OC Register: Angels Offseason Options: Lance Lynn

[Docwaukee]

32 minutes ago, floplag said:

You assume, as usual, that i dont get it.  I do.    I simply see it differently based on available resources to address the overall issues the team has given our roster composition.

THIS was the problem.    We had 16 different guys make starts for us last year, not counting a couple so-called bullpen games and we're talking what, 12-14 actual SP?  Not having to go that deep on the depth chart would make more difference than 4 wins.   

In my mind, lessening the reliance on SP makes more sense given our roster composition and available resources to address our overall problems.   I've said this many times, i don't now how to make that any clearer.   

seriously not trying to be a smartass, but what does this mean?  that we improve everything else instead and just go with what we've got at SP?  Like beefing up the pen and offense to overcome any of the SP deficiencies?  

[floplag]

Since its relevant, i read an article posted by Heyman predicting the FA contracts from Fancred.
https://fancredsports.com/Articles/inside-baseball-predicting-the-deals-for-131-of

This predicts the following relevant players from these discussions as follows, the "Me" is Heymans prediction:
Corbin:  Expert: 5 years, $17M per, $85M. Me: 5 years, $20M per, $100M.
Eovaldi:  Expert: 4 years, $16M per, $64M. Me: 3 years, $15M per, $45M.
McCutcheon:  Expert: 4 years, $15M per, $60M. Me: 3 years, $13M per, $39M.
Marwin Gonzalez:  Expert: 4 years, $14M per, $56M. Me: 4 years, $13M, $52M.
Mike Moustakas:  Expert: 4 years, $13M, $52M. Me: 3 years, $14M, $42M.
Yasmani Grandal:  Expert: 3 years, $13M per, $39M. Me: 2 years, $10M per, $20M
Gio Gonzalez:  Expert: 3 years, $11M, $33M. Me: 3 years, $10M, $30M.
Charlie Morton:  1 year, $17 M. Me: $17.9M QO.
Lance Lynn:   Expert: 2 years, $8.5M, $17M. Me: 2 years, $8M a year, $16M.
Wilson Ramos:  Expert: 1 year, $10M. Me: 1 year, $9M.
Garrett Richards:  Expert: 2 years, $4.5M per, $9 M (TJ surgery). Me: 2 years, $5M per, $10M.

Reminder, we have approx 30M to spend. 

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

seriously not trying to be a smartass, but what does this mean?  that we improve everything else instead and just go with what we've got at SP?  Like beefing up the pen and offense to overcome any of the SP deficiencies?  

I think he means doing it the same way the Rays did. 

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

seriously not trying to be a smartass, but what does this mean?  that we improve everything else instead and just go with what we've got at SP?  Like beefing up the pen and offense to overcome any of the SP deficiencies?  

In short, yes, though its slightly over simplifying as you have to take into account the overall roster composition and its needs as well as available resources that go into it.
Getting 2 quality SP will leave virtually nothing left to address C, 1B, bullpen or anything else of substance.
Thats not be being anti-SP, its me being realistic about our available resources and needs.   We have depth at SP even if none are aces, we have none at other spots.
Now of course trades change it some, if we are willing to part with what it would take to get clear upgrades, most here are not and over value prospects as much as they value SP.   Im not knocking that per se, but its not a solution that helps us short term. 
My goal is to be competitive in 2019, not 2022.  We arent going to do that with the offense we ended 2018 with. 

[floplag]

9 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think he means doing it the same way the Rays did. 

im not basing on what any other team has done, im basing it on our needs, and resources available to address them in order to be competitive in 2019.  
There are of course some similarities to what other teams have done, but thats not the basis of the position.

I simply don't see a realistic model that we sign 2 FA SP, and address our other needs without losing key prospects, the pieces of that puzzle simply don't fit to me.  Epp is obviously a better GM than i am, perhaps he will surprise me, and noone would be happier than me if he does. 

[totdprods]

Personally, I'm expecting both a signing of a SP, a trade for a SP, and likely a ST invite for someone like a Phil Hughes/Francisco Liriano/Miguel Gonzalez-type.

I just think circumstances are too ripe for there not to be a trade for a SP, and the FA SP pool is too deep, so we'll see both.

[Stradling]

If we have $30 million to add you can add Gio Gonzales at about $10 million, Donaldson at about $15 million and Kurt Suzuki at about $3 million.  Then if you choose to relinquish the rights to a couple of arb guys and save yourself $5 million more you could add a guy like Kelly at $8 million.  It gives you a solid starter that can eat some innings, a $15 lotto ticket that could give you a 2 WAR season or could give you a 5 WAR season that could play 3rd base and bat 2nd-5th.  If you don’t like him you could allocate that money to McCutchen and use Kole as the 4th outfielder/1b platoon.  It gives you a big upgrade at catcher with a .330 OBP and it gives you a very good relief pitcher that is a local boy.  

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

If we have $30 million to add you can add Gio Gonzales at about $10 million, Donaldson at about $15 million and Kurt Suzuki at about $3 million.  Then if you choose to relinquish the rights to a couple of arb guys and save yourself $5 million more you could add a guy like Kelly at $8 million.  It gives you a solid starter that can eat some innings, a $15 lotto ticket that could give you a 2 WAR season or could give you a 5 WAR season that could play 3rd base and bat 2nd-5th.  If you don’t like him you could allocate that money to McCutchen and use Kole as the 4th outfielder/1b platoon.  It gives you a big upgrade at catcher with a .330 OBP and it gives you a very good relief pitcher that is a local boy.  

A possibility sure, though i cant say i would allocate half the funds to Donaldson.  Too much about him scares me at this point to do that in my opinion.  
Though i thank you for putting it in its full context

Ill say this though, Sonny Gray suddenly looks more appealing pending prospect cost.

[Angel Oracle]

Is it feasible to roll the dice and pay Eovaldi $15 million/season, given that he's only pitched 245 innings over the past 3 seasons?   That is a big risk to take. 

All of the pitchers discussed over the past month have somewhat major warts.

It's hard to say which one to sign, and which one to trade for, at this point. 

Eppler will certainly earn his salary this off-season, as he has for the past 3 years, some tough decisions to make.

 

[Docwaukee]

54 minutes ago, floplag said:

In short, yes, though its slightly over simplifying as you have to take into account the overall roster composition and its needs as well as available resources that go into it.
Getting 2 quality SP will leave virtually nothing left to address C, 1B, bullpen or anything else of substance.
Thats not be being anti-SP, its me being realistic about our available resources and needs.   We have depth at SP even if none are aces, we have none at other spots.
Now of course trades change it some, if we are willing to part with what it would take to get clear upgrades, most here are not and over value prospects as much as they value SP.   Im not knocking that per se, but its not a solution that helps us short term. 
My goal is to be competitive in 2019, not 2022.  We arent going to do that with the offense we ended 2018 with. 

I'm a lot more worried about our SP depth than you are.  Especially after I dug deep into the numbers of what those 9 players of 'depth' did last year.  Richards is injured and a free agent and Ohtani won't be pitching in 2019.  That's two less depth pieces than from last year.  Right now, our rotation would be Heaney (most innings he's ever pitched and injury history), Skaggs (most innings hes pitched while being on and off the DL with shoulder issues),  Barria (22, pitched his most innings ever and outpitched his peripherals), Shoemaker (made 7 start. he's either good to go or he's not), Pena (converted back to starter.  threw about 125ip last year.  second most since he was at AA in 2015)

Depth pieces are Trop (can't stay healthy), and two rookies in Canning and Suarez.  Taylor Cole should be in the pen.  JC is on the shelf.  McGuire stinks.  There's a couple other minor leaguers who could contribute.  

That rotation terrifies me and actually lacks meaningful depth in my opinion.  

When we talk about roster construction and having $30 mil to spend, we have to be realistic in that Kole is going to be the RFer.  They're not going to spend 10.5 mil for him to sit on the bench.  Cozart is going to be a starter for the same reasons.  They're not going to replace Pujols although they will likely add a bat that can split time at first and cover 3b and maybe 2b.  That leaves two potential upgrades with a still decent chance that the other two guys will be black holes we can't do anything about.  

I want to win the division in 2019 too but since we only have 30 mil to spend, the farm system outlay to make that happen would be considerable.  Now, if being competitive means vying for a wild card then I think we are in the ballpark, but what I don't want to do is give up a bunch of prospects when our chances aren't that great yet.  If there's a Simmons type of deal out there where we don't give up Adell or Canning and we get a guy that is controlled for the next 4-5 years then I think we should consider it.  I just don't want to spend valuable currency for guy who's only controlled for 2.  

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Is it feasible to roll the dice and pay Eovaldi $15 million/season, given that he's only pitched 245 innings over the past 3 seasons?   That is a big risk to take. 

All of the pitchers discussed over the past month have somewhat major warts.

It's hard to say which one to sign, and which one to trade for, at this point. 

Eppler will certainly earn his salary this off-season, as he has for the past 3 years, some tough decisions to make.

Those innings were limited due to TJS though. 

That said, I did just read his most recent TJS was his second already. Which is a little concerning. Off the top of my head, I think most pitchers who have two TJS, wind up being at much higher risk for a third...

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

Since its relevant, i read an article posted by Heyman predicting the FA contracts from Fancred.
https://fancredsports.com/Articles/inside-baseball-predicting-the-deals-for-131-of

This predicts the following relevant players from these discussions as follows, the "Me" is Heymans prediction:
Corbin:  Expert: 5 years, $17M per, $85M. Me: 5 years, $20M per, $100M.
Eovaldi:  Expert: 4 years, $16M per, $64M. Me: 3 years, $15M per, $45M.
McCutcheon:  Expert: 4 years, $15M per, $60M. Me: 3 years, $13M per, $39M.
Marwin Gonzalez:  Expert: 4 years, $14M per, $56M. Me: 4 years, $13M, $52M.
Mike Moustakas:  Expert: 4 years, $13M, $52M. Me: 3 years, $14M, $42M.
Yasmani Grandal:  Expert: 3 years, $13M per, $39M. Me: 2 years, $10M per, $20M
Gio Gonzalez:  Expert: 3 years, $11M, $33M. Me: 3 years, $10M, $30M.
Charlie Morton:  1 year, $17 M. Me: $17.9M QO.
Lance Lynn:   Expert: 2 years, $8.5M, $17M. Me: 2 years, $8M a year, $16M.
Wilson Ramos:  Expert: 1 year, $10M. Me: 1 year, $9M.
Garrett Richards:  Expert: 2 years, $4.5M per, $9 M (TJ surgery). Me: 2 years, $5M per, $10M.

Reminder, we have approx 30M to spend. 

Eovaldi at 15M per, Trade for Sonny Gray at 9M per, 13M per for Andrew McCutchen, and 9M for Wilson Ramos = Division Contender.

Granted that's 46M so you'd need to cut somewhere to make it all fit.

But realistically you could do 12M for Eovaldi in 19, 15 in 20, and 18 in 21, to get the Heyman Contract. That's the same AAV but it's structured to pay out less. Even 9M in 2019, 15 in 20 and 18 in 21 with a 3M signing for tax purposes.

Same for McCutchen at 10/13/16. That cuts the payout to 40.

Non-tender Tropeano, Ramirez, Shoemaker among the other expected cuts, get Shoemaker back on an incentive laden deal and 2M salary, and Ramirez back on league minimum with a 5M club option on 2020. (I expect him out the entire season). That would get you close to 35. Sign Sonny Gray to a 2 year deal paying 6M this year and a mutual option for 14 or so next year with a 3M buyout and you save yourself another 3.

Bottom line is that's doable. And it adds two bats and two arms.

 

[Docwaukee]

49 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If we have $30 million to add you can add Gio Gonzales at about $10 million, Donaldson at about $15 million and Kurt Suzuki at about $3 million.  Then if you choose to relinquish the rights to a couple of arb guys and save yourself $5 million more you could add a guy like Kelly at $8 million.  It gives you a solid starter that can eat some innings, a $15 lotto ticket that could give you a 2 WAR season or could give you a 5 WAR season that could play 3rd base and bat 2nd-5th.  If you don’t like him you could allocate that money to McCutchen and use Kole as the 4th outfielder/1b platoon.  It gives you a big upgrade at catcher with a .330 OBP and it gives you a very good relief pitcher that is a local boy.  

this is a reasonable template although I wouldn't spend $8 mil on kelly and I don't think Eppler will either.  

I think we'll grab starter pretty early and then feel the market out.  I'm liking the idea of Suzuki more and more.  I am always hopeful that some prices will drop and Arte will extend a little for guys on some 1yr deals.  

[Hubs]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

That rotation terrifies me and actually lacks meaningful depth in my opinion.  

When we talk about roster construction and having $30 mil to spend, we have to be realistic in that Kole is going to be the RFer.  They're not going to spend 10.5 mil for him to sit on the bench.  Cozart is going to be a starter for the same reasons.  They're not going to replace Pujols although they will likely add a bat that can split time at first and cover 3b and maybe 2b.  That leaves two potential upgrades with a still decent chance that the other two guys will be black holes we can't do anything about. 

It's why I want to trade for Gray and Realmuto. Both will cost $15M or so. I'd try to keep three of the top 5 prospects in Adell, Canning, and Jones, but know that Thaiss and Marsh are probably moved in those trades.

And that's ok. Adding Eovaldi and McCutchen makes The Rotation and Lineup then look like this:

1. McCutchen

2. Trout

3. Ohtani

4. Upton

5. Realmuto

6. Pujols/Calhoun

7. Simmons

8. Cozart/Fletcher

9. Fletcher/Ward

Your Bench is Calhoun, Ward, Briceno/Smith, and another OF/Inf at times like Fernandez or Hermosillo.

 

Your Rotation is

Heaney

Eovaldi

Gray

Skaggs

Shoemaker/Barria

6th = Pena

 

Your Pen is

Buttrey

Parker

Alvarez

Bedrosian

Cole

Robles

Anderson

 

 

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

Suzuki could be a solid acquisition for 110 games/season for the next 2-3 seasons.   Handles pitching staffs well, and hits well enough.  

Main concern is the lack of CS%.

[Docwaukee]

If we spend 13m per on an outfielder for more than a year, I would be absolutely astounded.  Even for a year, I would be very very surprised.  I think our 4th OFer is going to cost about 2-3 mil if they don't just give the job to Herm.  The latter being unlikely.  

[totdprods]

Three other trade target pitchers worth watching are Julio Teheran, Kyle Gibson, and Tanner Roark. 
2019 will be walk years for all three - Teheran does have an option - and they'll all cost quite a bit in arbitration. 

Eppler has had a tendency to deal with ATL and WAS quite a bit as well, and it just so happens both of those teams may lose their RF in FA (Markakis, Harper) so in theory, I could see the teams interested in swapping the salaries of those SP and Kole, depending on the other sweeteners and offseason plans. 

While the Halos might not save money, they would fill a need in the rotation, would not have Calhoun's salary on the books, and could pursue a more stable RF vet option until Adell arrives. McCutchen is great, but I could see Adam Jones, Markakis, Brantley, Chisenhall, Pollock, as options too, as well as a repeat of the Nava/Gentry experiment with guys like Jay, Maybin, Guyer, Gomez. 

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'm a lot more worried about our SP depth than you are.  Especially after I dug deep into the numbers of what those 9 players of 'depth' did last year.  Richards is injured and a free agent and Ohtani won't be pitching in 2019.  That's two less depth pieces than from last year.  Right now, our rotation would be Heaney (most innings he's ever pitched and injury history), Skaggs (most innings hes pitched while being on and off the DL with shoulder issues),  Barria (22, pitched his most innings ever and outpitched his peripherals), Shoemaker (made 7 start. he's either good to go or he's not), Pena (converted back to starter.  threw about 125ip last year.  second most since he was at AA in 2015)

Depth pieces are Trop (can't stay healthy), and two rookies in Canning and Suarez.  Taylor Cole should be in the pen.  JC is on the shelf.  McGuire stinks.  There's a couple other minor leaguers who could contribute.  

That rotation terrifies me and actually lacks meaningful depth in my opinion.  

When we talk about roster construction and having $30 mil to spend, we have to be realistic in that Kole is going to be the RFer.  They're not going to spend 10.5 mil for him to sit on the bench.  Cozart is going to be a starter for the same reasons.  They're not going to replace Pujols although they will likely add a bat that can split time at first and cover 3b and maybe 2b.  That leaves two potential upgrades with a still decent chance that the other two guys will be black holes we can't do anything about.  

I want to win the division in 2019 too but since we only have 30 mil to spend, the farm system outlay to make that happen would be considerable.  Now, if being competitive means vying for a wild card then I think we are in the ballpark, but what I don't want to do is give up a bunch of prospects when our chances aren't that great yet.  If there's a Simmons type of deal out there where we don't give up Adell or Canning and we get a guy that is controlled for the next 4-5 years then I think we should consider it.  I just don't want to spend valuable currency for guy who's only controlled for 2.  

This may surprise you, but I agree on most of your summary of the SP.  However, this is also exactly why i dont see one or two guys at the top being that significant.  In my mind it doesnt change the problem the other 60-80% of the time as opposed to lessening its impact 100% of days.   

Having a lockdown pen has more impact every day in my view.  If someone is having an off day you simply get them out of there, short leashes.   Ask them to go 5-6, maybe twice thru the lineup, and ask the pen to do the rest.  Can be had for far less then the cost of even one of these quality starters and this saves money to be used elsewhere.

As for what i would do, ill put that over in the plan thread to avoid de-railing this one any futher than i already have. 

[wopphil]

I'd like to see them spend more than 30 mil. Go all in for the next two seasons. Guys like Donaldson, Gio, McCutchen, Andrew Miller and Daniel Murphy can possibly be acquired on two year deals. They would all be upgrades. You can non tender some deadweight to make the money work (e.g., Shoemaker, Bedrosian, JC Ramirez, Meyer).

[Hubs]

2 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I'd like to see them spend more than 30 mil. Go all in for the next two seasons. Guys like Donaldson, Gio, McCutchen, Andrew Miller and Daniel Murphy can possibly be acquired on two year deals. They would all be upgrades. You can non tender some deadweight to make the money work (e.g., Shoemaker, Bedrosian, JC Ramirez, Meyer).

Meyer makes nothing and has options, so non-tendering him doesn't save much, but I agree with the rest of your post!

[aznhockeyguy]

Would like to see the Angels sign Lance Lynn.  Solid dependable #3 starter for the Angels for 2-3 years 6-9 mil per.  Would put up better numbers with the better defense the Angels have and ballpark I'd like to think.

[Docwaukee]

still think that with the addition of White, the pitchers we sign this offseason are going to be head scratchers.  Like Matt Harvey, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill.  

don't shoot me.  just a hunch.  

[totdprods]

30 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

still think that with the addition of White, the pitchers we sign this offseason are going to be head scratchers.  Like Matt Harvey, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill.  

don't shoot me.  just a hunch.  

Still a good chance any of those help the back of the rotation. A couple of those guys could profile well in relief/multi-inning roles too. 
James Shields is the name that I keep feeling is inevitable. He's my hunch - not my choice.

FWIW, he still put up 1.4 WAR last year (more than Lynn) and ate up 200+ innings, 50 more than Lynn. He'll be dirt cheap and his numbers still beat the horror show I posted at the start of the thread, and he's about as good as a SP could be for 32 GS/200+ IP in this day and age.

32 GS, 200 IP, 4.75 ERA. Really not hard hard to believe that any of Lance Lynn, Marco Estrada, Jeremy Hellickson, or James Shields end with that line, so I'd try and nab whomever is cheapest. Not sure it's worth paying $5m more and a second year for Lance Lynn for only a marginal chance he outperforms that line significantly.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Story I heard when the Angels were in AZ was that Corbin grew up near NY as a Yankees fan and wants to pitch for them. They need SPs and obviously will not be outbid, so he’s gonna be tough. 

And if the Red Sox want Eovaldi back, I think it’d be tough to pry him away too. 

[wopphil]

What about Keuchel? We dont discuss him much, perhaps because we assume he will be overpaid. But he is a guy who can eat innings, has been above average 4 out of the last 5 years, and is only 30. If his price tag is somewhere in the range of 4/60, he might be a decent option.