Phillies sign Cutch, 3yr, 50 mil

[WeatherWonk]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25510339/phillies-outfielder-andrew-mccutchen-agree-deal

[WeatherWonk]

Is this part of the stoopid money they were referring to?

[Lou]

MLBTR predicted 3/45 (Cubs), so they were pretty damn close. 

[Angelsjunky]

Fangraphs crowdsourcing had 3/$42M, and Kiley McDaniel 2/$26M.

It is hard for me to fathom paying a 32-year old former star 3/$50M. Consider his fWAR the past four years:

6.0, 1.1, 3.7, 2.6. 

His last star-caliber year was 2015. I suppose they're banking on the hope that he produces around 3 WAR and is at least an above average regular.

[WeatherWonk]

Another potential leadoff hitter in front of Trout goes by the boards. I thought he would have been a good fit. An alternative to Calhoun if he struggles again and he could replace him in 2020.

.279

.363

.486

.849

 with 28 HRs in 2017 is a very good year, and not that far removed.

But we couldnt  afford him if we truly only have 30 mil to play with.

He moves to a pretty hitter-friendly park for half his games.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

Another potential leadoff hitter in front of Trout goes by the boards. I thought he would have been a good fit. An alternative to Calhoun if he struggles again and he could replace him in 2020.

.279

.363

.486

.849

 with 28 HRs in 2017 is a very good year, and not that far removed.

But we couldnt  afford him if we truly only have 30 mil to play with.

He moves to a pretty hitter-friendly park for half his games.

He also got three years and we have Adell that could be ready as early as mid season.  

[WeatherWonk]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He also got three years and we have Adell that could be ready as early as mid season.  

Yeah, yeah, yeah............I'll believe it when I see it. If he's here at mid season, the most likely reason is because Calhoun has tanked again.

He struggled at AA, including in the field.  Yeah, he's young.

Figure 3/4 of next season at AA and then IF he is doing well, he moves up to AAA. Even if he gets a Sept call-up, unless he is the second coming of, well, Andrew McCutcheon, he will start 2020 at AAA. The earliest he might REALISTICALLY be up here to stay, assuming he is as great as everyone is saying, would be mid 2020. Then comes the adjustments to big league pitching, Figure that period through to mid 2021 IF he is for real. That's basically when a 3 year contract for Cutch would be ending.

In the meantime, tick...........tick..............tick. Mikey wants to win. Mikey wants guys in front of him on base, so he gets better pitches and can drive in runs. Mikey doesnt care about boatloads of money. He has that, and will get that, wherever.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, WeatherWonk said:

Yeah, yeah, yeah............I'll believe it when I see it. If he's here at mid season, the most likely reason is because Calhoun has tanked again.

He struggled at AA, including in the field.  Yeah, he's young.

Figure 3/4 of next season at AA and then IF he is doing well, he moves up to AAA. Even if he gets a Sept call-up, unless he is the second coming of, well, Andrew McCutcheon, he will start 2020 at AAA. The earliest he might REALISTICALLY be up here to stay, assuming he is as great as everyone is saying, would be mid 2020. Then comes the adjustments to big league pitching, Figure that period through to mid 2021 IF he is for real. That's basically when a 3 year contract for Cutch would be ending.

In the meantime, tick...........tick..............tick. Mikey wants to win. Mikey wants guys in front of him on base, so he gets better pitches and can drive in runs. Mikey doesnt care about boatloads of money. He has that, and will get that, wherever.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, it doesn’t matter if he is up at midseason or not, what matters is he will be here before the three year contract is up.  Also $50 million.  

[Angel Oracle]

14 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yeah, yeah, yeah, it doesn’t matter if he is up at midseason or not, what matters is he will be here before the three year contract is up.  Also $50 million.  

Money that with Adell in mind is better spent on a starting pitcher and catcher. 

[WeatherWonk]

Yer such a fackin HOMER sapien.

Get REAL, Strad. We've had three straight losing seasons. Mikey doesn't like it. Smoke and mirrors ain't workin!!! Wishin' and hopin' for an improbable timetable in one player is not enough.

We were 20th in OBP last year. That needs to change. Trout hit 39HR, 24 doubles and 4 triples, hit .312 and drove in less than 80 runs. THAT RIDICULOUS!!!!

 

[Stradling]

3 years $50 million for a 32 year old that has averaged 1.5 WAR the last three seasons.  Or to put it another way, a guy that over the last three years is about 1/2 game worse per year than the guy we would be getting rid of.  Yes he has a much better OBP, but he is pretty bad defensively and costs about $17 million a year for three years.  If he was on the Angels right now and had that remaining on his contract we would be looking to move that contract. 

[nate]

23 minutes ago, Stradling said:

3 years $50 million for a 32 year old that has averaged 1.5 WAR the last three seasons.  Or to put it another way, a guy that over the last three years is about 1/2 game worse per year than the guy we would be getting rid of.  Yes he has a much better OBP, but he is pretty bad defensively and costs about $17 million a year for three years.  If he was on the Angels right now and had that remaining on his contract we would be looking to move that contract. 

To be fair, he will be moving to a corner OF spot which should negate any defensive issues of him being in CF on older legs.

I think it is a good signing for the Phils but it isn't something high on the Angels' list of needs, he isn't a big upgrade on Kole, and btw, he is just as streaky.

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, nate said:

To be fair, he will be moving to a corner OF spot which should negate any defensive issues of him being in CF on older legs.

I think it is a good signing for the Phils but it isn't something high on the Angels' list of needs, he isn't a big upgrade on Kole, and btw, he is just as streaky.

He played exclusively in the corner for SF last year and put up a negative defensive WAR...  Dude has been a bat first player for some time now, the corner may mask his defensive issues but it won't negate them.   Imo this deal is like Santana last season... only the Phil's actually have a need for OFers whereas the Santana signing forced them to play guys out of position and created new problems.

[GrittyVeterans]

I’m not saying we should trade Adell, but some people here are seriously pinning way to much of our future on his shoulders

[Buttercup]

I picture the negotiating going like this

Klentak - “we’ll give you $40 million over three years”

McCutcheon’s agent “even Mike Scioscia got 50 million...”

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, GrittyVeterans said:

I’m not saying we should trade Adell, but some people here are seriously pinning way to much of our future on his shoulders

no one is pinning our future on one player.  not even Trout.  

Our future relies on the entire farm system producing some cheap controllable talent.  If only Adell and no one else works out, we are screwed and Eppler will get fired.  

But you have to try to build your team that way.  The right way.  The only way that actually works.  

All the metrics in the world won't bring you a winner if your farm system doesn't feed the major league team.  

[totdprods]

The 3/$50m Philadelphia is spending goes beyond McCutchen’s production on the field - and further than his clubhouse presence too.

He just fits their needs perfectly. Versatile defensively, a great vet presence in a young lineup, an ideal hitter for that ballpark and division. Even if his slash isn’t what it used to be, the price was worth the fit.

[TroutField]

50 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The 3/$50m Philadelphia is spending goes beyond McCutchen’s production on the field - and further than his clubhouse presence too.

He just fits their needs perfectly. Versatile defensively, a great vet presence in a young lineup, an ideal hitter for that ballpark and division. Even if his slash isn’t what it used to be, the price was worth the fit.

I disagree. 17.5 million per year for 3 years is insane for the player he is. Baseball contracts are way out of control. 3 out of his last 4 seasons have been sub .800 OPS. I love the guy as a person and a player but that is just crazy to me. 

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, TroutField said:

I disagree. 17.5 million per year for 3 years is insane for the player he is. Baseball contracts are way out of control. 3 out of his last 4 seasons have been sub .800 OPS. I love the guy as a person and a player but that is just crazy to me. 

I think 3/$50m on just about any other team is insane, but it fits for Philly. They have the money too. They are probably paying like $12m basically for intangibles and for how well he fits their lineup’s needs.

[nate]

8 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

He played exclusively in the corner for SF last year and put up a negative defensive WAR...  Dude has been a bat first player for some time now, the corner may mask his defensive issues but it won't negate them.   Imo this deal is like Santana last season... only the Phil's actually have a need for OFers whereas the Santana signing forced them to play guys out of position and created new problems.

I didn't realize that.  Surprising for someone that used to be such a good defender.  Or maybe he never was and I just thought he was.

[totdprods]

8 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

He played exclusively in the corner for SF last year and put up a negative defensive WAR...  Dude has been a bat first player for some time now, the corner may mask his defensive issues but it won't negate them.   Imo this deal is like Santana last season... only the Phil's actually have a need for OFers whereas the Santana signing forced them to play guys out of position and created new problems.

FWIW, Torii said he had a tremendously hard time adjusting to the corner after being in CF for so long, and I believe he was fairly poor in RF at first, and then rebounded really well. 
Adam Jones said something similar going into this offseason...he was not comfortable moving to the corners during the season because he did not know how quickly he'd adjust, and he did not want it to hurt his value going into free agency, but was open to it if it allowed him to keep playing. 

So I wouldn't be quick to assume McCutch will stay a poor defender. NL West has some tricky outfields too.

He still brings strong OBP and Philly could use that in their line-up, especially after dealing away Santana. Essentially, McCutchen just replaced that contract.

[Inside Pitch]

12 minutes ago, totdprods said:

FWIW, Torii said he had a tremendously hard time adjusting to the corner after being in CF for so long, and I believe he was fairly poor in RF at first, and then rebounded really well. 
Adam Jones said something similar going into this offseason...he was not comfortable moving to the corners during the season because he did not know how quickly he'd adjust, and he did not want it to hurt his value going into free agency, but was open to it if it allowed him to keep playing. 

So I wouldn't be quick to assume McCutch will stay a poor defender. NL West has some tricky outfields too.

He still brings strong OBP and Philly could use that in their line-up, especially after dealing away Santana. Essentially, McCutchen just replaced that contract.

It's not an assumption.   He's the Jeter of CFers.

For his career he's at Negative 70 DRS in CF....  (dead last from 2013-2018).   Despite his negative dWAR last season he posted his best DRS season since 2013 -- so, based on the info we have available moving to RF had a positive effect overall on his defense.   More importantly, the Phillies defense was so atrocious that a bad  to mediocre defensive OFer may actually be an upgrade.

Cutch has always been a guy that looked the part but wasn't really a great defender, at his best he was passable.  His bat made his shortcomings easier to live with but the metrics have always been bad and if you watched him -- lots of bad jumps and his arm left a lot to be desired.

29 minutes ago, nate said:

I didn't realize that.  Surprising for someone that used to be such a good defender.  Or maybe he never was and I just thought he was.

He's one of those guys that for whatever reasons got a lot more love on defense than he deserved -- fast, black dude...    Not unlike Ben Revere.   I'm not trying to rip on the guy as he was easily one of my favorite NL players, but his defensive reputation was always better than his actual performance.
 

[T.G.]

There goes IP again... breaking things down with facts and sensible arguments. 

[totdprods]

33 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

It's not an assumption.   He's the Jeter of CFers.

For his career he's at Negative 70 DRS in CF....  (dead last from 2013-2018).   Despite his negative dWAR last season he posted his best DRS season since 2013 -- so, based on the info we have available moving to RF had a positive effect overall on his defense.   More importantly, the Phillies defense was so atrocious that a bad  to mediocre defensive OFer may actually be an upgrade.

Cutch has always been a guy that looked the part but wasn't really a great defender, at his best he was passable.  His bat made his shortcomings easier to live with but the metrics have always been bad and if you watched him -- lots of bad jumps and his arm left a lot to be desired.

He's one of those guys that for whatever reasons got a lot more love on defense than he deserved -- fast, black dude...    Not unlike Ben Revere.   I'm not trying to rip on the guy as he was easily one of my favorite NL players, but his defensive reputation was always better than his actual performance.
 

I never realized he was rated that poor defensively - I thought the post was inferring that his defensive stats took a dive when he shifted to corner OF in San Fran...guess they've just always been poor. 

Still, defense wasn't what they were looking for in this case. I think his skill set fits Philly really well.

[GrittyVeterans]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

no one is pinning our future on one player.  not even Trout.  

Our future relies on the entire farm system producing some cheap controllable talent.  If only Adell and no one else works out, we are screwed and Eppler will get fired.  

But you have to try to build your team that way.  The right way.  The only way that actually works.  

All the metrics in the world won't bring you a winner if your farm system doesn't feed the major league team.  

I get all of that and I don't disagree. But this idea that we shouldn't sign good players right now because it might block Adell is silly. He will force his way on to the team like Trout did(okay, maybe not that decisively but you get my point) when he's ready and if he's good enough.

I probably shouldn't have posted this in the McCuthen thread because I wouldn't have given him a 3 year deal either. But my point is, if there is a chance to upgrade and it's the right player on the right contract...you don't worry about blocking a 19 year old down the road