Jump to content
  • Welcome to AngelsWin.com

    AngelsWin.com - THE Internet Home for Angels fans! Unraveling Angels Baseball ... One Thread at a Time.

    Register today to join the most interactive online Angels community on the net!

    Once you're a member you'll see less advertisements. Become a Premium member and you won't see any ads! 

     

IGNORED

OC Register: Angels’ Mike Trout a longshot to win MVP, likely headed for another near-miss


AngelsWin.com

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Sean-Regan said:

Considering MLB seems utterly unwilling to give him any other award, he’ll probably lose out on that, too. 

Hilarious considering how much trouble the league says they have marketing their stars. Trout never gets in-season recognition with weekly/monthly player selections. He gets dumped on by the players’ choice awards, the writers, umpires (gets awful calls more than most, as far as I can tell, although I can’t find any data that measures that), and the managers (GG voting). Trout is by a healthy distance the best player in the game and you’d think he was just another all-star. 

Analysts like to pat themselves on the back for the advances they’ve made, but in twenty years the next generation is going to wonder how the heck Mike Trout only won 2 MVP’s instead of 6 by the age of 27. It’s a freaking joke. 

Think about what you just wrote.

He’s “only” won 2 MVPs in 7 chances. There are 450 players in the AL every year, and he’s managed to be beaten out by one - one! - of them four times, and you think it’s some tragedy. 

Also, there are more players in the majors now.

Only 9 players in history have won more than two, and Trout has won two and he’s 27. 

I think he’s doing OK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Think about what you just wrote.

He’s “only” won 2 MVPs in 7 chances. There are 450 players in the AL every year, and he’s managed to be beaten out by one - one! - of them four times, and you think it’s some tragedy. 

Also, there are more players in the majors now.

Only 9 players in history have won more than two, and Trout has won two and he’s 27. 

I think he’s doing OK.

From Trout's perspective? I doubt he cares. At all. He just wants to win a championship. 

From a baseball history perspective, though? 2 MVP's sounds great in a vacuum, but that ignores the context - which, in this case, is everything: 

2018: Best player offensively
- Analytics: Essentially a tie overall depending what you do with defense

2017: Only played 114 games; still finished 4th overall in WAR; had better rate stats (OBP, OPS, OPS+ wRC+, wOBA) than all three guys above him (still finished below Ramirez - probably due to playing 38 less games); 
- Everyone agreed Trout didn't play enough to win this year

2016: Won MVP with a relatively dominant WAR lead of 9.6 to 8.2 fWAR and 10.5 to 9.7 bWAR
- Yet only received 19 1st place votes and two writers placed him 5th and 7th
- Betts received 9 1st's, and Ortiz/Beltre each received 1

2015: Trout loses to Donaldson despite leading in WAR and rate stats
- Vote is Donaldson with 23 1st's, and Trout with 7

2014: Trout wins MVP unanimously in his worst full season in the majors, probably owing mostly to his higher power numbers
- There wasn't really anyone else particularly close that year

2013: Cabrera wins for the second straight year with 23 1st place votes to Trout's 5
- Again, Trout ends up with a 5th and a 7th for who knows what reason
- Analytics: This one was tougher than 2012; Miggy had an absurd 193 wRC+ to Trout's (still insanely good) 176; Cabrera hit for a higher average and a slightly better BB rate; Trout's WAR was higher, probably due to baserunning and defense
- It should've been at least a close vote (a coin flip, imo, depending on what you value more), but it wasn't (as per usual)

2012: Cabrera's Triple Crown carries him to 22 1st place votes to Trout's 6
- Analytics: Offensively, they're similar - Cabrera hit more bombs, but Trout's AVG/OBP are higher; their wRC+ is about equal, and while Cabrera wins on OPS, Trout's OPS+ beat Miggy slightly
- Given Cabrera's below average defense (although not as bad as Andujar) and baserunning (Trout excelled at both in 2012), offensive tie favors Trout decisively;
- WAR: 10.0 to 7.2 (fWAR) and 10.5 to 7.1 (bWAR)

To sum up, we have 
- A horrible vote in 2012
- A coin flip in 2013
- A good one for once (and the only time) in 2014
- A horribly lopsided voted in 2015 that probably should've gone Trout's way (was at worst another coin flip)
- What should've been as decisive a vote as this year (but wasn't) in 2016
- A relatively fair vote in 2017 (2/7)
- And another lopsided vote over what was effectively a tie this year


So, you tell me: Have the writers been remotely fair to Trout?

You say "He's 'only' won 2 MVP's in 7 chances" as if you guys should get a pat on the back, but the numbers say he should have *at least* three decisively, almost certainly a fourth, and a strong argument is there for six.

Trout has a higher WAR than any player up to his age has *ever* had. He routinely puts up 9 WAR seasons like it's nothing. His only full season that he missed that mark was in 2014. In his seven years in the league, how many guys have hit 9 WAR? Two:

Harper (2015), Betts (2015 - bWAR only; 2018)

We have never seen a roid-free (presumably) player like Trout in goodness knows how long. Pujols hit 9 WAR in 2003 (by Fangraphs calculations) and 2008-09 (by Baseball Reference). That's it. And he's arguably a top 5 all time hitter by his career.

Even with help, A-Roid only had 4 such seasons (by bWAR) for his career (or 6 per fWAR). Trout has 5 at age 27 (would be 6 if he wasn't hurt in 2017). That. Is. Insane. 

But sure, despite, being effectively the best player in 6/7 years, he has *2* MVP awards. If you're Mookie Betts who has only had 2 seasons at that level, 2 MVP's would be freaking fantastic. 

That's why context matters. And that's why 2, in Trout's case, is a black mark and a gigantic embarrassment. 

To be clear, I don't mean that personally against you - the only two votes of yours I'd quibble with at all were 2013 and 2018, but since both were essentially coin flips, I can't fault you too much for not voting Trout, even though I would've both times. 

As far as my assessment of Trout, the BBWAA, etc: You can disagree - it doesn't matter to me - we're both entitled to our individual opinions. But given how this generation already looks down on the backwards thinking of previous decades, I honestly don't believe posterity will look at Trout's two wins as favorably as you seem to. I could be wrong. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Trout should have won in 2012 and 2015, but in both cases I don’t believe it’s egregious that he didn’t.

In 2012 Miggy won the triple crown on a playoff team and in 15 Trout had a bad second half and the Donaldson finished strong for a playoff team. He was victimized by the way the voting had been conducted for 50 years. That’s changing. Lots of other guys have been victimized by the same thing. It’s  not like Trout has been singled out. 

I think Trout finished in the right place in 13, 14, 16, 17 and 18. Three years in a row he’s finished in the right place. The voting is getting better. 

Edited by Jeff Fletcher
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/16/2018 at 1:56 PM, AngelsLakersFan said:

It has to be something of a black eye on the award when Trout has been consistently the best player in the league for 7 years and one of his two mvps came in his worst season.

I just hate the way that certain criteria the voters use seem to be more important in some years and lesser so in others.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

It's all about the #narrative 

I hate that angle. Many members of the media like "narrative" because it gives them something to talk or write about.  Dan Patrick does it a lot.  While I don't think it is a tragedy that Trout only has two MVP awards, I do think these things hurt his legacy a bit that he has fewer than he should  In 30 years, some will point to that when comparing him to his peers and players that came before and after him.

Mike Trout won't publicly complain about not winning awards... and I'm sure he wants his team to win more than he wants more MVP awards... but he's also talked for years about wanting to be the best.  Individually.  The awards certainly matter to an extent 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, ScottT said:

I hate that angle. Many members of the media like "narrative" because it gives them something to talk or write about.  Dan Patrick does it a lot.  While I don't think it is a tragedy that Trout only has two MVP awards, I do think these things hurt his legacy a bit that he has fewer than he should  In 30 years, some will point to that when comparing him to his peers and players that came before and after him.

Mike Trout won't publicly complain about not winning awards... and I'm sure he wants his team to win more than he wants more MVP awards... but he's also talked for years about wanting to be the best.  Individually.  The awards certainly matter to an extent 

A championship will mean a lot more than an MVP to Trout. The only comparison that will be made is that despite being the best in the league for X amount of years he produced no playoff wins let alone championships. "Why wasn't he able to get his team to the promise land" I personally hate that angle but it does exist. I understand that baseball is a team sport more than any other given that its the only sport that doesn't allow its best players to be thrust into a crucial moments, but he will need to start competing on the big stage to cement his national and historic legacy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...