Why not Keuchel?

[Scott34]

Seems to me to be the best value on the market right now. Still a relatively fresh arm (1200 career IP), not projected to get more than 3-5 years, lefty, great defender, Cy Young potential. Keuchel on a 4/80 deal or so would be a really solid pickup IMO. Put him in Angels stadium and the small amount of fly balls he produces turn into even more outs. I think this is a no-brainer. 

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Scott34 said:

Seems to me to be the best value on the market right now. Still a relatively fresh arm (1200 career IP), not projected to get more than 3-5 years, lefty, great defender, Cy Young potential. Keuchel on a 4/80 deal or so would be a really solid pickup IMO. Put him in Angels stadium and the small amount of fly balls he produces turn into even more outs. I think this is a no-brainer. 

He led the league in hits allowed with 211 last year - yes, that is a testament to how many innings he accrued, but two straight seasons prior he dealt regularly with lingering injuries, so he isn't quite the model of health and durability. He isn't a big K guy, he's another lefty, he's likely going to get more money than he should (as with any FA), and his velocity isn't great.

Additionally - the Astros don't seem to be have much interest retaining him. For a team possibly losing Morton this offseason, Verlander and Cole next offseason, and down McCullers already, it's a little strange they wouldn't have interest in someone as 'durable' as Keuchel, even with the prospect depth they have.

I'd be interested in a short-term, higher-dollar pact...3/$60m at most, but anything 4 years or longer or more than $20m AAV is reckless, IMO.
If he was taking the place of say, Skaggs or Heaney in the rotation, with one of them outbound in a deal for frontline SP or a good young bat, I'd be more open to it.

[Second Base]

#DraftPickCompensation

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

#DraftPickCompensation

And that. 

He'd be a great add if we had a healthy, durable Skaggs and at least one other very strong #1-#2 type starter, but we don't, and he doesn't project as filling that role for the life of his next contract.

[UndertheHalo]

Because you’ll pay top dollar for his down trend ?

and the comp pick. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[Hubs]

I don't hate it. His FIP numbers the last three years have been consistent. Even in his bad ERA year. He won the Cy Young in 2015.

Durable.

[Angel Oracle]

Halos defense is not that great at 1B, 2B, 3B, and LF.   Imagine how many hits Keuchel would allow as a Halos pitcher.   No thank you!!!!

[Second Base]

I do like his ground ball tendencies in front of Simmons, Cozart and Fletch though.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

I think I would rather go after Charlie Morton. 2-3 years half the cash.

[Tyler]

Shoulder problems and his team with 'money to spend' doesn't even want him? 

[nate]

He had a good year last year but he has had arm troubles.  Lots of teams seem to be a little cool on him for that reason.

I think he would be a good signing but it all depends on the cost.  He is probably asking for 5+ years and that is too risky.