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Justin Bour's deal looks pretty good


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Bour makes 2.5 million from the Angels, Matt Adams get 3 million from the Nats, C.J. Cron gets 5.2 million from the Twins.  Bour's career OBP is .344 and hits LH.  Matt Adams is also a lefty, and has a career .314 OBP.  CJ Cron is a RHB and has a career .311 OBP. 

All have pretty similar skill sets. 

It's a slow day/week/month at AngelsWin. 

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I'm not convinced Bour is a part timer.  I think he's more of a "just in case".  The Angels won't know until late January when Ohtani will be back, but they're operating with relative certainty that he won't be back before May.  That means Bour has all of Spring Training, plus the first month of the season to prove he's better than Pujols at this stage of their careers.  Or more accurately, Pujols has all of Spring Training and all of April to prove he's healthy enough to play 1B, and so much better than the LH alternative that is great at reaching base. 

I think the endgame for Pujosl has been fast-forwarded.  This year, he'll be relegated to part time duty and in 2020, he'll be a full time bench player and will use that as his farewell tour.  But the days of Albert Pujols being the Angels starting 1B on a regular basis are gone in my opinion.  Because if it isn't Bour, it's Thaiss, and if it isn't Thaiss, it's Walsh, and if it isn't Walsh, then it's Brandon Marsh forcing Upton over to 1B.....

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42 minutes ago, Stradling said:

My guess is we aren’t going to see a bargain on the pitching side like this 

I tend to agree with you, Strad. Any and all monies, outside of a Trout extension, are going to pitching, at this point. We are going with an infield combo of Fletcher, Cozart, Simmons, LaStella, Bour, Albert. Calhoun remains in right.

Who is our fourth OFer? Not Hermosillo again? Will we spend money there? I doubt it.

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6 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

I tend to agree with you, Strad. Any and all monies, outside of a Trout extension, are going to pitching, at this point. We are going with an infield combo of Fletcher, Cozart, Simmons, LaStella, Bour, Albert. Calhoun remains in right.

Who is our fourth OFer? Not Hermosillo again? Will we spend money there? I doubt it.

Peter Bourjos 

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I like the Bour signing but there are some warning signs in his deeper statistical outlook: declining trends in exit velocity (91.6 to 89.2, 88.7 last three years) and hard hit % (46.7, 40.6, 38.7), and rising K% (17.4, 22.1, 24.8). Ideally he'll return to 2016-17 form (.280/.359/.512, 128 wRC+), but something like .250/.350/.450, 115 wRC+ might be more realistic - and still better than Pujols.

Let's assume 1300 PA between 1B and DH. That means Ohtani, Bour, and Pujols will average around 400 PA a piece (assuming 100 PA for miscellaneous players - DH resting days for Upton, Trout, etc).

How that shakes out really depends on a lot of factors: 

1) When will Ohtani be ready?

2) Will Ohtani hit LHP?

3) Will Pujols be in tbsohl?

4) Are Bour's decline trends real or just noise?

5) Will Ausmus bring a pair to work with him and play the best player?

 

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@Angelsjunky when projecting Bour have you considered his right thumb positioning as it relates to the rotation of the earth at night or during the day?  And have you factored in the rate of oxygen intake through each nostril (OITEN) when he uses an upper cut swing instead of swinging down on the ball?  These are important points to consider in your analysis.

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17 minutes ago, True Grich said:

@Angelsjunky when projecting Bour have you considered his right thumb positioning as it relates to the rotation of the earth at night or during the day?  And have you factored in the rate of oxygen intake through each nostril (OITEN) when he uses an upper cut swing instead of swinging down on the ball?  These are important points to consider in your analysis.

Funny, but...things like exit velocity and K rates do actually matter in assessing a player. 

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Just now, Angelsjunky said:

Funny, but...things like exit velocity and K rates do actually matter in assessing a player. 

I'm sure they do.  I wasn't doubting that at all.  But so are breathing and not having your thumb up your... when batting.  Just saying. 

I was just trying to inject a "little" humor into the topic. 

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2 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

I've been wanting us to get Justin Bour for two years now, so I'm really pleased with this signing. 

Once Ohtani is back, this could force Pujols into the weaker side of a platoon role at 1B as well. 

PLEEEEASE let this be for 2019, and then he agrees to retire after 2019 and gets paid the remaining $59 million over the 10 years personal services contract period. 

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1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Large human being, doesn't hit many cheap HR's, oppo power and a solid B grade bat flipper. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Btbvh-PFxhg

Funny... most of them were hit with men on base.  He's going to have to get used to hitting solo shots for the Angels.

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9 minutes ago, True Grich said:

Funny... most of them were hit with men on base.  He's going to have to get used to hitting solo shots for the Angels.

I dunno, I mean he'll probably be hitting directly behind Trout, Ohtani and Upton.  All three of those guys are pretty good at getting on base.  Or perhaps they'll put Simmons in front of him. 

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