Angels have more money to spend than we think?

[Reveille1984]

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

The Division is not out of the Angels reach. Oakland improved from 75 wins to 97 wins, based mostly on improving their staff, (826 runs allowed in 2017, 674 in 2018) But they also improved their offense by 74 runs.

 The Astros could lose two starters, and their offense wasn't that good in 2018.

The Angels don't have as far to go to get to 674 runs allowed or lower, that can be accomplished by adding two reliable starters and cutting some of the poor bullpen performances and injury riddled staff. They do need to add 90-100 runs, though, and that's why they need a catcher, a 1B/RF bench bat,  and return to 2017 form by Upton and Cozart. A breakout performance from Ward or Adell would also greatly help the offense.

 But getting from 723 runs allowed to less than 650 is highly likely with a single reliable 200 IP starter. The Angels were among the lowest IP by starting staff, in the majors.  That needs to be corrected.

 

 

 

I feel like you're really underselling how great the Astros were last year, and how great they'll continue to be next year.  Their offense was 6th in all of baseball in RS last season, so saying their offense wasn't that good is a bit of a stretch.  They're currently projected to be around a 95 win team next year with a top five offense yet again (before the offseason plays out, they could still get better).

Not that the Angels can't or shouldn't try to improve, but I don't see a realistic offseason outcome that puts us in contention for the division.  We should definitely be aiming for a Wild Card slot though.  One of Boston/NY will grab one of them, and the secondary slot will likely be a free for all between us/TB/OAK and others.  Getting Corbin would have been nice, but like you said if we can maybe grab a decent starter (hopefully two) we should be in okay shape to hopefully start approaching the 90 win zone.  

[WeatherWonk]

Hey, the A's had as much bad luck as we had, with respect to pitching. Five pitchers who were scheduled to start for them will likely miss all of 2019. The difference is, they went out and filled in the gaps. But they were in it at the deadline.

Most all those stop gap players are not signed. Cahill, Anderson, Fiers, Jackson. 

[WeatherWonk]

3 minutes ago, Reveille1984 said:

 

I feel like you're really underselling how great the Astros were last year, and how great they'll continue to be next year.  Their offense was 6th in all of baseball in RS last season, so saying their offense wasn't that good is a bit of a stretch.  They're currently projected to be around a 95 win team next year with a top five offense yet again (before the offseason plays out, they could still get better).

Not that the Angels can't or shouldn't try to improve, but I don't see a realistic offseason outcome that puts us in contention for the division.  We should definitely be aiming for a Wild Card slot though.  One of Boston/NY will grab one of them, and the secondary slot will likely be a free for all between us/TB/OAK and others.  Getting Corbin would have been nice, but like you said if we can maybe grab a decent starter (hopefully two) we should be in okay shape to hopefully start approaching the 90 win zone.  

6th in runs scored, after sub-par seasons from Gonzalez, Guriel, Correa, the catcher's spot and really even Altuve.

[Reveille1984]

4 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

6th in runs scored, after sub-par seasons from Gonzalez, Guriel, Correa, the catcher's spot and really even Altuve.

Yeah, both Boston and Houston currently have historically great teams.  Imagine being the Yankees and winning 100 games last year just for the honor of a coin-flip play in game.  

Anything can happen over the grind of a baseball season, but something catastrophic would have to happen in Houston for them to lose their grasp on the division.  Even the biggest Angels homer imaginable has to admit they are the class of the AL West right now.  The good thing for us is that the playoffs in baseball are such a crap shoot that if we can just snag a spot and get in, we're in good shape.  

[WeatherWonk]

I wouldnt go so far as to say we are in good shape. Our starters and bullpen, as currently constructed, will not get us through even an ALDS without major luck. And we still need someone to get on base more often ahead of Trout.

[Hubs]

28 minutes ago, Reveille1984 said:

 

I feel like you're really underselling how great the Astros were last year, and how great they'll continue to be next year.  Their offense was 6th in all of baseball in RS last season, so saying their offense wasn't that good is a bit of a stretch.  They're currently projected to be around a 95 win team next year with a top five offense yet again (before the offseason plays out, they could still get better).

Not that the Angels can't or shouldn't try to improve, but I don't see a realistic offseason outcome that puts us in contention for the division.  We should definitely be aiming for a Wild Card slot though.  One of Boston/NY will grab one of them, and the secondary slot will likely be a free for all between us/TB/OAK and others.  Getting Corbin would have been nice, but like you said if we can maybe grab a decent starter (hopefully two) we should be in okay shape to hopefully start approaching the 90 win zone.  

I know, I don't think the Astros are as good as their record. They had a 109 OPS+, the Angels were at 100. They scored 4.92 runs per game, and we scored 4.45. They were 7th in OPS, the Angels were 16th.

The offense wasn't dramatically better than the Angels offense. It was better, but not dramatically so. The reason they won was their pitching was the best in baseball by a long shot.

The difference between the two offenses basically came down to the fact that the Angels struck out 100 more times than the Astros, had 40 less hits and 50 more walks. Angels hit more HR and 3B, but 30 less doubles.

The Angels have better hitters in CF, LF, DH, and at SS. The Astros are better in RF, 2B, 3B, and at 1B. Both teams were awful at C offensively. Next year, the offense will be about the same, except the Astros are losing their DH and likely their regular LF.

The Angels can make a move and get a better offense.

 

 

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Sorry, but 22 win improvements are fools gold unless it's progression from a young core realizing their potential.  2019 improvements need to be sustainable for more than 1 or 2 years.  While anything can happen, what is most likely has to guide your risk management.  

Can you grab guys who have a chance to give you more than expected just in case other teams falter or have bad luck?  sure.  But your long term resources are the real gold.  

The standard deviation from a team's win-loss record to their pythagorean record is 7 games. The standard deviation from a team's base runs expectation to their pythagorean record due to sequencing is also 7 games. Then there is the difference between projected performance and actual on the field performance, which is another significant somewhat random jump.

The point about resources is big. The Angels have a core of Trout, Ohtani, Simmons, and Upton - a group capable of putting up 25 war in a single season. Just getting average performances from the rest of this team could put them in the discussion for 100 wins. I'm not gona say you should expect that, but what I am saying is that this is the type of team capable of exceeding expectations by a significant amount because we are not looking for crazy all star level performances out of anyone, just health, middle of the pack performance and some luck.