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Barria


wopphil

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Seems like we never discuss him as a trade piece. But IMO, he might be the best trade chip we have. Young, six years of club control, probably over-performed his real capabilities. He isnt likely to improve and his value is at its highest.

If we want to trade for a star player and don't want to move Adell, Barria might be the way to do it. Might the Mets, for example, consider a Syndergaard deal with Barria as the main component? Or the Marlins for Realmuto?

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7 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Seems like we never discuss him as a trade piece. But IMO, he might be the best trade chip we have. Young, six years of club control, probably over-performed his real capabilities. He isnt likely to improve and his value is at its highest.

If we want to trade for a star player and don't want to move Adell, Barria might be the way to do it. Might the Mets, for example, consider a Syndergaard deal with Barria as the main component? Or the Marlins for Realmuto?

Just curious why do you think he wont improve?

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2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

If this is true, wouldn't other GM's be well aware of it and thusly not trade anything of value for him?

Not necessarily. I am not suggesting he isnt talented, just that he probably performed a little better than he should have and therefore might be at the height of his trade value. Kind of like Puig when he first came into the league.

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16 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Seems like we never discuss him as a trade piece. But IMO, he might be the best trade chip we have. Young, six years of club control, probably over-performed his real capabilities. He isnt likely to improve and his value is at its highest.

If we want to trade for a star player and don't want to move Adell, Barria might be the way to do it. Might the Mets, for example, consider a Syndergaard deal with Barria as the main component? Or the Marlins for Realmuto?

Don't have an opinion on whether or not you throw him into a trade but it's a mistake to argue he over-performed his "real capabilities" based on 129 innings of a rookie season -- this is particularly true when you break his season down into smaller blocks where his HR issues seemed to spike, and an end of the season where it was pretty clear fatigue was impacting his command.   It's too early to tell what he will be, but he's already got the head to pitch at the MLB level which is a lot more than can be said of pitchers who showed much better stuff.

BTW -- Jered Weaver's rookie season saw him throw 123 innings of 2.56 ERA baseball .vs a FIP of 3.90.

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3 minutes ago, wopphil said:

He isnt likely to improve and his value is at its highest.

If he stays the pitcher he was last season, with no improvement, he is still a top of the rotation pitcher for next to nothing. 

His 3.41 ERA nestles him between the Yankees Severino and the Rockies Hendricks or about the 22nd best ERA last year. The 36 best in WHIP so it wasn't all smoke and mirrors. His 122 ERA+ graded him just a couple notches below Ohtani's 126.

I don't know what the Mets want for Syndergaard but with four years of club control, it's going to be a lot. Barria would be just one component of a minor league clean out.

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he out pitched his peripherals but that's who I think he's going to be.  Frankly, he was billed to me as a command/control guy and he had the command you'd expect from a rookie ie not very good.  He's got definite room to improve.  He actually had a solid swstr% that was higher than his overall k rate.  On par with guys like Zack Wheeler, JA Happ, Zach Eflin, Mike Foltynewicz, Anibal Sanchez, Rich Hill, Lance Lynn etc.  By pitch value, his slider had the 9th highest grade.  Sandwiched between Sale and deGrom.  He's actually a really good comp to Tanaka.  Similar velo and pitch values.  He's far from a complete product.  

If SP ends up being a huge commodity in this market, I would definitely make Skaggs available over Barria.  Jaime may never reach Skaggs' potential, but Tyler only has two years of control left and pitched all of 125 innings this year while still making a couple of DL trips.  If I can get a good, young position player that's ready to break into the majors and a near major league ready SP with upside to be a 2/3, I would do that in a heartbeat.   Like Camargo, Teheran and Gohara for Skaggs, and Calhoun or Riley, Teheran, and Toussaint for Skaggs and Calhoun.  That doesn't seem overly feasible on paper, but my point is that if Eppler can find someone who overvalues Skaggs and it willing to pay for it, then I would jump on that in a heart beat considering he's on got two years of control.  I think Skaggs is going to disappoint in 2019 where he does something similar to this year and pitches limited innings while spending some time on the DL.  

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2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

If I can get a good, young position player that's ready to break into the majors and a near major league ready SP with upside to be a 2/3, I would do that in a heartbeat.   Like Camargo, Teheran and Gohara for Skaggs, and Calhoun or Riley, Teheran, and Toussaint for Skaggs and Calhoun. 

I love ideas like this, and think it's definitely something Eppler should be considering. Skaggs would be a great catalyst to moving Calhoun's contract too. A team like Atlanta, with a shot at contention and a deep farm, could easily roll the dice on both helping them push for the playoffs without hurting their farm much. By moving Calhoun and Skaggs, you also clear up enough salary to bring in an expensive SP without it hurting salary much. Go cheap on RF until Adell comes in.

Camargo would be a fantastic add; he'd help at leadoff, could play 2nd or 3rd, would help free up Fletcher, Rengifo, Ward, or Jones in a separate deal if necessary, and even if you can't get a SP prospect back as good as Gohara, Atlanta has several others that would be great to add to the Suarez, Canning, Sandoval batch. Moving Calhoun and Skaggs clears up a good bit of salary - Atlanta might interest in someone like Parker or Bedrosian too.

NYY, Philly, St. Louis, Houston, Milwaukee could make sense for Skaggs too. San Diego could make some sense too. You can probably put Seattle in there too, given Jerry's love of Skaggs.

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Ultimately what dictates a baseball player's success professionally is the ability to adjust. Barria came in and shut the opposition down. Then after several starts, teams had seen enough to write a better game plan against him that would result in greater success. He is a 21 year old kid that wasn't succeeding because of an upper-90's fastball. Chances are, Barria will be similar to Lackey or Weaver in that he's going to need to take his lumps in the majors first. He'll probably only be a #5 starter in 2019 and 2020, but right around age 24/25 (2021/2022) is when I think we'll see him turn a corner and rattle off a few consecutive seasons of #3 level production. 

Teams adjusted to him and he'll adjust right back. 

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11 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Realmuto probably. Syndergaard probably not. I don’t see the Mets trading Syndergaard at all. 

I was reading somewhere that Realmuto’s asking price is even higher than during the season. Any truth to that? I just don’t see any scenario where the Angels could acquire him without Adell being the centerpiece. Barria, Suarez, and Marsh would be a good package if the angels wanted to upgrade that way, although it would definitely hurt the minor league system. 

 

I would rather see if we could pry Austin Hedges or Mejia loose from the Pads for a lesser prospect package. 

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6 hours ago, Second Base said:

Ultimately what dictates a baseball player's success professionally is the ability to adjust. Barria came in and shut the opposition down. Then after several starts, teams had seen enough to write a better game plan against him that would result in greater success. He is a 21 year old kid that wasn't succeeding because of an upper-90's fastball. Chances are, Barria will be similar to Lackey or Weaver in that he's going to need to take his lumps in the majors first. He'll probably only be a #5 starter in 2019 and 2020, but right around age 24/25 (2021/2022) is when I think we'll see him turn a corner and rattle off a few consecutive seasons of #3 level production. 

Teams adjusted to him and he'll adjust right back. 

I think this is an incredibly realistic take. It's one reason I don't really want to go into '19 with Barria penciled in as the #4 guy or anything. There's a good chance he'll have some struggles and need a refresh once or thrice in AAA in the next couple years, but ultimately, he'll be alright.

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28 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I think this is an incredibly realistic take. It's one reason I don't really want to go into '19 with Barria penciled in as the #4 guy or anything. There's a good chance he'll have some struggles and need a refresh once or thrice in AAA in the next couple years, but ultimately, he'll be alright.

For the majority of prospects that actually do make it to the major leagues, it's very normal not to succeed right away, and need some refresher assignments down in AAA. It's the ones that a great right away that are the exception to the rule.  But I think that because those guys grab the headlines, some fans become transfixed with the idea that once you're promoted from AAA, you'll stay up for good, and if not, then you're probably just a depth piece.  Even Trout at age 19 had to take his lumps first before becoming the best player on planet earth at age 20.  

Even with Lackey, if the top team didn't need innings so bad in 2003 and 2004, Lackey probably would have spent more time in AAA those years, because he was plain awful. 

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7 hours ago, Second Base said:

Ultimately what dictates a baseball player's success professionally is the ability to adjust. Barria came in and shut the opposition down. Then after several starts, teams had seen enough to write a better game plan against him that would result in greater success. He is a 21 year old kid that wasn't succeeding because of an upper-90's fastball. Chances are, Barria will be similar to Lackey or Weaver in that he's going to need to take his lumps in the majors first. He'll probably only be a #5 starter in 2019 and 2020, but right around age 24/25 (2021/2022) is when I think we'll see him turn a corner and rattle off a few consecutive seasons of #3 level production. 

Teams adjusted to him and he'll adjust right back. 

how do you rationalize those two points in the same thought? what evidence is there to suggest that it would take him 2 full years to adjust?

i always kind of chuckle at the notion that the concept of a #1 has cascaded all the way down to a #5. what i mean is, #1 is a synonym for ACE. that's been around for a long time. long enough for the argument to be made about whether or not a guy is an ACE or a...#2.

then, over time, we started hearing #3, #4, and #5. my question is this, what the hell is even a #3 or a #5?

lastly, i'm going to read at least one person's mind in this forum and say, "no, it's neither an in-n-out combo nor a taco combo platter." 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, ukyah said:

how do you rationalize those two points in the same thought? what evidence is there to suggest that it would take him 2 full years to adjust?

i always kind of chuckle at the notion that the concept of a #1 has cascaded all the way down to a #5. what i mean is, #1 is a synonym for ACE. that's been around for a long time. long enough for the argument to be made about whether or not a guy is an ACE or a...#2.

then, over time, we started hearing #3, #4, and #5. my question is this, what the hell is even a #3 or a #5?

lastly, i'm going to read at least one person's mind in this forum and say, "no, it's neither an in-n-out combo nor a taco combo platter." 

 

 

As it was explained to me, there's an ace and there's a #1 starter. The ace is where you go for eight shut out innings every five days. The number one is where you go for seven innings of 1-run ball every five days. There aren't many aces around any more. 

This is extracted from other pitchers that took a couple years, including Lackey and Weaver. Shoot, even the best pitcher in baseball right now Max Scherzer took 2- 3 years to get it all together. 

Its very common for pitchers to need a couple years to get it all figured out before finding their ceiling and consistency. 

 

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1 hour ago, TroutField said:

I was reading somewhere that Realmuto’s asking price is even higher than during the season. Any truth to that? I just don’t see any scenario where the Angels could acquire him without Adell being the centerpiece. Barria, Suarez, and Marsh would be a good package if the angels wanted to upgrade that way, although it would definitely hurt the minor league system. 

 

I would rather see if we could pry Austin Hedges or Mejia loose from the Pads for a lesser prospect package. 

I’d like to see Omar Narvaez targeted, he’s a left handed hitting catcher put up good numbers playing as a back up to Wellington Castillo. Still only 26

72E5C0B3-E9DD-40ED-ABA3-5868C9878CB4.jpeg

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1 hour ago, ukyah said:

how do you rationalize those two points in the same thought? what evidence is there to suggest that it would take him 2 full years to adjust?

i always kind of chuckle at the notion that the concept of a #1 has cascaded all the way down to a #5. what i mean is, #1 is a synonym for ACE. that's been around for a long time. long enough for the argument to be made about whether or not a guy is an ACE or a...#2.

then, over time, we started hearing #3, #4, and #5. my question is this, what the hell is even a #3 or a #5?

lastly, i'm going to read at least one person's mind in this forum and say, "no, it's neither an in-n-out combo nor a taco combo platter." 

 

 

it's so different now.  with the popularity of advanced metrics, the definition of what a pitcher is has a lot of versions.  David Price had 2.7 WAR in 176.0 ip with a 3.58 era.  Heaney had 2.8 WAR in 180 ip with a 4.15 era and Jon Gray had 2.7 WAR in 172.1ip with a 5.12 era.  Ranked 36, 32, and 37 by WAR.  

by many accounts, both Skaggs and Heaney performed as #2 starters in 2018.  

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14 hours ago, TroutField said:

I was reading somewhere that Realmuto’s asking price is even higher than during the season. Any truth to that? I just don’t see any scenario where the Angels could acquire him without Adell being the centerpiece. Barria, Suarez, and Marsh would be a good package if the angels wanted to upgrade that way, although it would definitely hurt the minor league system. 

 

I would rather see if we could pry Austin Hedges or Mejia loose from the Pads for a lesser prospect package. 

I have no independent knowledge of that but it’s logical. There’s no urgency to trade him now, as opposed to in January. 

Ask for the moon and see what you get 

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On 11/18/2018 at 11:32 AM, wopphil said:

Seems like we never discuss him as a trade piece. But IMO, he might be the best trade chip we have. Young, six years of club control, probably over-performed his real capabilities. He isnt likely to improve and his value is at its highest.

If we want to trade for a star player and don't want to move Adell, Barria might be the way to do it. Might the Mets, for example, consider a Syndergaard deal with Barria as the main component? Or the Marlins for Realmuto?

I'm all for it. There aren't many people on the team I wouldn't consider trading.

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