First Base (still the elephant in the room)

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Worse? I don't expect anything out of Albert or really anyone besides Simmons in that group, so Albert doesn't really push the needle in either direction.

Oh yes he does.

[Hubs]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Firstly, there's a ton of offseason left and a lot of moves to make still. A lot can change. 
Secondly, we need to quit assuming Fletcher will automatically make the team, in either a starting or utility role. As long as Kaleb Cowart and Tommy La Stella are on the 40-man, Fletcher is likely ticketed to AAA as he has options, Kaleb does not, and given La Stella's background, isn't likely headed to AAA.


 

I liked Fletcher, yet I think he'll be up and down this year. So will Ward. Fletcher's defense is killer, but so is Cozart and SImmons, so I don't see him needing to be a defensive replacement, unless it's for LaStella or Ward, and why wouldn't they bring in Cozart if he's there?

And Ward showed something with the bat in the minors at 2 levels in 2017, so hopefully he learns to be capable defensively and we have a Craig Biggio-type on our hands. (only in that he moved off Catcher and his offense got way better, not that Ward will be a  HOF)

[totdprods]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

If Cowart makes this team over Fletcher somebody needs to be fired.

I've got a hunch there's a chance he's this year's Marte. 
The out-of-options guy they hold onto because he fills a very specific role that they didn't bother to upgrade in the offseason, in this case, the last infielder on the bench, solely because they didn't want to risk losing him on waivers.

As of right now, he fits - he does have 1B experience, he's good enough defensively to cover any IF position and they'd likely use him in the OF as well, and if that roster spot will only be used defensively in late innings, it won't see many ABs so the offense doesn't matter, and they won't want to limit Fletcher to a handful of appearances each week. 

My opinion? Our defense is good enough. Our bench shouldn't be the usual composition of guys who field really good - it should be dudes with a knack for coming off the bench and hitting and giving us raw offense to use in key situations late in the game. Honestly, I think that's where they should transition Albert as the season(s) continue - he still hits very well with RISP, in clutch situations, high lev, etc. As a full-time 1B candidate emerges, start using Albert strategically mid-game when the situation calls for it.

[beatlesrule]

20 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You again ignore we are not talking about benching Pujols.

Let me get you focused.

How many games do you honestly believe Pujols will be PHYSICALLY CAPABLE of playing in 2019?

What would you put money on?

I think the over/under is 50 games.

To the best of his abilities?  100.  This guy is delusional remember?  He will state he is in amazing shape and despite not doing it well, I think he plays at least 100 games at first. You realize that over under 50 games would mean that Ohtani doesn't start like 120 games?  That's insane.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

The most convenient, best-for-the-team solution would be if Thaiss hits his way on to the roster in the Spring.  Being a rookie he would politically sit behind Pujols but be at the ready.

The second cleanest is to have a decent veteran that can play other positions like a Daniel Murphy or Moustakas, as they would not be seen as pushing aside Pujols and only slid to first in the "emergency" that Pujols gets hurt.

No it isn’t the best for the team solution.  The team can not carry two first baseman when they have a DH only.  

[Dtwncbad]

6 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

To the best of his abilities?  100.  This guy is delusional remember?  He will state he is in amazing shape and despite not doing it well, I think he plays at least 100 games at first. You realize that over under 50 games would mean that Ohtani doesn't start like 120 games?  That's insane.

Dude you are having comprehension problems.

I am not sure I have the patience to try to pull you into the correct context again.

OK I found the patience for one more sentence.

What is the over/under for Pujols games on the DL in 2019?

Mine is 112.  (162 minus the 50 I predicted he would be physically capable of playing in).

50 games healthy enough to be in the lineup.

112 games on the DL.

Now do you get it?

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I liked Fletcher, yet I think he'll be up and down this year. So will Ward. Fletcher's defense is killer, but so is Cozart and SImmons, so I don't see him needing to be a defensive replacement, unless it's for LaStella or Ward, and why wouldn't they bring in Cozart if he's there?

And Ward showed something with the bat in the minors at 2 levels in 2017, so hopefully he learns to be capable defensively and we have a Craig Biggio-type on our hands. (only in that he moved off Catcher and his offense got way better, not that Ward will be a  HOF)

It'd be best for Taylor and the Angels if he goes back to SLC in 2019 and starts learning some 1B, or a corner outfield spot, or even 2B, and starts getting a little bit of a Justin Turner/Todd Frazier versatility thing going. It was way too much for the Angels to ask him to switch to a new position in 2018 and work on his bat...and then ask him to work on even more positions. SLC would be a good environment for him to start getting some of those reps. We have too many players limited to one position as is right now. 

And as big of a fan as I am of Fletcher, great teams have great depth. If you open 2019 with Rengifo and Fletcher working in tandem up the middle in SLC, that means you've added some quality players to the big league team, and should either of them fail, you actually have someone to bring in who has some potential - not a June waiver claim on this year's Nick Franklin or a trade for Brendan Harris.

If you can find reason to start Fletcher in AAA because you're adding to the ranks above, you do it.

[Dtwncbad]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

No it isn’t the best for the team solution.  The team can not carry two first baseman when they have a DH only.  

I am guilty of imagining they may end up with enough versatility in other roster spots to survive having two 1B and a DH only.  But it may not be realistic.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

I am guilty of imagining they may end up with enough versatility in other roster spots to survive having two 1B and a DH only.  But it may not be realistic.

If so Cron might still be here. 

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Stradling said:

If so Cron might still be here. 

I agree with that logic 100%.

But at the same time I think it could be different one year later.

I am personally so much less optimistic about Pujols' health AND if you bent over backwards to maximize flexibility over the rest of the roster, maybe 2019 could be different.

But your point is correct and I was ticked off that the Angels were clearly going to have to keep Valbuena over Cron, which we all saw ahead of time and ended up the truth.

[beatlesrule]

25 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Dude you are having comprehension problems.

I am not sure I have the patience to try to pull you into the correct context again.

OK I found the patience for one more sentence.

What is the over/under for Pujols games on the DL in 2019?

Mine is 112.  (162 minus the 50 I predicted he would be physically capable of playing in).

50 games healthy enough to be in the lineup.

112 games on the DL.

Now do you get it?

Yes and I don't think he is on the DL that much.  I think he stays healthy enough to play 100 plus games at first.

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I agree with that logic 100%.

But at the same time I think it could be different one year later.

I am personally so much less optimistic about Pujols' health AND if you bent over backwards to maximize flexibility over the rest of the roster, maybe 2019 could be different.

But your point is correct and I was ticked off that the Angels were clearly going to have to keep Valbuena over Cron, which we all saw ahead of time and ended up the truth.

even if we kept Cron, Albert would have played in lieu of him.  

[Dtwncbad]

5 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Yes and I don't think he is on the DL that much.  I think he stays healthy enough to play 100 plus games at first.

I wish I was as optimistic.

I really don't think his types of problems are solved with surgery and rest.  I personally think his body just is no longer capable of the normal every day rigors.

And if that is the case, his body failure could just as easily come in April as it could in August.

That just how I view it.

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

even if we kept Cron, Albert would have played in lieu of him.  

I understand that point too.  But had he gone on the DL in April for the rest of the season, having Cron would have been genius (versus Valbuena).

Both my gut and my brain tell me Pujols isn't going to be capable of playing more than 50 games in 2019.

[Hubs]

19 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It'd be best for Taylor and the Angels if he goes back to SLC in 2019 and starts learning some 1B, or a corner outfield spot, or even 2B, and starts getting a little bit of a Justin Turner/Todd Frazier versatility thing going. It was way too much for the Angels to ask him to switch to a new position in 2018 and work on his bat...and then ask him to work on even more positions. SLC would be a good environment for him to start getting some of those reps. We have too many players limited to one position as is right now. 

And as big of a fan as I am of Fletcher, great teams have great depth. If you open 2019 with Rengifo and Fletcher working in tandem up the middle in SLC, that means you've added some quality players to the big league team, and should either of them fail, you actually have someone to bring in who has some potential - not a June waiver claim on this year's Nick Franklin or a trade for Brendan Harris.

If you can find reason to start Fletcher in AAA because you're adding to the ranks above, you do it.

You're assuming he's not the 3rd base guy of the future.

I always like Taylor as a hitter, he always impressed me. He seemed to get bogged down with catching, and then when he knew he wasn't going to catch, he dominated with the bat. This isn't the same as Fletcher killing it in AAA before never hitting like that before, that could be a breakout, but it could be a fluke. Blash kills it at AAA and then can't even manage to be replacement level last year with the Angels.

Taylor Ward hit well in double A, where the hitting environment isn't nearly as good as SLC. His numbers were identical in AA and AAA, playing a new position. He struck out too much in Anaheim, that's where the fault lies in his batting with the Angels. I think that's fixable. He's always had a good eye, good OBP, and really only struggle offensively at A+ where he was catching nearly every day. In his first taste of AA in 2017, he hit to a .400 OBP. As a catcher. So there is room for improvement.

I think he'll hit in 2019, but he'll start the year as the starting AAA 3B, he'll play there for 2 months, then start the vast majority of the games for the Angels at 3rd, 90-100, the rest of the way out.

Fletcher I think starts with the big club, and he/LaStella/and Cozart man 2nd and 3rd in equal shares. The LaStella gets cut when Ward is called up.

 

 

[floplag]

Im going to be optimistic and say Pujols will play between 80-100 games at 1B, mainly because we need him to if we are going to make an effort at actually winning at this point. 
We dont have the budget for an effective backup so if hes out for an extended period Thaiss or Ward better be ready sooner than expected and produce at an effective level.

[Docwaukee]

Albert played 70 games at first last year and there were times in August where he would fall down (or dive as some might call it) for a ball and had a horrible time getting up.  There's no chance he plays 100 games in the field next year coming off surgery 

[Dtwncbad]

4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

You're assuming he's not the 3rd base guy of the future.

I always like Taylor as a hitter, he always impressed me. He seemed to get bogged down with catching, and then when he knew he wasn't going to catch, he dominated with the bat. This isn't the same as Fletcher killing it in AAA before never hitting like that before, that could be a breakout, but it could be a fluke. Blash kills it at AAA and then can't even manage to be replacement level last year with the Angels.

Taylor Ward hit well in double A, where the hitting environment isn't nearly as good as SLC. His numbers were identical in AA and AAA, playing a new position. He struck out too much in Anaheim, that's where the fault lies in his batting with the Angels. I think that's fixable. He's always had a good eye, good OBP, and really only struggle offensively at A+ where he was catching nearly every day. In his first taste of AA in 2017, he hit to a .400 OBP. As a catcher. So there is room for improvement.

I think he'll hit in 2019, but he'll start the year as the starting AAA 3B, he'll play there for 2 months, then start the vast majority of the games for the Angels at 3rd, 90-100, the rest of the way out.

Fletcher I think starts with the big club, and he/LaStella/and Cozart man 2nd and 3rd in equal shares. The LaStella gets cut when Ward is called up.

 

 

I want to be wrong on Ward.  I swear I do.  But I just hate his swing.  It just seems to be too long and too inside out.  The margin for error is too high.

The jump to the majors is big and I can't get myself to have optimism that his offensive game will translate.

But he is in the organization and I beg to be wrong.

[Dtwncbad]

7 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Albert played 70 games at first last year and there were times in August where he would fall down (or dive as some might call it) for a ball and had a horrible time getting up.  There's no chance he plays 100 games in the field next year coming off surgery 

Yes exactly.

The limitations you saw were not related to anything other than his actual body today can't handle it.  I don't think he was playing hurt and that caused the limitations.

I think it is the opposite.

I think forcing his body to try to handle the everyday rigors will cause injury.

50 games.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

Im going to be optimistic and say Pujols will play between 80-100 games at 1B, mainly because we need him to if we are going to make an effort at actually winning at this point. 
We dont have the budget for an effective backup so if hes out for an extended period Thaiss or Ward better be ready sooner than expected and produce at an effective level.

the more Albert plays, the less chance we have to win.  He had -0.6 WAR there in 2018 in just 70 games.  

I know this isn't supposed to be a rip on albert thread, but Marte and Fernandez combined for 0.4 WAR in their 250 at bats there.  

it would be better for the team if he were out and we platoon Ward and Thaiss there.  

I actually really hope they give La Stella a 1b glove and throw him out there as much as possible at this point.  

[Blarg]

58 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Not that I disagree Doc, but the team needs to score 800 runs-ish to make the playoffs, 

Only five teams in baseball scored 800 runs last season. The Angels we're about 80 shy of that or about half a run a game. It won't take that much to get there, the question is, can they suppress runs from being scored? 

[Blarg]

BTW that 1/2 run per game could simply be Ohtani DHing most of the season rather than only three days a week. 

[Hubs]

Just now, Dochalo said:

Albert played 70 games at first last year and there were times in August where he would fall down (or dive as some might call it) for a ball and had a horrible time getting up.  There's no chance he plays 100 games in the field next year coming off surgery 

I agree, I think he plays 3 days a week a first and once as the DH.

That would be 81 games as the first baseman on the low end and 27 as DH.

[floplag]

11 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

the more Albert plays, the less chance we have to win.  He had -0.6 WAR there in 2018 in just 70 games.  

I know this isn't supposed to be a rip on albert thread, but Marte and Fernandez combined for 0.4 WAR in their 250 at bats there.  

it would be better for the team if he were out and we platoon Ward and Thaiss there.  

I actually really hope they give La Stella a 1b glove and throw him out there as much as possible at this point.  

See point about actually making an effort to win, if thats our answer, then were not doing that IMO.  

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Only five teams in baseball scored 800 runs last season. The Angels we're about 80 shy of that or about half a run a game. It won't take that much to get there, the question is, can they suppress runs from being scored? 

I think their pitching was undone by a few bad starts, particularly one 6 game stretch in September where they gave up 58 runs. I think between that, and say 9-12 other particularly bad starts they gave up 120 runs. I figured it out once, but don't recall off hand.

Their bad pitchers were really bad, so they need one guy to improve on that, AND they need a guy to effectively replace the innings Richards and Ohtani gave which were good.

Two starters, goes a long way, but if those guys cost $30 M, I see it better to spend $25 M and then spend $15 on the offense. (I've always believed 30 was low, I think we could've added 35, but then they also cut another 8, so now I'm saying $40)