Yelich deal. Missed Opportunity?

[eligrba]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

they're only bullshit if you take them to mean more than what they are.  

That's why I only use Angelswin as my unbiased baseball prospect authority. 

 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

OMG, a guy who has 60 ABs at AA and struck out 30% of the time is projected to be a 5-7 WAR player in 2-3 years?

Isnt this a bit premature? 

If he's that good, why isnt he in the top 40 prospects lists?

he is actually.  Going to be in the top 20 and even top 10 on most lists entering the 2019 season.  

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

OMG, a guy who has 60 ABs at AA and struck out 30% of the time is projected to be a 5-7 WAR player in 2-3 years?

Isnt this a bit premature? 

If he's that good, why isnt he in the top 40 prospects lists?

Because he is 4th

[Stradling]

Jim Callis predicts him at 2

https://www.mlb.com/news/jim-callis-predicts-mlb-top-10-2019-prospects/c-294181356

[WeatherWonk]

Not with the links on BR.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=adell-000jo-#all_prospects

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, WeatherWonk said:

Not with the links on BR.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=adell-000jo-#all_prospects

Yes, and then they played 2018

[Stradling]

Here’s a mid season one that has him at 16

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-baseball-prospects-2018-midseason-rankings/c-287320846

[Stradling]

Another mid season one but this one has him at 3

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/41327/2018-prospects-the-midseason-top-50/

[nate]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Just a hunch adding a 20 year old Adell to the outfield would probably bring down that average age pretty significantly 

If he replaced Calhoun, which is not likely, that would be 11 years younger, which comes to .44 years off the average.

If he replaced Hermosillo, that would be 3 years younger, which is .12 years.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, nate said:

If he replaced Calhoun, which is not likely, that would be 11 years younger, which comes to .44 years off the average.

If he replaced Hermosillo, that would be 3 years younger, which is .12 years.

And we will have Fletcher take over at 2nd or 3rd from either Valbuena or Kinsler.  Cozart doesn’t help the average age, but he was probably part of the equation that got the number that high.  Probably but not guaranteed a younger catcher from Maldonado.  Really one guy, Albert drives up the age of the Angels.  

[Lou]

6 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

Not with the links on BR.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=adell-000jo-#all_prospects

 

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yes, and then they played 2018

 

 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Nobody wants to trade Adell or Canning.  I don't.

But the Angels are in a unique situation.  Their average age of starters is on the high end, so they need to get younger, but this is also a good group to try to win.

If they Angels could get younger and better at the same time, that is when you have to consider parting with prospects you otherwise don't want to lose.  In a perfect world you can do something and hold on to an Adell, but realistically you may have to consider trading him if it was for the right player.

Forget for a second whether or not Adell was rated high enough last year.  Would it have been worth it to trade him to get Yelich?  Tough to argue.  Yelich was the freaking MVP.

 

no one anticipated Yelich progressing into an MVP.  It was likely that he'd be similar and probably a bit better.  He's worth far more right now than he was when he was traded to milwaukee and even though he was worth a haul.  

I wish we would have traded Trumbo for Kluber.  I bet Atlanta wished they got more for Simmons.  I wish we would have drafted Whitley instead of Thaiss.  

Now that Yelich is an MVP, it looks bad for any team that could have afforded him at the time.  And it looks even worse for the Marlins who likely jumped the gun and could literally have rebuilt their farm if they had waited.  

Even Yelich didn't know he was going to be an MVP or he wouldn't have let the Marlins buy out three years of his arb for an AAV of 14 mil.  

No one you trade for is likely to make a similar jump that Yelich did and most teams would be crazy to bet on that.  

The reason you don't trade Adell and others for Yelich is that he wouldn't have moved the needle enough for the 2018 and probably 2019 seasons.  probably.  Because at the time, Calhoun also likely nets you a decent return like a solid major league starter or some nice prospects to offset what you paid for Yelich.  Maybe.  

I agree that this team needs to get younger.   But at some point it's going to have to be organic.  Adell, Rengifo, Fletcher, Canning, Suarez and maybe Ward or Thaiss etc actually replace guys like Cozart, Pujols, Calhoun etc. as opposed to trading away three of those young players for one guy who's 28 and has two years of control.  

If you are bad at drafting/signing and developing or moving older players for younger ones, you are going to suck.  Every single team that wins does with a good base of cheap, young players who are controlled for 4-5+ years.  We've got a good base of players in Trout, Simmons, Ohtani, Heaney, Skaggs, Upton, Barria.  But most of those guys are not cheap nor controlled for long periods at a reasonable price.  Some of them aren't overly young by baseball standards.  

Yes, at some point you have to consider moving the Adell types.  But not when you have to replace and/or improve on over half of your starts from an 80 win team, rub a rabbits foot about your bullpen, hope that your RF isn't one of the worst players in baseball for half a season, hope your 1bman doesn't fall and break a hip, hope your terrible 3bman comes back from injury and isn't terrible, and that two backup catchers can somehow combine to form one major league player.  

Maybe in a year Adell takes over RF and Jeremiah Jackson becomes the next Adell.  Canning and Suarez lock down rotation spots at a #2 and #4.  We add a couple of FA pitchers this year that actually work out.  Rengifo earns the job at 2b and shows promise.  The pen actually does what we hope it can do.  Some other prospects continue to step up.  We extend Trout.  

None of those things are unrealistic.  Having all of them is so let's hope the right ones happen.   

This team has to show that the existing players are good enough to warrant moves like adding Realmuto or Bauer or anyone else that depletes your longer term resources.  

 

[tdawg87]

55 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

OMG, a guy who has 60 ABs at AA and struck out 30% of the time is projected to be a 5-7 WAR player in 2-3 years?

Isnt this a bit premature? 

If he's that good, why isnt he in the top 40 prospects lists?

He's literally top 40 in every prospect list ever. Holy shit how could you fail this badly. 

[Stradling]

7 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

He's literally top 40 in every prospect list ever. Holy shit how could you fail this badly. 

He was looking at pre-2018 rankings

[Lou]

Just now, Stradling said:

He was looking at pre-2018 rankings

Trump will never be President

[Stradling]

Just now, Lou said:

Trump will never be President

Obviously, that’s asinine to think he would ever be considered.  He’s just doing this for publicity. 

[Lou]

Why in the hell would I watch the fight?  

Tyson is going to kick the crap out of Buster Douglas. 

[Lou]

My Olympic Hockey Prediction:

USSR 7

USA   1

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, WeatherWonk said:

OMG, a guy who has 60 ABs at AA and struck out 30% of the time is projected to be a 5-7 WAR player in 2-3 years?

Isnt this a bit premature? 

If he's that good, why isnt he in the top 40 prospects lists?

He's currently ranked 15th...   http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=prospects.   He was also 19, and in his first year of full season ball.

 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

4 hours ago, eligrba said:

How much longer until spring training?

First game of the spring is February 23 against San Francisco.

[Lou]

1 minute ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

First game of the spring is February 23 against San Francisco.

which is strange because the first day of spring is March 20th 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

which is strange because the first day of spring is March 20th 

I thought the same thing. Should spring training really be winter training?

The last game in camp in Arizona is three days after the official first day of spring.

[kevinb]

38 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

He's currently ranked 15th...   http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=prospects.   He was also 19, and in his first year of full season ball.

 

I think the big issue he has is Adell is projected to be a 7 war player. Which would mean people see Adell as an MVP candidate ? 

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

no one anticipated Yelich progressing into an MVP.  It was likely that he'd be similar and probably a bit better.  He's worth far more right now than he was when he was traded to milwaukee and even though he was worth a haul.  

I wish we would have traded Trumbo for Kluber.  I bet Atlanta wished they got more for Simmons.  I wish we would have drafted Whitley instead of Thaiss.  

Now that Yelich is an MVP, it looks bad for any team that could have afforded him at the time.  And it looks even worse for the Marlins who likely jumped the gun and could literally have rebuilt their farm if they had waited.  

Even Yelich didn't know he was going to be an MVP or he wouldn't have let the Marlins buy out three years of his arb for an AAV of 14 mil.  

No one you trade for is likely to make a similar jump that Yelich did and most teams would be crazy to bet on that.  

The reason you don't trade Adell and others for Yelich is that he wouldn't have moved the needle enough for the 2018 and probably 2019 seasons.  probably.  Because at the time, Calhoun also likely nets you a decent return like a solid major league starter or some nice prospects to offset what you paid for Yelich.  Maybe.  

I agree that this team needs to get younger.   But at some point it's going to have to be organic.  Adell, Rengifo, Fletcher, Canning, Suarez and maybe Ward or Thaiss etc actually replace guys like Cozart, Pujols, Calhoun etc. as opposed to trading away three of those young players for one guy who's 28 and has two years of control.  

If you are bad at drafting/signing and developing or moving older players for younger ones, you are going to suck.  Every single team that wins does with a good base of cheap, young players who are controlled for 4-5+ years.  We've got a good base of players in Trout, Simmons, Ohtani, Heaney, Skaggs, Upton, Barria.  But most of those guys are not cheap nor controlled for long periods at a reasonable price.  Some of them aren't overly young by baseball standards.  

Yes, at some point you have to consider moving the Adell types.  But not when you have to replace and/or improve on over half of your starts from an 80 win team, rub a rabbits foot about your bullpen, hope that your RF isn't one of the worst players in baseball for half a season, hope your 1bman doesn't fall and break a hip, hope your terrible 3bman comes back from injury and isn't terrible, and that two backup catchers can somehow combine to form one major league player.  

Maybe in a year Adell takes over RF and Jeremiah Jackson becomes the next Adell.  Canning and Suarez lock down rotation spots at a #2 and #4.  We add a couple of FA pitchers this year that actually work out.  Rengifo earns the job at 2b and shows promise.  The pen actually does what we hope it can do.  Some other prospects continue to step up.  We extend Trout.  

None of those things are unrealistic.  Having all of them is so let's hope the right ones happen.   

This team has to show that the existing players are good enough to warrant moves like adding Realmuto or Bauer or anyone else that depletes your longer term resources.  

 

Then why was he already getting MVP votes before he got traded?  He was already a Silver Slugger. . .

Here is what CBSSports said about him in reporting the trade at the time:

"Yelich, 26, hit .282/.369/.439 (117 OPS+) with 36 doubles, 18 homers, 81 RBI, 100 runs and 16 stolen bases last season. He was even better in 2016 when he won a Silver Slugger and got some down-ballot MVP love."

Are you telling me people would not view a 26 year old with those across the board impressive numbers as a potential MVP?  As I said, he was already getting votes on MVP ballots.

[Inside Pitch]

30 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

I think the big issue he has is Adell is projected to be a 7 war player. Which would mean people see Adell as an MVP candidate ? 

Sure, I get that.... But if someone is going to go the snarky route (which he did), the least they should do is make sure they aren't going off half cocked.   I mean there was a lot about that response that was easy to tear into, like his focusing on the smallest sample of at bats .vs his dominance at two levels of A ball.   A three level jump is nothing to wave off... When it comes at 19 and in a player's first year of full season ball it's idiotic.  Is he a sure thing 7 war player ... I wouldn't make that argument, but he's already a top 20 guy at age19, and he's better than a 60 at bat sample would have you believe.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Inside Pitch