OC Register: Angels Offseason Options: Mike Moustakas

[Dtwncbad]

10 hours ago, True Grich said:

I'm not giving up on Ward just yet.

I am having a hard time believing in his swing.  Seems long and soft. (Insert joke here)

[totdprods]

If Moustakas doesn’t cost too much, and is willing to play some 1B, I actually think he is a perfect fit, and makes even more sense now than he did last offseason, when his asking price was sky high, his value was hard to pin down, and he came with the cost of a pick. 

Its pretty safe to say he’d be a steady .750ish OPS guy for foreseeable future; .250/.320/.430, 15-20 HR.

I’d wager that isn’t far from what we’d reasonably hope Ward or Thaiss to put up in ‘19, either of whom immediately become trade bait for a SP should we sign Moose. So what’s the better value? That money spent on Moose instead of SP, and using prospects to fill that need, or vice versa, keeping the prospects, skipping Moose, and signing a pitcher?

He gives us a lot of depth too. If Pujols goes down, he’s about as good as you could get for an in-season replacement. If Ohtani starts late or is hurt, you still have some lefty pop. If Cozart continues to be a glove only guy, you have Moose’s bat to counter it. If Fletcher truly is a UT IF and not a starting 2B, you have Cozart there for now and Moose at 3B. He is a pretty good contingency plan for many different scenarios and that boosts his value to the Angels.

FWIW, I think if either Ward or Thaiss pan out with a Moustakas-esque offensive career, that’s still a pretty good outcome for them.

[eaterfan]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

If Moustakas doesn’t cost too much, and is willing to play some 1B, I actually think he is a perfect fit, and makes even more sense now than he did last offseason, when his asking price was sky high, his value was hard to pin down, and he came with the cost of a pick. 

Its pretty safe to say he’d be a steady .750ish OPS guy for foreseeable future; .250/.320/.430, 15-20 HR.

I’d wager that isn’t far from what we’d reasonably hope Ward or Thaiss to put up in ‘19, either of whom immediately become trade bait for a SP should we sign Moose. So what’s the better value? That money spent on Moose instead of SP, and using prospects to fill that need, or vice versa, keeping the prospects, skipping Moose, and signing a pitcher?

He gives us a lot of depth too. If Pujols goes down, he’s about as good as you could get for an in-season replacement. If Ohtani starts late or is hurt, you still have some lefty pop. If Cozart continues to be a glove only guy, you have Moose’s bat to counter it. If Fletcher truly is a UT IF and not a starting 2B, you have Cozart there for now and Moose at 3B. He is a pretty good contingency plan for many different scenarios and that boosts his value to the Angels.

FWIW, I think if either Ward or Thaiss pan out with a Moustakas-esque offensive career, that’s still a pretty good outcome for them.

I don't think that's an accurate projection. Moustakas is not a .320 OBP guy. He's had an OBP of .320+ once in his whole career. He hasn't done it in the last 3 seasons. He's getting older and I don't think that OBP is going to improve. 

He could be a bargain if he gets a contract like last year. And it's good that he doesn't cost a draft pick.

But realistically for the next year or two he's probably a .305 - .315 OBP guy who hits 20 - 28 HRs.  His OPS+ will probably be about 110-115. Hopefully, he is able to play a passable 3B. I really don't want those numbers at 1B. 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, eaterfan said:

I don't think that's an accurate projection. Moustakas is not a .320 OBP guy. He's had an OBP of .320+ once in his whole career. He hasn't done it in the last 3 seasons. He's getting older and I don't think that OBP is going to improve. 

Moustakas' OBP last three (full) seasons...
2015: .348
2017: .314
2018: .315

Maybe he isn't a .320 OBP guy, but .315 isn't really that different. A couple walks?
He's not exactly at an age where his discipline is going to crater either, and in fact, as I mentioned, he might actually improve a bit with Trout, Ohtani, Upton, and Simmons all likely hitting better than him. My theory is that he changed his approach in KC a couple years back and started swinging for the fences in order to fill the MOTO role. He wouldn't quite be expected to do that here. 

I also sold him a little short with a .430 SLG projection - his last three (full) seasons went .428, .521, .459, so even if you want to quibble over .005 different in OBP, we're still looking at probably a .750 OPS hitter, OPS+ a touch over league average, 105-110 I'd guess. 

He's essentially replacing the production of, or taking at-bats from, this field of hitters we've had recently:
Marte, Cozart, Cowart, Fletcher, Ward, Fernandez, Valbuena, Marte, Cron, and Pujols.
The cumulative line those guys produced? .229/.287/.378/.665, an OPS+ of 82. 

Moose's .250/.315/.435/.750, OPS+ even if its around 100-105, is a good step up, and he'd serve as a very solid contingency for any number of scenarios as I detailed. 

But I agree - it comes down to his cost, and what you'd rather spend money on. Is that money better spent on pitching?
Or is it better for his presence to loosen up Thaiss/Ward into trade bait for that pitcher?