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2019 Steamer projections...


Inside Pitch

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https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

Mike Trout has reached the point where the projections no longer underestimate what he can do.    Andrelton Simmons is a star -- and four Angels hitters projected to rank in the top 100...  the fourth one isn't who you'd expect and a guy you probably would expect to rank in the top 100 just missed (Upton at 115).   Kole and David Fletcher (1.9 fWAR), make the top 150.

Fletcher, Doc, a few others have all gone on record as the offense not being as bad as people think -- Steamer is making the same argument.

So, as has been said -- add some arms.

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3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Not to create a spoiler, but yes the 4th was a little surprising to a degree, well see
This is why i dont see where we are as a rebuild, we have some very good parts in place if we just add some around them.

Definitely is...   And if you looked at the numbers -- they aren't expecting him to really go apeshit offensively.

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5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

they're giving him a ton of credit as if he were playing a different position.  

Yep - he's getting points on defense too.  I'm not a fan of Moustakas and his limp OBP skills... but if the numbers being talked about, 2/16-19 are legit...   It's not a bad play to put him at 3B -- have Cozart at 2B and see what happens.   I think the defense likely translates better at 2B than at 3B for Cozart.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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18 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yep - he's getting points on defense too.  I'm not a fan of Moustakas and his limp OBP skills... but if the numbers being talked about, 2/16-19 are legit...   It's not a bad play to put him at 3B -- have Cozart at 2B and see what happens.   I think the defense likely translates better at 2B than at 3B for Cozart.

If it counts for anything, I'm told Cozart at 3B was always meant to be a one year thing, the Angels wanted to sign him to be their second baseman in the first place. So in all likelihood, the Angels will be pursuing a 3B that fills in at 1B every once in a while. Sure sounds like Moose to me, but I haven't done my homework on the trade market. 

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34 minutes ago, Second Base said:

If it counts for anything, I'm told Cozart at 3B was always meant to be a one year thing, the Angels wanted to sign him to be their second baseman in the first place. So in all likelihood, the Angels will be pursuing a 3B that fills in at 1B every once in a while. Sure sounds like Moose to me, but I haven't done my homework on the trade market. 

As you well know - I've not been on the Moustakas bandwagon and I've made the reasons pretty clear.  But if everyone and their brother now sees that low OBP as a negative and the value is down -- then, that's the time you try to get him.   He's gone from being massively overrated to potentially underappreciated because of his warts.   Basically he's become Garrett Anderson, the corner IF version.    It all comes down to $$$

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  • 2 weeks later...

I like these projections, but I do think they give Cozart a lot of credit for his defense. That being said, I also think the defensive infield including Cozart, Simmons, and Fletcher as to be one of the best in the league defensively.

They're also low on Ohtani and Simmons offensively, and a little low on Trout, but not too much.

I doubt Pujols plays more than 108 games at 1st. That would be a lot, basically 4 days a week in a 6 game week, which means 30 DH starts, which drops Ohtani to 125. I think Ohtani gets 135 games as the DH. Pujols gets once a week. He also plays 3-4 days a week at 1st. That leaves a 3-day a week 1st base spot, and I don't see who they have taking it, unless it's Calhoun and then Fletcher is getting games in the OF.

Which is why someone like Marwin Gonzalez makes sense, as he can play 1st, 2nd, 3rd (in a pinch), and all three OF spots. I think he's the kind of guy they go after, and at a 9M average, he fits the budget in the short and long terms.

And I think Ward gets more games.

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I like these projections, but I do think they give Cozart a lot of credit for his defense. That being said, I also think the defensive infield including Cozart, Simmons, and Fletcher as to be one of the best in the league defensively.

They're also low on Ohtani and Simmons offensively, and a little low on Trout, but not too much.

I doubt Pujols plays more than 108 games at 1st. That would be a lot, basically 4 days a week in a 6 game week, which means 30 DH starts, which drops Ohtani to 125. I think Ohtani gets 135 games as the DH. Pujols gets once a week. He also plays 3-4 days a week at 1st. That leaves a 3-day a week 1st base spot, and I don't see who they have taking it, unless it's Calhoun and then Fletcher is getting games in the OF.

Which is why someone like Marwin Gonzalez makes sense, as he can play 1st, 2nd, 3rd (in a pinch), and all three OF spots. I think he's the kind of guy they go after, and at a 9M average, he fits the budget in the short and long terms.

And I think Ward gets more games.

 

 

 

 

 

projections i saw on Marwin Gonzales were closer to 14, if he falls as low as 9, jump on that yesterday.  

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23 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Steamer is crazy, if they think Pujols is playing close to 140 games at 1B/DH.    He only played 117 games in 2017, and looked mediocre before the injury.

Steamer, Zips, PECOTA -- doesn't matter which projection system -- they all see the biggest variance at the two extreme ends of the age spectrum when it comes to playing time/performance.   With young guys it's because the comps are so very much all over the place. and with old guys is because they likely put too great an emphasis on their track records.   None of these systems do a very good job of predicting a pending implosion or a guy suddenly breaking out into a star.

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1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Steamer, Zips, PECOTA -- doesn't matter which projection system -- they all see the biggest variance at the two extreme ends of the age spectrum when it comes to playing time/performance.   With young guys it's because the comps are so very much all over the place. and with old guys is because they likely put too great an emphasis on their track records.   None of these systems do a very good job of predicting a pending implosion or a guy suddenly breaking out into a star.

That's just what I thought.. if I actually had a thought.  On second thought, I might be over thinking this.  Then again... what?

I see "Steamer" and all I can think of is Stanley Steamer.  I'm just simple folk.

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24 minutes ago, True Grich said:

That's just what I thought.. if I actually had a thought.  On second thought, I might be over thinking this.  Then again... what?

I see "Steamer" and all I can think of is Stanley Steamer.  I'm just simple folk.

Could be worse -- you could be thinking Cleveland....

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4 hours ago, Hubs said:

I like these projections, but I do think they give Cozart a lot of credit for his defense. That being said, I also think the defensive infield including Cozart, Simmons, and Fletcher as to be one of the best in the league defensively.

They're also low on Ohtani and Simmons offensively, and a little low on Trout, but not too much.

I doubt Pujols plays more than 108 games at 1st. That would be a lot, basically 4 days a week in a 6 game week, which means 30 DH starts, which drops Ohtani to 125. I think Ohtani gets 135 games as the DH. Pujols gets once a week. He also plays 3-4 days a week at 1st. That leaves a 3-day a week 1st base spot, and I don't see who they have taking it, unless it's Calhoun and then Fletcher is getting games in the OF.

Which is why someone like Marwin Gonzalez makes sense, as he can play 1st, 2nd, 3rd (in a pinch), and all three OF spots. I think he's the kind of guy they go after, and at a 9M average, he fits the budget in the short and long terms.

And I think Ward gets more games.

JMF and Ward.  Maybe Walsh, but I doubt it.  

I think we'll grab a starter and then see what happens.  

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