THIS Winter Meetings

[Dtwncbad]

I attempt to be self-aware, sometimes successfully and sometimes not.

I am acutely aware of how much more on edge I am over this year's winter meetings (well the whole offseasons, but you know what I mean).

It seems so, so critical to make the right decisions this year versus any year I can recently remember.

Does anyone else feel like that, or do I just need to take a xanax?

Do other view this offseason as really elevated in terms of how the organization goes from here?

[jordan]

One thing I feel confident about is that Eppler is not going to let the organization get away from him like Dipoto did.  One off season is not make or break for the Angels.  Eppler will continue to make improvements that will help the short and long term success of the Angels.  The varying degree of success is up for debate.  But I do trust Eppler. 

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, jordan said:

One thing I feel confident about is that Eppler is not going to let the organization get away from him like Dipoto did.  One off season is not make or break for the Angels.  Eppler will continue to make improvements that will help the short and long term success of the Angels.  The varying degree of success is up for debate.  But I do trust Eppler. 

I am just dying to see what he does. . .

Normally I am paying attention with high interest of course but this year feels different.

[jordan]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I am just dying to see what he does. . .

Normally I am paying attention with high interest of course but this year feels different.

I think with Sosh gone after 18 years, things definitely feel a little different for the organization.  Not sure what it means for the off season approach.  Time will tell for sure. 

[ettin]

31 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I attempt to be self-aware, sometimes successfully and sometimes not.

I am acutely aware of how much more on edge I am over this year's winter meetings (well the whole offseasons, but you know what I mean).

It seems so, so critical to make the right decisions this year versus any year I can recently remember.

Does anyone else feel like that, or do I just need to take a xanax?

Do other view this offseason as really elevated in terms of how the organization goes from here?

Recommend taking half of the Xanax.

If we spend a lot of money this off-season the decisions will have more of an impact than they did in the past. If we continue this incremental improvement build it will not be as stressful and you can toss the other half in the trash can.

I trust Billy to aim for the right path. The only thing that can go wrong is if all of our options to improve get shut off for one reason or another. It is not dissimilar to the draft: You come in with a game plan that is flexible with options so that if you do not get your preferred targets you aren't left on the sidelines with nothing to show for it. Same thing here.

[Docwaukee]

the last three seasons we've gone to war with an highly unreliable staff of SP.  We've had high hopes that guys would stay healthy and realize their potential.  In that period, Matt Shoemaker lead the team in innings with 268.2 ip.  That's not a typo.  We don't have one pitcher who's averaged more than 100 ip over the last three years.  

We've been waiting for Skaggs and Heaney who may have turned a corner. 

We finally got a little help from the farm in Barria.  

It has been such a cluster.  We've had two player seasons of 180 ip.  We've had 5 player seasons of 130ip or more.  

If we acquire a couple of solid starters that can pitch 170 innings with an era around 4.00, it will have the largest impact of almost anyone Billy has acquired since taking over.  In 2019, if we have 5 guys (two new starters, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria) pitch more than 130ip, it will equal the number of guys who have be able to do so for this team over the previous 3 seasons total.  

So as long as we get those two starters, it will have been a highly impactful off season even if it doesn't totally feel like it.  In fact, I think we'll win somewhere around 86-88 games because of that if we do nothing else.  Not only that, our depth should keep us from having to use a hodge podge of waiver pickups like last year.   

[Dtwncbad]

7 minutes ago, ettin said:

Recommend taking half of the Xanax.

If we spend a lot of money this off-season the decisions will have more of an impact than they did in the past. If we continue this incremental improvement build it will not be as stressful and you can toss the other half in the trash can.

I trust Billy to aim for the right path. The only thing that can go wrong is if all of our options to improve get shut off for one reason or another. It is not dissimilar to the draft: You come in with a game plan that is flexible with options so that if you do not get your preferred targets you aren't left on the sidelines with nothing to show for it. Same thing here.

I ran out of xanax on the Yelich thread.

[floplag]

I agree, this is very important for us in many ways.  
I think it will set the tone for many important things in the Halos short and near term future.
Long term is easy,  everyone knows it everyone gets it, build the farm to build a group of cost controlled parts you need.  The short term, especially for us right now with the Trout situation looming, isnt quite as simple. 

[Hubs]

I agree with Doc. The starting pitching has been highly injury prone since Heaney went down in his first start in 2016.

I do wonder though if 180 IP is still the benchmark. 5 2/3 average IP per start over 33 starts is 187 IP. 6 innings is 198 IP.

But, I also think that it's possible, however, that the Angels roll with a 6 man rotation in anticipation of Ohtani making his way back to the rotation in 2020.

Then those guys get between 24-30 starts, with 27 being the exact number if they split them equally. Guys like Heaney or one of the experienced FA like Gonzalez might get more, closer tor 30, while guys like Skaggs who always seems to be slightly injured might get closer to 24. Or Pena, who is equally effective out of the pen.

27 starts is 162 IP at 6 IP Avg.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

I see it this way a few different scenarios.

 

1. Stay the course: Trout re-signed and a mid level starter, catcher and a closer. Which is where I think we are leaning organizationally. In Eppy we trust!

2. Crazy: Machado, Kikuchi, Lynn and a catcher. Because Arte opened his 401k. Shows Trout we want to win and hope we re-sign him before next off season or he will be traded.

3. Full blown Nutty: Arte' falls back to the Ghost of Christmas past. Throws the checkbook at Machado, Harper, Ramos, Kikuchi and Herrera. Eppy then swings a couple trades for another Starting pitcher. Shows Trout we want to win and the "Man upstairs" wants to show him the money! Trout then becomes the highest paid player in MLB History 10/500.

Or

4. Scrooged: We trade for a scrub catcher who can play defense. A couple extreme low level starting pitchers like Cahill and Holland looking for rebounds. And more high octane minor leaguer bullpen arms with options. 

 

I want Nutty. But, would love crazy. Think we are going to be somewhere between Stay the Course and Scrooged.

 

Happy Holidays!

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Great thoughts Doc and Hubs.

I agree.

Gonzalez and Lynn in this scenario make sense. And would allow us to package another lefty either Skaggs or Heaney for a catcher.

[jessecrall]

I think you can basically stay the course AND sign Kikuchi considering he's expected to warrant a 5-6 year deal with a reasonable AAV; that could obviously change but if you can get him for 6/$48 or something, you can solidify your future rotation without draining resources trying to win immediately. 

[Hubs]

5 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

I see it this way a few different scenarios.

 

1. Stay the course: Trout re-signed and a mid level starter, catcher and a closer. Which is where I think we are leaning organizationally. In Eppy we trust!

2. Crazy: Machado, Kikuchi, Lynn and a catcher. Because Arte opened his 401k. Shows Trout we want to win and hope we re-sign him before next off season or he will be traded.

3. Full blown Nutty: Arte' falls back to the Ghost of Christmas past. Throws the checkbook at Machado, Harper, Ramos, Kikuchi and Herrera. Eppy then swings a couple trades for another Starting pitcher. Shows Trout we want to win and the "Man upstairs" wants to show him the money! Trout then becomes the highest paid player in MLB History 10/500.

Or

4. Scrooged: We trade for a scrub catcher who can play defense. A couple extreme low level starting pitchers like Cahill and Holland looking for rebounds. And more high octane minor leaguer bullpen arms with options. 

 

I want Nutty. But, would love crazy. Think we are going to be somewhere between Stay the Course and Scrooged.

 

Happy Holidays!

1. They're going to do more than Stay the Course. None of the high level prospects are being counted on to be in Anaheim in 2019, let alone start the season with the big club.

2. Crazy is Machado, I guess? The rest of that seems feasible. Where is the "reasonably good" option?

3. Ok, so I doubt they could afford Machado and Harper AND TROUT. You'd have to trade Cozart and Calhoun to afford both of them...and be willing to rock a 235M payroll. And you forgot trading for Realmuto in this scenario. And Keuchel is more likely in full blown nutty.

4. Scrooged...ok. buzzkill.

 

Here's a reasonably good offseason. Trade for Realmuto (+7) sign Marwin Gonzalez (+12), sign Lance Lynn (+12) or Gio Gonzalez, sign Kikuchi or trade for Sonny Gray (+9). Extend Trout.

 

 

[ettin]

22 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I ran out of xanax on the Yelich thread.

Pharmaceutical depth is important. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

1. They're going to do more than Stay the Course. None of the high level prospects are being counted on to be in Anaheim in 2019, let alone start the season with the big club.

2. Crazy is Machado, I guess? The rest of that seems feasible. Where is the "reasonably good" option?

3. Ok, so I doubt they could afford Machado and Harper AND TROUT. You'd have to trade Cozart and Calhoun to afford both of them...and be willing to rock a 235M payroll. And you forgot trading for Realmuto in this scenario. And Keuchel is more likely in full blown nutty.

4. Scrooged...ok. buzzkill.

 

Here's a reasonably good offseason. Trade for Realmuto (+7) sign Marwin Gonzalez (+12), sign Lance Lynn (+12) or Gio Gonzalez, sign Kikuchi or trade for Sonny Gray (+9). Extend Trout.

 

 

Hubs I didnt mention Realmuto as I dont see a fit unless we took Castro back and added Canning to the trade.

I thought about Marwin well before anyone else did and put it in one of threads back in October. 

Sonny Gray I'm not a fan. Previous injuries and mental makeup implosion in NY..... Think I'd pass.

[Dtwncbad]

On Sonny Gray. . .

I don't mind this guy as an upside calculated play, but as a sort of on-the-side move, independent of other intentional moves to address the pitching.

I hate the move if the Angels have to rely on Gray to be the stabilizing factor to have a good rotation in 2019.

[Hubs]

It just makes sense to me. I think it's New York's pitching philosophy that doesn't work with Gray.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-yankees-no-fastball-approach-might-be-breaking-sonny-gray/

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2018/12/mlb-trade-rumors-yankees-to-deal-sonny-gray-at-winter-meetings-a-new-suitor-emerges.html

[Dick Enberg]

4 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

 

Sonny Gray I'm not a fan. Previous injuries and mental makeup implosion in NY..... Think I'd pass.

and lets say we do sign Gray, get to the play-offs, he can't pitch in NY or BOS? cause he's a wuss?

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

2 minutes ago, Dick Enberg said:

and lets say we do sign Gray, get to the play-offs, he can't pitch in NY or BOS? cause he's a wuss?

Dunno Dick,

That's just the rumor on the street and in the fish wrap. Heard it late last season convo in the cafeteria.

And HUBS,

Yankee fans were riding him like Eddie Whitson late last season.

[greginpsca]

So far the meetings have been pretty boring.

 

[Second Base]

The first day of the meetings are always uneventful. Teams are just arriving, getting everything set up and making tentative schedules and speaking with the media. Teams really don't begin speaking in earnest until Tuesday, then things tend to go round the clock on Tuesday and Wednesday. Everyone says those two days are intense. By the time Thursday rolls around, teams are taking part in the rule 5, packing up and leaving. They say it's a week long thing, but really...it's only two days.

Unless of course you're Tony Reagins. That idiot would show up Monday night, complain about how useless the meetings were on Tuesday. Have a couple conversations on Wednesday and leave completely on Thursday. 

[Angel Oracle]

J. Pierpont Reagins, what a total joke of a GM, between he and Dumbpoto…...crappy GMing from 2008-2015 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

1 hour ago, Dick Enberg said:

and lets say we do sign Gray, get to the play-offs, he can't pitch in NY or BOS? cause he's a wuss?

Pitching there and living there in the midst of the media and fan frenzy are two different things.

[rottiesworld]

If I remember right. I think that Reagins was crying when he couldn't signed a free agent that he wanted.

[Angelsjunky]

Canning and Suarez give the Angels two guys who can have similar seasons to what Barria did. Then you add in Tropeano, Nate Smith, Pena, Peters, JC Ramirez (maybe), and the Angels have some nice depth at starting pitching.

Now I'm not saying that they should go with Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, and two or three of those guys. But maybe they only need to sign one of the better starters available (Happ, Keuchel). Or maybe they are bolder and work with Cleveland for a trade.