Seattle considering full rebuild...

[Tank]

On 11/6/2018 at 9:19 AM, Inside Pitch said:

Passan may be reaching.   Jerry saying he would be willing to move just about anyone is par for the course....   Dude would trade his Grandma for a platoon 1B.

i hear david segui is still in pretty decent shape . . .

plus he's got the whole left-handed-firstbaseman thing going on so it's easier to catch pickoff throws.

[floplag]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

It isn't about this flop.  It is about finding a sustainable way to compete.  Those teams built from within, which is what the Angels are doing right now.  The Yankees and Red Sox use free agency to supplement the team not to build it.  Houston traded talent to get guys that put them over the top, guys like Verlander to get them over the top last year, and Cole this past off season.  They didn't get those guys 2-3 years ago when they were building.  They are finishing pieces.  Sale was acquired last year.  Stanton was acquired this year.  The Yankees hadn't signed a big name free agent since Chapman and Tanaka.  Their entire infield and outfield were home grown or acquired with trades.  Building a team that way gives you more money to finish your team off.  Its about making the right moves at the right time.  The Angels might sign a pitcher to a 4-5 year contract if it is Keuchel, but if they don't sign him, my guess is no one gets more than 2 years, because no one is worth it.  Also it really isn't the time to decimate the farm system (which I know you haven't advocated) to fill the holes, because if you make those trades the payroll goes way up and you no longer will have guys that can come up from the minors and contribute at league minimum to offset the high priced players you have on the team.  Not to mention no team is trading cheap, valuable players with 4-5 years of club control.  So if you acquire these guys by trading the farm you are also shortening your window to compete.  I personally think with a few smart moves and health they can compete for a wild card spot next year and they can do this without shortening the competitive window.  Obviously this is simply my opinion.  

Strad, we dont agree on many things, but i thought at least you knew i was smart enough or had enough respect to know i understand that.  

What i disagree with in all that, and ill ask both you and @Dochalosince you both played the "right time" card today, when exactly is that?  

Weve talked about Hou window, and we both agree that its closing on them, they simply cant keep everyone as they get too expensive, noone can, now is when that window is starting to close a little, they are losing a lot of pitching this next year.    Neither one of us really thinks Oak is all that good, just had an amazing year.  There really isnt much else of note in the AL aside from the obvious teams so... whats wrong with now?  

[Tank]

On 11/6/2018 at 10:18 AM, Dochalo said:

Felix is toast and has 2/34 with a 1m option for 2020 which make it 3/35.  If he can find some mojo, that could be tradeable. 

bullpen, maybe convert him to closer?

i gotta think a guy with his stuff could still pitch an effective inning pretty regularly.

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

Strad, we dont agree on many things, but i thought at least you knew i was smart enough or had enough respect to know i understand that.  

What i disagree with in all that, and ill ask both you and @Dochalosince you both played the "right time" card today, when exactly is that?  

Weve talked about Hou window, and we both agree that its closing on them, they simply cant keep everyone as they get too expensive, noone can, now is when that window is starting to close a little, they are losing a lot of pitching this next year.    Neither one of us really thinks Oak is all that good, just had an amazing year.  There really isnt much else of note in the AL aside from the obvious teams so... whats wrong with now?  

Nothing wrong with now as long as we don't mortgage the future for now.  So I wouldn't trade our top guys for two years of control guys.  If we could get deGrom or Realumto without giving up Adell or Canning then sign me up.  But that isn't likely.  I would be fine with Ramos and Keuchel or Donaldson and Gio and then make some smart trades that get us our catcher of the future.  Hell I wouldn't mind if they signed Ramos, or Suzuki, Keuchel and Gio, and Donaldon and Murphy.   

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Nothing wrong with now as long as we don't mortgage the future for now.  So I wouldn't trade our top guys for two years of control guys.  If we could get deGrom or Realumto without giving up Adell or Canning then sign me up.  But that isn't likely.  I would be fine with Ramos and Keuchel or Donaldson and Gio and then make some smart trades that get us our catcher of the future.  Hell I wouldn't mind if they signed Ramos, or Suzuki, Keuchel and Gio, and Donaldon and Murphy.   

It comes down to are they willing to spend over the threshold to exploit the opportunity.  I dont think they are, and that frustrates me.  We could easily be in the post next year, without losing anything on the farm, and buying the time for them to arrive to sustain it, if we were only willing.

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Strad, we dont agree on many things, but i thought at least you knew i was smart enough or had enough respect to know i understand that.  

What i disagree with in all that, and ill ask both you and @Dochalosince you both played the "right time" card today, when exactly is that?  

Weve talked about Hou window, and we both agree that its closing on them, they simply cant keep everyone as they get too expensive, noone can, now is when that window is starting to close a little, they are losing a lot of pitching this next year.    Neither one of us really thinks Oak is all that good, just had an amazing year.  There really isnt much else of note in the AL aside from the obvious teams so... whats wrong with now?  

It's quite simple.  You have to have home grown, cheap talent making significant contributions at the major league level.  

Here's part of the nit though.  We've been rebuilding, but not tanking and of course we've got a limited budget.  So it's kinda ass-backward.  Where other teams wait for the farm to start to contribute and then start spending, we have essentially 'pre-spent' the FA money normally used to fill those gaps.  What that's done is to give us some semblance of competitiveness or at least the perception of such.  

Houston is losing some pitching but their big losses will come after 2019.  They do, however, have a stable of high end arms in the their farm system though so they'll be in the mix still but perhaps not the juggernaut they are right now.  

If I had to guess, our time will start in 2021 but some important stuff needs to happen like extending Trout and probably Simmons.  Some of the farm talent has to contribute.  Not all.  And because we all know that prospects are anything but sure, you need to keep your high end depth.  As an example, who knows which of Fletcher, Rengifo, or Jones will work out if any of them.  I am sure one of them will but which one?  Don't trade the wrong one.  So you need to find out which and then hope the others stay good enough to maintain their trade value.  

A more simple answer to your question of 'when exactly?' is I have no freakin' clue but not now.  

 

 

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

It comes down to are they willing to spend over the threshold to exploit the opportunity.  I dont think they are, and that frustrates me.  We could easily be in the post next year, without losing anything on the farm, and buying the time for them to arrive to sustain it, if we were only willing.

Ok, I disagree that that is what is best because of the quality of free agents available.  I don’t want Machado, I can’t see them signing Harper.  Not to mention there would have to be mutual interest, because we can’t really outbid a team that has an extremely low payroll.  We aren’t outbidding NY for Corbin, and everything points to him wanting to be there.  I like our chances of signing Keuchel, but if you were him would you sign with the Angels or would you go back to the Astros if they want to keep him?  Is Eovaldi the answer?  He has an ERA over 4 for his career.  The Braves are closer than the Angels and they appear to want to sign Kimbrel.  It isn’t an easy task.  It isn’t like they can simply go to the FA store and pick these guys off the shelf.  

[floplag]

Just now, Dochalo said:

It's quite simple.  You have to have home grown, cheap talent making significant contributions at the major league level.  

Here's part of the nit though.  We've been rebuilding, but not tanking and of course we've got a limited budget.  So it's kinda ass-backward.  Where other teams wait for the farm to start to contribute and then start spending, we have essentially 'pre-spent' the FA money normally used to fill those gaps.  What that's done is to give us some semblance of competitiveness or at least the perception of such.  

Houston is losing some pitching but their big losses will come after 2019.  They do, however, have a stable of high end arms in the their farm system though so they'll be in the mix still but perhaps not the juggernaut they are right now.  

If I had to guess, our time will start in 2021 but some important stuff needs to happen like extending Trout and probably Simmons.  Some of the farm talent has to contribute.  Not all.  And because we all know that prospects are anything but sure, you need to keep your high end depth.  As an example, who knows which of Fletcher, Rengifo, or Jones will work out if any of them.  I am sure one of them will but which one?  Don't trade the wrong one.  So you need to find out which and then hope the others stay good enough to maintain their trade value.  

A more simple answer to your question of 'when exactly?' is I have no freakin' clue but not now.  

 

 

In 21 Trout/Simmons/Cozart/Cowart are all possibly gone. Albert in last your, Upton one more to go, effectively our core is gone.  Even if they arent gone they are 3 years older.   So youre going back into FA then assuming all the kids are everything you hope?

[Stradling]

Just now, floplag said:

In 21 Trout/Simmons/Cozart/Cowart are all possibly gone. Albert in last your, Upton one more to go, effectively our core is gone.  Even if they arent gone they are 3 years older.   So youre going back into FA then assuming all the kids are everything you hope?

Or you could go all in like you are suggesting by spending over the threshold and Trout and Simmons both leave and you have an expensive team without a real star.  

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

It comes down to are they willing to spend over the threshold to exploit the opportunity.  I dont think they are, and that frustrates me.  We could easily be in the post next year, without losing anything on the farm, and buying the time for them to arrive to sustain it, if we were only willing.

I 100% agree with  additional parameters of not handcuffing payroll or blocking whoever turns out to be our best prospects when they're ready.  

If I'm hedging my bets, that's why I would try to get Donaldson for a couple years.  He's far from a safe bet but he could really make a difference.  Maybe that blocks Ward for a bit but then you have him in case Donaldson doesn't stay healthy.  I wouldn't go after a 2bman as then you've got Cozart, Fletcher, Rengifo and Jones.  That's plenty of depth there.  Catcher you stop gap for the next 2-3 years because we've got no one.  I think one of Adell or Marsh will be good to go in RF.  1b you may need to supplement.  

I like the bullpen potential and it's getting better.  If you have to supplement with a closer at some point then so be it.  

As far as the rotation is concerned, that's where I'm most concerned for the future.  We don't have anywhere near the depth in the minors as we do on the position player side of things.  We'll probably need a little good fortune there.  In the meantime, grab a couple of solid free agents.  

[Troll Daddy]

Fake News ... per Dipoto 

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

In 21 Trout/Simmons/Cozart/Cowart are all possibly gone. Albert in last your, Upton one more to go, effectively our core is gone.  Even if they arent gone they are 3 years older.   So youre going back into FA then assuming all the kids are everything you hope?

my assumption is Trout and Simmons staying.  If Trout leaves, you've pushed things back a decent amount unless you can somehow grab some massive bounty for him in trade but you'll never get what he's worth.  

(lol.  did you reference Cowart being gone? why?)

[floplag]

10 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

my assumption is Trout and Simmons staying.  If Trout leaves, you've pushed things back a decent amount unless you can somehow grab some massive bounty for him in trade but you'll never get what he's worth.  

(lol.  did you reference Cowart being gone? why?)

That was supposed to be Calhoun, my bad, lol 

[floplag]

10 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

my assumption is Trout and Simmons staying.  If Trout leaves, you've pushed things back a decent amount unless you can somehow grab some massive bounty for him in trade but you'll never get what he's worth.  

(lol.  did you reference Cowart being gone? why?)

i wish i had your confidence both in them and that all the kids pan out, after all the recent cant miss guys we all overvalued i guess im just too jaded for that.   I think we need to give those guys a reason to want to stay aside from faith that things will get better on the other side of 30. 

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Ok, I disagree that that is what is best because of the quality of free agents available.  I don’t want Machado, I can’t see them signing Harper.  Not to mention there would have to be mutual interest, because we can’t really outbid a team that has an extremely low payroll.  We aren’t outbidding NY for Corbin, and everything points to him wanting to be there.  I like our chances of signing Keuchel, but if you were him would you sign with the Angels or would you go back to the Astros if they want to keep him?  Is Eovaldi the answer?  He has an ERA over 4 for his career.  The Braves are closer than the Angels and they appear to want to sign Kimbrel.  It isn’t an easy task.  It isn’t like they can simply go to the FA store and pick these guys off the shelf.  

I don't want them either.  Sure it would be fun but not what i had in mind.
I wont bother re-listing the names, you've seen my suggestions, all i'm saying is that for a little more money we could get you your pitching and me my offense, likely make the playoffs and give Trout/Simmons reasons to stick it out.   
Checks all the boxes, makes perfect sense, not likely to happen

[ten ocho recon scout]

15 minutes ago, floplag said:

That was supposed to be Calhoun, my bad, lol 

No worries. I think they were about tied for home runs per at bat last year. Easy mistake.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

bullpen, maybe convert him to closer?

i gotta think a guy with his stuff could still pitch an effective inning pretty regularly.

His stuff is gone.... His FB sits 88-91 now, and averages 90....  It's actually his worst pitch these days...   When he can't spot his curve he's pretty much DOA.

[Tank]

4 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

His stuff is gone.... His FB sits 88-91 now, and averages 90....  It's actually his worst pitch these days...   When he can't spot his curve he's pretty much DOA.

whoa, i hadn't heard any of that.

besides, i don't think we'd be able to sign him until after he has TJS.

[Docwaukee]

6 hours ago, floplag said:

I don't want them either.  Sure it would be fun but not what i had in mind.
I wont bother re-listing the names, you've seen my suggestions, all i'm saying is that for a little more money we could get you your pitching and me my offense, likely make the playoffs and give Trout/Simmons reasons to stick it out.   
Checks all the boxes, makes perfect sense, not likely to happen

we could totally expand payroll on a series of 1-2 year deals that would make for much better teams in 2019 and 2020.  There are no luxury tax repercussions to worry about.  Arte would have to take money out of his own pocket.  If you're Arte though, does being better make the team good enough to compete with the best teams out there?  

Your comment that other teams are folding up shop to some degree and letting the big dogs go after each other has some merit actually.  

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, Tank said:

whoa, i hadn't heard any of that.

besides, i don't think we'd be able to sign him until after he has TJS.

He has basically gone the Weaver route the last three years....  A total loss of stuff.

[floplag]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

we could totally expand payroll on a series of 1-2 year deals that would make for much better teams in 2019 and 2020.  There are no luxury tax repercussions to worry about.  Arte would have to take money out of his own pocket.  If you're Arte though, does being better make the team good enough to compete with the best teams out there?  

Your comment that other teams are folding up shop to some degree and letting the big dogs go after each other has some merit actually.  

I doubt its out of his pocket per se, the team has to be making enough to cover the difference in revenue once again hitting 3M etc... though yes it would be over the usual levels and eat into said revenue, but i dont think anyone believes this organization cant afford that, do they?.

Is it good enough?  That would depend entirely on the moves i think.  The potential to be is certainly there.  We have a great core just missing the complementary parts. 

I do believe thats what many are doing. some more obviously than others.  Its not all bad though as I also believe some others have just been biding time and are about to go ham due to the big picture of where they are right now and take advantage of that "windows" we talk about.  I could easily see Phi going ham for example and a couple other possible dark horses in other divisions.

Added:  i just feel like it fish or cut bait time.  Either do what it takes, or start moving people for near ML ready talent if the goal is really to compete in 21 and blow off the next 2 years.  We can only have it both ways if they are willing to spend, if they are not, then the alternative is obvious. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

I doubt its out of his pocket per se, the team has to be making enough to cover the difference in revenue once again hitting 3M etc... though yes it would be over the usual levels and eat into said revenue, but i dont think anyone believes this organization cant afford that, do they?.

Is it good enough?  That would depend entirely on the moves i think.  The potential to be is certainly there.  We have a great core just missing the complementary parts. 

I do believe thats what many are doing. some more obviously than others.  Its not all bad though as I also believe some others have just been biding time and are about to go ham due to the big picture of where they are right now and take advantage of that "windows" we talk about.  I could easily see Phi going ham for example and a couple other possible dark horses in other divisions.

Added:  i just feel like it fish or cut bait time.  Either do what it takes, or start moving people for near ML ready talent if the goal is really to compete in 21 and blow off the next 2 years.  We can only have it both ways if they are willing to spend, if they are not, then the alternative is obvious. 

as fans, that's what makes sense, but I bet Arte feels pretty good about the spot he's in.  He's still making a profit (I would imagine) and Eppler is building for the future while at least putting together a team that has the perception of being competitive coming out of spring.  Therefore, maintaining fan interest.  Arte is riding the Trout wave.  

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

as fans, that's what makes sense, but I bet Arte feels pretty good about the spot he's in.  He's still making a profit (I would imagine) and Eppler is building for the future while at least putting together a team that has the perception of being competitive coming out of spring.  Therefore, maintaining fan interest.  Arte is riding the Trout wave.  

If thats his thinking, he better get that extension done awful damned fast then.  If we toss the next couple years and lose Trout/Simmons for virtually nothing, that well dries up awful fast.
Im still unconvinced about us suddenly being contenders in 21, it assumes far too much and ignores what is right in front of us.

[Lou]

Trout isn't going anywhere 

[Angel Oracle]

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2019 starting Seattle shortstop...