A new stat DRC+

[Docwaukee]

18 minutes ago, floplag said:

I might argue it already has gone beyond that point.  Analytics are all that matters to some, the game has literally become the joke about live action strat-o-matic in some ways.  If a manager goes with his gut, doesnt make a move the numbers suggest he does, he is questioned and lampooned endlessly if it fails.  Yes im exaggerating some, but not as much as i think most of us would like to admit. 

As far as things like computerized strike zones, no, im not for that at all.  I do think maybe using something similar to tennis to make calls on the lines or over them in the case of some home runs and such makes sense, but the rest is a bit much for me.   Then again if umpires keep injecting themselves into the game and looking for reasons to put the camera on them as some have/do who knows, but i would hope it doesnt come to that.   

Strikes zones have literally never been called correctly that i can recall.  90% of the high strikes by the book arent called and too many low ones are.  To me having that variation has always been part of the game and the hitters having to make adjustments to the umpires falls in line with that.  

I get what you are saying.  A lot of people I know feel similarly and I would hope that baseball understands their fan base.  Agree that if they take it much further, they're going to alienate a lot of interest.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I get what you are saying.  A lot of people I know feel similarly and I would hope that baseball understands their fan base.  Agree that if they take it much further, they're going to alienate a lot of interest.  

You see it already. When they have the zone up and the strike caster or whatever they call it and the pitch crosses the zone but the pitch is still called a ball. 

That would be the human element of the umpire brought into play and his understanding to the definition of the strike zone. Or, his personal beliefs in what the strike zone should be.

I still love the game. The human element is the part that I enjoy the most about it, though it can also frustrate. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Here is an example of statistics gone wrong within a daily game situation. That I believe we have seen countless times the last few years since the shift is being used with more regularity.

Left handed pull hitter who has issues picking up the slider. Facing a right handed pitcher (lets say a good example with our current team BedRock).  Current count is 1-2 within the pitch sequence the fastball was used to get ahead in the count and the third fastball was thrown and called up in the zone to change the eye level of the hitter which was taken for a ball. Slider down is called as this for the most part is extremely down and even in the dirt and we already know that the hitter has an issue with picking up the spin of the slider.

Manager has shifted the infield to the most currently used shift in the MLB for a left-handed hitter and positions the outfield defense shading to right field. 

We also know that the pitcher has consistency issues with his slider historically either missing down and or speeds through his motion where is arm doesn't catch up and the pitcher also doesn't get on top of the ball at which point the ball spins out of his hand in a frisbee motion (side to side).

Hitter is early and lunges at the pitch, but still is able to keep his hands back barely enough to catch the back side of the ball and drop it into left field for a hit.

Probability and Statistical data say you positioned your defense correctly within this situation and hitter and the pitch call was also correct for the count and situation. However, based on the pitcher not executing the pitch correctly within the given situation the hitter was able to still make enough contact to get on base. And now your data is skewed within this situation. 

All parts to the equation must be completed and performed correctly for the desired outcome and finality of the statistic.

[floplag]

27 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I get what you are saying.  A lot of people I know feel similarly and I would hope that baseball understands their fan base.  Agree that if they take it much further, they're going to alienate a lot of interest.  

I think they already have to a point.  Its part of the reason the game has declined in some quarters. 
Think about it, as a fan who gets hyped over platoons, role players, bullpen games... the loss of anything resembling a running game, all this stuff that has become so commonplace recently.   The logic is sound, the results make sense, but it isnt fun or exciting to watch in the slightest.

I would add to this, how do explain these metrics to new fans, kids, youth players.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Great Convo once again Doc and Flop!

[Docwaukee]

11 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Here is an example of statistics gone wrong within a daily game situation. That I believe we have seen countless times the last few years since the shift is being used with more regularity.

Left handed pull hitter who has issues picking up the slider. Facing a right handed pitcher (lets say a good example with our current team BedRock).  Current count is 1-2 within the pitch sequence the fastball was used to get ahead in the count and the third fastball was thrown and called up in the zone to change the eye level of the hitter which was taken for a ball. Slider down is called as this for the most part is extremely down and even in the dirt and we already know that the hitter has an issue with picking up the spin of the slider.

Manager has shifted the infield to the most currently used shift in the MLB for a left-handed hitter and positions the outfield defense shading to right field. 

We also know that the pitcher has consistency issues with his slider historically either missing down and or speeds through his motion where is arm doesn't catch up and the pitcher also doesn't get on top of the ball at which point the ball spins out of his hand in a frisbee motion (side to side).

Hitter is early and lunges at the pitch, but still is able to keep his hands back barely enough to catch the back side of the ball and drop it into left field for a hit.

Probability and Statistical data say you positioned your defense correctly within this situation and hitter and the pitch call was also correct for the count and situation. However, based on the pitcher not executing the pitch correctly within the given situation the hitter was able to still make enough contact to get on base. And now your data is skewed within this situation. 

All parts to the equation must be completed and performed correctly for the desired outcome and finality of the statistic.

one offs will always exist.  no form of analysis is going to work all that well if the actual players don't execute.  All of this stuff used to be swirling around in the managers' and coaches' heads.  Still up to the manager to have observed the two hanging sliders the pitcher threw to the previous batter or how he warmed up or whether he pitched the previous two days which might flatten out his stuff.  

the counter argument is watching Albert sting balls up the middle only to see the 2bman standing right there.  

I've never believed that stats alone should tell you what to do.  Before they become a huge part of the game, the really good managers were the really good statisticians.  They just didn't realize it.  A lot of the instinct we hear about isn't just some gut feeling or a crystal ball.  It's previous experience, recall and the assimilation of information that would guide those judgements.  It was never magic.  The need for guys who could do that better than others has become less important because of an ipad which is kind of a shame.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

one offs will always exist.  no form of analysis is going to work all that well if the actual players don't execute.  All of this stuff used to be swirling around in the managers' and coaches' heads.  Still up to the manager to have observed the two hanging sliders the pitcher threw to the previous batter or how he warmed up or whether he pitched the previous two days which might flatten out his stuff.  

the counter argument is watching Albert sting balls up the middle only to see the 2bman standing right there.  

I've never believed that stats alone should tell you what to do.  Before they become a huge part of the game, the really good managers were the really good statisticians.  They just didn't realize it.  A lot of the instinct we hear about isn't just some gut feeling or a crystal ball.  It's previous experience, recall and the assimilation of information that would guide those judgements.  It was never magic.  The need for guys who could do that better than others has become less important because of an ipad which is kind of a shame.  

Which is why I enjoy the statistical information you guys post on here. I just don't take it as gospel. 

Ex. to this is projections of statistics for current, former and prospects within our current organization. Or, sample sized hitting statistics brought forward to a 162 game season. That is where I look at mechanics for pitchers and swings for hitters. Though minor adjustments can be made on both overall you can tell where they will end up talent wise and where their fleas lie. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

one offs will always exist.  no form of analysis is going to work all that well if the actual players don't execute.  All of this stuff used to be swirling around in the managers' and coaches' heads.  Still up to the manager to have observed the two hanging sliders the pitcher threw to the previous batter or how he warmed up or whether he pitched the previous two days which might flatten out his stuff.  

the counter argument is watching Albert sting balls up the middle only to see the 2bman standing right there.  

I've never believed that stats alone should tell you what to do.  Before they become a huge part of the game, the really good managers were the really good statisticians.  They just didn't realize it.  A lot of the instinct we hear about isn't just some gut feeling or a crystal ball.  It's previous experience, recall and the assimilation of information that would guide those judgements.  It was never magic.  The need for guys who could do that better than others has become less important because of an ipad which is kind of a shame.  

Or, getting thrown out at first from shallow Left field by DiDi Gregorius...

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Which is why I enjoy the statistical information you guys post on here. I just don't take it as gospel. 

Ex. to this is projections of statistics for current, former and prospects within our current organization. Or, sample sized hitting statistics brought forward to a 162 game season. That is where I look at mechanics for pitchers and swings for hitters. Though minor adjustments can be made on both overall you can tell where they will end up talent wise and where their fleas lie. 

among other things.  the game is filled with exceptions that stats aren't likely to account for.  Like Simmons and that ugly swing of his.  Or how guys out pitch their peripherals or why not to write off Taylor Ward because of a slow first go around in the majors.