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Brian Dozier?


totdprods

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I've rarely seen his name come up in any posts so far about this winter. Obviously, his 2018 season sucked - .215/.305/.391/.696, OPS+ of 88 - yet he still managed 1 WAR, and his defense wasn't terrible. Three years' prior, he averaged .258/.335/.496/.831, 122 OPS+ (Justin Upton is a career 121 OPS+) with 35 doubles, 35 homers, 15 SB, and 60+ walks, averaging 4-5 WAR. 

He's only played 2B, but spotting some time at 1B/3B at his age wouldn't seem unreasonable. 

Heyman's prediction piece had him getting 1/$6-9m, MLBTR's has 1/$10m. Worth the gamble?

FWIW...
His BAbip was a career low last season (.240 vs. .277 since he became a full-time hitter, 2nd season)
His strikeout % last year was 20.4% - three year's prior? 20.3%. 
BB% was 11.1% last year - the exact same as 2017, and higher than '15-'16 when he posted 8.8%
XBH dipped - 8.4%, after peaking at 10.5% his three years' prior. Still above MLB average of 7.7%.
His strikes looking went up 3%, his strikes swining went down 2%

My take is he's starting to lose some power, and opposing pitchers were much more willing to attack him than in years past.
Other than that, a lot of his metrics for the past several years, even last season, are exceptionally consistent.
I think he's regressing, but BAbip affected him last year, and he likely was challenged for the first time in several years.
He's been consistently good enough as a hitter though, there may be hope he makes some changes and rebounds this year.

Even in the midst of an awful season, the Twins were able to nab a couple decent, intriguing prospects for him (LAD's #19 prospect) so even if he has just a decent bounceback, the Angels may be able to flip him for something useful too.

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17 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

No thank you. Looked overmatched with the Dodgers last season and is only going to get older.

His BAbip with the Dodgers hinted at even more bad fortune - it was only .196. Which is going to result in an awful batting average.

Otherwise, as a Dodger, his other numbers averaged out to 162 games would have equaled....
32 doubles, 18 homers, a career -high 83 walks, and a career low 114 strikeouts.

Good power and good discipline still. Keep in mind, he never really hit for a high average to begin with.

I'll go on record saying I think Dozier has a solid rebound season in '19. He will not approach his peak - he may not even break 20 HR - but the discipline and doubles power will come back. Maybe .250/.330/.420/.750, 30 doubles, 15 homers, 70 walks. For 1/$7.5m, that's pretty good.

He was an absolute monster as recently as 2016-2017 - nearly 40 HRs, over 30 doubles, 70 walks, an OBP of .350, and an OPS+ of 130, stealing 17 bases. 

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19 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Would have a Danny Espinosa feel to it....maybe not that drastic a drop off but he appears to be trending in the wrong direction....

Not that I feel he’s the solution, but his K% is level, his walks actually trended up. His power trends did decline.

The BA dipped, but was it the result of bad luck, which his BAbip indicates, or a true regression? Could go either way, but not all of his indicators are flashing red.

He feels like a solid option as a bat-first roll of the dice, but I totally agree - he needs to come cheaply and perhaps after more reliable options are ruled out.

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34 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

He falls into the wait and see pool for me.  Could be a value play.  

On a minor league contract only. Right now the Angels cannot be interested in high volitilty players that swing one way or another. They've burned too much cash in Espinoza and Valbuena, it's time to either pay for a solid player or use the minor league if the ups and downs aren't a concern. I'd rather see Rengifo and Fletcher than Brian EspiDozer eating payroll and not out performing either in house players.

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40 minutes ago, Blarg said:

On a minor league contract only. Right now the Angels cannot be interested in high volitilty players that swing one way or another. They've burned too much cash in Espinoza and Valbuena, it's time to either pay for a solid player or use the minor league if the ups and downs aren't a concern. I'd rather see Rengifo and Fletcher than Brian EspiDozer eating payroll and not out performing either in house players.

I actually meant more for 1b/3b.  I like our 2b options for the future.  But I want some sort of bat to backup Cozart/Pujols.  

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7 hours ago, Second Base said:

In a world where I can argue that Daniel Murphy makes perfect sense for the Angels, so does Dozier.  My own predictions were pretty darn random to begin with.  I think I guessed the Angels get Kikucki, Eovaldi and Brian McCann. 

Murphy makes no sense when you have more important priorities.

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22 hours ago, HaloNArizona said:

I'd still rather sign Moustakas, and let Fletch and Cozart battle for starting 2Bman and Util IF.

Still the most sensible thing to me....if Moustakas is willing to play some 1b and the price is reasonable....

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