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Nats get Corbin - 6/$140m


Dtwncbad

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While a couple months ago many believed (me included) that Corbin would get a 4 year deal. . .

The market for him is red hot and a 5 year deal now looking more likely, with some saying he could get 6 years.

Wow.  This guy is really good and I would love the Angels to get him but he is starting to look like he is going from a longshot to completely unrealistic.

I continue to panic that the Angel starting pitching has a clear vacancy at the TOP of the rotation.

Heaney and Skaggs as #1 and #2 is uncomfortable.  The same two at #3 and #4 is very, very comfortable.

 

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It was reported at one point that he’ll get at least 6/$125m and someone even floated 7/$175m. Insane. 

He was great last year but nothing exceptional before. 

I don’t think the Angels have much of a shot at any of Corbin, Keuchel, Eovaldi, or even Happ. They probably have the best shot at Happ. Ultimately, I think they’ll snag a lower-tier arm with durability to hold down #4-5, and they’ll trade for someone to help the front half. At that point, it’s whether Eppler would rather sacrifice prospects - and to what extent - or simply assume salary, which would put guys like Greinke in play. If Arizona pays a portion and you get him essentially without surrendering any prospects - something akin to 3/$75m - it’s basically the Arrieta deal.

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And I still think you could try and get Arizona to include one of Lamb, Ray, Godley, or Bradley with Greinke, and either assume more/all salary, or get them to eat salary and the Angels include a couple solid prospects. 

It’s not ideal but it fills needs without putting us over budget or hitting prospect depth significantly. Greinke will likely age, but as of this moment, he still projects as being at least a very good #2.

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14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It was reported at one point that he’ll get at least 6/$125m and someone even floated 7/$175m. Insane. 

He was great last year but nothing exceptional before. 

I don’t think the Angels have much of a shot at any of Corbin, Keuchel, Eovaldi, or even Happ. They probably have the best shot at Happ. Ultimately, I think they’ll snag a lower-tier arm with durability to hold down #4-5, and they’ll trade for someone to help the front half. At that point, it’s whether Eppler would rather sacrifice prospects - and to what extent - or simply assume salary, which would put guys like Greinke in play. If Arizona pays a portion and you get him essentially without surrendering any prospects - something akin to 3/$75m - it’s basically the Arrieta deal.

Keuchel, is said to love LA (the area), but he's likely going to want a lot more than he's likely worth.

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16 minutes ago, totdprods said:

And I still think you could try and get Arizona to include one of Lamb, Ray, Godley, or Bradley with Greinke, and either assume more/all salary, or get them to eat salary and the Angels include a couple solid prospects. 

It’s not ideal but it fills needs without putting us over budget or hitting prospect depth significantly. Greinke will likely age, but as of this moment, he still projects as being at least a very good #2.

Doesn't Greinke have the Angels on his no trade list?

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11 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Keuchel, is said to love LA (the area), but he's likely going to want a lot more than he's likely worth.

Yeah, and I'm not too crazy about overpaying for a guy who led the league in hits allowed last year. 

I still can't see how anyone here could expect anything different from Corbin or Keuchel from what we got out of Weaver/Wilson. They might be really good the first year or so, but by Year 3 out of a 5 or 6 year deal, they're probably going to start regressing to back-of-rotation quality and you're still on the hook at that point for $20m-$25m.

That's why I keep coming back to Greinke if you can either get Arizona to eat some salary or include another useful player. 
He'd be essentially the same salary, but without having to pay Years 4, 5, or 6. Sure, at his age, it's likely he'll decline by Year 3, but Corbin or Keuchel might too.

He was nearly as good as Corbin last year - it's safe to presume you're getting a very good pitcher for at least Year 1 in this case, and hopefully 2020 as well.
And hey, maybe you can get Jake Lamb, Robbie Ray, Archie Bradley, or Zack Godley added in as well. You don't get that with Corbin/Keuchel, and you save a draft pick.
 

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1 minute ago, Biergott said:

Doesn't Greinke have the Angels on his no trade list?

Yes - but NTC are not always an indicator of where a player refuses to play. It's a negotiation tactic.
Often times, players add teams with deep pockets to their NTC because they know said teams have the money to sweeten the pot for the player to waive the clause. 

They know a team like the Angels or Dodgers may pay the $3m or whatever his contract language stipulates to waive the NTC, where a team like the Athletics would balk.

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Corbin got married in the off-season, and supposedly his best man brother, pulled out a Yankees Cap and said it's going to be good to have you pitching close to home again.

He's from New York, so I don't see the Yankees losing out on him.

And the Phillies can talk all they want, but I doubt they get Machado to agree to play 3rd, Harper to play RF, Corbin to go with Arrieta and Nola and then are players for Trout in two years.

1. Yankees

2. Phillies

No one else has a shot.

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17 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yeah, and I'm not too crazy about overpaying for a guy who led the league in hits allowed last year. 

I still can't see how anyone here could expect anything different from Corbin or Keuchel from what we got out of Weaver/Wilson. They might be really good the first year or so, but by Year 3 out of a 5 or 6 year deal, they're probably going to start regressing to back-of-rotation quality and you're still on the hook at that point for $20m-$25m.

That's why I keep coming back to Greinke if you can either get Arizona to eat some salary or include another useful player. 
He'd be essentially the same salary, but without having to pay Years 4, 5, or 6. Sure, at his age, it's likely he'll decline by Year 3, but Corbin or Keuchel might too.

He was nearly as good as Corbin last year - it's safe to presume you're getting a very good pitcher for at least Year 1 in this case, and hopefully 2020 as well.
And hey, maybe you can get Jake Lamb, Robbie Ray, Archie Bradley, or Zack Godley added in as well. You don't get that with Corbin/Keuchel, and you save a draft pick.
 

Hes not in my list, my point was mostly that we would likely be on his if the team was interested in him.

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FWIW, I'd be okay with Greinke if Arizona ate a small amount of the contract. He's due 95.5 M in actual cash for 19-21, as his signing bonus was already paid presumably. The D'backs would have to pick up what ever was deferred from previous years, Cot's believes it's 62.5 M from 22-26.

Arizona would have to pick up the 10M deferred in the three years he played with them, plus most of the other 32.5 M (10.5 in 19, 11 in 20, 11 in 21) deferred money he is still owed.

This would reduce his cost to the Angels to 62.5M, over three seasons. The luxury tax calculation would be 34.416 but that way the D'backs would be responsible for roughly 13.5M of that, meaning, that he'd be essentially a 21M pitcher. I can live with that for three years.

Unfortunately to get him and get them to still pick up 10-11M in deferred money, the Angels would then have to give up prospects of significant value.

Yet, I think Calhoun going back in the trade could reduce the amount of money they'd have to pay, meaning they only pick up deferred money in 20 and 21. That makes Greinke roughly a 31M expense in 2019, but then down to 21 in 20 and 21.

That helps both sides, so then say, we gave up David Fletcher or Renfigo, Brandon Marsh, and Matt Thaiss, in addition to Calhoun.

That seems mostly fair.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Hubs said:

FWIW, I'd be okay with Greinke if Arizona ate a small amount of the contract. He's due 95.5 M in actual cash for 19-21, as his signing bonus was already paid presumably. The D'backs would have to pick up what ever was deferred from previous years, Cot's believes it's 62.5 M from 22-26.

Arizona would have to pick up the 10M deferred in the three years he played with them, plus most of the other 32.5 M (10.5 in 19, 11 in 20, 11 in 21) deferred money he is still owed.

This would reduce his cost to the Angels to 62.5M, over three seasons. The luxury tax calculation would be 34.416 but that way the D'backs would be responsible for roughly 13.5M of that, meaning, that he'd be essentially a 21M pitcher. I can live with that for three years.

Unfortunately to get him and get them to still pick up 10-11M in deferred money, the Angels would then have to give up prospects of significant value.

Yet, I think Calhoun going back in the trade could reduce the amount of money they'd have to pay, meaning they only pick up deferred money in 20 and 21. That makes Greinke roughly a 31M expense in 2019, but then down to 21 in 20 and 21.

That helps both sides, so then say, we gave up David Fletcher or Renfigo, Brandon Marsh, and Matt Thaiss, in addition to Calhoun.

That seems mostly fair.

Or if Calhoun wasn't involved specifically in the Greinke deal, it may make sense to still move him - either as a salary dump to clear room to take care of other needs, or in some sort of money swap deal, like Teheran, to fill a need. Or we keep him. But I'm growing increasingly comfortable with the idea of a cheap RF platoon, leaving the door open for Adell joining in June. 

There's enough wiggle room in dozens of different Greinke deal permutations that I think it's an interesting subject and as you said, it's essentially a three-year deal for a pitcher with a potentially reasonable salary.

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Just now, totdprods said:

Or if Calhoun wasn't involved specifically in the Greinke deal, it may make sense to still move him - either as a salary dump to clear room to take care of other needs, or in some sort of money swap deal, like Teheran, to fill a need. Or we keep him. But I'm growing increasingly comfortable with the idea of a cheap RF platoon, leaving the door open for Adell joining in June. 

There's enough wiggle room in dozens of different Greinke deal permutations that I think it's an interesting subject and as you said, it's essentially a three-year deal for a pitcher with a potentially reasonable salary.

Yeah, considering JA Happ is the same age and will likely command $45M over 3 years.

Greinke makes sense and I'd also like Sonny Gray. The only free agent pitchers I'd be interested in would be Eovaldi if his price is reasonable, Happ, Keuchel becuase he's a ground ball guy and we have excellent defense, and then Gio Gonzalez.

Oh and Matt Shoemaker. Maybe not for 4M, but perhaps for $2

 

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1 hour ago, Erstad Grit said:

Greinke and Ray would be a huuuuuuuuge lift for the rotation. I love that idea. 

I'd happily give up a decent prospect package for those two, especially if there was some salary relief in the form of money for Greinke, or taking Calhoun's contract. 

At that point, the Angels should be able to fill most of their remaining needs internally or on the lower part of the FA market. 

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1 minute ago, totdprods said:

For some reason, I could still see the Angels going big and being quietly in on Corbin all along. They needed pitching, they have the money, they have the backstory. He’s still close with Skaggs too. For 6+ and likely $120m, I hope I’m wrong.

my understanding was that he only visited east coast teams.  

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