Zack Greinke?

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

another thing to keep in mind - we might be on his no-trade list of teams 

I hope so.  Taking on that salary just feels like a really bad idea.  

[totdprods]

39 minutes ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

You do realize that he is already 35 years old and is owed $95.5 million over the next three seasons, right?

Yes, but you’re comparing him to someone who is struggling to be league average, and he’s consistently producing well above league-average. Not quite the same. Yet.

[totdprods]

53 minutes ago, Lou said:

why would they throw in Ray? that would mean the lose 4 starters from their 2018 rotation 

Again, it’s not that Ray is a thrown in. Its more likely a deal would look like Suarez and Ward for Ray...

...and 30 mil plus Greinke. His inclusion is more of the catalyst to close the value difference. Dollars and prospects involved would vary on how much money is being exchanged and the value of the non-Greinke player the Angels are receiving. 

[totdprods]

52 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

It's so tough to assume that he'll continue to produce at that level now that he's 35.  Especially considering his consistent velo decline over the last 4 years.  Even if they throw in 30m and we pay 25m per for 3 years.  That means he's making 25m from us at age 37.  I've gotta pass on that.  What he's likely to be over the next 3 years probably costs about 10m less per year on the open market.  

You’re absolutely correct. He might sputter out, he may produce above average one more year, average the second, and fall apart the third. Hence the Angels working another player, or two, of value into the deal. 

No doubt Year Two of Three would be risky as hell. The goal is to get another piece for fair or under value, and get a Greinke down to an expensive add who may still be worth it for half the duration. 

Most other frontline trade SPs are gonna cost more in prospects, or won’t come with a second helpful player. Most FA SPs? Corbin, Keuchel, Eovaldi? You can’t say they aren’t any less risky or cheap in their 3rd, 4th, or 5th years in their pending deals.

I’m not saying he’s the perfect solution, the safest solution, the best solution...just a possible solution based on many variables. Compared to other frontline starters, he may come with less commitment or cost, equivalent risk, and he has a better track record than any current FA SP.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

You’re absolutely correct. He might sputter out, he may produce above average one more year, average the second, and fall apart the third. Hence the Angels working another player, or two, of value into the deal. 

No doubt Year Two of Three would be risky as hell. The goal is to get another piece for fair or under value, and get a Greinke down to an expensive add who may still be worth it for half the duration. 

Most other frontline trade SPs are gonna cost more in prospects, or won’t come with a second helpful player. Most FA SPs? Corbin, Keuchel, Eovaldi? You can’t say they aren’t any less risky or cheap in their 3rd, 4th, or 5th years in their pending deals.

but to assume he's front line going forward is where I have a problem.  

[totdprods]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

but to assume he's front line going forward is where I have a problem.  

For 2019 there seems to be a good chance.

[34red4]

I don’t believe it’s been noted on here, but part of Greinke’s salary is deferred to 2022-2026. He only receives $21 million per year through 2021.

“...the deal includes salaries of $31 million in each of the first three seasons, $31.5 million in 2019 and $32 million in each of the final two years. But he will receive $21 million of the money during each season, with the remainder deferred.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/77077480

[34red4]

Greinke is owed $104.5 million from the Diamondback. $95.5 million after the $9 million in signing bonus still owed by them.

If Arizona covered the $2 million trade assignment bonus + $15 million more, and we only need to send back a package of Jose Suarez + Brennon Lund, would you do it? 

2019-2021: $21 million per year

2022-2026: $17.5 million total (After $15 million from Arizona)

”3 year” / $80.5 million is much more intriguing with money deferred this way.

I don’t think Arizona will eat anymore money without receiving more from the Angels in return.

[Docwaukee]

16 minutes ago, Jinzu said:

Greinke is owed $104.5 million from the Diamondback. $95.5 million after the $9 million in signing bonus still owed by them.

If Arizona covered the $2 million trade assignment bonus + $15 million more, and we only need to send back a package of Jose Suarez + Brennon Lund, would you do it? 

2019-2021: $21 million per year

2022-2026: $17.5 million total (After $15 million from Arizona)

”3 year” / $80.5 million is much more intriguing with money deferred this way.

I don’t think Arizona will eat anymore money without receiving more from the Angels in return.

if the Halos truly intend to spend no more than 30m this year, then we have to fill the rest of our holes with 9m.  It's intriguing but I think we'd be hard pressed to field a truly competitive team for that little.  

Also, considering that there is money deferred, I would imagine that Ari would be looking for someone to take on the entire amount. 

But thanks for posting that additional info.  It certainly makes the concept more interesting.  

[totdprods]

Greinke's currently having his best season arguably since 2015, when he finished 2nd in Cy Young voting. 

Through 14 GS, he has a 2.87 ERA, 154 ERA+, 3.39 FIP, 0.94 WHIP, 3.1 WAR....in 87.2 IP, 68 hits, 11 HR, 14 BB, 82 K. 

I know he's owed a ton the next two years, and is 35 years old, but if Arizona ate enough money that it didn't cost an arm and a leg, he'd still be someone on my radar. 
Maybe they eat Cozart's remaining money, or take a few mil off each of his next two seasons, maybe both, and the Angels kick back something that doesn't kill them, anything from, at most, one of Ward (shiny prospect) to Jones (lotto tickett prospect) to Barria (cheap, controllable MLB asset) or a duo/trio of low-level lotto tickets (Rivas, Pina, Hunter).

It'd be expensive, but couple it with a signing like Cole and the Angels could roll into 2020 with Greinke, Cole, Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Canning as their 6-man rotation. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by totdprods

[PattyD22]

23 minutes ago, Randy Gradishar said:

He can go look like an emu with Jimmy Clausen.

Dopplegangers.

[disarcina]

been there, done that, he left us and we could not/ would not afford his contract back when so why now all these years later? Pass.

Greinke was a total bust deal for us --- we got him as a rental, I think we gave up some good player(s) -- he had some sort of (relatively minor) arm issue when he first came over to the Halos and missed what should have been his first Halo start and then got the next one pushed back a day or two -- we got him for the stretch run, the year we did acquire him (it's on his MLB career listing, I've forgotten what year it was now) and by the time of his delayed first Halo start, the Angels had lost a few critical games and had fallen to something like 6 to 7 games behind and the Halos' playoff chances were pretty much done.........Greinke did not pitch that well the first game and then do better on his next outings but by then the Halos were done and Greinke had already mentally moved on realizing he wouldn't be signing with the Angels long term.  So we ended up having him as a short term rental at a point when the season was pretty much over for us. He walked out of the clubhouse at season's end never to return in a Halos' uni.

Aside from all that -- never been a big Greinke fan (lot of DL/IR time/ missed starts) and now his velocity is down.

[totdprods]

16 minutes ago, disarcina said:

been there, done that, he left us and we could not/ would not afford his contract back when so why now all these years later? Pass.

Greinke was a total bust deal for us --- we got him as a rental, I think we gave up some good player(s) -- he had some sort of (relatively minor) arm issue when he first came over to the Halos and missed what should have been his first Halo start and then got the next one pushed back a day or two -- we got him for the stretch run, the year we did acquire him (it's on his MLB career listing, I've forgotten what year it was now) and by the time of his delayed first Halo start, the Angels had lost a few critical games and had fallen to something like 6 to 7 games behind and the Halos' playoff chances were pretty much done.........Greinke did not pitch that well the first game and then do better on his next outings but by then the Halos were done and Greinke had already mentally moved on realizing he wouldn't be signing with the Angels long term.  So we ended up having him as a short term rental at a point when the season was pretty much over for us. He walked out of the clubhouse at season's end never to return in a Halos' uni.

Aside from all that -- never been a big Greinke fan (lot of DL/IR time/ missed starts) and now his velocity is down.

I don’t remember Greinke missing any time with the Angels. Are you thinking Kazmir? He was traded 7/27, made his first start 7/29, and didn’t go more than 4-6 calendar days between starts...

He’s also thrown 200+ innings and made 32 starts in 4 of the last 5 years, (159 and 26 GS the one year he didn’t) and in 8 of the last 11 years. And in those other two years, he made 28 GS/170 IP. I don’t think we’ve had a single pitcher do that in like 4 years. Maybe Nolasco? A bit hyperbole from me. Of all the things you could poke at Greinke for, durability and missing starts seems a weird choice.

Edited June 13, 2019 by totdprods

[Lou]

Greinke tonight:

7.1 IP

2 H

0 ER

 

[Lou]

Just read that he had a no-hitter through 6 innings on 59 pitches lol

[red321]

Would love to see Greinke relief for one of Bedrosian’s starts. 

[disarcina]

greinke is pitching well this year - still not a guy at the top of my list. oh well.

[m0nkey]

3 hours ago, Lou said:

Just read that he had a no-hitter through 6 innings on 59 pitches lol

Same

[PattyD22]

6 hours ago, m0nkey said:

Same

Bullshit

[wopphil]

18 hours ago, totdprods said:

Greinke's currently having his best season arguably since 2015, when he finished 2nd in Cy Young voting. 

Through 14 GS, he has a 2.87 ERA, 154 ERA+, 3.39 FIP, 0.94 WHIP, 3.1 WAR....in 87.2 IP, 68 hits, 11 HR, 14 BB, 82 K. 

I know he's owed a ton the next two years, and is 35 years old, but if Arizona ate enough money that it didn't cost an arm and a leg, he'd still be someone on my radar. 
Maybe they eat Cozart's remaining money, or take a few mil off each of his next two seasons, maybe both, and the Angels kick back something that doesn't kill them, anything from, at most, one of Ward (shiny prospect) to Jones (lotto tickett prospect) to Barria (cheap, controllable MLB asset) or a duo/trio of low-level lotto tickets (Rivas, Pina, Hunter).

It'd be expensive, but couple it with a signing like Cole and the Angels could roll into 2020 with Greinke, Cole, Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Canning as their 6-man rotation. 

Greinke makes more sense for the Angels to target than any pitcher in baseball. The combination of his salary and age suggest the price tag might be achievable.

That being said, I think he has increased his trade value to the point that the DBacks won't have to eat much of the contract and the acquiring team would have to part with legit talent. Something along the lines of Marsh and Suarez for Greinke and a few mil in salary relief (perhaps they take on Cozart's contract).

[DMVol]

2 hours ago, wopphil said:

Greinke makes more sense for the Angels to target than any pitcher in baseball. The combination of his salary and age suggest the price tag might be achievable.

That being said, I think he has increased his trade value to the point that the DBacks won't have to eat much of the contract and the acquiring team would have to part with legit talent. Something along the lines of Marsh and Suarez for Greinke and a few mil in salary relief (perhaps they take on Cozart's contract).

Pretty good evaluation....but it's a lot of money to take on, even if Arizona takes on Cozart and eats some of Greinke's contract...It does remind me somewhat of getting Upton in 2017.....he had an opt out that greatly reduced his value but it was still getting a very good player at a cheap price.....didn't give up a great prospect.....difference with Greinke would be taking on a bunch of money, although we knew we wanted to keep Upton and would commit to a lot of money, as it turned out by revamping the deal....that's assuming Arizona would be amenable to that....they might want to eat money and get a good prospect or two...

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Pretty good evaluation....but it's a lot of money to take on, even if they take Cozart and eat some of Greinke's contract...

He’d cost around the same as Cahill and Harvey, and only for two more years. At his age, yeah, it could go south fast, but he’s producing close to vintage Greinke. Even if he regressed to a 3.75 - 4.50 ERA over those last two years, if he stayed healthy and ate innings it’d be a win. Possible good mentor for young guys too. 

Greinke and Bumgarner both seem like guys where someone like Taylor Ward would be a decent starting piece - there’s a lot of boom/bust potential for Ward, he hasn’t shown much in the bigs, but still could become a pretty good player, and the Angels have some depth to absorb his loss. 

Verlander, Sabathia, Scherzer...sometimes these older pitchers know how to hang on. I feel Greinke fits that mold and would be a safe bet for the next couple years. 

Edited June 14, 2019 by totdprods

[red321]

Greinke would be a great addition to the staff, a staff that is Griffen Canning and a bunch of bottom of the rotation guys.

The challenge is the cost, and not just in players, and not even necessarily this year, but the next two years. Realistically the Angels are playing for a second wild card this year and is Greinke really the piece that is going to make them a legit world series contender (he isn't...they need at least 1 and probably 2 more legit starters). So, the question then becomes, is the 30+ million/year you sink into Greinke in the next few years worth it or can you better spend that money on other starters who have the potential to be just as productive, and cheaper/better investments.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, red321 said:

Greinke would be a great addition to the staff, a staff that is Griffen Canning and a bunch of bottom of the rotation guys.

The challenge is the cost, and not just in players, and not even necessarily this year, but the next two years. Realistically the Angels are playing for a second wild card this year and is Greinke really the piece that is going to make them a legit world series contender (he isn't...they need at least 1 and probably 2 more legit starters). So, the question then becomes, is the 30+ million/year you sink into Greinke in the next few years worth it or can you better spend that money on other starters who have the potential to be just as productive, and cheaper/better investments.

I’d only consider if they are money/contracts that brought him closer to $20-22m, $25m tops, each year. 

Considering we dropped nearly $30m this year for Harvey, Cahill, and Allen, that doesn’t feel too bad. He wouldn’t totally kill payroll, but I hear you in that he’d still eat up an uneasy chunk of it. 

FWIW, I still think the Angels could put together a pretty sizable offer and try to pry away Greinke *and* Ray and save enough money to keep things from being too clogged, but there’d be a couple names we’d flinch on. Probably more of a win-now move than worth doing though, but it could shore up the rotation in a hurry. 

[red321]

12 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I’d only consider if they are money/contracts that brought him closer to $20-22m, $25m tops, each year. 

Considering we dropped nearly $30m this year for Harvey, Cahill, and Allen, that doesn’t feel too bad. He wouldn’t totally kill payroll, but I hear you in that he’d still eat up an uneasy chunk of it. 

FWIW, I still think the Angels could put together a pretty sizable offer and try to pry away Greinke *and* Ray and save enough money to keep things from being too clogged, but there’d be a couple names we’d flinch on. Probably more of a win-now move than worth doing though, but it could shore up the rotation in a hurry. 

exactly...and this team has too many holes at this point for a win now type of move. If the Halos were at the end of a window with aging players, one last shot before a long rebuild...that's fine...this team isn't.