The Offense

[Docwaukee]

13 minutes ago, floplag said:

To me, your view all comes down to the kids being everything you hope and more, and being it sooner than they should be.  It could work out that way i suppose, i dont have a crystal ball at the moment but it feels overly optimistic.  I would prefer they took steps that were more aggressive and less hopeful, but thats just my opinion

My "depth" comment was the org as a whole, not the ML level, just to clarify that.  Right now we have 4 people capable of playing 2B now or in the near future of the next couple years; Cozart, Fletcher, Regnifo, and Jones.  None of them really project to be a great 3B, and arent going to see any time at SS pending injury to Simmons.   Just because we slot on in at 3B doesnt make it ideal, i think we all know 2B is a much better spot for them.  It is perhaps our most deep position without exception really thus my comment on trade chips, we could easily trade one without missing much in the next 3-5 years.  

there's a ton more risk in trying to build a team with free agents and trades than with a cheap farm system.  

Every one of those is about hope.  

Name a playoff team from the last 10 years that didn't have a core of young farm talent leading the way for the major league club.  You have to go back to when the Yanks were buying titles due to an unequal market place in the late 90's.  

depth for a farm system is a good thing.  you don't need to trade it right away before its appropriately developed.  Cozart is gone after this year and Fletcher is a util long term.  That leaves you two right now for 2020 and neither has major league experience.  There's a lot of risk in trading from that right now.  

The game has changed.  You can't fake it anymore.  

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

there's a ton more risk in trying to build a team with free agents and trades than with a cheap farm system.  

Every one of those is about hope.  

Name a playoff team from the last 10 years that didn't have a core of young farm talent leading the way for the major league club.  You have to go back to when the Yanks were buying titles due to an unequal market place in the late 90's.  

depth for a farm system is a good thing.  you don't need to trade it right away before its appropriately developed.  Cozart is gone after this year and Fletcher is a util long term.  That leaves you two right now for 2020 and neither has major league experience.  There's a lot of risk in trading from that right now.  

The game has changed.  You can't fake it anymore.  

Theres risk either way, however, there is much less risk in dealing with known commodities and yes perhaps less reward versus cost. 

Again im not and never have been against building something long term, of course it makes sense, my only position is that doing that doesnt have to mean ignoring the now.  Especially when we have the added complication of Trout to deal with.

Ive never suggested trading away the farm, or going completely ham in FA.  Only that there are certain guys i would trade for pending cost and that i dont really consider anyone untouchable pending the return.  

[Docwaukee]

I guess I look at risk differently then.  I see tremendous risk in acquiring known commodities.  

[floplag]

23 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I guess I look at risk differently then.  I see tremendous risk in acquiring known commodities.  

Im curious, in what way?
I see a proven track record easily projectable.  Yes, you pay more thus the reward is lower based on the risk/cost.   They are not likely to go down significantly in most cases unless age is a factor.
The advantage in your definition is that the risk versus reward is higher IF they beat projections, and the risk is negated if they dont as they are low cost.  
The bottom line is that both are needed, a mix of FA and farm. 
You asked about winning teams recently, to me its no shock that Betts broke out for the BoSox once they added Martinez for example.

[Barrett]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

there's a ton more risk in trying to build a team with free agents and trades than with a cheap farm system.  

Every one of those is about hope.  

Name a playoff team from the last 10 years that didn't have a core of young farm talent leading the way for the major league club.  You have to go back to when the Yanks were buying titles due to an unequal market place in the late 90's.  

depth for a farm system is a good thing.  you don't need to trade it right away before its appropriately developed.  Cozart is gone after this year and Fletcher is a util long term.  That leaves you two right now for 2020 and neither has major league experience.  There's a lot of risk in trading from that right now.  

The game has changed.  You can't fake it anymore.  

Cozart was signed to a 3 year deal not 2.

[zenmaster]

I think our offense is going to be stagnant until the 250lb elephant at first base retires. 

[Hubs]

Ok, so I already stated my opinions on what they should do, but I also want to explain one or two things.

We should add a versatile player like Marwin Gonzalez or Dietrich or Zobrist or Lowrie, because they may need a full-time 1st Baseman, or may need one for 40 games, it depends entirely on Pujols' health and they have two in the minors they are hoping contribute in 2019. Gonzalez makes the most sense because he's a free agent, didn't get a qualifying offer and can play 1st, 2nd, and RF (as well as SS and 3B...in a pinch).

They shouldn't go for Moustakas. I liked Moustakas as an option last year because we had Yunel Escobar and Luis Valbuena at 3rd in 2017 so it made sense. They had no 3B in the farm of note. And he's a lefty power hitter whom I felt we could've used to break up the Trout/Upton/Pujols Right handed 2/3/4 in the lineup. We got that lefty Power Hitter in Ohtani. Moustakas has always been ok with batting average, something the Angels need to improve, but he's also always been poor with OBP, something the Angels also need to improve. They were 11th in the AL in Average at .242 and 10th in OBP at .314. And that's including Trout's .312 and .460, without him, it would be .235 BA and a .297 OBP.

They need a higher OBP and higher average guy.

Ward didn't show a dominant bat in his debut, by any means, but I'd like to see him given 100 or so games in the majors in 2019. I feel like if he can find success with the Bat the way he did in AA and AAA last year, we'd have a 3B for the next decade. Fletcher didn't hit like Ward did in the minors, minus his 58 game stretch where he hit .350 and .394, which is way out of line with his other career stats. People seem comfortable giving him a shot for at least a utility role. His career OPS numbers in the minors are around what he did in the majors. A sub .700 OPS.

Ward hit .352 and .345 in his two levels last year with a .442 and .453 OBP and a .537 and .520 SLG in his two levels. He's always had a high OBP in the minors, except in 2016 at A+, and catching takes a toll. I'd say if he can give the Angels a .290 BA with a .375 OBP and a .450 SLG who wouldn't take that? And he could arguably be better.

I'm not saying one of these two players' minor league numbers is for real and one isn't. And going into the season with just Fletcher and Ward as the starting 2nd and 3rd baseman is not likely, but they do also have Cozart, who we have to hope can hit like 2017, or somewhere between that and his career norms prior.

 

 

[Hubs]

Also, the Angels struggled with a lot of low BA, low OBP guys last season, with Pujols at .700 OPS with a sub .300 OBP leading the poor hitter parade. But Cozart, Calhoun, Marte, Valbuena, Kinsler, Fernandez, Fletcher, Ward, Maldonado, Briceno, Arcia, Cowart, Blash, Hudson, Young and Young all were sub par hitters for the Angels last year.

They've already moved on from the vast majority of these guys. Only half remain and at least two of those spots are tenuous. Pujols, Cozart, Calhoun, Fletcher, Ward, Briceno, Cowart, and Blash remain on the 40-man. Marte remains with the org, but was outrighted to SLC. And at least four of them are expected to be better than they were in 2018.

They added Kevan Smith who is an upgrade offensively over Briceno and Arcia, and I hope they add a Ramos or Cervelli as a starting Catcher. Or Grandal I suppose, but he costs a draft pick. Or Realmuto, but he'll cost 3 good prospects.

Adding two solid offensive players at positions where they struggled (1st/RF and C) and counting on the young infielders and Cozart to improve at 2nd and 3rd is how this offense improves by 80-100 runs.

 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Im curious, in what way?
I see a proven track record easily projectable.  Yes, you pay more thus the reward is lower based on the risk/cost.   They are not likely to go down significantly in most cases unless age is a factor.
The advantage in your definition is that the risk versus reward is higher IF they beat projections, and the risk is negated if they dont as they are low cost.  
The bottom line is that both are needed, a mix of FA and farm. 
You asked about winning teams recently, to me its no shock that Betts broke out for the BoSox once they added Martinez for example.

age is always a factor in FAcy.  take a look at every medium to large free agent contract and you'll see very little surplus value ever.  it's such a bad bet.  They almost never do what they previously did.  

as far as trades, you give up significant prospect currency to pay a little less but only for a 1-3 year window.  

I wouldn't say you can ever negate risk, but you can significantly mitigate a big portion of it by building from within.  But that also includes not relying in any one particular prospect before you really know who they are.  Individual prospects are actually very risky.  But you get around that by having depth.  That depth serves two functions.  First, it gives you additional players to fill in should the one at the top of the food chain not work out.  Second, it gives you additional currency if those upper guys work out.  

the 2b example for us is a good one as is the OF.  Fletcher might end up a starter, but likely more geared toward util.  Cozart isn't a long term answer at all (by long term I mean 3-6 years), Rengifo has potential but hasn't played a major league game.  Jones has potential but is still in AA.  Ideally, Rengifo becomes your leadoff guy of the future and Jones becomes redundant after a good year at AA/AAA in 2019.  Chances are that one of them will work out but we don't know which at this point.  And by work out, I generally be a solid everyday avg player to maybe above that at peak at very little cost.  OF is the same way.  We've got a shit ton of OF prospects but they're all super young.  Adell is at the top of the depth chart but we still need to see if he can succeed at the major league level which isn't guaranteed but I like the odds.  So for now, you keep guys like Marsh and Deveaux and Adams and Knowles.  Not just to protect you against Adell not working out but because those four other guys are likely going to be worth more over time which increases their value.  Sure, two of them might not amount to much, but another will progress appropriately into a top prospect while another might turn into the next Adell in terms of value.  

Rengifo is a great example and the majors is filled with tons of guys like him where teams usually sit on them and wait It just so happens that the other teams didn't and we were able to take advantage of that.  Now he's got really good value as a potential major league player or maybe a trade piece down the line.  

Yes you need to have some guys at the top of your list that are projected to be good or even great.  But you mitigate risk and obtain your most value when you couple that with depth and not at just one or two spots.  We've got good depth with some good upper tier prospects.  But in a year or two as guys progress, we'll have great depth with even more good to great upper tier guys.  On top of that, a bunch of those guys will then be supplementing the major league club at minimal cost so you can afford to grab that one free agent and make those two trades to put you over the top.  

There are a lot of good examples where recent teams didn't jump the gun on FA or trade acquisitions and they all happen to be teams that have recently won a WS or at least gotten deep into the playoffs.  

[stormngt]

4 hours ago, floplag said:

perhaps because we still do not have a legit 3B option aside from a group of converted 2B and it makes some sense? 

I just dont think it makes sense to speculate about him when Eppler already said they are filling the infield needs with in house options.

[Second Base]

Seriously though, a lot of folks knew the offense needed depth way back in November. 

[Lou]

On November 29, 2018 at 12:25 PM, Dochalo said:

age is always a factor in FAcy.  take a look at every medium to large free agent contract and you'll see very little surplus value ever.  it's such a bad bet.  They almost never do what they previously did.  

as far as trades, you give up significant prospect currency to pay a little less but only for a 1-3 year window.  

I wouldn't say you can ever negate risk, but you can significantly mitigate a big portion of it by building from within.  But that also includes not relying in any one particular prospect before you really know who they are.  Individual prospects are actually very risky.  But you get around that by having depth.  That depth serves two functions.  First, it gives you additional players to fill in should the one at the top of the food chain not work out.  Second, it gives you additional currency if those upper guys work out.  

the 2b example for us is a good one as is the OF.  Fletcher might end up a starter, but likely more geared toward util.  Cozart isn't a long term answer at all (by long term I mean 3-6 years), Rengifo has potential but hasn't played a major league game.  Jones has potential but is still in AA.  Ideally, Rengifo becomes your leadoff guy of the future and Jones becomes redundant after a good year at AA/AAA in 2019.  Chances are that one of them will work out but we don't know which at this point.  And by work out, I generally be a solid everyday avg player to maybe above that at peak at very little cost.  OF is the same way.  We've got a shit ton of OF prospects but they're all super young.  Adell is at the top of the depth chart but we still need to see if he can succeed at the major league level which isn't guaranteed but I like the odds.  So for now, you keep guys like Marsh and Deveaux and Adams and Knowles.  Not just to protect you against Adell not working out but because those four other guys are likely going to be worth more over time which increases their value.  Sure, two of them might not amount to much, but another will progress appropriately into a top prospect while another might turn into the next Adell in terms of value.  

Rengifo is a great example and the majors is filled with tons of guys like him where teams usually sit on them and wait It just so happens that the other teams didn't and we were able to take advantage of that.  Now he's got really good value as a potential major league player or maybe a trade piece down the line.  

Yes you need to have some guys at the top of your list that are projected to be good or even great.  But you mitigate risk and obtain your most value when you couple that with depth and not at just one or two spots.  We've got good depth with some good upper tier prospects.  But in a year or two as guys progress, we'll have great depth with even more good to great upper tier guys.  On top of that, a bunch of those guys will then be supplementing the major league club at minimal cost so you can afford to grab that one free agent and make those two trades to put you over the top.  

There are a lot of good examples where recent teams didn't jump the gun on FA or trade acquisitions and they all happen to be teams that have recently won a WS or at least gotten deep into the playoffs.  

I didn't read any of this. 

[eligrba]

This offense is the equivalent of a Boeing 737 Max at take off.

 

 

Too soon?

[fan_since79]

Everyone's talking about "we need a catcher", but I thought we got Lucroy for that.

But PLEASE get LaStella out of the lineup. Cozart's bat is also garbage. This offense is out of whack. Hurry back, Ohtani!

[floplag]

Its too early to play the vindication card, but.. yeah this needs to get better quick. 

[Lou]

Lucroy is 2nd in BA (tied with Trout) and 3rd in OBP. 

[Stradling]

Lucroy has looked good.  Trout is Trout.  Kole has looked good.  Albert hasn’t been bad and has at least two hits against the shift.  Simmons will be better than he is right now.  Bour and Cozart aren’t .100 hitters.  Bourjos isn’t good. 

[T.G.]

The best offense is a great defense.

Wait.

Wrong sport?

[GrittyVeterans]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Lucroy has looked good.  Trout is Trout.  Kole has looked good.  Albert hasn’t been bad and has at least two hits against the shift.  Simmons will be better than he is right now.  Bour and Cozart aren’t .100 hitters.  Bourjos isn’t good. 

Agree mostly. Not sure Lucroy is any good. Is Cozart a .100 hitter? Of course not. I also struggle with the idea that he’s anything more than his career average

[totdprods]

It's painful to watch right now, but this is the best plan for the org's long-term offense. 

1) Trot out Bour, La Stella, Calhoun, Goodwin, Cozart, Bourjos, Pujols for now, for better or worse, and see who sticks. Same goes for Cahill, Harvey, and yes, Stratton.
2) As summer goes on, start benching/cutting those above who aren't producing, open trade discussions for those above who are producing. 
3) As players are benched/released/traded, begin filling internally with prospects and let them get some non-pressure playing time in, like Ward did last year. 

2019 is a gap year. If we compete, awesome, but it's been clearly the best plan since we lost Richards and Ohtani to Tommy John. 

For the time being, driving up the value of our expiring vet contracts should be as almost as important as winning (obviously without spending beyond reason to win). 
Even lesser guys like Bour and La Stella could fetch cash considerations as bench players for contending teams, and Eppler has used those cash considerations to get us guys like Pena.

I'd be fine if we rolled with an all-kid line-up by end of year or to open next year...
Sept. 2019 or 2020:
Lineup: Fletcher/Rengifo 2B, Simmons SS, Trout CF, Upton LF, Ohtani/Pujols DH, Adell RF, Thaiss 1B, Ward 3B, Lucroy/FA C
Bench: Kruger/Briceno C, Walsh/Rojas CIF, Cozart/Rengifo/Fletcher UT IF, Hermosillo OF, with Marsh and Jones waiting in the wings.

And drop some coin on a SP or two...
Rotation: FA, FA, Skaggs, Ohtani, Heaney, Barria, Pena, Suarez, Canning, Sandoval

Let's just let the youngsters battle it out this year and next.

Edited April 2, 2019 by totdprods

[Mark68]

Our "offense" is pretty damn offensive.

[AngelsFaninGA]

I actually thought our offense would be solid and our starting pitching would be a liability. Turns out they both suck

[Reveille1984]

We've sure had a lot of "gap years" over the past decade.  One playoff series in nine seasons (likely ten after 2019) and Trout/Ohtani/Simmons are the only bright spots to look at position player wise on the current roster, with Ohtani not even playing.  Upton is already out likely half of 2019 and will be 32 next year.  

Hopefully a lot of these kids in our minor league system pan out, because we desperately need an influx of talented youth both on the pitching and position player side.  I'm trying to be optimistic for both this year and next, but I'm not sure what is going to be majorly different in 2020.  Even if guys like Adell/Rengifo come up, there's still going to be a learning curve while they get acclimated to the bigs.  We already have $135M allocated for 2020 before arbitration, and I doubt Arte is going to balloon our payroll up towards the luxury tax anytime soon. 

I'll stop there, just being a negative nancy. 

[T.G.]

The offense is just going through some "chronic changes."

[fan_since79]

I sure hope we get this team set up for the playoffs by the time Trout turns 30, because we know what generally happens to ballplayers after that. He'll have ten full seasons behind him at that point. I'm not saying he'll decline, but we really need to get moving on this championship quest sooner rather than later.