OC Register: Angels Offseason Options: Mike Moustakas

[Broad Street]

42 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I don't see any reason the Brewers would bring back Moustakas instead of Shaw. And I don't think Hernan Perez is that good. He seems like a non-tender candidate.

Perez may not have the OBP that is desired, but he's played everywhere except pitcher/catcher. Hard to find super-utility guys who can play all infield/outfield positions.

[arch stanton]

If you want a Perez level talent why not just keep Cowart?

[Broad Street]

3 hours ago, arch stanton said:

If you want a Perez level talent why not just keep Cowart?

Because Perez can actually hit the ball, where's Cowart has shown he cannot. Is Perez starting material? No, but he'd be cheap and cover a lot of positions for us on the bench.

[kevinb]

6 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I'm sure Billy Eppler would like to have an All-Star at every position too, but that's not realistic. You have to look at what your resources are and prioritize.

He knows a lot more about his position player prospects than any of us do.

Where did I say all star at every positon??? Quote me? This team has 3.5 black holes in the infield and 1 in the outfield. Never said sign an all star at every positon but I like being told I did wonder if that’s how you get quotes? But having more of an answer than just question marks in 5 of the spots in the line up would be nice. 

[Angel Oracle]

If the Halos signed Moose, likely numbers = .240/.300/.400/.700, with the luck the Halos have had with past FA signings.   Might as well go with Cozart at 3B.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

Where did I say all star at every positon??? Quote me? This team has 3.5 black holes in the infield and 1 in the outfield. Never said sign an all star at every positon but I like being told I did wonder if that’s how you get quotes? But having more of an answer than just question marks in 5 of the spots in the line up would be nice. 

Geez, don't be so sensitive. 

I never said you used the word All-Star. All I meant is that you can't get always get what you want at every position. 

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Kevinb said:

Where did I say all star at every positon??? Quote me? This team has 3.5 black holes in the infield and 1 in the outfield. Never said sign an all star at every positon but I like being told I did wonder if that’s how you get quotes? But having more of an answer than just question marks in 5 of the spots in the line up would be nice. 

4.5 black holes? Yeah, no.  Nice try, though (aside from the part where, y’know, it isn’t).

[arch stanton]

5 hours ago, Kody Mac said:

Because Perez can actually hit the ball, where's Cowart has shown he cannot. Is Perez starting material? No, but he'd be cheap and cover a lot of positions for us on the bench.

I have to disagree with your definition of actual hitting ability

[ten ocho recon scout]

21 hours ago, Blarg said:

Much to agents and players dismay, all of the stats about age regression is working against guys that passed the 30 year old mark and looking for long term deals.

The economy of player value has gotten to the point where the big dollar free agents like Machado and Harper is still there simply because of how many quality years of service you are buying. After a player hits his early 30's clubs are going to look internal or via trade if the years outweigh the return.

Donaldson has no hope of a five year deal after already showing regression both in playing time and production.  Even a three year deal would be high risk at this point. Other than being a quick boost to the Angels for one or two seasons he really isn't a team building solution. He's that guy you buy when the team has that one hole left to fill. 

Slightly off topic, but how will the union respond? Limit the club control of young players?

[Broad Street]

10 hours ago, arch stanton said:

I have to disagree with your definition of actual hitting ability

Compared to Cowart he's an all-star. He's hitting over .250 the last 4 seasons. I don't think we're going to get a bench piece hitting more than .300 if that's what you want.

[Broad Street]

If Moose signs with the Braves (rumor) I wonder if Charlie Culbertson will be available? He was worth 1.5 WAR for the Braves, under contract till 2022, and can play multiple positions. I wouldn't look at him as an every day starter, but he could fill that utility position and free up Cozart for a trade.

[kevinb]

16 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Geez, don't be so sensitive. 

I never said you used the word All-Star. All I meant is that you can't get always get what you want at every position. 

Not sensitive but you’ve made this argument a couple times. I don’t see anyone calling for an all star at every position at least none that I’ve seen. But truly we have a zero at first base with Pujols which the team can’t get rid of because of the contract I understand. 2nd base is either Fletcher who has absolute no power and really doesn’t walk but batted 275. Or Cozart who hit 219 last year will be a year older and coming off an injury. Let’s call that maybe a half a player since we don’t know. Third is either Cozart which he didn’t play great there or Ward? Who hit a solid 174. Catcher which who knows what’s going on there. And Calhoun in right which had a month plus on a tear but overall has a mid 600 ops. So that’s 4.5 complete question marks in the line up. Getting just average bats in those spots would be incredible. If one or two of them were above average we’d be sitting pretty trying to compete for the division title which is all I want for the team I root for to try and compete for a division title the rest will sort itself out. 

[kevinb]

16 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

4.5 black holes? Yeah, no.  Nice try, though (aside from the part where, y’know, it isn’t).

See above

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

Not sensitive but you’ve made this argument a couple times. I don’t see anyone calling for an all star at every position at least none that I’ve seen. But truly we have a zero at first base with Pujols which the team can’t get rid of because of the contract I understand. 2nd base is either Fletcher who has absolute no power and really doesn’t walk but batted 275. Or Cozart who hit 219 last year will be a year older and coming off an injury. Let’s call that maybe a half a player since we don’t know. Third is either Cozart which he didn’t play great there or Ward? Who hit a solid 174. Catcher which who knows what’s going on there. And Calhoun in right which had a month plus on a tear but overall has a mid 600 ops. So that’s 4.5 complete question marks in the line up. Getting just average bats in those spots would be incredible. If one or two of them were above average we’d be sitting pretty trying to compete for the division title which is all I want for the team I root for to try and compete for a division title the rest will sort itself out. 

We will need an awful lot more than a couple more above average players to become a division title contender.   I do admit it’s a start.   I just don’t see us competing with the Astros with a Jed Lawrie and Josh Donaldson signings.  Two above average players that would really help a ton, but we need those two, plus Eovaldi, Gio, Kelly, Suzuki and for Kole to be good Kole.  Then after all that we need health.  That being said, a wild card is possible and once you’re in anything can happen.   

[Docwaukee]

Every team has some holes in their lineup. 

Red Sox
C - 40. 30th
2b - 75.  27th
3b - 85. 25th

Indians
1b - 95.  23rd
2b - 79. 22nd
RF - 95. 21st
CF - 76. 26th

Brewers
C - 76. 21st
2b - 78. 27th
SS - 63. 30th

Rockies
C - 63.  27th
1b - 80.  28th
2b - 78. 26th
RF - 93. 24th
LF - 76. 18th

Angels ranks
C - 74.  22nd
1b - 77. 29th
2b - 86. 20th
SS - 102. 10th
2b - 78. 30th
RF - 75. 29th
CF - 171.  1st
LF - 116.  11th
DH - 130. 2nd

We definitely have at least 4 and close to 5 spots that were really bad.  I think we can improve to somewhere around avg or at least out of the bottom 3rd at 2b (cozart), 3b (fletcher), and RF (rebound from Kole).  So if we can get more out of Catcher and 1b then we're good.  I think we still end up with at least 2 spots that are bottom 10 in that I think C won't be great and I think Cozart isn't going to be very good.  I think we'll get more out of Kole and Fletcher next year.  
 

 

[T.G.]

I'm not giving up on Ward just yet.

[Jeff Fletcher]

41 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

Not sensitive but you’ve made this argument a couple times. I don’t see anyone calling for an all star at every position at least none that I’ve seen. But truly we have a zero at first base with Pujols which the team can’t get rid of because of the contract I understand. 2nd base is either Fletcher who has absolute no power and really doesn’t walk but batted 275. Or Cozart who hit 219 last year will be a year older and coming off an injury. Let’s call that maybe a half a player since we don’t know. Third is either Cozart which he didn’t play great there or Ward? Who hit a solid 174. Catcher which who knows what’s going on there. And Calhoun in right which had a month plus on a tear but overall has a mid 600 ops. So that’s 4.5 complete question marks in the line up. Getting just average bats in those spots would be incredible. If one or two of them were above average we’d be sitting pretty trying to compete for the division title which is all I want for the team I root for to try and compete for a division title the rest will sort itself out. 

1B: Pujols had a .700 OPS last year. The ML average is .771. If Pujols does the same thing and they can combine him with someone who will put up a .780 or .790, that moves them closer.

2B: Fletcher had a .678 OPS. The ML average is .714. Between Fletcher or Cozart (if he doesn't play 3B) or Rengifo, they very well could manage a .714. Not a huge jump.

3B: Cozart had a .658 OPS last year in 1/3 of a season. His career OPS is .711, last 3 years .796. MLB average: .764

C : The catchers combined for a .628 OPS. MLB average: .678. This is their biggest area of need (as Eppler would admit) because there are no Fletchers/Wards/Rengifos around to help. On the other hand, you can always punt one position. You know what team had the worst production at C this year in the majors? The Red Sox.

RF: Calhoun had a .652 OPS. If you believe that Calhoun 2.0, with his new swing, was a legitimate different person, that guy had an .800 OPS. Of if you want to go by his last 3 years, he has a .725 OPS. MLB average: .768. I certainly think, based on Calhoun 2.0, it's reasonable to think he can manage .768, and even if he's below, he also plays well above average defense. Add the defense and offense and Calhoun probably only needs a .740 OPS to be an average major league RF.

Even if all of that adds up to still below average...

Trout: 1.088. MLB avg: .727 (Plus, you figure to get one more month of Trout, instead of Hermosillo/Blash/EYoung, if he stays healthy)

Upton: .808 (last 3 years .828). MLB avg: .765

Ohtani: .925. MLB avg: .774 (plus, you figure to get another 250 PAs of him instead of Valbuena, Marte, Fernandez)

Simmons: .754. MLB avg: .733.

As an offense alone, the Angels only need to get those 5 "black holes," as you call them, within shouting distance of average. Even if they're still a little below average, the overall offense will be above because of the core players.

[Docwaukee]

35 minutes ago, Stradling said:

We will need an awful lot more than a couple more above average players to become a division title contender.   I do admit it’s a start.   I just don’t see us competing with the Astros with a Jed Lawrie and Josh Donaldson signings.  Two above average players that would really help a ton, but we need those two, plus Eovaldi, Gio, Kelly, Suzuki and for Kole to be good Kole.  Then after all that we need health.  That being said, a wild card is possible and once you’re in anything can happen.   

agreed. 

I am warming on Suzuki as a cheaper option that would be good defensively and hit decently. 

I don't think we'll get a pen arm at all.  Eppler will dance with who he brought aside from his usual foray into the minor league FA pool and waiver wire.  We might spend 2-3 here.  

On the pitching side, I'd like to grab kikuchi and maybe one more guy like Gio as well as some projects on minor league FA contracts.

I think Kole will rebound but I don't have a ton of confidence in Cozart.

We definitely need someone who has a solid bat to platoon and 1b and potentially limit the number of AB's Albert will get  

Likely doesn't leave enough to sign a Josh Donaldson type but it would be a nice add imo if he healthy and only costs about 10m.  It would displace fletcher to a util role and if Cozart falters, Fletcher could shift in full time and Cozart moves to Util.  

To be truly competitive in 2019, I think we'd need to add about 55 mil (kikuchi 16m, Gio 10m, Donaldson 10m, Suzuki 5m, pen 3m, Descalso 6m, Jay 5m) if we didn't want to give up any prospects to improve the team.  Problem is, we only have about 30m.  So Donaldson, Suzuki, the pen money and probably Jay are out which would leave around 32m in additions.  They could get that down a bit through their arb offers.  

Personally, I'd rather see them stretch payroll to 40m so they could add Suzuki and Jay without tapping into the farm system.  

[Docwaukee]

20 minutes ago, True Grich said:

I'm not giving up on Ward just yet.

nor am I.  I think his peak season will actually be pretty good but that could be 3 years from now when he's 28-31.  In the meantime, I think it'll be a pretty slow progression until he figures it out.  Granted, he could very well surprise all of us.  He certainly did that this year. 

[GrittyVeterans]

8 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

1B: Pujols had a .700 OPS last year. The ML average is .771. If Pujols does the same thing and they can combine him with someone who will put up a .780 or .790, that moves them closer.

2B: Fletcher had a .678 OPS. The ML average is .714. Between Fletcher or Cozart (if he doesn't play 3B) or Rengifo, they very well could manage a .714. Not a huge jump.

3B: Cozart had a .658 OPS last year in 1/3 of a season. His career OPS is .711, last 3 years .796. MLB average: .764

C : The catchers combined for a .628 OPS. MLB average: .678. This is their biggest area of need (as Eppler would admit) because there are no Fletchers/Wards/Rengifos around to help. On the other hand, you can always punt one position. You know what team had the worst production at C this year in the majors? The Red Sox.

RF: Calhoun had a .652 OPS. If you believe that Calhoun 2.0, with his new swing, was a legitimate different person, that guy had an .800 OPS. Of if you want to go by his last 3 years, he has a .725 OPS. MLB average: .768. I certainly think, based on Calhoun 2.0, it's reasonable to think he can manage .768, and even if he's below, he also plays well above average defense. Add the defense and offense and Calhoun probably only needs a .740 OPS to be an average major league RF.

Even if all of that adds up to still below average...

Trout: 1.088. MLB avg: .727 (Plus, you figure to get one more month of Trout, instead of Hermosillo/Blash/EYoung, if he stays healthy)

Upton: .808 (last 3 years .828). MLB avg: .765

Ohtani: .925. MLB avg: .774 (plus, you figure to get another 250 PAs of him instead of Valbuena, Marte, Fernandez)

Simmons: .754. MLB avg: .733.

As an offense alone, the Angels only need to get those 5 "black holes," as you call them, within shouting distance of average. Even if they're still a little below average, the overall offense will be above because of the core players.

Is the plan seriously to hope and pray Pujols repeats his dreadful season last year instead of declining further? 

 

Good lord, I'll lose a lot of faith in Billy Eppler if that is the case..

[Jeff Fletcher]

5 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Is the plan seriously to hope and pray Pujols repeats his dreadful season last year instead of declining further? 

 

Good lord, I'll lose a lot of faith in Billy Eppler if that is the case..

I think the plan is to get someone else who can share the job with him, so if/when he gets injured./gets worse they have someone else who can fill the void. 

That's why every single infielder I've done in my series is someone who could play 1B. I can't see them adding anyone who can't play 1B.

[GrittyVeterans]

8 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think the plan is to get someone else who can share the job with him, so if/when he gets injured./gets worse they have someone else who can fill the void. 

That's why every single infielder I've done in my series is someone who could play 1B. I can't see them adding anyone who can't play 1B.

Okay well that reassures me a little...at least they are trying to improve that position slightly

[Pancake Bear]

2 hours ago, Kevinb said:

Not sensitive but you’ve made this argument a couple times. I don’t see anyone calling for an all star at every position at least none that I’ve seen. But truly we have a zero at first base with Pujols which the team can’t get rid of because of the contract I understand. 2nd base is either Fletcher who has absolute no power and really doesn’t walk but batted 275. Or Cozart who hit 219 last year will be a year older and coming off an injury. Let’s call that maybe a half a player since we don’t know. Third is either Cozart which he didn’t play great there or Ward? Who hit a solid 174. Catcher which who knows what’s going on there. And Calhoun in right which had a month plus on a tear but overall has a mid 600 ops. So that’s 4.5 complete question marks in the line up. Getting just average bats in those spots would be incredible. If one or two of them were above average we’d be sitting pretty trying to compete for the division title which is all I want for the team I root for to try and compete for a division title the rest will sort itself out. 

Fletcher already kind of covered this, but I'll throw my two cents in: 

RF: Whether this is a black hole or not is irrelevant - we aren't filling it with anything other than a stop-gap in 2019. Calhoun's pre/post swing change numbers are so sharp (even with a bit of a decline again at year's end) that we don't have enough information to say Calhoun is or isn't fine in RF. The least we can say is that we have multiple internal options that there's pretty much no chance they grab anything other than a platoon partner/4th OF guy. 

It is fair to say RF was essentially a black hole in 2018 (28th), but it does not at all follow that it will be in 2019. 

1B: Similar to RF, nothing major will happen here. Pujols isn't retiring before ST, nor is he going to be bought out before then; and with Pujols/Ohtani(!) on the roster, we don't have roster flexibility for a serious move. They will either stick with in-system options or, like Fletcher pointed out, grab someone who can play 1B in addition to other positions. 

3B: Like the previous two positions, 3B qualified as a black hole for the Angels in 2018 (24th - 28th at 1B and RF). It's getting ahead of things to characterize it as a black hole for 2019, though. Sure, Cozart struggled, but so do a lot of guys their first year in Anaheim. Ward could be the guy, too - he hasn't had enough time to prove it one way or another.

Could we stand a clear upgrade in these spots? Sure, but unless we're going to blow up the payroll or destroy the system, it's best to figure out whether any of the in-house options might work (in a year that, like the last couple, is basically a 'We'll compete if the bounces go our way' season). The other 2 spots were not black holes in 2018 by any objective measure, and it's incredibly premature to argue that they will be in 2019. 

2B: The Angels ranked 9th at 2B this season - a combination of Kinsler and Fletcher. It's fair to point out that they were weak offensively (23rd), but they were far and away #1 defensively. You may consider that a black hole; I do not. It's plain that the Angels FO does not. Can the offense improve at 2B? Hopefully. But we could do worse than Fletcher for 140+ games. We also have other options. Point is, calling it a potential black-hole spot, like every other position so far, is simply not accurate.

The Angels ranked 15th at C in 2018. Not great, not terrible. They were around 19th offensively. Maldonado led the way at 26th among C, but also played substantially more than any of the oth guys on the team. Briceno/Rivera were both quite respectable for catchers, offensively with a 91/90 wRC+ (Kevan Smith had a 104 wRC+ in 187 PA for 2018).

We could upgrade at C, but generally that isn't a great plan given how catcher skills tend to deteriorate quicker and more sharply than other position players. 

IMO, 2019 is the year to find out what we've got at those positions. We've got the best CF in baseball, Simmons was 3rd at SS (still ranked 9th among qualified SS in offense), Upton was 6th offensively in LF (9th overall among LF and 22nd among OF generally), and Ohtani ranked 3rd among DH's, despite putting up barely more than half the PA of the two guys above him (eyeballing it, he was only slightly less productive than JD Martinez this season, and substantially above MVP candidate (LOL) Khris Davis).

So, to sum up: Four positions of between above average and elite production with no reason to expect any immediate major dropoffs in production. Three positions that were awful in 2018, but with uncertainty for their status in 2019 (can't get much worse!). Two positions that were a mixed bag - hopefully they improve (or, in the case of 2B, stays at least consistent). 

So, no, we don't have 4.5 black holes. We may, but counting those spots already out is based on no real evidence and giving no chance for someone like Calhoun to put up solid production in-house - that's the way championship teams are built. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Suzuki 5m, pen 3m, Descalso 6m, Jay 5m)

You're high on the three position players here.

More like Suzuki 3, Descalso 3, Jay 2.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

You're high on the three position players here.

More like Suzuki 3, Descalso 3, Jay 2.

maybe on Jay.  I think there's going to be more activity on Suzuki and Descalso than expected.  Suzuki because of the swing change that led to recent success and Descalso for the reasons that you mentioned which will include some saber slobbering.  (you like that?  I just made it up)