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Simple Logic on Harper


Dtwncbad

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1 minute ago, Second Base said:

I will say this.  If the Angels signed Bryce Harper, this team would be legendary in terms of on-field talent.  Harper and Trout in the same OF, soon to be joined by Jo Adell.  Shoehei Ohtani, the only two-way player in the last 100 years, and Andrelton Simmons, possibly the greatest defender ever.....

I can't guarantee they'd win, because the Angels would need to surround those guys with a lot of inexpensive talent, which means prospects like Thaiss, Rengifo, Jones, Canning, etc...would all need to become regulars, which is very possible, even likely, though not foregone. 

At the same time the pressure for those same players to be really good is reduced.  For the most part they would just have to be functional.

That is a good place to be.

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1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

At the same time the pressure for those same players to be really good is reduced.  For the most part they would just have to be functional.

That is a good place to be.

You'd think that, but that's the way it should be right now, and it hasn't mattered.  The Angels have still been garbage at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, RF and #4 and #5 SP.  If they were all functional in the first place, Harper wouldn't be necessary. 

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1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

At the same time the pressure for those same players to be really good is reduced.  For the most part they would just have to be functional.

That is a good place to be.

2020 Lineup

DH Ohtani

CF Trout

1B Harper

LF Upton

SS Simmons

RF Adell

C Realmuto/Ramos/Grandal

3B Ward

2B Cozart/Fletcher

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1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

I agree that not considering Harper because Pujols didn't work out is silly.  

But there are a ton of other reasons not to consider him.  

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have him, but I just see them waiting for Adell instead.  

 

Nothing wrong with that.  Yet imagine if Adell really turns out to be a beast and you have him and Trout and Harper and Ohtani and Simmons. . .

You can never guarantee actually win it all, but a whole era defined by having so many elite players can't be bad.

The Braves only won 1 WS in that decade of being stacked but the organization was elevated and they are enjoying watching those players wearing Atl hats getting inducted.

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I'd also like to point out that it's totally within normal thinking, not even crazy conspiracy theories, that Pujols is two years older than he claims, and will turn 41 in January.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-angels-could-get-out-of-paying-albert-pujols/

It is not just the aging curve fits better if he debuted at 23, instead of 21, and dominated and then declined just like a lot of players do, as his first year with the Angels, was supposed to be his age 32 season, 2012. But if it were his age 34 season, then the decline we've seen would make so much more sense.

Harper, is just going into his age 26 season. You'd be buying 26-35 or 26-37 latest.

Totally different concept than buying 32-41, or worse 34-43.

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15 minutes ago, Jay said:

I would rather spend the money on pitching.

 

We have to do that either way.  Whatever we get to help the offense has to be considered in addition to that, not in lieu of it. 
After letting some guys go and such we barely have the makings of a rotation right now unless you are counting on the kids being in the ml roster opening day which is way ahead of projections . 
 

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It's estimated the Angels currently have around $37m to spend. 
Should they get Harper at $35m, that taps them out.

So you then either move Calhoun for low-level prospects just to save $11.5m for pitching - unlikely. 
Or more likely move him for someone like Julio Teheran ($12.1m), crossing off one of the SP needs. 

After that, you've still used up pretty much all of that $37m, so you need to get creative filling the rest. 
You can probably get away with using our current infield and relief depth, but you should bring in at least a cheap vet catcher, and probably a cheap vet SP. 

Or you go more drastic - you move top prospects to bring in one more SP, but that likely eats into your IF depth unless you're relying on our OF/SP prospects. 
Alternatively, you move Simmons and save $13m right off the bat - putting Cozart, Rengifo, or Fletcher at SS - and you probably land three players - one already producing in the bigs, and two top prospects right on the verge. Either for the infield or rotation.

Saves you the difficult of figuring out how you afford Upton, Calhoun, Trout, Harper, Simmons, and Ohtani all in 2021 too, and likely gives you some cost-effective solutions to help that year at the same time.

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35 minutes ago, Jay said:

I would rather spend the money on pitching.

Such as?

There really isn't much on the upper-end of the FA market that makes sense, and if you're turning to trades to fill that need, the prospects you're giving up become just as critical as the money you're taking on, and in that case, if you're dealing prospects to fill pitching needs, you may as well use the dollars for hitting improvements. 

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If you sign Harper and work out an extension for Trout that makes the outfield investment over $85 million per year when you remember Upton is in left field.

If you extend Trout and wait for Adell the outfield costs around $62 million a year. 

The Angels are not signing Harper.

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5 minutes ago, Torridd said:

I understand that, but we won't win with just pitching in this era. We don't have enough offense.

I tried to figure out where 80 additional runs were going to come from on the offensive side.

Banking on Calhoun returning to 2016 form (say +25 runs), Ohtani improving and getting more AB's (+20 runs), Upton playing like 2017 (+20 runs), getting better production from 2nd and 3rd MIGHT get us there (+20 for Cozart alone, to his average year before 2017 --- his 2017 was 51 RAR, versus 0 for 2018). 

Realistically though, to get those Runs from the current lineup will be challenging, because all of the above have to happen, or a guy like Adell has to pull a Juan Soto, and some of the above happen, or Ward turns into 80% of Nolan Arrenado/Alex Bregman at 3rd, or Fletcher becomes Eckstein circa 2002.

 

Harper gets us at least halfway there on his own, and that's not even a top season like he did in 2015, that gets them all of the way there.... Adding a Catcher like Realmuto would also get them halfway.

 

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5 minutes ago, Blarg said:

If you sign Harper and work out an extension for Trout that makes the outfield investment over $85 million per year when you remember Upton is in left field.

If you extend Trout and wait for Adell the outfield costs around $62 million a year. 

The Angels are not signing Harper.

While true math wise, Adell is not currently on or expected to be on the ML roster this season so...

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10 minutes ago, Blarg said:

If you sign Harper and work out an extension for Trout that makes the outfield investment over $85 million per year when you remember Upton is in left field.

If you extend Trout and wait for Adell the outfield costs around $62 million a year. 

The Angels are not signing Harper.

If Adell is legit in two years, Upton could be in a predictable fade, and Trout could be gone.

Maybe the OF then costs you only $26 total!!!  Awesome, except that very well could be an average OF or worse.

That's worth waiting for.

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I don't think Pujols is the reason the Angels aren't going to sign Harper.

I think Trout is.

As stated earlier, it's pretty tough to win when you have 2 players making $70-80M a year. Also, all players go up in salary while they are declining (not like Pujols, if they are 34 instead of 38, but decline no less). Harper and Trout are about the same age. You want to have two players declining at the same time and making $50M apiece?

This all says nothing of the fact that they still also have Pujols for the next 3 years and Upton for the next 4, each making plenty of money on their own. 

Oh, and the Angels also need pitching, which is always overpriced and risky.

Edited by Jeff Fletcher
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15 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Everyone agrees you need pitching.  But the game today is also about having hitters in the box that can turn a mistake into a run by destroying it.

The old days of stringing together 4 hits to get 2 runs. . .those days are kind of gone.

I loved frenzied hitting.  

That 2009 offense was a pleasure to watch.  A bunch of guys flirting with .300 that didn't strike out 150 times.  

I'm all for finding value because a guy gets on and hits a bunch of hrs.  but if I had my choice of what I like to watch on a game to game basis, I'd choose guys that hit for a high avg. and not whiff.  

Morales, Vlad, Torii, Chone, Abreu, Kendrick, and even Juan Rivera (.287 with 25hrs and only 57k that year in 500+pa).  Hell, even napoli hit .272 that year.  

Upton, Calhoun, Ohtani, and Trout are gonna whiff a fair amount this year.  That's why La Stella might be a sneaky fun pick up and why I'd prefer Ramos over Grandal.  

I'm getting pretty bored of station to station baseball waiting for that 3 r hr. 

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4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I don't think Pujols is the reason the Angels aren't going to sign Harper.

I think Trout is.

As stated earlier, it's pretty tough to win when you have 2 players making $70-80M a year. Also, all players go up in salary while they are declining (not like Pujols, if they are 34 instead of 38, but decline no less). Harper and Trout are about the same age. You want to have two players declining at the same time and making $50M apiece?

This all says nothing of the fact that they still also have Pujols for the next 3 years and Upton for the next 4, each making plenty of money on their own. 

Oh, and the Angels also need pitching, which is always overpriced and risky.

f'n Trout.  

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4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I don't think Pujols is the reason the Angels aren't going to sign Harper.

I think Trout is.

As stated earlier, it's pretty tough to win when you have 2 players making $70-80M a year. Also, all players go up in salary while they are declining (not like Pujols, if they are 34 instead of 38, but decline no less). Harper and Trout are about the same age. You want to have two players declining at the same time and making $50M apiece?

This all says nothing of the fact that they still also have Pujols for the next 3 years and Upton for the next 4, each making plenty of money on their own. 

Oh, and the Angels also need pitching, which is always overpriced and risky.

This is to me a very hot take Jeff.  If Trout is the problem per se, how can we possibly retain him and build a winner as hes only going to get even more expensive.   It sounds to me like thats almost a reason to consider a trade to at least re-stock.
He cant simultaneously be the piece we build around and the reason we cant build, one has to give. 

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3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I loved frenzied hitting.  

That 2009 offense was a pleasure to watch.  A bunch of guys flirting with .300 that didn't strike out 150 times.  

I'm all for finding value because a guy gets on and hits a bunch of hrs.  but if I had my choice of what I like to watch on a game to game basis, I'd choose guys that hit for a high avg. and not whiff.  

Morales, Vlad, Torii, Chone, Abreu, Kendrick, and even Juan Rivera (.287 with 25hrs and only 57k that year in 500+pa).  Hell, even napoli hit .272 that year.  

Upton, Calhoun, Ohtani, and Trout are gonna whiff a fair amount this year.  That's why La Stella might be a sneaky fun pick up and why I'd prefer Ramos over Grandal.  

I'm getting pretty bored of station to station baseball waiting for that 3 r hr. 

And yet this is what the game has become with the whole three true outcomes and such which are a direct by product of the over analyzing of the game.   Walks, for all their merit, extend game times, they create station to station baseball when you have a bunch of guys that cant hit well but draw a lot walks.   For me there is nothing that drives me crazier that getting 2 walks in an inning and not scoring or leaving more men on base than you even actually had hits.  That my friend is the definition of boring baseball.  

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4 minutes ago, floplag said:

This is to me a very hot take Jeff.  If Trout is the problem per se, how can we possibly retain him and build a winner as hes only going to get even more expensive.   It sounds to me like thats almost a reason to consider a trade to at least re-stock.
He cant simultaneously be the piece we build around and the reason we cant build, one has to give. 

If you're building a car, you have an engine, and then a lot of smaller stuff around it. You can't have a car with two engines but no wheels.

You can totally build around Trout. You can't build around two Trouts.

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1 minute ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If you're building a car, you have an engine, and then a lot of smaller stuff around it. You can't have a car with two engines but no wheels.

You can totally build around Trout. You can't build around two Trouts.

 

Minor league player development. You certainly can.

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2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If you're building a car, you have an engine, and then a lot of smaller stuff around it. You can't have a car with two engines but no wheels.

You can totally build around Trout. You can't build around two Trouts.

Not sure i agree, many teams in many leagues have had multiple stars simultaneously, even more than 2.   Not every team can afford that per se, but i think the Angels could if they wanted to.
All i know is that if we dont plan to build around him as we should, then whats the point of having him?

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6 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If you're building a car, you have an engine, and then a lot of smaller stuff around it. You can't have a car with two engines but no wheels.

You can totally build around Trout. You can't build around two Trouts.

especially when one of them isn't actually close to being Trout yet going to be paid very similarly.  

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1 hour ago, Hubs said:

They arguably are the two best in the game, and with Ohtani, three of the top twelve hitters in the AL. The others at least right now are IMHO, Betts, Martinez, J Ramirez, Stanton, Chapman, Bregman, Lindor, Altuve, and K Davis.

One of the above does not belong. 

Not to nitpick a secondary point, but you think Khris Davis is a better hitter than Arenado, Votto, Bryant, Yelich, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Machado, Rendon, and maybe one or two others?

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