is the best.

If the Angels were in the Astros or Braves position, yes, definitely the way to go. 

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, wopphil said:

Agree 100%. Is the difference between Realmuto and Grandal so substantial that it warrants losing Barria? I dont think so.

I have no objection to moving Barria, I even started a thread about it several weeks ago. But I'd prefer it to be as part of a package to get a Kluber than a Realmuto.

If it took Barria, Marsh, and J. Jones/Thaiss plus a few lower level guys...it might be worth it. Because Grandal costs more money and a 2nd round pick.

So you'd give up Barria and the prospects, but you'd keep your 2nd round top 50 pick this year, which should bring a Marsh or Jones,  and you can use the 12M savings (Realmuto is likely to cost 15-16M in Arbitration, whereas Grandal will cost 12-13M per minimum) over the next two years to sign a quality reliever.

[Angelsjunky]

If the Marlins would take Barria as the centerpiece for Realmuto, absolutely. Barria is a #4 starter while Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball. But they won't. They'll either need one of Adell/Canning or a bucketload of other prospects. Plus Barria. Something like Barria, Marsh, Jones, Saurez. That might get it done.

[floplag]

6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I've always liked Cahill, seemed more talented than his results. He is basically Lance Lynn for 1/3 of the commitment.

They must feel Canning is going to be ready by August.

You forgot Bour at 2.5. So 9+11+2.5 = 22.5 -30 = 7.5+4.3 (Shoemaker) +3.1 (Parker), so ok 15 or 16M.

Tulo will not cost anything. Like if they sign him, he's costs the same as any of the under club control guys, probably a few thousand less. He'll cost less than Justin Anderson. He makes $19M next year, of that 18.445 Million is paid by the Blue Jays, and 555k is paid by the Angels or the club that signs him.

 

 

I thought the 24M left number was post Bour, perhaps i was mistaken.   

Tulo wouldnt cost, perhaps the interest, though i dont see a real contribution unbless he finds a fountain of youth either. 

I dont think they are done looking at pitching and will still pursue Kukichi and a catcher is still most certainly of need. 

Wishful thinking perhaps but a more impactful signing could still be hiding in the weeds though i doubt it. 

[Hubs]

9 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Except to get everyone ready for 2020?

A six man rotation also makes a lot of sense, seeing as it gives extra rest. 5 guys getting 27 starts =120 starts, with the 6th guy getting 20 starts = a good rotation.

[Second Base]

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

@Second Base, Harvey's issue isn't as much velocity as it is spin rate. See Jeff Sullivan's piece on Fangraphs.

There's no denying the drop in spin rate, but I think that drop was largely the result of three different surgeries, all three of which result in the numbing of the fingers.  TJ surgery survivors often recover their velocity in 10-14 months, no problem, but it's the "feel" for pitching that doesn't come back until 14-18 months.  That "feel" is having the same nervous senses in the fingers and understanding how to manipulate it. 

And just as he recovers from that, he experienced more numbness in the fingers, while resulted in TO surgery, which shares a similar recovery timeline as TJ surgery.  He never got the feeling back fully, and then had lat surgery, which completely robbed him of velocity.  He had to build that back up, but even with the velo spike, he still wasn't the same pitcher he was before, and that's because of spin rate, and that's because he's still working on getting the "feel" back for pitching.  

Harvey is now separated enough from the surgeries that he'll have regained the senses back in his fingers that he originally had, and maintain a higher velocity around 95.  Even after struggling through 92 mph fastballs in the beginning of the year, he still ended the year averaging 94.  In September, he was pumping 96.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Harvey keep that velocity and climb in spin rate, generate more weak contact and have a good enough year that he can sign for something more a year from now. 

[Angelsfan1984]

Grandal/Cody Allen would be ideal pickups. If they could move cozart and scoop up Moustakas for 3b on top of that i'd be very happy. 

 

[floplag]

10 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Except to get everyone ready for 2020?

Considering how injuries have become such a part of the pitching landscape and specialization mush more prevalent, i would be 100% fine with a 6 man plan again.    The days of a lot of 200 innings eaters seem to be in the past in the current mlb landscape.  Let them pitch less, stay stronger, less injury potential, its a win win if you can get that deep.   Then again ive always devalued SP to a certain degree in preference to a stronger bullpen so im probably in the minority on this one
 

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

There's no denying the drop in spin rate, but I think that drop was largely the result of three different surgeries, all three of which result in the numbing of the fingers.  TJ surgery survivors often recover their velocity in 10-14 months, no problem, but it's the "feel" for pitching that doesn't come back until 14-18 months.  That "feel" is having the same nervous senses in the fingers and understanding how to manipulate it.  

And just as he recovers from that, he experienced more numbness in the fingers, while resulted in TO surgery, which shares a similar recovery timeline as TJ surgery.  He never got the feeling back fully, and then had lat surgery, which completely robbed him of velocity.  He had to build that back up, but even with the velo spike, he still wasn't the same pitcher he was before, and that's because of spin rate, and that's because he's still working on getting the "feel" back for pitching.  

Harvey is now separated enough from the surgeries that he'll have regained the senses back in his fingers that he originally had, and maintain a higher velocity around 95.  Even after struggling through 92 mph fastballs in the beginning of the year, he still ended the year averaging 94.  In September, he was pumping 96.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Harvey keep that velocity and climb in spin rate, generate more weak contact and have a good enough year that he can sign for something more a year from now. 

Which is why no one should count on JC Ramirez until late August minimum. Or ST of 2020.

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

There's no denying the drop in spin rate, but I think that drop was largely the result of three different surgeries, all three of which result in the numbing of the fingers.  TJ surgery survivors often recover their velocity in 10-14 months, no problem, but it's the "feel" for pitching that doesn't come back until 14-18 months.  That "feel" is having the same nervous senses in the fingers and understanding how to manipulate it. 

And just as he recovers from that, he experienced more numbness in the fingers, while resulted in TO surgery, which shares a similar recovery timeline as TJ surgery.  He never got the feeling back fully, and then had lat surgery, which completely robbed him of velocity.  He had to build that back up, but even with the velo spike, he still wasn't the same pitcher he was before, and that's because of spin rate, and that's because he's still working on getting the "feel" back for pitching.  

Harvey is now separated enough from the surgeries that he'll have regained the senses back in his fingers that he originally had, and maintain a higher velocity around 95.  Even after struggling through 92 mph fastballs in the beginning of the year, he still ended the year averaging 94.  In September, he was pumping 96.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Harvey keep that velocity and climb in spin rate, generate more weak contact and have a good enough year that he can sign for something more a year from now. 

That's the good scenario. Probably equally or more likely is that he is now who he is (spin rates have dropped for a few years now) and won't get better, but still be a decent #4 and a fun guy to watch. On occasion.

[Hubs]

2 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Grandal/Cody Allen would be ideal pickups. If they could move cozart and scoop up Moustakas for 3b on top of that i'd be very happy. 

 

Cozart will have a better 2019 slash than Moustakas. He won't have as many HR, but

BR has Moustakas at .253 / .311 / .469 with 27 2b and 28 HR.

They have Cozart at .251 /.325 / .431 for a .756 slash. 18 2B and 12 HR in 200 less AB's. (377 to 577).

I think the AB's is about right actually, as I see he, Ward, and Fletcher basically splitting the starts at 2nd and 3rd. I don't see LaStella getting a lot of playing time after the first two months.

 

[Hubs]

9 minutes ago, floplag said:

Considering how injuries have become such a part of the pitching landscape and specialization mush more prevalent, i would be 100% fine with a 6 man plan again.    The days of a lot of 200 innings eaters seem to be in the past in the current mlb landscape.  Let them pitch less, stay stronger, less injury potential, its a win win if you can get that deep.   Then again ive always devalued SP to a certain degree in preference to a stronger bullpen so im probably in the minority on this one
 

I'd rather have a 6 man rotation where they pitch 24-30 starts each and pitch 6+ IP. Basically I want to see them get through the lineup 3 times. One of the Angels big problems last year was a lack of depth from the rotation. Our starters only went 800 IP or so for the entire year, which is less than 5 innings per start. The Astros went over 1000 innings from their starters. Which is over 6 inning average.

 

 

[Second Base]

9 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Which is why no one should count on JC Ramirez until late August minimum. Or ST of 2020.

Agreed completely.  In fact, I wouldn't even have him return to the rotation, he'd go straight to the bullpen. If he pitches well, he returns for 2020, if not, we cut him and try to sign him to a minor league contract. 

[Hubs]

Just now, Second Base said:

Agreed completely.  In fact, I wouldn't even have him return to the rotation, he'd go straight to the bullpen. If he pitches well, he returns for 2020, if not, we cut him and try to sign him to a minor league contract. 

Which is why I'm surprised they tendered him over Parker.

[Second Base]

Just now, Hubs said:

Which is why I'm surprised they tendered him over Parker.

Trending in different directions before Ramirez's surgery.  But I have to imagine, Eppler probably has a little more insight on Ramirez's recovery than we do.  He might be healing exceptionally fast or well.