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Seattle considering full rebuild...


T.G.

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I am actually kinda bummed about this to be honest.  I was hoping they would continue to let anything of value expire over the course of the next 2-3 years while they expand payroll, further deplete the farm and hover around mediocrity.  

Most teams sell off major league talent way too late.  He's not exactly early to the party with this new direction, but there are some assets there for him to move at this point.  The problem with most of those assets is that they're attached to significant money.  

Cano isn't going anywhere with his recent PED bust and 5/120 left

Felix is toast and has 2/34 with a 1m option for 2020 which make it 3/35.  If he can find some mojo, that could be tradeable. 

Seager is entering age 31 season and just came off his worst year.  He's owed 3/58 plus a buyout of 0-3m so he's at 3/60.  That's probably not moveable in it's current form unless it's a complete dump or they eat some.  

Leake has 2/36 left and entering age 31 with 4.36 era.  Cards are paying 9 of that over the next two years though so 2/27 which is about his market value. They'll still have to eat some money to get anything of value.  

Segura - entering age 29 season and owed about 4/60.  Very good asset here.  He'll get a nice return here.  

Gordon - entering age 31.  They neutered his value by putting him in CF, but another team can still use him at 2b.  Highly overrated imo and still owed 2/28.  He'll get something, but probably nothing spectacular.  

Nicasio - a mess in 2018 and owed 9.25 for 2019

LeBlanc had a nice 2018 but he's entering 34.  Can't see him getting much here.  

Paxton - two years of arb left.  he'll get a very good return. 

Others are controlled for a bit but not sure how much value there is in guys like Zunino, Healy, Heredia, Gamel.

He's also got some decent relievers to work with.  

 

 

 

 

 



 

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9 minutes ago, red321 said:

Dude should be running toilet seat cushion night for the Hudson Valley Ramblers for his next gig

Hey! It's the Hudson Valley Renegades. Don't be disrespecting them. My great-nephew pitched for them last year. They won the NY-Penn League with a pretty good team. And I'm sure that Tampa Bay organization doesn't want anything to do with 'Jerry D.' either.

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while MS is gone, I don't think Jerry is going to be striking any trades with us any time soon.  What it does though is add additional supply to the market which could lower some prices in free agency if he can help teams meet their needs who we'd otherwise be competing with.  

the one thing Jerry is halfway decent at is turning established players into near major league ready talent.  He did a nice job of that in the Haninger/Segura for Marte/Walker trade.  Although that sample size is pretty small.  Kendrick for Heaney was decent considering he was in his walk year.  The Trumbo trade was pretty good.  He got Frieri for essentially nothing.  

Going to be interesting as to what he targets.  My guess is that it'll be guys that can help within the next 1, 2, 3 years and not talent that's 4-5 years away.  

 

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3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

while MS is gone, I don't think Jerry is going to be striking any trades with us any time soon.  What it does though is add additional supply to the market which could lower some prices in free agency if he can help teams meet their needs who we'd otherwise be competing with.  

the one thing Jerry is halfway decent at is turning established players into near major league ready talent.  He did a nice job of that in the Haninger/Segura for Marte/Walker trade.  Although that sample size is pretty small.  Kendrick for Heaney was decent considering he was in his walk year.  The Trumbo trade was pretty good.  He got Frieri for essentially nothing.  

Going to be interesting as to what he targets.  My guess is that it'll be guys that can help within the next 1, 2, 3 years and not talent that's 4-5 years away.  

 

Or he will look for guys with high floors and high suck ass potential.

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One thing I know about Dipoto led teams, they have so many leaks that they actually adjust and start leaking things to the media purposely.  IT happened after Jerry left, made sure the media spinned it as Arte and Scioscia's fault.

Jerry Dipoto is probably the last person on Earth that I'd want to be in charge of a rebuild.  Just terrible at his job.  He'd be great as a team's PR rep though. 

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Just looking at the roster, who exactly is both moveable and actually net something of value in a trade:

Dee Gordon - Signed through 2020 at $27.1 million over those two seasons.  Has a $14 million team option in 2021 with a $1 million buyout.  He put up .268 .288 .637 OPS 79 OPS+, only walked 9 times (!) in 588 plate appearances 30/12 in SB/CS.  He's pretty bad.  He's have to be given away for nothing with Seattle eating some salary.  He'll likely stay.

Ryon Healy - Not yet arb eligible and will not be a FA until 2023.  Hit .235 .277 .688 OPS 91 OPS+ - 0.6 WAR.  For a 1B, that's pretty bad.  Might get something but not much.

Mike Zunino - Arb eligible in 2019, FA in 2021.  Seems to be a good defensive catcher who has power but regress to .201 .259 .669 OPS after some good offensive numbers in 2017/2018.  They could get something but not much.

Jean Segura - Signed through 2022 at $14.85 Million per season, 2023 Team Option for 2023 $17 million with $1 Million buyout.  Hit .304 .341 .755 OPS 1112 OPS+ 20/11 SB/CS 4.3 WAR.  Definitely moveable...signed through his prime years has been highly productive his last three seasons.  Might be their biggest chip.

Kyle Seager - Signed through 2021 at $19.5, $19.5, and 18.5 respectively with a 2022 $15 mil team option (that could increase to $20 mil) and a buyout that could range from $0 - $3 million.  Has seen declining production the last couple of seasons and put up .221 .273 .673 OPS 86 OPS+ 0.8 WAR. Can't see someone wanting this guy.

Guillermo Heredia - Arb eligible in 2020, FA in 2023.  Put up .236 .318 . 661 OPS 87 OPS+ -0.1 WAR.  Going into his age 28 season...no value.

Robinson Cano - Signed through 2023 at $24 million per season, will be 40 when contract is over.  Missed half the season after being busted for PED's.  His last few seasons have been up and down (6.4 WAR in 2014, 3.4 WAR in 2015, 7.3 WAR in 2016, 3.4 WAR in 2017, 3.2 WAR for 80 games in 2018).  Looks like he could still be productive but is old, expensive and has baggage.  Would likely have to be given away with cash if Dipoto wanted to move him.

Ben Gamel - Arb eligible in 2020, FA in 2023.  Put up .269 .331 .723 OPS 100 OPS+ 1.3 WAR in total with Seattle as a part-time starter.  Has some value but, at age 27, he won't bring you back much.

Mike Leake - Signed through 2020 at $16 mil and $15 mil respectively with Mutual Option of $18 mil in 2021 with $5 million buyout. Since being acquired by Seattle, he has put up 4.09 ERA 1.263 WHIP 100 ERA+.  Could probably move him to someone like NYY or BOS at the deadline when they are trying to buff up their rotation depth but can't imagine they much for him.

Wade LeBlanc - Signed a cheap extension through 2022, all essentially yearly team options.   He was effective and cheap but he's also 34.  won't get much.

James Paxton - Arb eligible in 2019, FA in 2021.  When healthy he can be dominant but health is not certain.  Still, he's talented, cheap, and just turned 30 today so someone can pick him up for three years of service time and possibly benefit and M's could get some decent prospects.

Basically, their "firesale" looks to be Segura and Paxton.

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Just looking at the roster, who exactly is both moveable and actually net something of value in a trade:

Dee Gordon - Signed through 2020 at $27.1 million over those two seasons.  Has a $14 million team option in 2021 with a $1 million buyout.  He put up .268 .288 .637 OPS 79 OPS+, only walked 9 times (!) in 588 plate appearances 30/12 in SB/CS.  He's pretty bad.  He's have to be given away for nothing with Seattle eating some salary.  He'll likely stay.

Ryon Healy - Not yet arb eligible and will not be a FA until 2023.  Hit .235 .277 .688 OPS 91 OPS+ - 0.6 WAR.  For a 1B, that's pretty bad.  Might get something but not much.

Mike Zunino - Arb eligible in 2019, FA in 2021.  Seems to be a good defensive catcher who has power but regress to .201 .259 .669 OPS after some good offensive numbers in 2017/2018.  They could get something but not much.

Jean Segura - Signed through 2022 at $14.85 Million per season, 2023 Team Option for 2023 $17 million with $1 Million buyout.  Hit .304 .341 .755 OPS 1112 OPS+ 20/11 SB/CS 4.3 WAR.  Definitely moveable...signed through his prime years has been highly productive his last three seasons.  Might be their biggest chip.

Kyle Seager - Signed through 2021 at $19.5, $19.5, and 18.5 respectively with a 2022 $15 mil team option (that could increase to $20 mil) and a buyout that could range from $0 - $3 million.  Has seen declining production the last couple of seasons and put up .221 .273 .673 OPS 86 OPS+ 0.8 WAR. Can't see someone wanting this guy.

Guillermo Heredia - Arb eligible in 2020, FA in 2023.  Put up .236 .318 . 661 OPS 87 OPS+ -0.1 WAR.  Going into his age 28 season...no value.

Robinson Cano - Signed through 2023 at $24 million per season, will be 40 when contract is over.  Missed half the season after being busted for PED's.  His last few seasons have been up and down (6.4 WAR in 2014, 3.4 WAR in 2015, 7.3 WAR in 2016, 3.4 WAR in 2017, 3.2 WAR for 80 games in 2018).  Looks like he could still be productive but is old, expensive and has baggage.  Would likely have to be given away with cash if Dipoto wanted to move him.

Ben Gamel - Arb eligible in 2020, FA in 2023.  Put up .269 .331 .723 OPS 100 OPS+ 1.3 WAR in total with Seattle as a part-time starter.  Has some value but, at age 27, he won't bring you back much.

Mike Leake - Signed through 2020 at $16 mil and $15 mil respectively with Mutual Option of $18 mil in 2021 with $5 million buyout. Since being acquired by Seattle, he has put up 4.09 ERA 1.263 WHIP 100 ERA+.  Could probably move him to someone like NYY or BOS at the deadline when they are trying to buff up their rotation depth but can't imagine they much for him.

Wade LeBlanc - Signed a cheap extension through 2022, all essentially yearly team options.   He was effective and cheap but he's also 34.  won't get much.

James Paxton - Arb eligible in 2019, FA in 2021.  When healthy he can be dominant but health is not certain.  Still, he's talented, cheap, and just turned 30 today so someone can pick him up for three years of service time and possibly benefit and M's could get some decent prospects.

Basically, their "firesale" looks to be Segura and Paxton.

 

 

 

Assuming that they are, in fact, holding on to Haniger, Diaz, and Gonzalez.

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3 hours ago, floplag said:

God DiPoto did his job well there didnt he?
Absolutely gutted the farm, not left with a non competitive ML roster that i just looked at and had very little interest in.

Wait what farm did we have that DiPoto gutted?

I'm fine with trading anyone on the Mariners. Even Haniger, Diaz and Gonzales.

Watching October baseball every year makes me realize how not even close we are (or anyone other than the Astros) in the AL West is to being a top team. Burn it down.

Ya'll are trolls saying DiPoto fucked the M's .... we've been fucked since 2001. But keep following your narratives.

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8 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Would rather keep Pujols, and let him retire with the $59 million owed him after 2019.   Who knows what Cano will bring, especially after being suspended, and being 36.   It's time to prepare to get much younger at 1B.

Pujols is not retiring before his contract ends. Stop with this nonsense. It won't happen. I would much rather have Cano then Pujols not even close. Younger and better I have no care at all about steroid use or being suspended. Hell if he gets suspended he doesn't get the money. I wish Pujols would and get suspended for 3 years we'd save a lot of cash. 

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5 minutes ago, Ender said:

Wait what farm did we have that DiPoto gutted?

I'm fine with trading anyone on the Mariners. Even Haniger, Diaz and Gonzales.

Watching October baseball every year makes me realize how not even close we are (or anyone other than the Astros) in the AL West is to being a top team. Burn it down.

True the farm wasn't spectacular, but dropping into the bottom few 3 years running really hurts after a while (John Sickels rankings):

2015 Rank: 17th

<< Jerry Hired 9/2015>>

2016 Rank 26th

2017 Rank 23rd

2018 Rank 29th

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