The Eppler Plan Revised

[GrittyVeterans]

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

Two torn ACLs for a catcher going into his thirties is a bit risky, especially for a team whose catcher depth is pretty thin.

Still think 2019 will ultimately be a transition year, leaning on the youth. Let the kids play and see who sinks and swims and readjust next season. We'll still contend.

If you have a very loose definition of “contend”, then sure

[ettin]

So I will repeat that you can sign someone like Machado or Harper with opt-outs. In fact I sincerely believe both of them will require opt-outs. If you can get Machado on a 10-year, $400M deal with opt-outs after years 1, 2, or 3 (or all three of them), the player will likely benefit by re-entering the market and making more money and the team reduces the risk of having that player the entire contract.

Is this the right thing for the Angels to do considering that the pitching market is shrinking on them hourly? Not sure to be honest. Unless the Angels have something up their sleeve in trade, I am beginning to agree with @Dochalo that we shouldn't chase a good off-season when it starts to turn bad on us. That is when you make Vernon Wells mistakes.

We still have time. Adding Machado with opt-outs fills 3B with a high quality player who will continue to play well because his next contract will count on his performance. That is about 5 wins by adding him alone. Trade for a starter like Gray, Ray, or Urena for example and you have a competitive rotation. Is it elite? No but it is above average. See where that takes you without breaking the bank prospect-wise.

[Stradling]

I will still go on record and say neither of those guys get $400 million.  

[T.G.]

Eppler plan revised..

He'll ride this wave just fine in the end...

 

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, ettin said:

So I will repeat that you can sign someone like Machado or Harper with opt-outs. In fact I sincerely believe both of them will require opt-outs. If you can get Machado on a 10-year, $400M deal with opt-outs after years 1, 2, or 3 (or all three of them), the player will likely benefit by re-entering the market and making more money and the team reduces the risk of having that player the entire contract.

Is this the right thing for the Angels to do considering that the pitching market is shrinking on them hourly? Not sure to be honest. Unless the Angels have something up their sleeve in trade, I am beginning to agree with @Dochalo that we shouldn't chase a good off-season when it starts to turn bad on us. That is when you make Vernon Wells mistakes.

We still have time. Adding Machado with opt-outs fills 3B with a high quality player who will continue to play well because his next contract will count on his performance. That is about 5 wins by adding him alone. Trade for a starter like Gray, Ray, or Urena for example and you have a competitive rotation. Is it elite? No but it is above average. See where that takes you without breaking the bank prospect-wise.

And I think there's some value in looking at Skaggs and Heaney, and to a lesser degree, Fletcher, Ward, Rengifo, Thaiss, Hermosillo, and giving them opportunity to prove themselves this season. 

If Skaggs can't put up a season consistent with that of his #2 ceiling the year before FA, is it worth holding onto him?
Is it worth going into every season with stopgap infielders before finally ceding playing time for the rookies in July/August, or should we give them a shot and then have a clearer idea next offseason of where we need to sign FAs?

[Angelsjunky]

27 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

who's gonna pitch?  If you extend even one of Simmons or Realmuto plus Trout, plus Machado, you essentially burnt any sort of financial flexibility for a 4-5yr period.  

You are essentially leaving yourself zero room for error for guys like Barria, Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Pena, Canning, Buttrey, Middleton, Anderson, Rengifo, Adell, Upton.  

Maybe the Angels can unload Upton. Right now they have three big AAVs: Trout $34M through 2020, Pujols $29M through 2021, Upton $22.5M through 2022. Realmuto and Simmons will both be relatively affordable for another two years. Assuming Trout gets  extended and Machado gets ~$30M, that means that you have the following big contracts by year:

2019: Trout $34M, Pujols $28M, Upton $18M, Machado $30M - or 4 players, $110M

2020: Trout $34M, Pujols $29M, Upton $21M, Machado $30M - 4 players, $114M

2021: Trout $40M, Pujols $30M, Upton $23M, Machado $30M, Simmons $20M, Realmuto $20M - 6 players, $163M (Skaggs free agent)

2022: Trout $40M, Upton $28M, Machado $30M, Simmons $20M, Realmuto $20M - 5 players, $138M

2023: Trout $40M, Machado $30M, Simmons $20M, Realmuto $20M - 4 players, $110M

Ohtani is due to hit free agency in 2024. So you have two years--2021-22--in which this option gets really, really expensive. Maybe that is partially ameliorated by trading Upton in 2020-21, when he still has some value. Or maybe Arte just bites the bullet and hopes for the best. 

5 minutes ago, ettin said:

So I will repeat that you can sign someone like Machado or Harper with opt-outs. In fact I sincerely believe both of them will require opt-outs. If you can get Machado on a 10-year, $400M deal with opt-outs after years 1, 2, or 3 (or all three of them), the player will likely benefit by re-entering the market and making more money and the team reduces the risk of having that player the entire contract.

Is this the right thing for the Angels to do considering that the pitching market is shrinking on them hourly? Not sure to be honest. Unless the Angels have something up their sleeve in trade, I am beginning to agree with @Dochalo that we shouldn't chase a good off-season when it starts to turn bad on us. That is when you make Vernon Wells mistakes.

We still have time. Adding Machado with opt-outs fills 3B with a high quality player who will continue to play well because his next contract will count on his performance. That is about 5 wins by adding him alone. Trade for a starter like Gray, Ray, or Urena for example and you have a competitive rotation. Is it elite? No but it is above average. See where that takes you without breaking the bank prospect-wise.

Machado won't require or get 10/$400M. I was maxing out on 10/$350M, but now think that is more than he'll get - maybe 10/$300M.

I agree that we shouldn't "chase a good off-season," but why Realmuto and Machado are so tempting is that they--unlike Wells--are both young and fill dire organization needs.

But either one is unlikely, and both are very unlikely. But I think both would greatly improve the team, on the order of +6-8 wins over what we'll have otherwise, and both are solid to good long-term investments.

[ettin]

17 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I will still go on record and say neither of those guys get $400 million.  

And I will still go on record saying they will. Opt-outs would probably reduce the total money they get paid by about 10% but they will still get paid well.

[ettin]

13 minutes ago, totdprods said:

And I think there's some value in looking at Skaggs and Heaney, and to a lesser degree, Fletcher, Ward, Rengifo, Thaiss, Hermosillo, and giving them opportunity to prove themselves this season. 

If Skaggs can't put up a season consistent with that of his #2 ceiling the year before FA, is it worth holding onto him?
Is it worth going into every season with stopgap infielders before finally ceding playing time for the rookies in July/August, or should we give them a shot and then have a clearer idea next offseason of where we need to sign FAs?

Agreed that all of this is potentially possible.

Personally I am not as down on Skaggs as many here seem to be. I actually think extending him is a smart move at the right price. Same with Heaney.

There is a reasonably good case to be made that Fletcher is the rough equivalent of Cozart right now. However the Angels made a payroll commitment to Zack and he was injured last season so keeping him in the fold one more season makes sense in terms of his surplus value and providing depth to the team at every position around the diamond (particularly since he is the best backup for Simmons).

Certainly Ward, Rengifo, and Hermosillo can compete for spots but will their production improve and maintain itself throughout the season?

All big questions.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Its funny. Were all desperate for something to happen. Anything. Its been years since we added a real player (upton i guess, but the shine wasnt the same because we had already traded for him).

Machado is one of the best players in the game. He would be the first 3B weve had since figgins, Glaus for those who demand power from 3B.

Hes still young in his prime. Would solve a need for years and years to come.

Put it all together....and no one will really be pumped for it. Haha.

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Maybe the Angels can unload Upton. Right now they have three big AAVs: Trout $34M through 2020, Pujols $29M through 2021, Upton $22.5M through 2022. Realmuto and Simmons will both be relatively affordable for another two years. Assuming Trout gets  extended and Machado gets ~$30M, that means that you have the following big contracts by year:

2019: Trout $34M, Pujols $28M, Upton $18M, Machado $30M - or 4 players, $110M

2020: Trout $34M, Pujols $29M, Upton $21M, Machado $30M - 4 players, $114M

2021: Trout $40M, Pujols $30M, Upton $23M, Machado $30M, Simmons $20M, Realmuto $20M - 6 players, $163M (Skaggs free agent)

2022: Trout $40M, Upton $28M, Machado $30M, Simmons $20M, Realmuto $20M - 5 players, $138M

2023: Trout $40M, Machado $30M, Simmons $20M, Realmuto $20M - 4 players, $110M

Ohtani is due to hit free agency in 2024. So you have two years--2021-22--in which this option gets really, really expensive. Maybe that is partially ameliorated by trading Upton in 2020-21, when he still has some value. Or maybe Arte just bites the bullet and hopes for the best. 

Machado won't require or get 10/$400M. I was maxing out on 10/$350M, but now think that is more than he'll get - maybe 10/$300M.

I agree that we shouldn't "chase a good off-season," but why Realmuto and Machado are so tempting is that they--unlike Wells--are both young and fill dire organization needs.

But either one is unlikely, and both are very unlikely. But I think both would greatly improve the team, on the order of +6-8 wins over what we'll have otherwise, and both are solid to good long-term investments.

what about the 36m going to Simmons, Cozart and Calhoun for 2019?  That's $146m for 7 players.  Add Realmuto and it's 152m

or the 28m going to Simmons and Cozart in 2020?  Add Realmuto and it's 38m for a total of 152 for seven players.  

I still don't know who's going to pitch starting on 2021 when we've got 163m going to six guys or we keep only one of Realmuto or Simmons and have $143m for five guys.  Heaney is also gone after 2021.  Ohtani is going to cost a fair amount in arb unless you extend him but how can you?  

Who's gonna want a 32/33 yo upton owed either 72m or 51m over 3 or 2 years?  Who's gonna play LF now that we traded Marsh?  

I'm not trying to be dickish, but I look at the money dedicated to very few players and think about all the other holes to fill.  

BTW, if you extend Realmuto at like 5/100 or even 4/80, you are getting his age 30-34 seasons in hopes that he catches everyday so he maintains that positional value.  

I see tremendous financial risk in this scenario.  

[Angelsjunky]

I too think about all the other holes to fill.

Oh, wait. Wrong forum.

But serious, I hear you. I don't even necessarily agree with this hypothetical Eppler plan, but it is a fun idea to play with. If nothing else, it shows how the team could get really good, really fast - if they're willing to spend. But there are also huge risks, as you point out.

Chances are he'll play it conservative this offseason and hope to build a perennial contender, mostly from within, for 2020 and beyond. 

[Angel Oracle]

40 minutes ago, True Grich said:

Eppler plan revised..

He'll ride this wave just fine in the end...

 

He's got to be loving these waves coming in this week.   Reports of 50 foot waves up north?   WTF?

[Angel Oracle]

I have touched some on trading Upton by July 2020, assuming 1B (?) and OF spots (Adell and Marsh) are filled, and paying 1/3 of his salary only.   Someone may still want him by then for a total of $33 million over 2 1/3 seasons. 

That frees up $33 million total from then through 2022.